ThejacKmp

This offseason I hope the Twins take a wait-and-see approach at catcher, in spite of the temptation to do something drastic. I'm comfortable running JRM and Centeno out there in a platoon to start the season and giving Garver at least a half season in AAA for a bit more seasoning. JRM and Centeno have a nice lefty-righty thing so the Twins can hopefully get some offense from the position. They also get a chance to see if JRM is the guy who hit well with the Yankees or the guy that was awful for the Twins in 2016. They can also see if Centeno is a guy who is going to throw up a .700 OPS like last year (and thus a nice backup catcher since he hits lefty) or if that was a fluke. If Garver doesn't have setbacks he'll be ready mid-season and provide a nice boost behind the plate.

Cray to dfa Gibson and crazy to think that the way to think about this is, "will this player be on the next great twins team". For the latter, we should be looking at if guys have value; if wimmers has a good year would he have trade value? You don't give players away because they don't fit your timeline. For the former, same thing, you don't give away players. Gibson has low value now but is a year removed from a nice season. It's not like the twins have tons of starting pitchers ho need time in the majors. Gibson needs another season to see if he can bounce back before you think about releasing him. If that happens he becomes a trade chip if your pitchers develop and a part of the rotation if they don't.

Disagree on it being boring and predictable - I just think that so much of what is going on is impossible for the lay person to understand. It takes a coach to see what is going on. Take just one part of the two sports: defense. In baseball, there's a basic defensive formation that teams rarely move from. Even when they do, it's pretty simple - they're shifting or they're bringing the infield in. You can explain baseball defense to a 9 year old in 20 minutes pretty readily. And when you're watching, it's easy for an announcer to look at the game and tell us "Okay, The Twins are playing corner infielders in and the middle infield is at double play depth". The average fan has a clear concept of what that means and why they're doing it. A football defensive formation has insane subtleties - where the strong safety lines up changes everything about a play. And that's just one player - add in the middle linebacker and we've got a whole new set of variables. The issue is that the defense shifts things so many times and the action moves quickly enough that we rarely get to even begin to understand what is going on. I'm a pretty decent football fan and my knowledge is basically the difference between the 4-3 and the 3-4, what a double A gap blitz is (but not really any of the variations), press coverage and what the Tampa 2 generally tries to do. None of that allows me to meaningfully discuss the Vikings defense other than to say, "Man, that defense is good. It has good players. It has good schemes. It is good." Cris Collinsworth does a great job on Sunday night football of shedding a bit of light on this - he can't do it every play but when he gets a chance out of a break he can really show you what the teams did. And there's a guy on VJ (can't remember) who breaks down plays with GIFs (this week it was Joseph's effect on running plays) that is pretty good. So good content can be done but it takes someone with a lot of time and knowledge to do so. That's pretty different from baseball. If you give me an hour and a topic, I can put together something pretty meaningful with some decent stats to try to explain something. And people who comment on my hypothetical baseball article can pretty easily find stats or related cases to drive a discussion that reaches 7 pages. Yeah we might get chippy but a lot of it will be very stats and case study drive. Most of the comments on even the good content on VJ is like "Awesome!" or "Great job, super informative!" Because what else can you say? The two sports are just different - it's hard to see the community on TD being transferred to VJ.

And I think the long-term plan at SS has to include Vielma and Gordon. Gordon is still a 2018 kind of guy but Vielma's glove is ready to play at a big league level; if he can hit .240 it might be the best option. The Twins have more options than Escobar or Polanco.

Love Twins Daily. My view of Vikings Journal has been that it lacks good content and rarely has enough of it. That isn't helped that the comments sections are rarely entertaining to read - no one making an argument or starting a discussion. Maybe it's due to the basic difference between baseball and football? Baseball's stats make it easier for an everyday fan to make an argument and playing everyday keeps stories going. Football is significantly harder to understand and there's only 16-20 games a year.

That's not the dream scenario. Mauer still has value (not $23 million value but you're paying that anyways). His OBP is still pretty close to elite and has value on a young Twins team that hits a lot of home runs and strikes out a lot. The dream scenario is that the Twins work Vargas/Mauer/Park in a true platoon at 1B/DH. As Vargas is a switch-hitter, the Twins can play two righties against lefties and two lefties against righties and have a nice bench bat for late in games. There's no one coming up who Mauer would be blocking (unless you want Palka at 1B I guess) and you'd be using Mauer at his best. He'd still play 120 games and likely be fresher.

At least this team was watchable for most of the year. Some of the teams from 2011-2014 were borderline unwatchable. There was always something worth checking in for and actually, a lot of the young hitters had relatively positive seasons. Buxton struggled but ended strong. Kepler had his amazing week and held his own. Rosario fell back to earth but rebounded enough that you can see a future for him with the club. Kennys Vargas is in much better prospect shape than I expected. Sano didn't have the insane year we hoped for but that was a nice sophomore slump year. Yeah these guys have to take a step next year but that's the way it is with young guys. People had too high of expectations for this year and will likely have too low of expectations for next year. Last year's Twins were a smoke and mirrors playoff contender but this year's Twins are better than a 103 loss team. I'm excited for next year. So excited that last night I was trying to find a way to bet $20 in Vegas on the Twins as 2017 World Series champs. I figured the odds had to be spectacular :-)

There are two #29s. This may be a 51 person list?

This doesn't make sense? Can you explain further? I think the Twins have much higher hopes for Berrios than Santiago, a guy who likely should not be tendered his last year of arbitration. And I'm positive that his ceiling is higher than current day Kyle Gibson. Basically any starting pitcher who was ranked in the top 30 on Baseball America's prospect list after last season has a higher ceiling than Kyle Gibson by definition. He's 22. His minor league stats are impressive. He's 22. Maybe he won't pan out and maybe he will but it's ludicrously early to be calling his ceiling a #4/#5 starter.

I love that guys in the 50-41 range are legitimately exciting. Bodes well.

It's really too bad they're going to get nothing for him. The Twins are like that guy who has to get rid of his old two seat muscle car because kids are coming along. The muscle car is nice but it's not a Corvette (maybe a Datsun?) and it's in rough shape - needs some work to keep her running. He keeps holding onto it even though he can't really drive it because he wants to find someone else who will value it and he knows that for the right person, she could be really nice. But alas, its no good and he ends up selling it because he needs the garage space for the SUV. I've been hoping the Twins could deal Plouffe for something nice because he has some skills that could fit another team. That fit just never materialized and now it's time to clear some garage space.

That's just crazy talk. Mauer put up a 117 SPS+ against right handed pitching this year. That is above average and right handed pitching represents 75% of at bats. He should be rested against lefties more regularly but to say he is only a bench bat and nothing more shows a disconnect with reality.

See I don't see how 2018 is a problem either. Unless Sano can't play 3B at all and needs to DH or someone pushes his way up who needs PT in addition to Vargas and Park (and I can't think of one - Lewis Diaz is at least two years away and Palka seems to have a role as a 4th or 5th OF), you're always going to be able to run out a 3 man platoon at DH and 1B. Heck, if Joe is okay with platooning, I don't see any reason that he can't sign another (smaller) contract with the Twins after 2018 when he's 35. He's going to have value as veteran left-handed bat with great OBP and if he wants to stay around the game, he certainly can have a decent-sized role. Now obviously Vargas could become a star who needs to play every day and Sano could need to move to 1B/DH at 25 instead of 28 so this isn't set in stone but barring that, it's going to take someone exceptional coming up the pipeline at 1B/DH for Mauer to become useless.

I really hope that Berrios isn't Scott Erickson. Yeah 1991 was sweet and Erickson had a 15 year career but it was pretty disappointing when all was said and done. P.S. Looking at 1991 Cy Young Race. The Twins had the #2, #4 and #7 pitchers in the Cy Young voting that year. That is awesome but it's also weird that the Angels had the #3, #5 and #6 pitchers - it went Clemens, Twin, Angel, Twin, Angel, Angel, Twin. Strangest still, Kevin Tapani got a first place vote and I don't think anyone would argue he was more than the 3rd best pitcher on that team.

He's 22. Take your happy pill and look at his minor league stats. He's just young.

Yeah, Hill would need a pretty crazy offer to not go to the Dodgers and it seems unlikely he's interested in a rebuild, even if its a potentially short rebuild. You'd have to go 3 years $60 mill+ and hope the Dodgers don't go right along. And that's if you think he's worth it (I don't, too old, too many injuries). This above is why the Twins should trade Ervin this offseason. It seems counterintuitive for competitiveness but Santana is not likely to be a Twins during their next reign of dominance (anything but the most optimistic scenarios shows the Twins looking at 2018 and beyond while Santana is likely gone after 2018). He's got the potential to fetch some very nice prospects from a team that wants to win now, looks at the free agent market and cringes at the length of deals and lack of quality. (e.g. a Cubs/Nats/Dodgers team that disappoints this offseason, a Red Sox team weak on pitching, an Orioles/Jays/Tiggers/Royals team that sees it's window starting to close) Santana for 2 years is a godsend for a team that doesn't want to sign a big deal but wants an impact #3 type starter. The Twins can run out Berrios/May/Santiago/Gibson/Duffey/Meija/Hughes in 2017 and wait for Gonsalves/Jorge/Romero and whoever they get in a Santana deal (and maybe Dozier deal) to be ready in early-to-mid 2018.

The other pitcher is Rich Hill. I want to emphasize that I don't think the Twins should sign him (or any of the above for more than a 1 year filler deal) but he is an unrestricted free agent and should be near the top of any list. If you were going to gamble on a long-term deal this offseason, that's where I'd go. The warts are clear - Hill is 36 and has been injury prone in the past and during this year - but we can't deny that he has had a really nice year when healthy. He's pitched 105 innings with a 10.7K/9, 2.05 ERA and 2.53 FIP. Would I want to bet he'll do that in the future and stay healthy? No way Jose. But at least there's upside if you went 3 years $55 million. He's a potential ace pitcher in a year where no one else has that upside. Tons of risk but at least there's a potential reward? I wouldn't make the move but I wouldn't be insanely upset if the Twins did.

People always get hung up because, "You're paying $23 million for half a player" but if you're the LH side of a platoon, you're playing 75-80% of the time. And who wouldn't love to see Mauer back to hitting .300 as he gets some more breathers and faces mostly RH pitching? Plus, Mauer becomes a really nice bench weapon in late-inning games - most closers are RH and Mauer's elite OBP plays well for getting on base and changing the complexion of a ninth inning. The 75% does suggest the only real argument against my plan (that doesn't involve Plouffe staying) which is that you perhaps stunt Park's development since he'll only be playing every third day or so. That is a fair criticism but Park is a 30 year old guy so I'm not worried about breaking him or losing tons of value. He'll be useful in his role and ready to step in for a longer look if Mauer or Vargas gets hurt (which seems like a not-unlikely thing given their age and size/athleticism). And if he struggles ABW can pretty easily take his place.

Especially if he's used more sparingly and mostly against RHs. His splits this year were .793 vs. RHP and .610 against LHP. That's a one-year departure from his generally even splits in years past but it's not crazy to think that as he gets older that split might get more pronounced. Mauer/Park/Vargas playing in a platoon at DH/1B still gets Mauer 120 starts (75% of starts are by RHP). He rests against lefties, Vargas gets the 150 he likely needs if this September is a harbinger of good things to come and Park gets 20-60 and is a nice bench bat (ditto for Mauer in the other 40 starts). Really not crazy to think that using Mauer smarter would result in a .800+ OPS. He'd be healthier and in a better position to succeed.

Makes no sense to get rid of Mauer unless the new GM is crazy and holds onto Plouffe*. Then you have a log jam. Otherwise you have Sano at 3B and Mauer, Park and Vargas at 1B/DH. ABW and Palka profile as 4th OFers when they come up halfway through 2017 so I'm removing them from the 1B/DH discussion. (A.) I don't think Vargas has shown enough for you to be certain he's going to be better than this year's version of Joe (who had a very low BABIP compared to his career so there may be improvement). He might be but it hasn't been proven. (B.) I know Park hasn't shown enough. He may be a guy who figures it out year 2 but he's done little this year to give you enough faith he'll be ready next year that you'd do something drastic with Mauer. (C.) Even if they both were ready, using Mauer/Vargas/Park in tandem at 1B/DH makes a lot of sense. Vargas is a switch-hitter so you can get two lefties or two righties in the lineup and have a nice pinch-hit option on the bench. Mauer has struggled against lefties more this year than in years past so giving him some days off would help the Twins and help him stay healthier. As an aside, I think the biggest "hey let's think outside the box" avenue would be to get Mauer a bit of time at 3B this offseason. He likely won't be incredibly good but let's be honest, Sano isn't winning Gold Gloves anytime soon. Mauer has the arm if not the range to be okay at 3B. If he could be a serviceable backup 3B, that would be useful. * Can't emphasize enough how much Plouffe needs to go. Mauer is signed anyways and at least provides something (OBP) that the Twins don't have in spades. Plouffe provides nothing that isn't made redundant by the Vargi and Parki of the system and he costs $10 million. If they can flip him for a bag of balls, great. Otherwise, he's an eminently replaceable player. Very excited there's a new GM who won't have emotional ties to Plouffe.

I dunno, hard to say that a guy needs a more high leverage role and suddenly he'll be just fine. That's like me asking for a raise at work because if I earned more money, I'd be less likely to sleep on the job. Tonkin can't pitch to lefties, he's not going to be a one-inning guy until he can do that. Time for him to solve things - blaming his role is putting the cart before the horse.

One of the 43 was hit while a pinch hitter so that's why the number quoted is 42. And Dozier has hit 38 as a 2B (2 as DH) so he has some work to do.

Agreed. It's not like hiring a coach where you can't interview the bench coach until his team is eliminated. These guys calendar of business does not really synch up with the playing calendar. Big times are before drafts and free agents - this is actually kind of a perfect time to look at guys in the front office since the dice has been cast and there's not too much left to do.

Are the Royals really the best rebuild to emulate? It took them ten years of utter feeble incompetence with numerous failed prospects and even when they put it together, it was a pretty near thing. Dayton Moore came pretty close to blowing that whole thing up with the risky Shields/Myers trade - if that doesn't work out and the Royals don't eke into the wild card game and go on a run in the playoffs, Moore is likely fired and the next guy comes in and blows things up. And the Cubs is another hard one to emulate because of an imbalance in the resources allows the Cubs to go pursue high level pitching in the free agent market, something the Pohlads are decidedly not going to do. I'm glad we're interviewing these guys but I hope we're not doing it because "the Royals won the World Series" and "we can emulate the Cubs model". I hope they're actually good baseball minds who can adapt to a new situation and come up with creative solutions to individual problems. I'm not ready for a Royals rebuild and I'm certain we aren't going to follow the Cubs model.

And you have the Giants leading their division when it is in fact the Dodgers. Major edits needed.