ThejacKmp

Shocked? Puig the last two years has a .258/.321/.411/.732 line while being a general knucklehead and giving a subpar effort in the field. Even though Rosario has struggled, he has a .261/.282/.441/.723 line while being a good teammate and being an engaged, productive defender. Grossman has a very small sample size but he’s .247/.370/.398/.768 over the past two years and is trending up, not sideways at best. Listen, Puig is clearly a better prospect with more upside. I would never argue against his potentially transcendent talent – he could be a perennial MVP candidate while Rosario’s ceiling is fringe All-Star and Grossman’s is above-average corner outfielder. In fact, I’ve agreed with Dave W that if we can get him for not much, it would be great (though I doubt the price involved). I just think we need to also note that the Twins just aren’t a good fit for him. He needs to be somewhere where there isn’t a better option so he has a long leash. If Puig is being lazy in the OF on a 1210 Wednesday game and acting the prima donna on the bench, how can a team like the Twins not put a hustling, uncomplaining player like Rosario out there in his place? How can they not give Grossman the 4th OF opportunities? We just aren’t a good fit for Puig, in spite of his huge potential. He would be an uneasy fit for the Twins and would be better off in a less murky situation.

It may be overblown in the cases you're talking about but that's not Puig's current situation. Being a pain can be okay but only if a guy produces. Barry Bonds was fine as long as he produced. Puig isn't an everyday player for the Dodgers. If you're the Cubs and you're looking at adding a bench bat and OF depth o, it matters if a guy brings baggage because there are so few positives to outweigh the negative. Conversely, a guy like Francouer who adds something significant by being a good bench guy is important because he is asked for so little. Similarly, if you are the Twins adding a 4th OF depth candidate to fight for a job, that good teammate bid matters. There are going to be waxes and wanes to playing time and you need a guy who can handle that. I disagree with any characterization of Hunter as a good teammate for that reason - he was always ready to complain in the media about playing time. (Also, he's a homophobic narcissist who slut shamed some high school girl to save his jock son from jail time but that's beside the point.) That's why it makes sense for Puig to go to a smaller market team where he can play every day. So not the Twins and not a contender like the Cubs but a team like the White Sox, Braves, Phillies etc. He gets a chance to play everyday, shed that likely-overblown reputation and perhaps recover that early-career magic. P.S. This is a side point but important to note. The Dodgers record the last two years has had little to do with Puig. Even if it did, it's still a bogus way to look at player achievement. The Twins record the last few years is not really based on Dozier alone. A baseball player is 1/25th of the team, not 1/8th or 1/9th like the NBA. I would never minimize Mike Trout by saying "look at the Angel's record".

Puig is definitely a better player, no questions. But Francouer is generally considered one of the better teammates around - there's a reason that the rebuilding Braves are considering keeping him even though he won't be a big part of the future. Puig at best is a mild distraction and at his worse can derail a team's focus. I'm with you on making a Puig deal if it isn't too costly (I don't think the Dodgers will sell as low as you think though) but there are reasons no contending team wants Puig now and many of them will check in on Francouer.

The issue for the Twins is you're moving him right back into a position where he's a 4th/5th OF fighting for plate appearances with Buxton/Kepler/Rosario/Grossman. And there's no chance he gets into the DH game since the Twins have Vargas raking and Park making a strong push from AAA. If Grossman is included (or Rosario in a larger deal) that eases it up a bit but it's still not an ideal spot. Better fit for him is the White Sox since Abreu is a Cuban vet and they have some space in the OF with Austin Jackson hurt (J.B. Shuck is not going to demand every day playing time) and a generally old-man OF going forward (Jackson-Eaton-Melky). I don't think Chris Sale is going anywhere but if he goes to the Dodgers, I imagine that Puig will be one of the guys involved in that.

I don't know about earliest. Most likely maybe and even that seems a stretch. Those guys will be in AAA for most of next year so I don't think it's crazy to think that one of them might earn a September 2017 call up or cause some stirring service time debates in spring training of 2018. By the start of 2018 there may be a ton of rotation spots open if Santana gets moved at deadline 2016/2017 (even if he doesn't go this year, he'll be a prime candidate next year with only one year left on the deal, making him a rental+), Nolasco/Milone are gone and Hughes has become a bullpen guy. I don't see the Twins going to get back in the free agent market in any serious way either. So you're looking at potentially making choices among Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, May, the May/Rogers/Wheeler types, maybe a vet and then the young guys. If any of Jay/Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart builds on this year they could be tapped to start 2018 or fill in for injuries in late 2017.

As Nick said, the Twins were out of options on Hermann. He would've had to be on the roster all year (or be lost for nothing) which means dumping Suzuki or not getting JRM. Though we may not love Suzuki or JRM, I think we can comfortably say we're happy the Twins took a shot on JRM (who still has multiple options left and is a much better prospect than Hermann) and are glad Suzuki is starting everyday instead of Hermann. The Twins got something for nothing and that something has turned out to be more exciting than we thought at the time. And no one has ignored Hermann's "revival". We've just correctly pointed out Small Sample Size and Past Performance and dismissed that a hot 145 at bats is relevant to deciding who wins a trade. The Twins had a below-replacement level catcher who they likely couldn't keep in the minors and who didn't warrant a guaranteed spot in the bigs and swapped him for an interesting outfield power bat prospect currently tearing it up in AAA. That's a pretty big win no matter how you look at it.

Ha. I was more saying from the point of view of a fan making it through those games. There was at least a month this year where every single reliever coming in made me cringe with the exception of Abad. For that month alone, he has been a great pickup.

Mediocre catchers are a dime a dozen. The difference between John Hicks, Juan Centeno and Chris Hermann is negligible. Endlessly complaining about minute decisions that make no real difference is actually crazy. John Hicks going was not a big deal. Chris Hermann being traded was not a big deal (except that the Twins actually got something interesting back). The Twins have had multiple catchers with the same set of skills and if the guys they currently have were hit by a bus, they could go find similar replacements relatively easily. This topic continues to be beaten to death. It's the weirdest thing in a super weird year on TD.

I would say this is an insane concept, Milone or Nolasco having any value but read this. If they can get anything for either one of those guys, hallelujah.

I want to cheer for McGuff in the majors. That name is gold.

1.) Chris Hermann = small sample size. He's never done this in the majors or the minors and it's in only 145 at bats. He's never profiled as even a decent backup catcher defensively. I'm ready to call it a win for the Twins even if Palka never pans out. Hermann had no place with the Twins going forward (especially with the JRM, Centeno and Hick deals - no one would have wanted Hermann over any of those guys this last offseason). Trading someone with Hermann's ground-level ceiling for anything decent is a good idea. 2.) It's time we stopped bemoaning John Hicks. You can sign a John Hicks caliber player in the offseason any time you want. The Twins have internal options in Centeno, Garver and JRM that are sufficient. Never has a bit player been so mourned as the case of the late John Hicks. 3.) Even if they never trade Abad he's been a great boon for this year. I shudder to think how much worse the dregs of the first half would have been without him. And while he hasn't been traded yet, I don't think it's crazy to say the Twins will deal him - he has to be the Twin most likely to be dealt. Even if we don't know the quality of prospect we get for him, something is always better than nothing. Especially when you consider that most people on TD wanted Bastardo/Sipp and we'd owe them $16 million over the next two years. Definitely a TR win.

He hasn't had a good enough year to get anything at the deadline. At this point he's just depth. But it wasn't crazy to think he could have a good/lucky start to the season and be moved if some twins minor league guys seemed ready. Didn't work out but the concept want awful. Hopefully those moves are based on scouting structures that go beyond one gm - they have guys they like in a list somewhere.

Agreed. I'm not sitting here saying that TR should still be there or is a genius. Just saying that it's naïve to say that TR wasn't skilled at finding talent outside of the draft. Every GM does some of it and TR is no exception. To those points: Tommy Milone got expensive but I'd still place him in the "well-done" pile as I'm confused why Oakland gave him away. With the way that starting pitching cost has escalated, it isn't until next year that it becomes a no-deal to pay Tommy Milone. He hasn't worked out too well this year but $4.5 million is a pretty cheap price to pay for back of the rotation left-handed depth. If he'd had a better start (and the Twins had better options) he could've been flipped for a minor prospect too. Not saying Tommy had a bright future but he was nice depth at a cheap price. Eduardo Nunez is more interesting but with the Twins looking to potentially flip him for something interesting at the deadline, he could turn out to be a nice little move.

Yeah, that's why I use the TR/Twins throughout. I also think it's impossible to think of the Bill Smith era without including TR. He was a senior advisor involved in the decision-making process and the guy making the final call was his protege. I think it's fair to give TR some credit/responsibility for the Smith era.

Your top 5 thing makes no sense: - Few of the Twins best prospects in the high minors/majors were drafted in the Top 5. Berrios was picked late 1st, Rosario/Gonsalves were picked in the 4th and Kepler/Sano/Jorge/Polanco/Thorpe were astute international signings. Yes the Twins have Buxton but to say that the Twins prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks is naïve. - And TR should get credit for the Top 5 picks he’s made. Picking in the MLB Top 5 isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where most guys turn out to be at least rotation players. Baseball is more of a crapshoot, even in the top 5. Less than half of top 5 picks become successful players. The Twins should actually get credit for some very astute drafting in the top 5 or 6 as Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart and Buxton all are still legitimate prospects who look to play key roles in the future of the Twins. That isn’t a given and TR and the Twins should get some props for that. I also think it’s incorrect to say that “practically every attempt TR made to supplement [Top 5] talent went bad.” Terry Ryan has also done many good things acquiring talent in other ways: - His trades for May and Meyer were good trades. The Twins got legitimate prospects while trading from a place of depth (Revere especially - replacement level player). Just because Meyer has been hurt and May has stagnated a bit this year doesn’t make the value gained in those trades any less. Both players are still part of the Twins plans for the future and besides, you can’t judge a move on how much WAR the player gets. Injuries happen and there are no givens – both of those trades were good value and were smart moves I would do again. - Terry Ryan (and Bill Smith before him) is actually pretty amazing at getting value for useless players. TR got Daniel Palka for Chris Hermann (amazing to get anything!), Tommy Milone for Sam Fuld and Nunez for Butera (via Miguel Sulbaran). That’s not super sexy but being able to get something for basically nothing is really pivotal for building a 25 man roster. The Twins have to hope that Anthony is as good getting useful parts for players with limited upside like Plouffe and Suzuki. - TR’s done a pretty good job not losing players via the Rule 5, which is harder than it seems when you have lots of young unproven players. TD has slammed him for this but Jones came back from the Brewers and Sean Gilmartin has pretty conclusively shown that last year was a fluke. TR even picked up Ryan Pressly and J.R. Graham from the Rule 5 – Pressly at least seems like a good bullpen option for the Twins to come. - Robbie Grossman was a nice pickup who might have some value either as small trade bait or as a 4th OF in the future. This isn’t to say that you couldn’t highlight mistakes TR has made but it’s really unfair to say that (A.) anyone can pick well in the top 5, (B.) that the Twins enviable prospect depth is based on Top 5 picks and (C.) that TR was unable to add talent outside of high draft picks. It is likely time for TR to go (though if the Pohldad’s don’t stop being cheapskates I don’t see how the next guy is going to do better than TR – not sure why that isn’t the story) but I think we should give credit where credit is due: TR has done an admirable job restocking the Twins minor league system after it bottomed out in the early 2010s. The Twins are a year or two away from contention but the fact that the future looks that rosy is a testament to TR.

Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks!

That’s a fair point but I still think it’s off to say the Twins should have known Mauer would be done. Two thoughts: First of all, Mauer was done in by concussions, his knees are fine. I don’t think taller guys are more likely to get concussions. That said, I take the point that Mauer had some overall health issues. If Ramos had been traded in 2012 when Mauer was 29 I’d understand the consternation more but he was traded when Mauer was 27. The Twins had a reasonable expectation Mauer could at least play half the season at catcher as he got to age 31 or 32 and keeping Ramos for 5 years as a back-up or at best platoon catcher is not an ideal use of resources. Secondly, there are a lot of taller catchers who have had fine long careers. Gary Carter was 6’2”, Mike Scioscia was 6’2”, Javy Lopez was 6’3”, Matt Wieters is 6’5”, Sandy Alomar Jr. was 6’5” and Mike Piazza was 6’3” (according to baseball reference). If Salvador Perez became available, I think most TDers would be ecstatic and not worry he’s 6’3”. Height is likely not ideal for a catcher but it doesn’t mean a great player (like Joe) can’t succeed at an unusual size for his position (and trends change as well – big shortstops were frowned upon until A-Rod and co. showed you didn’t need to be 5’8” to be a SS). P.S. The tallest catcher in MLB history was amazing. Loved corn whiskey, fought teammates and opponents all the time, was suspended for drinking repeatedly in the wild era of the early 1900s when it was harder to get suspended, ended his career suspended for brawling with his manager in a hotel lobby, and was killed a few years later when he was shot while trying to attack a bartender. I would bet that Joe Mauer has never even tried corn whiskey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_McLean

(1) The Twins signed Mauer to that big contract with the idea he would catch for more than the first 3-4 years of it. They knew that he would likely not finish the contract as a catcher but they thought they'd be able to ease him out of it in the past few years, not lose him at age 30. I'd challenge you to find a single newspaper article at the time of the signing that said Joe would be done catching in 2013. Sometimes bad things happen to good people and saying "You should have known" isn't helpful or fair. (2) Ramos was traded in 2010 and Joe was a full-time catcher until 2013. The Ramos trade didn't leave a hole, you would've had a backup who was overqualified for the job with no real end in sight. It was fine to trade him. The Twins options since haven't panned out which leaves you where half the league is most years - treading water with replacement level catchers and fishing the murky waters of catchers in their 30s on short term deals. You can't win them all. (3) As far as a free agent contract goes, large free agent commitments to catchers are almost universally a poor idea. Since 2012, it's hard to find a marquee signing you wish the Twins had made. The big contracts that went bad are Russell Martin (ugh), Saltalamacchia (double ugh) and Carlos Ruiz (not worth it). Matt Weiters is too early to tell but that's not one with a ton of upside. The only one that looks maybe okay is Brian McCann and that's a huge maybe since he has two more years on the deal at age 35 and was paid $17 mill/year. Catchers generally aren't available by free agency. (4) This leaves the draft, which is of course a crap shoot. If there isn't a catcher available where you pick, you can't reach and grab one. Maybe someone who is better versed in the draft can highlight a place where the Twins chose not to grab a catcher but didn't but I can't remember one. A brief look at the first round doesn't show much hope. Of catchers taken in the first since Mauer, the only names of distinction are Posey and Weiters (both of whom were taken before the Twins picked that year). There are 10-15 other first round catchers taken who either never made the majors or never turned into even decent average catchers. By far the best of these is Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the career 0.4 WAR. The Twins have tried in the draft but again, you don't always win. Hindsight is 20/20. What would you have done differently? Who would you have signed/traded for/drafted? Catching is thin - if you lose your franchise catcher at a surprisingly early age, you're likely going to struggle to replace him for awhile. It's the QB of baseball, not the punter.

I don't know that you can say that it should be apparent that Mauer wouldn't be able to catch at 31/32. There are tons of catchers still active at that age. They don't tend to be as good but Mauer as a catcher was amazing (if he was a catcher right now, no one would be complaining about his hitting, he'd be a very good option at catcher). He suddenly and unexpectedly couldn't catch and I think it's hard to blame the Twins for not being ready for this - you can't prepare for everything. Trading Ramos made sense for a team with eyes on the postseason - they just needed to get more than Fat Craps. Stupid Bill Smith. I also don't think you can say the Twins haven't invested in the position - they have, it just hasn't turned out perfectly, which happens in a world where we don't have the benefit of hindsight. The Twins have drafted some high-upside catchers in Garver and Turner who have taken some time (as catchers tend to). They also had Pinto* set up and concussions and fielding issues just never quite put him into the mix on the MLB level. The Twins even traded for JRM - it hasn't worked (yet) but was the right move to make. They didn't do the stupid thing and go sign a Russell Martin (woof to that contract BTW - a warning sign about pursuing Ramos this offseason). Suzuki hasn't been amazing but he's been an okay stop gap and likely worth the money invested as he has certainly better over the past three or four years than anyone else in his pay slot on the free market. Catcher is a probably the hardest position to be set at (maybe shortstop too?) so sometimes you have trouble with it. I like (but don't love) the future options for the position and understand the reasonable moves that left the Twins in this position. It happens, we'll be better in the future. * Was looking at Pinto because I'd forgotten about him. He's tearing it up in AAA for the Brewers (.965 OPS with lots of doubles) but only catching about half the time, playing first the rest. I don't know if that's a catching depth thing or a "he's not much more than an emergency backup catcher" type thing. Would love to see him do well, always enjoyed the way he played.

Also, while I have loved Chih-Wei Hu for years and was sad to see him leave, his upside is #3 starter right? And more likely he's a back of the rotation starter? It's sad that Jepsen fell apart but I don't think this is a "this will haunt the Twins" trade, more of a "oh well, we took a shot and came up on the short end of the stick" trade.

Coming into the season I would have said he was more legit than Jay and Stewart, trailing only Berrios. Nothing this season has changed that. As much as we worry about Twins pitching in 2017 (rightfully so), a June 2017 rotation of Berrios, Gonsalves, May, Hughes and Gibson might be pretty decent. Enough to be in playoff contention if some of the hitters take a jump. And the next wave of pitching talent (Jay, Stewart, Jorge) would be right behind them. All Star break positivity!

The Twins were always going to trade Ramos since they understandably thought that it was a position of strength given the presence of one of the all-time greats at the position. People had a concept that they would eventually move Mauer to 1B or 3B or somewhere but it was expected that move was years away and that it would be a slow transition. Concussions are the worst. Ramos needed to play everyday so he became trade bait (same thing may happen to Polanco if the Twins remain committed to Dozier). So it's not trading Ramos that is the issue, it's the fact that all they got was Fat Craps for him. Stupid Fat Craps.

I think 2-3 would count as a good many. I kept it vague with "good many" for a reason! If you were to set an over/under I think it would be 2.5. I'd take the over in that case - I think at least three of Abad, Suzuki, Plouffe and Santana will be on another team come September 1st (and in that order for likelihood of being traded goes). It's also hard to base "how many guys traded" on more than the past few years because the 5th wild card really changes things in favor of sellers. There are only 4 "clearly selling" teams in the AL and 7 in the NL (though a hot streak out the break from the Rockies could make that 6). Hopefully the Twins are active right out of the gate in the second half before some of the .500 teams can swoon and become sellers.

Not as high on Granite, still profiles as a 4th OF (though a relatively nice one of course!) rather than a leadoff hitter and regular OF.

I mean, I get some negativity towards the front office but they do get this team is not going anywhere. The front office can read the standings and is playing for next year. You can make good arguments to trade and to keep Dozier/Nunez/Tonkin/Pressley but Plouffe, Suzuki, Abad and Santana will all be on the block. They won't give Santana away but the rest will be readily available. As for the former guys, I think they'll trade them if they get a nice offer and feel comfortable keeping them if not. That's probably as it should be. Dozier and Polanco are a bit messy but Dozier is tradable in the offseason if need be. Tonkin and Pressley are decent controllable relievers. Nunez depends on what you think of him going forward and what other teams are willing to pony up. We make a sport out of hating the Twins FO on these blogs but you have to be really negative to think they're that out of touch. The Twins will be open to actively trading a solid 1/3 to 1/2 of the roster and a good many will go.