ThejacKmp

Ludicrous. It's not playing favorites, it's being smart. What's Petit's upside? What's Dozier's? You stick with Dozier because he has a track record of 30 HR power. Petit has a career OPS of .652 and has hit 4 HR . . . in his career. He has no minor league track record of success. He was so good that he signed a minor league contract with the Twins at age 33. There's reactionary fandom and then there's this. This is worse. It's been two weeks for Pete's sake.

Ludicrous to say that Dozier is a slow starter. Two years ago I was arguing on TD when people said that Dozier started fast but never finished well. This is recency bias at it's finest.

Making things interesting, the Giants are paying $208 Million for this team and are over the luxury cap by $11 million-ish. They were over the luxury tax limit by $3 million last year too so getting under this year would allow them to reset the increasingly draconian penalty and avoid being a third time offender next year. Getting McCutchen ($15 million) off the books would bring them close to getting under the cap. The Giants might have to move a guy like McCutchen because there aren't a lot of other options: •Hunter Pence is the only other big-money expiring contract and he's going to be very difficult to move. Joe Panik has an expiring deal but he's only making $3.5 million so that doesn't move the needle much. •Posey has value but it's hard to see the face of the franchise being traded and his contract is pretty massive for a 31 year old catcher. •Baumgardner has a lot of value when he comes back and is likely the biggest chip the Giants have for getting prospects but it's hard to see the Giants moving him. Baumgardner + McCutchen would get the Giants under the cap FWIW. •Melancon, Longoria, Crawford, Cueto, Shark and Belt are all on too long of deals and not effective enough to be realistically moved IMO. •Austin Jackson and Tony Watson each make only $3 million this year and next and might have some interest as a 4th OF or middle reliever salary dump to get the balance of the $11 million after McCutchen theoretically goes. Larger point is that if the Giants were to lose 20 of their next 30 games or so (not hard without Cueto or MadBaum) and decided resetting the luxury tax is a priority, it's hard not to see McCutchen being a part of that. The earlier they move him, the more of his salary they get off their books. Might be a nice opportunity for the Twins to get a new 4th OF in early June.

Making things interesting, the Giants are paying $208 Million for this team and are over the luxury cap by $11 million-ish. They were over the luxury tax limit by $3 million last year too so getting under this year would allow them to reset the increasingly draconian penalty and avoid being a third time offender next year. Getting McCutchen off the books would bring them close to getting under the cap. The Giants might have to move a guy like McCutchen because there aren't a lot of other options: Hunter Pence is the only other big-money expiring contract and he's going to be very difficult to move. Joe Panik has an expiring deal but he's only making $3.5 million so that doesn't move the needle much.Posey has value but it's hard to see the face of the franchise being traded and his contract is pretty massive for a 31 year old catcher.Baumgardner has a lot of value when he comes back and is likely the biggest chip the Giants have for getting prospects but it's hard to see the Giants moving him. Baumgardner + McCutchen would get the Giants under the cap FWIW.Melancon, Longoria, Crawford, Cueto, Shark and Belt are all on too long of deals and not effective enough to be realistically moved IMO.Austin Jackson and Tony Watson each make only $3 million this year and next and might have some interest as a 4th OF or middle reliever salary dump to get the balance of the $11 million after McCutchen theoretically goes.Larger point is that if the Giants were to lose 20 of their next 30 games or so (not hard without Cueto or MadBaum) and decided resetting the luxury tax is a priority, it's hard not to see McCutchen being a part of that. The earlier they move him, the more of his salary they get off their books. Might be a nice opportunity for the Twins to get a new 4th OF in early June.

I didn't see anything about a no-trade clause when McCutchen got traded and he doesn't qualify for the 10-and-5 veto. So I think he can be traded. He's on the last year of his deal and makes $14 million. So at the deadline it'd be somewhere around $6 million for the rest of the year. Definitely something the Twins could absorb.

Any concept on his catching? It would seem that being new to the position would mean he needs at least a few years in the low minors to learn it. But what do I know?

I was thinking about the trade deadline today. If the Twins are still in it after the All-Star Break and don't have any huge injuries (knock on wood), they're a pretty solid team. It’s hard to see where they’d need massive upgrades. • The starting rotation almost has too many options so outside of an ace, it makes little sense to get a pitcher. Even then, not sure there’s going to be a starting pitcher available who moves the dial that much. • The bullpen has struggled at times but is deep with a lot of options in the high minors. You could make a move but the market on elite bullpen arms is always high and I’m not sure the Twins will have a need that excuses the cost. • The starting lineup looks set. Escobar papers over any infield issues and the starting outfield is strong. And with Polanco coming back in the second half (though not the playoffs), SS seems like somewhere the Twins can hold off on an upgrade. The Twins biggest targets might be more cosmetic and involve the bench. Assuming Castro isn’t gone for long, catcher is set. Infield seems good too with Adrianza and Escobar (elephant in the room about who goes when Polanco comes back). The big hole for the Twins is a RH 4th outfielder who can soak up some DH at-bats. Rosario and Kepler have hit lefties well but it’d be nice to not be trotting out Grossman so regularly against LH starters. Ryan Lamarre has been a nice story but there’s room for improving the outfield depth on the MLB roster – Grossman can become a 25th man as a switch-hitting bench bat rather than an often-overmatched 4th OF. The Twins will have some options to upgrade this spot but I’m hoping that Andrew McCutchen will be available and willing to come play a more bit role for a contending team. That last part is no small matter but the Giants have lost Madison and Cueto and look like a team that could plummet down the standings. McCutchen might be interested in tasting the playoffs again? He would be an ideal fit. He has a career .963 OPS vs. LHP (and 1.131 OPS last year so that's not weighted by early performance). That would be solid in the Twins lineup and would also give them that big bench bat they're looking for when teams bring in left-handed relievers late (McCutchen has a higher OPS vs. LH relievers than LH starters). He’s also a capable corner OF even if he’s no longer a CF. The cost would likely not be prohibitive. McCutchen is in the last year of his deal and has struggled at times this year. He fetched almost nothing this offseason – middling RH reliever Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds, a 2016 2nd round pick OF who hasn’t look special thus far and profiles as a 4th OF or defensive centerfielder. If the Twins are willing to eat $6-8 million in salary, I think they could get McCutchen for someone like 2017 5th round pick Andrew Bechtold. And even that might be too high - I was siding on giving up too much instead of an unrealistic pipedream. Thoughts on this? I’d feel a lot more comfortable if our lineup against LHP was something like: 1B Mauer ( L ) 2B Dozier ( R ) DH Sano ( R ) RF McCutchen ( R ) LF Rosario/Kepler ( L ) CF Buxton ( R ) 3B Escobar ( S ) C Garver ( R ) SS Polanco/Adrianza ( S ) You could even give Joe a day off and slot Grossman in as DH with Sano playing 1B. Your bench against lefties would be Morrison, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman/Mauer and Castro. That’s not too shabby.

Any news on Buxton's availability?

He'll for sure be up to AA this summer if he hits like this. The big league club would have to happen before Polanco comes back. Once Polanco comes back, the depth becomes too much: Dozier, Polanco, Escobar and Adrianza all ahead of him.

SSS. It's been 63 at bats. His OPS+ since 2012 has been 97, which is great for a catcher. I imagine that number will creep higher this year if he's being rested against lefties because he's got a more capable caddie in Garver. My only worry is that meniscus seems bad for a catcher. The Twins don't seem worried but if Castro goes down, the cupboard is bare. Not sure who they could trade for - Gimenez maybe?

This is some serious Castro-hate based on a very small sample. Since 2012, Castro has put up a 97 OPS+ as a catcher. That's pretty solid for a catcher. He's off to a rough start this year but his BABIP is low and we're basing it off of 63 at bats. That's not enough to say he can't hit. And his catching has been good this year - he's thrown out 40% of base stealers and is generally considered an above-average catcher. Garver is unproven but that's kind of the point of a backup catcher. He's got a 107 OPS+ and is trending up after a cold start. I don't see where the Twins are going to get some elite catcher. Those don't exist on the free agent market (Russell Martin was really the last one to hit the market) and are very expensive via trade. The Twins have a pretty good catching situation - a lefty and a righty with some pop. If one goes down, I could see adding someone but that'd be the only reason to upgrade catcher.

Not giving up on the Wild Card. The Twins have an easy division and can beat up on the Tiggers, Royals and White Sox all year long while teams in the AL West and East will slog through games against better teams. The Twins are bound to get healthier and get Polanco back for the second half too. I fully expect the Twins to be in the Wild Card hunt in August/September while also chasing down Cleveland.

One issue might be if the Giants continue to compete (they're 19-17) and thus aren't selling. However, it's hard to see that continuing with Cueto out for 8-10 weeks and Baumgardner at least a month away from coming back. The NL West looks pretty competitive with the Dodgers bound to bounce back and the Rockies and D-Backs off to hot starts. I'm definitely checking to see if the Giants lose each day. There isn't another great option as a RH OF (lots of LH ones) so it'd be nice if McCutchen was an option (and if other contenders didn't need the same thing).

I was thinking about the trade deadline today. If the Twins are still in it after the All-Star Break and don't have any huge injuries (knock on wood), they're a pretty solid team. It’s hard to see where they’d need massive upgrades. • The starting rotation almost has too many options so outside of an ace, it makes little sense to get a pitcher. Even then, not sure there’s going to be a starting pitcher available who moves the dial that much. • The bullpen has struggled at times but is deep with a lot of options in the high minors. You could make a move but the market on elite bullpen arms is always high and I’m not sure the Twins will have a need that excuses the cost. • The starting lineup looks set. Escobar papers over any infield issues and the starting outfield is strong. And with Polanco coming back in the second half (though not the playoffs), SS seems like somewhere the Twins can hold off on an upgrade. The Twins biggest targets might be more cosmetic and involve the bench. Assuming Castro isn’t gone for long, catcher is set. Infield seems good too with Adrianza and Escobar (elephant in the room about who goes when Polanco comes back). The big hole for the Twins is a RH 4th outfielder who can soak up some DH at-bats. Rosario and Kepler have hit lefties well but it’d be nice to not be trotting out Grossman so regularly against LH starters. Ryan Lamarre has been a nice story but there’s room for improving the outfield depth on the MLB roster – Grossman can become a 25th man as a switch-hitting bench bat rather than an often-overmatched 4th OF. The Twins will have some options to upgrade this spot but I’m hoping that Andrew McCutchen will be available and willing to come play a more bit role for a contending team. That last part is no small matter but the Giants have lost Madison and Cueto and look like a team that could plummet down the standings. McCutchen might be interested in tasting the playoffs again? He would be an ideal fit. He has a career .963 OPS vs. LHP (and 1.131 OPS last year so that's not weighted by early performance). That would be solid in the Twins lineup and would also give them that big bench bat they're looking for when teams bring in left-handed relievers late (McCutchen has a higher OPS vs. LH relievers than LH starters). He’s also a capable corner OF even if he’s no longer a CF. The cost would likely not be prohibitive. McCutchen is in the last year of his deal and has struggled at times this year. He fetched almost nothing this offseason – middling RH reliever Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds, a 2016 2nd round pick OF who hasn’t look special thus far and profiles as a 4th OF or defensive centerfielder. If the Twins are willing to eat $6-8 million in salary, I think they could get McCutchen for someone like 2017 5th round pick Andrew Bechtold. And even that might be too high - I was siding on giving up too much instead of an unrealistic pipedream. Thoughts on this? I’d feel a lot more comfortable if our lineup against LHP was something like: 1B Mauer ( L ) 2B Dozier ( R ) DH Sano ( R ) RF McCutchen ( R ) LF Rosario/Kepler ( L ) CF Buxton ( R ) 3B Escobar ( S ) C Garver ( R ) SS Polanco/Adrianza ( S ) You could even give Joe a day off and slot Grossman in as DH with Sano playing 1B. Your bench against lefties would be Morrison, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman/Mauer and Castro. That’s not too shabby.

I'd like to see Gonsalves get a few more starts in AAA but yeah, he's looking better. What about a 6 man rotation?

This is a fantastic idea. Even if his bat slows down, Escobar doesn't need to hit as much at 2B as at 3B. And that versatility is nice if the Twins have the excellent problem of other guys knocking on the door (Blankenhorn, Javier, etc.) and run out of room for him. We've seen with Eduardo Nunez that it's not hard to trade a guy who can play all over the place, especially to NL teams. I wonder what that kind of an extension would cost for Escobar? I'd imagine something like 4 years $32 - $36 million?

Yeah, quality starts is a bad stat but there isn't something better to track it. I've always thought they could make QS better by giving you one point for a 6 inning QS, 2 for a 7 inning QS, 3 for an 8 inning etc. Sucks to lose the QS because your guy gives up two runs in the 8th but if they do, you still get credit for the 7 inning QS. Also makes a shutout worth an appropriate amount because as is, Paxton would get the same point as Odorizzi would have if he went one more inning yesterday. That seems unfair.

Agreed. Though I also think that Lynn has more value than you'd think (capped at maybe a lottery ticket prospect). He's been bad but teams know he's not that bad, he has a track record. And he costs less and less (though of course you get less and less) as time goes on. Just because the Twins won at $12 million doesn't mean other teams weren't in for less (or that Lynn didn't choose the Twins over an equal offer due to playoff potential, reputation, rotation role, Midwest love etc.) I don't think it's a desperate need thing either. Lance Lynn is a solid MLB starter, terrible Twins start not included. In spring training, everyone has their own plans. By the end of May, some of those plans have fallen through. Lynn would be a safe low ceiling, low floor move for a lot of teams with a spot to fill in the rotation.

I don't know, I think I might have grabbed him. The Twins hit enough that he'll get wins (unless your league is progressive enough to get rid of wins) and those K numbers are pretty useful. He's at least a nice streaming option in two start weeks.

You're correct that you won't get a quality shortstop for him but it's erroneous to think he'd make it through waivers. Teams have injuries to starters, teams have young guys who need more seasoning, teams are suddenly competitive . . . there are openings. The Giants would take him in a heartbeat with Cueto and Madison down already. I think the big point is that Lance Lynn will almost certainly improve. He's young enough that it's unlikely the wheels fell off and he has a consistent track record. I know nothing about baseball but maybe starting spring training late hurt him. Give him May and if he hasn't turned it around, then we know who Ervin replaces.

Did you pick him up?

This second wave of Twins prospects is going to be so pivotal for the Twins. If they can add a new wave as Buxton, Rosario etc. enter the final stage of their career, that could put the Twins over the top. Really excited.

Only thing I can think: Molitor was going to pull Odorizzi if the Twins got another run because the league would be bigger. If not, he wanted to ride his starter another inning. But that still makes little sense since pinch-hitting for Odorizzi makes it way more likely you get the runs you "need" in order to pull the starter. Not going to matter but seems like Molly out-thought himself?

Logan Morrison leading off? He's done it before (93 PA) but that seems bizarre. He's never faced Carlos Martinez so it's not like it's a matchup-based thing. I think I'd've moved Kepler up? Kepler Dozier Rosario Escobar Morrison Garver Grossman Adrianza Odorizzi Weird lineup, even for a getaway game.

You forgot the Thorpedo in the Top 20.