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Wax Kepler

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Everything posted by Wax Kepler

  1. Wax Kepler
    OPS is more than one stat, combined. Polanco had a .269 BA and a .323 OBP. Arraez had a .294 BA and .357 OBP. Who would you rather have, a team of Polancos or Arraezes? If you chose Polanco, you do in fact prefer OPS to OBP.
  2. Wax Kepler
    I think OPS is the best measure of a hitter because it includes OBP which includes AVG.
  3. Wax Kepler
    On planet OPS. Arraez OPS: 733 League average OPS: 728 Sub-par defense, I think it's safe to say.
  4. Wax Kepler
    He was a pretty good hitter in his rookie year. Last year he was average with sub-par defense.
  5. Wax Kepler
    Polanco has gotta be at double Arraez trade value at the very least. 5 to 10 times over, more like it. Throw those numbers out the window. I'd love it if you were right and Arraez has way more trade value than I'd guess.
  6. Wax Kepler
    I'm guessing he'd get us a decent relief pitcher with some team control at best. What do you expect we'd get for Arraez?
  7. Wax Kepler
    Maybe, but he's mostly played 2B in his career, right? He probably won't get better there. His bat is the reason you put up with his defense, but his OPS has been in decline since his rookie season. On top of that, he's got an injury history. These are reasons why I don't think teams are going to trade anything good for him.
  8. Wax Kepler
    I think he's a below average defender. That's a big "if" he stays healthy, his knees are suspect. What "if" the '20-21 Arraez is what you get, most teams have multiple better second baseman.
  9. Wax Kepler
    Yea, why didn't the OP list that as a potential for Martin. He doesn't even explore the possibility Instead, he just pigeonholes him into corner outfielder. Because of his arm? You don't need a rocket arm to play 2nd base but it's also handy as an OF. Incomplete analysis on that aspect.
  10. Wax Kepler
    I don't think they're horrible, but they aren't a winning team. Arraez is a lottery ticket going into next year. I don't think he has any substantial trade value but what's the alternative to keeping him and seeing what next year brings? Trade him for Shaun Anderson?
  11. Wax Kepler
    Just keep him and hope he hits better and has more value than his trade value which I'm guessing is very low considering his knees and recent performance at the plate. You probably don't get the same return as Lamonte Wade did last season, and we'd have been better off not trading him.
  12. Wax Kepler
    As long as you don't expect much in return. I don't think he moves the needle in a package deal for a significant pitcher either. What's the point of trading him if the return is near zero?
  13. Wax Kepler
    We have Arraez, Miranda, Martin, Gordon and Lewis, all who could play 2nd base. Only Lewis has SS potential, but Polanco might be better. We don't have a SS, until that's solved it's has to be on the table. What's your solution?
  14. Wax Kepler
    They should listen to offers, because his value is high but not feel obligated to trade him out of desire to sell high. All depends on what the return offered is. They should also remain open to moving him back to SS if they can't land a top SS FA. We have a lot of talent that could benefit from opening 2nd base up. No way they should trade him before the SS position is filled. The only answer right now to the question should they trade him, is, "depends".
  15. Wax Kepler
    Buxton and one of these SSs would be my top two priorities this offseason. You'd have a very flexible lineup with said SS and to back up you have Polanco and possibly Lewis. I agree with some of the commenters above who have very little or no faith in Lewis as SS of the future, but I hope he might be decent enough to spot start there. The defense looks good to help out young pitchers, with Buxton and a new SS. Those two would get the bulk of the offseason spending so I'd maybe pick up one solid FA pitcher but not get in a bidding war for a top tier guy. Someone who might take less in years or dollars and pitch out of the #1 spot (Greinke?). I'd also check in on Pineda and/or comb through the bargain bin.. See what happens in '22, with that lineup and some fortune regarding rookie pitchers, we could possibly be competitive. And beyond that, it's a very flexible lineup custom made for guys like we have coming up looking for playing time in the corner OF and IF, built around the CF and SS signings.
  16. Wax Kepler
    In a trade, you wouldn't have a choice.
  17. Wax Kepler

    Jorge Polanco and The Twins

    Wax Kepler commented on Tim's blog entry in Tim

    I was hoping we might sign one of those shortstops but looking at those price tags, I've lost hope. Just give Buxton an extension instead. This article has changed my mind on Polanco. Now I think we should move him back to SS, instead of trading him or keeping him at 2B. Not ideal, but we have no SS for next year or maybe even the next few depending on how Lewis pans out. But we do have Arraez, Gordon, Martin, Miranda, Lewis as options at 2B.
  18. Wax Kepler
    They had a really good pitcher in Berrios whom they traded for Martin. You're not gonna get a pitcher near as good as Berrios back for Martin. If they wanted a really good pitcher instead of Martin then they should've paid Berrios. Royce Lewis is at an all time low in value, so he's not even close to getting anyone "really good" back. Trading him now would selling really low, the return would be very much lower than what you're suggesting. You ask "how much do they want to get a really good pitcher?" But you gave two examples who wouldn't come close to accomplishing that, especially Lewis. Buxton and Polanco are the only players who could bring a solid pitcher back and probably only Buxton could get you something "really good".
  19. Wax Kepler
    Trade Polanco if someone offers up a solid starter, what like a borderline #2-3 which would be good enough to be our #1 until Meada returns whenever. Then I throw Arraez, and Martin/ Miranda/Lewis at 2B. It all depends on what the offers are, so I suppose the entire roster is on the table except maybe Ober and Ryan. I want to extend Buxton, but he might be the obvious choice here, if they prefer Polanco with his contract to a huge extension for Buxton. Buxton I think draws the most value in a trade, then Polanco. I don't think anyone else draws a pitcher who could anchor the rotation.
  20. Wax Kepler
    The chances Garver and Jeffers both remain healthy and playing well for most of the season and the team is still in contention at the deadline are less than half I'd guess. Then you've got at Rortvedt who isn't ready. A Twins' team that is serious about '22 going in should put very high price tag on Garver. Or maybe he's even not expendable as suggested above by chpettit. Catchers only play 2/3 of games anyway so having two is at worst only a minor problem. Besides that even, if both are playing well and there aren't enough at bats to go around I doubt, you can still trade during the season, and for a pitcher who is showing at the time.
  21. Wax Kepler
    "What really grinds on me is that first follow-up message. "Not into politics [peace sign]."" That always irritates me too. Don't pay attention to politics? OK, the rest of us will pick up the slack for you. Sick of slackers who are "not into politics." Grow up, Kepler, past time to consider becoming an adult. Thanks for speaking out Nick.
  22. Wax Kepler
    Jorge Polanco has made it mashing righties. This article has him batting 6th against RHP (his strength) and moves him up in the order against LHP. Opposite day!
  23. Wax Kepler
    Hill could contribute in a few ways: as a starter, or reliever because we don't have a lot of southpaws in the pen, and as a mentor with postseason experience to the younger guys like Thorpe and Smeltzer. I'm not as negative on the FO as many are because I believe the deck was stacked against them in free agency. I like what they did re-signing Odorizzi and Pineda and signing Bailey and Hill. There should be good group competing for the back end of the rotation all year with the talent coming up from the farm.
  24. Wax Kepler
    What's crazy is some Twins fans' expectations. Did you read the article above where he talks about how the Twins are out of luck through no fault of their own? I mean, Bumgarner wants to hit and then we hear "down right refuse fo spend money". Wha? You assessment appears to be way off base. They just can't compete with the big markets. Not their fault. "why are we rewarding them again?" They won 101 games last year! Sheesh I hope they dump Rosario! He's not good. Put that 8.9 mil towards pitching.
  25. Wax Kepler
    If you're cheering for Twins profits, that would probably be reassuring. I disagree with a lot of what you said in the quote. That's not much money. It seems like a lot to a Twins fans, but look at these contract signings. We can't just say, "Oh we can afford to swing a miss on a big contract on a controversial pitcher" (2016 Bumgarner vs 2019 Bumgarner). It seems as though you're arguing that the Twins can be more careless with their future commitments because they have so much money to spend yet THIS year($40m or so).
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