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Wax Kepler

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Everything posted by Wax Kepler

  1. Wax Kepler
    Some seem to think we have multiple SS candidates in our farm system. I don't even consider Martin there except maybe backup, am I wrong? We'll be lucky if we have one prospect with starting SS potential and that's Lewis only, if even. How many baseball players in the world are there that could be considered good MLB SSs? 15? 20? It's such a small number that to assume Lewis is just waiting in the wings is disrespectful to the craft. He has to prove himself there and has not done that yet. And Martin seems like such a longshot to land at SS I'm not even considering it for a second. Simmons isn't one of the better because he was so poor at the plate and isn't what he used to be in the field, but he used to be one of the greatest defensive SSs of all time, so I would like him back, even if we landed one of the big FAs. I think we should approach this as if we currently do not have a decent SS in the entire organization right now, unless Polanco moves back. I'd be OK with that because we have plenty of guys who could play 2B in 2022 and it would have the side benefit of opening up 2B for others. Polanco is the only player we have right now who could be relied upon as opening day SS.
  2. Wax Kepler
    I like the trade, but would be critical of it if the advice is to outbid for an "ace", that is the topic. I just think if the Twins were looking drop a lot of money on a pitcher to lead the 2022 rotation, they already had Berrios who I'm guessing will cost a lot less in his final year than a FA equivalent. If they were to drop a fortune on a guy to lead the rotation, couldn't it have been Berrios? Because you could have him cheaper this year and outbid for him next year anyway. He could've been the ace this article is referring to. Anybody better than Berrios is going to have an exorbitant price, do I think Berrios and his agent would have listened to and accepted the bounty the author of this article is implying we spend? I have my doubts the agent was instructed to cover his ears with his hands if approached by the Twins with an offer to extend the contract. If they'd heard a number the likes of the one that's gonna land a fish bigger than Berrios in FA, I doubt they would've balked. But I could be wrong. It all just tells me that they aren't going to do what is being suggested in the article. Take it with a grain of salt, because I'll admit I am severely biased toward offering the massive overpay recommended here to a SS rather than a pitcher.
  3. Wax Kepler
    Great point on Berrios and I think it's telling. Why would they not extend him, then turn around and give huge amount of money to a FA? If Berrios was on the market, he would be the type the Twins would or should go after, reliable and young. They could've just caved into his demands if they were looking spend big money on a pitcher. Kinda off topic but I think the FO made a huge mistake not extending Buxton if his only hangup was about incentives. That's such a poor decision if true that on top of recent disastrous FA signings that could get them on the hot seat.
  4. Wax Kepler
    I'd outbid for a top SS rather than a top pitcher. I do this after figuratively "outbidding" for Buxton. That would make for a helluva lineup defensively and offensively. Whatever money is left, it won't be anything close to enough for an ace, but might lower the ask from Pineda type FAs who will look to benefit from such a lineup. Also benefited would be Ober, Ryan, and whoever else rises out of the farm as well as our bullpen.
  5. Wax Kepler
    Arraez's OPS and OPS as the best measure of a hitter are central to my side of the debate. Fair enough. I think fielding stats are less reliable than say OPS is for a hitter, but your point taken, I won't say sub-par anymore.
  6. Wax Kepler
    OPS is more than one stat, combined. Polanco had a .269 BA and a .323 OBP. Arraez had a .294 BA and .357 OBP. Who would you rather have, a team of Polancos or Arraezes? If you chose Polanco, you do in fact prefer OPS to OBP.
  7. Wax Kepler
    I think OPS is the best measure of a hitter because it includes OBP which includes AVG.
  8. Wax Kepler
    On planet OPS. Arraez OPS: 733 League average OPS: 728 Sub-par defense, I think it's safe to say.
  9. Wax Kepler
    He was a pretty good hitter in his rookie year. Last year he was average with sub-par defense.
  10. Wax Kepler
    Polanco has gotta be at double Arraez trade value at the very least. 5 to 10 times over, more like it. Throw those numbers out the window. I'd love it if you were right and Arraez has way more trade value than I'd guess.
  11. Wax Kepler
    I'm guessing he'd get us a decent relief pitcher with some team control at best. What do you expect we'd get for Arraez?
  12. Wax Kepler
    Maybe, but he's mostly played 2B in his career, right? He probably won't get better there. His bat is the reason you put up with his defense, but his OPS has been in decline since his rookie season. On top of that, he's got an injury history. These are reasons why I don't think teams are going to trade anything good for him.
  13. Wax Kepler
    I think he's a below average defender. That's a big "if" he stays healthy, his knees are suspect. What "if" the '20-21 Arraez is what you get, most teams have multiple better second baseman.
  14. Wax Kepler
    Yea, why didn't the OP list that as a potential for Martin. He doesn't even explore the possibility Instead, he just pigeonholes him into corner outfielder. Because of his arm? You don't need a rocket arm to play 2nd base but it's also handy as an OF. Incomplete analysis on that aspect.
  15. Wax Kepler
    I don't think they're horrible, but they aren't a winning team. Arraez is a lottery ticket going into next year. I don't think he has any substantial trade value but what's the alternative to keeping him and seeing what next year brings? Trade him for Shaun Anderson?
  16. Wax Kepler
    Just keep him and hope he hits better and has more value than his trade value which I'm guessing is very low considering his knees and recent performance at the plate. You probably don't get the same return as Lamonte Wade did last season, and we'd have been better off not trading him.
  17. Wax Kepler
    As long as you don't expect much in return. I don't think he moves the needle in a package deal for a significant pitcher either. What's the point of trading him if the return is near zero?
  18. Wax Kepler
    We have Arraez, Miranda, Martin, Gordon and Lewis, all who could play 2nd base. Only Lewis has SS potential, but Polanco might be better. We don't have a SS, until that's solved it's has to be on the table. What's your solution?
  19. Wax Kepler
    They should listen to offers, because his value is high but not feel obligated to trade him out of desire to sell high. All depends on what the return offered is. They should also remain open to moving him back to SS if they can't land a top SS FA. We have a lot of talent that could benefit from opening 2nd base up. No way they should trade him before the SS position is filled. The only answer right now to the question should they trade him, is, "depends".
  20. Wax Kepler
    Buxton and one of these SSs would be my top two priorities this offseason. You'd have a very flexible lineup with said SS and to back up you have Polanco and possibly Lewis. I agree with some of the commenters above who have very little or no faith in Lewis as SS of the future, but I hope he might be decent enough to spot start there. The defense looks good to help out young pitchers, with Buxton and a new SS. Those two would get the bulk of the offseason spending so I'd maybe pick up one solid FA pitcher but not get in a bidding war for a top tier guy. Someone who might take less in years or dollars and pitch out of the #1 spot (Greinke?). I'd also check in on Pineda and/or comb through the bargain bin.. See what happens in '22, with that lineup and some fortune regarding rookie pitchers, we could possibly be competitive. And beyond that, it's a very flexible lineup custom made for guys like we have coming up looking for playing time in the corner OF and IF, built around the CF and SS signings.
  21. Wax Kepler
    In a trade, you wouldn't have a choice.
  22. Wax Kepler

    Jorge Polanco and The Twins

    Wax Kepler commented on Tim's blog entry in Tim

    I was hoping we might sign one of those shortstops but looking at those price tags, I've lost hope. Just give Buxton an extension instead. This article has changed my mind on Polanco. Now I think we should move him back to SS, instead of trading him or keeping him at 2B. Not ideal, but we have no SS for next year or maybe even the next few depending on how Lewis pans out. But we do have Arraez, Gordon, Martin, Miranda, Lewis as options at 2B.
  23. Wax Kepler
    They had a really good pitcher in Berrios whom they traded for Martin. You're not gonna get a pitcher near as good as Berrios back for Martin. If they wanted a really good pitcher instead of Martin then they should've paid Berrios. Royce Lewis is at an all time low in value, so he's not even close to getting anyone "really good" back. Trading him now would selling really low, the return would be very much lower than what you're suggesting. You ask "how much do they want to get a really good pitcher?" But you gave two examples who wouldn't come close to accomplishing that, especially Lewis. Buxton and Polanco are the only players who could bring a solid pitcher back and probably only Buxton could get you something "really good".
  24. Wax Kepler
    Trade Polanco if someone offers up a solid starter, what like a borderline #2-3 which would be good enough to be our #1 until Meada returns whenever. Then I throw Arraez, and Martin/ Miranda/Lewis at 2B. It all depends on what the offers are, so I suppose the entire roster is on the table except maybe Ober and Ryan. I want to extend Buxton, but he might be the obvious choice here, if they prefer Polanco with his contract to a huge extension for Buxton. Buxton I think draws the most value in a trade, then Polanco. I don't think anyone else draws a pitcher who could anchor the rotation.
  25. Wax Kepler
    The chances Garver and Jeffers both remain healthy and playing well for most of the season and the team is still in contention at the deadline are less than half I'd guess. Then you've got at Rortvedt who isn't ready. A Twins' team that is serious about '22 going in should put very high price tag on Garver. Or maybe he's even not expendable as suggested above by chpettit. Catchers only play 2/3 of games anyway so having two is at worst only a minor problem. Besides that even, if both are playing well and there aren't enough at bats to go around I doubt, you can still trade during the season, and for a pitcher who is showing at the time.
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