by jiminy

He sure looked for real against Cleveland. Not knowing whether a breaking ball will dive to the left or right has to be pretty confusing. And he was locating his fastball really well too. I find your analysis very convincing. Last year, you only had to watch for two pitches, depending on whether you were a lefty or a righty. Now, you have to watch fire all three, with a few others sprinkled in. Why wouldn't that make him harder to hit? And he was already very effective before. I don't see any reason this is a bubble that is going to burst. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, he's going to be very hard to hit.

I am not at all worried about an unequal number of games. The ultra-unbalanced schedule is already completely unfair -- Central division teams play not one game against the coastal juggernauts, etc.. And even a balanced schedule wouldn't mean that much since it's just 60 games. In a schedule that short, fluky things happen. The best teams may not have time to rise to the top. So why am I not concerned? All of those problems are rendered moot by letting 16 games into the postseason. If you can't finish in the top 16, you are not playoff playoff worthy, period. A format in which everyone makes the playoffs except the bottom half of the league is so incredibly forgiving that whether you play 50 or 60 is irrelevant. If you can't win half your games, let it go. You don't deserve a chance to end the season of an actual winning team. I have other problems with the 16-team playoff format -- for instance, a dominant Twins team could get knocked out of the playoffs by a third place team, in just two games. That is a much more serious problem, to me. And with eight of these ridiculous best of 3 series, that is going to happen. Some deserving team that easily made the final eight in the regular season will lose their place in the final eight of the playoffs due to this blatant cash-grab. The one good thing about it, though, is that if because of the short schedule, one of the best eight teams does not finish in the final eight, they still get a chance. In a 60 game season (or 45, or whatever), a little wiggle room is not the worst thing. As long as they ditch this format when the full seasons comes back. If they keep this format, though, which they sadly might because of the TV revenue, I hope they at least make them best of 5 or best of 7. Otherwise a truly terrible team with two good starting pitchers and nothing else will regularly knock a legit contender from the playoffs before they even start. What are the chances of zero upsets in eight 3 game series? Almost nil. If this happens to the Twins, in the year they finally, finally spent the money to build a legit contender, with no holes from top to bottom, I will be beside myself. The only thing that would cheer me up would be if it happened to the Yankees too. But it's not what I want. If the Twins win it all this year, but the Yankees get dumped in the first round by a third place team, it will feel more than a little hollow. What I want is a real, best of 7 matchup between the two best teams, the Twins and Yankees. That would be a victory I could savor the rest of my life. A bogus playoff with bogus matchups would mean much, much less.

Or keep Cave, Kiriloff, and Larnach and trade Buxton for an ace pitcher, someone at the level of Syndergaard. Buxton is who the Mets asked for. An ace with a big contract is a risk, but Buxton won't be cheap much longer himself. Add a front line pitcher and this would be the team to beat and a popular world series pick. Of course Buxton can make a lot of pitchers look like an ace with his defense. I'm not trying to run him out of town. I love seeing him in center field. I'd rather get an ace by seeing Balazavic or Duran break out. I'm just saying, in keeping with the topic of this post, our outfield depth is such that we could afford to trade Buxton for a star pitcher of that's what it took. And that is a good option to have.

Arraez is so great to watch. I keep thinking how amazing it is that we have a guy who hit .334 last year hitting 9th. I've seen non-Minnesota journalists pick him to win the batting title -- add he can't crack the top 8 spots in our lineup. Unbelievable. Remember when Buxton and Sano represented our future hopes? If you would have told me they would be our 7 and 8 hitters, followed by a potential batting champ, I would have been amazed. Especially if i heard it wasn't because they didn't pan out, but the lineup was just too tough, too to bottom, with eight guys with 22 or more homers and 11 wet 10. I am still amazed today. No one would be surprised if any of those three were all stars. Yet they are the bottom of our lineup. I'd be happy to have them as my top three. It's incredible watching this lineup cycle through. I remember years after you'd had to wait two innings before the dangerous part of the lineup cane up. Now, it never stops. Our twelfth best slugger hit 8 homers last year and already hit a grand slam this year. You don't want to look away even when the bench warmers hit. It's like a dream.

If Buxton gets walked with two outs in the ninth to avoid having him start the tenth on second, he could run on every pitch. If he makes it that puts him on second for a potential RBI. If he gets thrown out that's the last out and he starts the tenth on second. It's win-win.

I don't understand why they would be more likely to double up starters in a short season. Doesn't that mean starters are less likely to wear down than over a long season? Seems like you could ride them a little harder, not the other way around. And the expanded roster and short season means you could go to the bullpen earlier, either pitching your best relievers for longer stretches, because their total innings will be reduced, or spreading innings around to more relievers. Meaning if your starter tires, or you want a change of pace, you're more likely to bring in a stud reliever than an unproven young starter barely out of the minor leagues. I'm not against stacking starters for a change of pace or better lefty-righty matchups. I just don't expect to see it much this year. Except maybe at first, because of the shortened preseason. If no pitcher is ready to pitch more than 4 innings, you might need to spread the innings around more. But once they are stretched out, I think the Twins will ride their best pitchers as long as they can, since the season is more of a sprint than a marathon. With such a short season, it's like the playoffs have already started on day one. As long as the game is close anyway. And given the AL Central we may see a lot of blowouts. I suspect those second tier starters will come in mostly when the Twins have bludgeoned the young Royals and Tigers starters early and built up a big lead. Then they can rest their top starters and relievers. Other than that, though, I think they will be trying to win every inning they can. Let your eighth starter blow a few games and you might find yourself behind the Spiders and Sox in the standings without enough time to catch up.

I agree about the depth issue. Our second five are basically what our top five used to look like in a typical year, when we had to hope for some up-and-comers emerging and some veterans bouncing back to be competitive at all. Another big advantage is that Hill and Pineda would be available for most of the season, instead of only half of it.

Could you add a link where you say, "Patrick’s post on the top-5 regression candidates for the Twins"?

Could you add a link where you say, "Patrick’s post on the top-5 regression candidates for the Twins"?

Thank you for this! I thought his weakness was outside breaking balls! I had no idea his numbers were that bad against fastballs. Moving up to bottom third from bottom eighth seems like it has a realistic chance of being sustainable. In fact he could keep improving! If they can convince him there is nothing heroic about intentionally injuring yourself he could still reach his potential. If he's too stubborn to stop running into wall and face planting into the turf, trade him for pitching while he's still worth something. But if he understands he is letting down his teammates by gambling with his health, and his first responsibility is to protect his body, he could lead this team to greatness.

I'm afraid the best candidate for "next Ryan Pressly" is Brusdar Graterol.

I like Maeda, but I would prefer to have Ryu, Graterol, and Raley. Imagine Ryu starting against the Yankees, then bringing in Graterol. That's a playoff team could match up with anyone.

Not much good happens going after a low outside curveball. That used to be the bane of Buxton and Sano. If they can continue to hold off on those pitches outside the zone the sky is the limit. If not, they could go back to hitting .180 again.

If Buxton gets injured again Kepler could move to CF. We might need all these guys.

Cruz, Gonzales, Bailey, Hill, and Romo are not painful losses, and that's 39 million right there. Cruz is good but one of Rooker, Larnach, or Kirilloff should be ready to step in. Gonzalez is replaceable with Cave, Astudillo, or Adrianza, and his value was inflated by stealing signs anyway. The three pitchers are not anchors either. So that's below 100 even without losing Odo or May. And there is a good chance someone in house will be the equal or better of Odo by then, potentially freeing another 17 million, bringing the departed salary up to 56 million, none of it core players except maybe Odorizzi. Replace Rosario with a young slugger and there is another 8 million, making 64 million available to restock. And that is just to get back to spending barely half of revenue. Sure several guys will need raises, but I don't see a big crunch. I think they are set up really well for years to come. There is room in the budget to add an ace, especially if they are in win-now mode and decide to make up for all the years they spent under 50% because their window hasn't opened yet. The converse of that logic is you spend more when you finally become a legit contender. I'm optimistic they will strike if they see an opportunity. It's been a long, long wait, and if they don't want to lose the fans that stuck with them through the hard times it would behoove them to spend a little of that stadium money on rewarding their old fans and recruiting new ones. Nothing attracts fans like winning, so even on purely financial grounds it would be money well spent.

Wow, with all the talent on this team Cave was not even on my radar! To hold his own at this stagee of his career is already impressive. But if he really can take it up another notch, that opens up some more options. For instance, instead of trading him, we could trade someone else. If you could play him every day without a big drop off, that makes someone else expendable. It makes me much more interested in trading Buxton for Syndergaard, for example. Kepler in center is a drop off from Buxton, but not as much as the increase in value of having a true ace in the rotation. If either Cave or Rosario can't hack it, corner outfield is our strongest position of depth in the minors. And If Kepler can't hold down center you've got Lewis in waiting there too. Sure, Buxton could be a superstar, but so could Thor. I think we'd be a bigger threat in the playoffs by trading from strength and upgrading our rotation. (Assuming we extended Thor as part of the deal -- I wouldn't trade Buxton for a rental.) But this team would be truly scary with an ace, and Buxton might be the only guy that could land one. The Mets asked about him last year. Why not give them a call?

I don't love giving up Graterol for essentially payroll relief. I would much rather have seen them sign Ryu and keep Graterol. And if you don't sign Bailey, who was also signed because he was cheap, He wouldn't even cost that much more. With Ryu and Graterol, you have two pitchers who could dominate in the playoffs. Bailey and Maeda are compromises, made for financial reasons. It's great they signed Donaldson but that still barely put payroll at half of revenue. If you have a window open go for it. These aren't go for it moves. Imagine Ryu followed by Graterol against the Yankees. That's a playoff team. It's nice they got a cheap, pretty good pitcher, but it's not exciting, and I'll miss Graterol. Probably smart if you're on a tight budget but keeps them a level below the favorites.

The Boston press is hammering the Red Sox even more: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/everyone-knew-brusdar-graterol-was-damaged-goods-everyone-except-red-sox-apparently

Maeda makes $13.15M as a full time starter, and Bailey makes $7 million. Together that adds up to more than Ryu is making. Would you trade them both for Ryu? I would have thought yes. Ryu is guaranteed for four years though and these guys are not. But is Graterol worth the cost of insuring Ryu's contract? Maeda isn't even younger than Ryu. I guess they just like Maeda better. I trust they know more than I do but it seems odd.

To be worth it they have to expect him to pitch enough innings to reach his incentives, which add up to $13,150,000 per year. For another $7 million they could have had Ryu and kept Graterol. They must not think very highly of Graterol.

The Twins were robbed in another way, too, by paying for prediction from Gonzales that will never happen again without cheating.

If he can work on his secondary pitches between appearances, fine. I don't think he'll reach his ceiling until he does that. But providing useful innings now, while working on his changeup etc. on the sidelines, could keep his options open to still start later.

Regarding pitching, a trade for an up and comer would be great, but I wouldn't mortgage the future for an aging vet. It's possible the pitching we need is already in the system. If they strike gold with Graterol, Balazovic, Dobnak, Thorpe, or Duran, this team is set up to compete for a long time.

Yes he's an injury risk, but the fact that they knew that and paid him anyway makes me give then even more credit for going for it! And this lineup is DEEP! Those scary 1 through 9 lineups above don't even include Marwin! They are built to just keep on coming at you, even when injuries hit. This is not one if those all your eggs in one basket free agent gambles. Worst case, Sano or Gonzales covers third, and we're fine. (Or Adriana or Arraez or Astidillo...) Very impressed at the team they built, short and long term.

My favorite part about this is thinking about how afraid other teams will be when they come to play here! I think we'll see some teams pressing, desperately swinging for the fences in a futile effort to keep pace.