by jiminy

The wild card is no sure thing now either. They are just 1.5 ahead of the Rays, and 4.0 ahead of Oakland. Oakland could add Puk, Manaea, and Luzardo, and they have been almost as hot as Cleveland without them. If Cleveland doesn't cool off they might not even make the one-game playoff.

Buxton's refusal to take care of his body could literally cost them the division. I wonder if that would finally cause him to reassess his recklessness.

Actually I do think it's a smart plan. Many, many people were howling for them to trade guys like Graterol for bullpen help. They took a lot of heat for refusing. I'm glad they held out. Graterol might contribute more to the bullpen THIS YEAR than a trade target like Dyson. But if we'd shown we were serious about winning now, we'd either lose that reliever next year, or pay him a market rate salary, completely offsetting the chance to hire a similar reliever for the same salary as a free agent. Instead, we have six years of cost-controlled pitching from a guy who already touches 100mph at age 20 and could be part of a playoff-quality rotation for years to come. I'll take that trade any day. Or in this case, that non-trade. I'm hoping to see Graterol in the pen this year for the pennant run and playoffs, and in the rotation with Balazovic and Duran two or three years from now. In the meantime, rookie relievers often start really strong and can be difference makers in the playoffs. Not a sure thing obviously but neither is Dyson, or Greene, etc.

Another example is the Archer trade. I think most trade offers you just need to be able to walk away. I'd rather see the Twins as they look now, with the only help coming form the minors, than their future gutted for a dubious star like Archer or Edwin Diaz.

Is there any chance someone like Graterol or Duran might make a late season appearance in the Twins' bullpen?

I wonder why the Mets didn't trade Wheeler? The Twins, and any number of teams, would have given them a LOT more than the rando they'll get with their compensatory draft pick. Maybe they still think they have hopes of making the wild card, or of resigning him. But if they'd dealt him they could have gotten some really good prospects.

Here's hoping that the Astros and Yankees beat up on each other in the LDS and then we beat the Yankees in the LCS. To me winning the World Series wouldn't feel as great if it doesn't go through the Yankees. If I had a choice between knocking the Yankees out of the playoffs and losing the next round, or winning it all but not ending that curse, it would be a tough call. I mean, I know you have to go with the championship. But honestly, if we beat the Yankees in a one-game wild card game and then got swept in the divisional round, I would be deliriously happy. I am so tired of being their stupid stepping stone. This time I want to be the one to end their season, forever.

MLBTR says Dyson had a top-ten ground ball rate last year. I wish our infield was as good as our outfield. But he sounds like a good guy to have when you need a double play.

But isn't that what's happening now? We clung to our prospects and now we're competing? I'm okay with that, personally. I'd rather have a shot at long-range success built on a rotation of Graterol, Duran, and Balazovic than trade them for some flaky reliever who is only marginally more reliable than the next guy. The Mets trading top prospects for Diaz is a perfect example of what people are clamoring for. That was a fiasco and was not that unusual. No reliever is a sure thing. I'd rather roll the dice on Graterol himself in the bullpen than trade him for a reliever.

The Twins don't just need pitching this year. Losing two of your top three pitching prospects, who both have the potential to be better than Ray and cost controlled for six years, is a steep price. I wouldn't pay that for 1.5 years of much more expensive pitching. I don't think a few starts in the playoffs by Ray instead of Pineda is worth losing the potential for sustained success. Young pitchers with high-end upside are very hard to find. If the Twins' window is going to be extended past next year, it's going to take several of those young pitchers panning out. Neither is a sure thing but you've got to have some dice to roll and those guys have a realistic chance to be 40% of a playoff rotation.

re: "Buxton's highlight grab in the bottom of the fourth had a xBA (expected batting average) of .670 and a catch probability of five percent." If there is only a 5% chance of a ball being caught, wouldn't the expected batting average be .950? Or if there is an xBA of .670, shouldn't there be a catch probability of 33%? Those are the only two options, a hit or a catch, right? I'm not being sarcastic, I really just don't understand this. Okay, I just looked it up (duh), and it makes sense now! For those interested (and ignorant, like me): xBA only takes into account exit velocity and launch angle, and how fast the hitter is, but not whether it's hit toward a fielder. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-batting-average. Catch probability takes into account how far the fielder has to run, how much time he has to get there, how close he is to a wall, and which direction he has to run. http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/catch-probability. So you could hit a line drive into the gap, or right at the center fielder, and they would look the same on xBA, but very different on catch probability. Makes sense.

I love it. If anyone can spot and correct a glass it's this coaching staff. I also like that this year is such an anomaly for him. He's never been this bad or walked this many people before. In his case, regression to the mean would be great!

I think he would cost extra because he's such a fan favorite, and a link to their WS wins. They're not going to be valuing him based on future production. It would be like trading Joe Mauer. It might happen as a favor, if he wanted to go to a playoff team. And I agree with the point above that he might not be a huge upgrade over Gibson. I think Gibson's stuff could play well in the playoffs. Odorizzi makes me nervous though. All those strikeouts on high fastballs could become dingers against the Yankees. I am just not convinced Odo, Perez or Pineda could subdue a top team. So I'd be fine with MadBum, if the cost was based on his projected future production. But they'd probably do better to find someone on the way up than the way down, like a Ryan Pressly, not a "proven closer" or former star with "playoff experience."

The Twins could lose 19 straight series and still be above .500. They could have a losing record the entire rest of the season and still win 90 games. They could lose 9 straight series, and the Indians could win 9 straight series, and the Twins would still be ahead of the Indians. According to Fangraphs, the Twins have a higher chance of winning the World Series (7.2%) than than they do of not making the playoffs (5%). Just phenomenal.

Not too long ago Pineda would have been our number one: a former Yankee, throws 95 mph, paid $10 million as a free agent. We've had worse starters pitching our season opener. Hell yeah I'll take that as a number five. And he's still getting better.

Yeah--and ask about Bumgarner while they're at it!

So far the story of the off season has continued to tthe story of the season: the Twins have what looks to be an explosive lineup top to bottom that could challenge the Indians in a weak AL central--making their refusal to dip into the loaded free agent market for relievers except for one bargain basement closer completely inexplicable. I know their plan is to invest in bullpen help via midseason trades if they prove they can stay competitive, but by then it may be too late. The bullpen has already blown two winnable games, and looked scary in a couple more, and it's not even mid-April. Six games by mid-season could cost them the division. I know every bullpen blows a game now and then. But it's not normal to gift seven free passes in a row. And yes I'm counting Odorizzi's contributions, because with a deeper bullpen he wouldn't have been left in that long.

If he was willing to sign for 1/16M or 2/30M, he would not be a free agent right now. The Twins would jump at that (or should anyway), but so would every other team.

I agree about not rushing him back. What about his play last season shows he would perform better than Gonzalez or Astudillo right off the bat, especially coming off an injury? See what he can do at AAA first. If he's hitting like 2017, hitch your wagon to him and go for a ride. But wait and make sure 2018 is behind him first.

While Gonzalez would seem to push Astudillo out of the utility player role, there's a good chance that could change. Gonzalez is only the utility player until someone gets hurt or gets benched. As Bonnes and Gleeman pointed out on the podcast, there are question marks to make it through the year at several positions: Sano could get hurt or moved from third or demoted; Schoop could fail to bounce back; and an injury could occur at just about any position. The benefit of Gonzalez is he can fill in almost anywhere as a starter without a big drop off. And when that happens, Astudillo or Adrianza would probably replace him in the utility role. Since Astudillo can also catch, and is a better hitter, he'll have a good shot at replacing Gonzalez when he becomes a starter.

Way too early to give up on him learning a third pitch! A starter is much more valuable than a reliever. Give him a couple years to master a changeup. Only reason to call him up this year is if he's the difference maker in a pennant race, like St. Louis used to do with their phenoms. If that happens, great. But otherwise the next two years should focus on his changeup and curve. Why start his free agent clock before then, and save his best years for the Yankees?

The problem with using him in the majors as a reliever is that he will concentrate on using his best pitches, to get people out. What he needs to do is improve his secondary pitches. You can't do that in the majors, with games on the line. That's what the minor leagues are for. If the goal is to succeed as a starter, keep him in AAA, where he can focus on improving his secondary pitches. Only in the minors can he afford to use his least effective pitches, even when it's not the best way to get batters out. That's exactly what he needs to do: Throw lots of curveballs and sliders, even if it means getting knocked around a little. And when they stop hitting them, THEN he's ready for the majors. And he'll arrive with four pitches, as good as he can make them without facing MLB hitters, and take it from there. I don't get why people say he'll improve faster in the majors, and is wasting his time in the minors. Can he work on his weaker off speed pitches in real games? Maybe I'm wrong, and he can work on his other pitches on the side, while going fastball/slider in games. I don't see it though. At some point he needs to use them to improve. To me, the only real justification for stunting the development of a potential starter is if you're in a pennant race. If every out counts, and you've got a fireballer who can help you in the pen right now, sure, screw the future and go for it. But for where the Twins are now, I would say, If you want to make him a reliever, do it because you're sure he'll never master a changeup or a curve. But if there's still hope, give the guy a chance to reach his potential. If our real window is a year or two away, do what gives you the best chance of turning him into a top of the line starter. And if he's not ready yet, do what you can to get him there. Which is to focus on his secondary pitches, not the ones he's already mastered. If the season goes surprisingly well, and the Twins are in contention, and you need another arm, grab him from AAA and throw him in the bullpen. He'll be even better for having worked on his secondary pitches. But unless you think his offspeed pitches are hopeless and are ready to make him a reliever permanently, I wouldn't pull the plug quite yet. But the only point in making him a reliever now is if the Twins are in win-now mode, and they really need him; or if they plan to throw him out there when the game is already lost, and he can experiment without a cost. If the Twins get so far out of the race that they're throwing in the towel, I guess they could let him work on his curve and change with major league batters then, too, even if it means getting knocked around. But otherwise, I'd let him work on his off speed pitches in AAA.

Seems like a good guy to lock up long-term. If he turns into an ace, you have a star locked up at an almost affordable rate. If he remains inconsistent his whole career, well I'd rather pay a home-grown talent who is fun to watch and a good guy. And even if he never becomes a number one, he'll still be useful somewhere in the rotation, and you need those guys too. The only truly terrible scenario is a bad injury. I'd say, insure the contract, and keep him around. I really don't want to see him pitching for the Yankees.

Baseball-reference.com projected Mejia to have a 3.87 ERA in 2019. Martin Perez they projected to have a 4.85 ERA. That's moving the needle quite a lot, actually. Just in the wrong direction.

How about he just doesn't run full speed into walls? Unless it's a close game in the playoffs or a playoff race, pull up, man! That's like jumping out of your car before it stops moving, every time you park, to prove your commitment to getting to work on time. Save that for when something is really at stake. Otherwise you're reducing your value to your employer, or your team, not increasing it. And not by a little -- by a lot. Which hurts your team more: not slamming into a wall for a ball you probably won't catch anyway? Or making them play for three months without their star center-fielder? I respect his dedication and effort, but he's not doing anyone any favors by courting injury. Would you run out in front of traffic to retrieve a quarter, to help support your family? That shows extreme dedication and self-sacrifice. But it's a terrible way to put food on your family's table, because eventually they'll lose your breadwinning efforts for a long spell, if not permanently. If you care about your family, don't run in front of cars. If you care about your team, don't run into walls. Hell, even if you don't care about your team, do it for yourself. You've got a big contract waiting, but only if you stay healthy. At this rate, by the time he hits free agency his career could be over.