Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

drivlikejehu

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Ryan isn't required to give interviews. So if he doesn't want to talk about the team, he can simply not talk about the team. I think Twins fans need to seriously reconsider their willingness to financially support a team that is not just mismanaged, but also deeply dishonest. The team took hundreds of millions in taxpayer dollars in exchange for a lie- that they would put the new revenue to use. At least Ryan is honest about the fact wins and losses don't matter to him, fans don't matter to him. Strutting around as an 'old school' GM is what matters to him.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Surprising? Not at all. But I'm not sure fans should be happy when the GM basically tells them to expect 90+ losses again, and for the foreseeable future.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Whatever fans think, the simple fact - stated in countless ways, countless times- is that the Twins are fine with the status quo. They think their way is the 'right' way and have all kinds of excuses and justifications for why they have fallen so badly. I don't think the clock will even start ticking on the current management until the prospect wave arrives and the losses continue unabated. What's truly devastating is that the greatest commodity of a talented young player is those seasons in which he is ultra cheap. But the Twins won't be able to take advantage.
  4. drivlikejehu
    He has never come close to averaging a K per inning.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Not impressed. Reminds me of Madison Boer, decent stuff, weak college strikeout numbers, not really cut out to be a starter.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Well, the Twins cheaped out. It's not like the Yankees or another big spender got him.
  7. drivlikejehu
    The slots drop off too quickly for that much brinkmanship at the top of the draft. If the Astros pass on Gray & Appel it's because they want to save more space for later.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Who was "raging" over Hicks? It's just a question of smart management- something the Twins often don't practice. Arcia didn't start the season in the Majors, so the Twins didn't lose any years of control (though they may have to pay him more in the 6th year). I'm not worried about Buxton being held back. MLB organizations often jump prospects from AA to the Majors with little or no AAA time, and if Buxton keeps playing well there's no doubt he starts next year at AA.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Wouldn't surprise me if the Twins cut a deal and then pocketed the savings.
  10. drivlikejehu
    He's better than Hernandez, at the very least, among current Twins' starters. It's pointless to waste more innings in AAA.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Here are the #4 picks from the past 10 years: Adam Loewen Tim Stauffer Jeff Niemann Ryan Zimmerman Brad Lincoln Daniel Moskos Brian Matusz Tony Sanchez Christian Colon Dylan Bundy Kevin Gausman What this says to me is - if you can get a quality Major Leaguer at #4, be happy. Other than Zimmerman, the position players have underachieved, while the pitchers have mostly gotten hurt (too early to say on the ultimate results for the more recent picks). This is of course not to say there's anything in particular about the #4 spot, but just that the draft is risky in general. I'd probably rather the Twins make an under-slot deal at #4 and build depth later, but if they really like Frazier there's nothing wrong with taking him.
  12. drivlikejehu
    I don't see Colorado passing on Bryant.
  13. drivlikejehu
    The penalties are too harsh for going over slot - particularly the loss of future picks. There is no way Boras can engineer huge over-slot payments anymore. The slot amounts fall off too quickly at the top of the draft. The overriding factor now is when a player is drafted. Going #4 is better than #5, period. If anything, Boras is going to have to be more of a lobbyist on behalf of the players he advises. I cannot fathom why or how he could cause trouble for the Twins.
  14. drivlikejehu
    I think it's a non-issue for the most part. Appel had more leverage than most college draftees, and the Pirates weren't prepared for him to fall and basically played a game of chicken with Boras. It's hard to see how a scenario like that could unfold for the Twins this year.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Using FIP as an example: it's not an experimental result. It's just a formula that incorporates events that have already transpired (e.g., strikeouts). It can't have 'error' in a statistical sense. However, the degree to which FIP (or a similar statistic) is useful depends on the properties of the underlying events. One inning pitched tells you basically nothing regardless of how you want to express the results (ERA, FIP, xFIP, etc.). After 5000 innings, you can safely use ERA without worrying about regression issues. Metrics that regress more heavily are better for small samples, because of the tendency for regression to the mean. In other words, xFIP is preferable to FIP for a 20 inning sample, because the former assumes pitchers have little control over HR/FB rates. But in reality, pitchers do have some control over that, and after a couple seasons it's better to look at FIP. Stats writers have gone to very, very great lengths breaking everything down. Just have to look for it.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Assertions are often attributed to baseball analysts despite the fact no one has ever made such claims. Nowhere has Bill James, Tom Tango, or any prominent 'sabermetrician' ever said that baseball could be completely understood by reduction to statistics. In fact, much work has to do explicitly with uncertainty. That is the case with BABIP (for pitchers - hitters have much more control). The problem with BABIP is that it takes a long time to have a reliable sample of actual events. Much longer than most pitchers' entire career. Regardless, any limitations to the use of statistics do nothing to increase the validity of other means of assessment (e.g., the 'eye test').
  17. drivlikejehu
    Of the 132 pitchers with 20+ innings so far on the season, Pelfrey ranks #132 in xFIP. He's not the same guy he was previously- and he wasn't particularly good previously. The Twins were most probably too aggressive by throwing him straight into the rotation. I understand that they wanted to start Gibson in AAA and a couple other back end options got hurt, but Pelfrey just doesn't have it. I'd start Albers over him at this point.
  18. drivlikejehu
    The Twins are the ones who have started Florimon over Escobar for the most part. But the point isn't to split hairs. Marginal guys like that are available, one way or another. The Twins got Burton for basically nothing and he's now a quality set up man. That's much more of a coup. I wasn't against the trade at all, by the way. It's just not a correct analysis to base everything on hindsight. The White Sox knew they were taking a risk. It didn't pan out. But they gave up a couple AAAA players, who just don't have much value even if they can fill a role. Someone else just as easily could do the same thing.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Florimon?
  20. drivlikejehu
    You can get players of that quality off waivers. Happens all the time. It was still a good move by the White Sox to take the chance, and it was a low-stakes trade in any case.
  21. drivlikejehu
    The fact the Twins "always" need a shortstop doesn't change the fact it's a problem. Everyone agrees on the importance of the position. The problem with pitching is that guys get hurt. Even if everyone stayed healthy, a 2015 rotation of Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks/other isn't really that good. And that's with no margin for error. It's still a major problem.
  22. drivlikejehu
    No. You can't predict exactly what will happen when prospects are ultimately called up... often it takes some time to adjust. Some never do. There are weaknesses at key places - SP, MI in particular - that will have to be addressed. I'd be happy if the Twins were competitive in 2015.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Fangraphs already has pretty much exactly that. There is a "fan scouting report," and the positional adjustment is fairly straightforward (though not 100% precise due to variation over time).
  24. drivlikejehu
    Well, actually, most MLB pitchers allow home runs on about 10% of fly balls. It's rare to be much above or below that. Matt Cain is an example of a guy who has a track record of not allowing that many. But, as it turns out, Correia might be an exception as well. In a bad way. Between 2010-2012, of the 76 pitchers who threw 450+ innings, Correia was 3rd worst. And that included 1 season in San Diego and 2 in Pittsburgh; the two who did worse (Mike Leake and AJ Burnett) both pitched in tougher environments (NY 2010-11 for Burnett since he joined Pittsburgh in 2012). Correia's current 4.8% rate is certain to rise dramatically. If he's really lucky, it might only double. That would allow him to potentially have an ERA in the low-4s if he doesn't walk anyone. But, realistically, it probably is going to more than double. He is going to get bashed, sooner or later.
  25. drivlikejehu
    It's not really about fielding for the most part. Correia has been lucky as to when he gave up hits (no one in scoring position) and is lucky to have allowed so few home runs. He actually has a below-average (high) rate of home runs allowed per fly ball in his 10 previous seasons combined; it won't be long before the balls are peppering outfield seats.
×
×
  • Create New...