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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    No, it's a contest to see who could better interpret the numbers and observations associated with this topic. You say Sano is in a tailspin, I say he'll be fine. You say his approach won't work, I say his approach will allow him to be a decent MLB starting 3rd baseman. I get that you're trying to have it both ways, so that you can't be wrong in hindsight - either Sano really does crash, in which case you were correct, or he gets back on track, and you say it's because he changed his approach just like you said he should. Sano's approach is only a problem if it means that he stinks the rest of the year. One bad week is irrelevant. So your 'concerns' are likewise irrelevant unless you think his approach will prevent him from being valuable going forward. But you won't actually predict that, because you know there's a strong likelihood he will be fine, but don't want to contradict your dire assessment.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Your response isn't based on meaningful data or analysis, so what else could it be based on? Call it 'visceral' if that suits you better. I put my predictions out there. We won't be able to compare later since you won't provide your own.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Well I can't literally see the future, no one can. Clubs have to do their best to determine what to expect from their players. That's what drives player personnel decisions . . . promotions, demotions, trades, signings, everything. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments, for both hitters and pitchers. Sano is no exception to that. He's not going to be demoted, end of story. I project a RoS RC+ of Sano of 115. I'm not afraid to put my expectations out there, because they are based on actual data, rather than a basically emotional response to someone striking out a lot for a week.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Why are you avoiding any mention of what actual numbers you expect from him over the rest of the year? I don't understand what's so difficult about it.
  5. drivlikejehu
    I'm equally aware of his numbers as you are, so I'm not "ignoring" them. The difference is that I understand how numbers vary widely over small sample sizes. Obviously Sano strikes out a lot in general, and so there will always be periods where he strikes out even more than 'a lot.' What you're not doing is making any predictions for the rest of the year. What do you project his wOBA to be, RoS? What does it mean, in terms of actual production, for Sano to be in a "long tailspin"? Those aren't rhetorical questions. If anyone is seriously thinking that Sano should be sent down, they should be able to project his future performance in comparison to the alternatives. Otherwise it's noise, not informed opinion.
  6. drivlikejehu
    So, periodically pitchers just forget that they don't need to throw him strikes? Why would he ever have a hot streak again, in his career? Are you predicting that he won't? I'll be happy to bet on his rest-of-season OPS, with an over-under of .721.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Sano has over 1700 PAs in his career. There's no validity to breaking out minuscule sample sizes in that manner. You could play games like this with basically every player and argue that their opponents figured them out, due to a stretch of 5 games.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Rooker is slashing .409/.556/.742 in June. That's just nasty. He struck out around half the time in April and May; he also dealt with some injury issues during that time. In June, his K rate has dropped dramatically, almost in half. And his walk rate has more than tripled. Small sample size, but Rooker might be getting himself back onto the prospect radar.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Sano has a RC+ of 113 and full-season WAR pace of ~3.5. He's not going to be sent down, and shouldn't be.
  10. drivlikejehu
    No help is coming. The Twins just fooled Fangraphs, Baseball America, MLB.com, and everyone else.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Fangraphs had him at 44. Most players don't take a huge discount, unless there is a particular reason . . . Wallner had no reason to cut a discount deal with the Twins, because he knew he was going to go around that general area anyway. If he really thought he was going to slip much further, he would have agreed to sign for less. A lot happens behind the scenes that fans don't see. But after the fact certain things can be deduced.
  12. drivlikejehu
    All clubs are aware of this - most MLB pitchers by definition were good enough to start at lower levels of play. Pitchers throw short bullpen sessions as part of their routine, so management knows if someone looks sharp in short stints. Sometimes a guy like Hendriks just improves after he moves on to another organization. The actual exception is when a minor league reliever pans out - they are generally seen as dubious prospects.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Um, posters here are citing neutral sources, such as Fangraphs. May want to rethink this post.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Are you suggesting that this idea has eluded the Twins' coaching staff, whose club leads MLB in RC+? What basis do you have to suggest that Sano isn't already trying to tweak his approach and mechanics? Isn't that something that basically all professional players do on a regular basis?
  15. drivlikejehu
    It's great that Rosario and Buxton made adjustments and improved as hitters. But that really has nothing at all to do with Sano. If he could magically improve, as you request, that would be nice for sure. Baseball is hard. Sano's approach means deep counts, and his power relies on swinging hard rather than focusing on contact. Every player in baseball, and every person in the world for that matter, would love to just erase their weaknesses. I don't see the point in harping on it. Sano hopefully is doing his best to improve, but beyond that there's nothing anyone on here can meaningfully say about it.
  16. drivlikejehu
    It is what it is. If he could just magically strike out less, he would. The good (walks/power) come with the bad (low BA driven by K%). There would be trade-offs if he became more aggressive earlier in the count, and most likely he would become a worse hitter.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Who crowned the Twins champions?
  18. drivlikejehu
    It doesn't matter to me, I was only pointing out why I wouldn't assume positive intent.
  19. drivlikejehu
    That assumption makes little sense with respect to posters who share virtually nothing but negative comments about a team with a 41-20 record.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Why bother posting about the OP if you didn't read it?
  21. drivlikejehu
    Two of the four are in AA. It says it right in the OP.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Hmm I thought it was pretty clear that I was being facetious. The only Twins pick I've ever criticized was Nick Burdi, under the prior regime. I personally don't try to generate an opinion out of thin air, which is all most of us have when it comes to amateurs.
  23. drivlikejehu
    The primary risk with almost all prospects is that they just aren't good enough. If they don't have the tools to make a difference, who cares if they have a mechanically sound swing? You can try to fix mechanics much easier than you can improve athleticism. That's why teams have a minor league infrastructure, to hone players' skills and get the most of out their tools.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Various posters are directly stating or heavily implying that the Twins should be making different picks (i.e., 'I'm no expert, but the Twins are screwing up.') Opinions can be informed or uninformed. We know a lot more about MLB players and can have informed opinions about them. Most TD users have virtually no real knowledge about amateur scouting or specific amateur players . . . your opinions in this case are uninformed.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Kind of impressive that the Twins have such a good record under the leadership of a front office that's apparently worse at drafting than the majority of Twins Daily users.
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