drivlikejehu

Throw temper tantrums as you see fit, but if the subject of said tantrum is the Twins off-season, well, it's far from over. But that does go hand in hand with that other message board hallmark, where posters make predictions that are hilariously wrong, but then pretend they never happened, and go back to the same line of thinking all over again. The off-season is the off-season. Much less is going on compared to the season itself. I personally don't get a baseball fix from crying nonsensically about things that haven't even happened, but hey, suit yourself.

I think there are certain basic realities that everyone agrees on. The difference is that some people, like yourself, have thrown temper tantrums over the front office's actions without a legitimate basis to do so.

Numerous posters have expressed the view that, without a big bucks pitcher, the Twins have no hope of advancing in the playoffs. Which is obviously false. Adding good players at any position increases the chances of a team making the playoffs and advancing in the playoffs. I've not seen any poster disagree with that. The problem is that spending lots of money does not ensure that a player is actually "good." Bumgarner is a prime candidate to demonstrate that reality for the thousandth time. The Twins can't afford to pay $20 million a year for an older version of Lewis Thorpe. They can afford to pay $20 million+ if the player is an actual difference-maker. This free agent class did not really include that many guys in that category. Cole and Strasburg were not possibilities (ownership wouldn't allow it even if Falvey wanted to pay Cole $50 million per year and dump salary elsewhere). The next tier really was Wheeler and Ryu, with Bumgarner a step behind. Ryu is unsigned and the Twins faced major challenges with respect to the other two, as reported by national media (i.e., not spin by local MN media). Blaming the Twins for missing basically requires you to either (1) say the media reports are false or (2) say that the Twins should have paid Wheeler $30 million+ per year. Neither of those is really a credible position to take. So again, we have a situation where the front office is being criticized on an irrational basis and with disregard for the fact that the off-season isn't over.

The OP is generally in line with my attitude, but I do think the Twins need another starter in the off-season. Between Pineda's suspension and the ever-present risk of injuries, depth is lacking at the moment. Trade deadline prices can get inflated, which also makes me wary of relying on that option except either out of desperation or due to an unexpected opportunity. There's a lot of time left in the off-season, so I'm not concerned.

I don't think Falvey really needs your pep talk. He got an extension, higher title, and undoubtedly a raise, and is on the radar of the largest organizations. Seems like people in the business think he knows his stuff, and his club just won 101 games. So I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that he'll stick with his philosophies.

This is just a really long post regurgitating the same points being made over and over; I'm not sure how it constitutes a "message to the front office" (to whom it's not even addressed) or what the purpose of it is. Saying that the front office should "act like a fan" is just about the worst suggestion possible in sports. Contrary to what a lot of people on here seem to think, it's actually pretty hard running an MLB organization. They do consider all of their options and do consider all kinds of different scenarios. The difference is that they are held accountable for their decisions. Fans aren't. The actual professionals have a lot on the line. Message board posters have nothing on the line. If someone has a question or an idea, by all means, discussion is a good thing. Restating mindless, blanket criticism does not generate meaningful discussion and really is a waste of time for everyone involved.

There are some people straining really hard to find things to complain about. Passing on a potential 5th starter, oh the horror . . .

This is a nice fictional tale you have here. Zero facts, indeed completely contrary to every single public fact about the situation. But hey, shame on Falvey! The best part is that Bumgarner isn't even that good.

The Mets are trying to win the World Series. The idea that they would trade Syndergaard is just not in line with reality. Not even worth message board conjecture.

While I'm sure it wasn't specifically the plan, the fact it happened in such quick succession at least indicates that the club was aware of the possibility of flipping Garcia. Overall it looks like something of a wash, unless Ynoa turns into an elite closer or something (possible given his raw stuff, but he still lacks command). Littell has less upside but is already a solid reliever.

I'm not sure what it means that the "average" rotation has 3 starters "clearly" better than Berrios. So for the past 20 years, you can show me 10 WS-winning rotations where that was true? I mean, that's clearly false, but by all means, show me the teams, the 3 starters, and the proof they were "clearly" better than Berrios.

It's ok, you can just admit I'm right. There is no substantive basis for the anti-Falvey critiques. There is no discussion of actual numbers, actual history, or anything like that. It's just mindless whining with no connection to the reality of winning baseball games, regular season or playoffs. None of it is objective. You have a 'feeling' that Falvey isn't doing a good job, but you don't have any ability to articulate an objective basis for that position. The fact is, in the 3 years before Falvey took over, the Twins won 43.6% of their regular season games and didn't make the playoffs. In the 3 years since, the Twins have won 54.3% of their games and made the playoffs twice. Those are things that actually happened, they aren't feelings or made up alternative scenarios. Baseball, sports, the world in general has evolved. Certain things that used to be subject to feelings and whims are now analyzed on a more objective basis. Baseball clubs try to understand how their decisions contribute to winning baseball games. It's completely changed the way front offices operate across the league. Any meaningful commentary, even by fans, should have an objective basis as well, albeit at a much simpler level than the professionals.

It is 100% false that no one had it out for them from the moment they were hired. There was a subset of posters that disagreed with firing TR, and/or disagreed with hiring Falvey, and have been critical of most every move and non-move since. I read the posts and was shocked at how quickly and vehemently that unfolded. Likewise it is completely false that it is impossible to analyze the impact of transactions. Actually it's fairly straightforward. If you swap a 4.50 ERA pitcher for a 4.00 ERA pitcher, that equates to an increased win probability per start. If the goal is to win, shouldn't discussions consider whether a move, you know, actually helps to win? That seems obvious to me. What am I missing? Is the correct method to actually just make things up out of thin air with zero support? Is that how you have a more productive discussion?

What you won't find anywhere on the site is any discussion of the actual impact Wheeler would have on the team's odds of winning the World Series, using actual numbers related to his run prevention abilities compared to the alternatives. Without analysis, demanding to sign Wheeler "at whatever price" is meaningless whining, not a serious suggestion. If you can point out even one fact-based analysis of giving Wheeler a big contract, I'll donate $100 to the charity of your choice, and share the receipt.

There are, in fact, many teams that have won the World Series without a true "ace." Most posters on this site seem to be completely unaware of this fact.

That was actually a very revealing comment by the OP. There is a consistent subset of posters, including moderators, that have had it out for Falvey from the moment he was hired. There's nothing the front office can do to please that subset. There aren't really "Falvey fans," so much as there are folks that look at the situation objectively, and then other folks that will just reflexively take the anti-front office position. The really interesting thing is how at least some of those anti- folks were TR defenders despite all the losing. The discussions, including this thread, are conspicuously lacking an objective basis. There is no discussion about how other mid-market clubs have acquired "aces." There is no cost-benefit analysis, no consideration of the actual impact one starter has on the odds of winning a World Series, nothing. Just unsupported claims that the Twins are incompetent if they don't acquire an "ace" (or actually a #3 starter so long as he's really expensive). It's a discussion lacking in almost everything except for being a vehicle to attack the front office.

There is no reason for the Twins to sign someone equal or worse than Dobnak, Thorpe, etc. That's not evidence of being cheap, it's just common sense.

I know it's just one system and is an inexact science but . . . Steamer projects Bumgarner and Thorpe to have nearly identical run prevention skills in 2020 (Thorpe actually a little better). It's hard not to look at that and get a bit queasy at the thought of paying $20 million + per year.

They'll make 2 more; Dobnak and Thorpe will compete for the temporary 5th starter job while Pineda finishes his suspension, and from there either cover for injuries or move into a long relief role.

This solidifies my expectation that they will pick up 2 more starters, one of whom will be a buy low type.

I guess every contender that missed out on Wheeler is a failure? Seems like a stretch to me. The more rational explanation is that clubs placed a value on Wheeler, and the Phillies had the highest value, or close to the highest value plus other favorable factors (e.g., geographical location). If the Twins thought Wheeler was worth $100 million to them, then offering him $125 million would have been a clear error. If the Twins enter the 2020 season with Dobnak as their #3 starter, then obviously it means they misjudged the valuation of starting pitchers, and thereby missed out on all the decent ones. Unless the Twins actually do fail to improve the rotation, the whining about Wheeler is typical, uninformed fan hysteria with no basis in reality.

A better comparison, with a Twins' angle no less, would be Kevin Tapani. That's still rather optimistic, based on how little of a track record Dobnak has.

There's really no way to excuse this, even partially. The substance issue is huge for professional baseball players . . . they know full well that they can't just take something without a very high degree of caution. The fact it may have been "accidental" doesn't change the fact that Pineda acted with complete disregard for the impact *he knew* it could have on the team. Pineda is never going to pitch for the Twins again, I don't think there's any doubt about that.

Kinda funny that Kerrigan got an honorable mention, but most of his time was in AAA and his offensive performance there (despite the 6 HRs) was actually around average for the league.

Relative to his league, Gordon's offensive performance in Rochester is similar to what Lewis did in Ft. Myers.