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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    OK, let's take a look then: "1. Pick up some guys to keep the beer and hot dogs selling (you can agree or disagree if these were the guys you wanted, but they were purchased)." This would be a marketing strategy, not a plan to win. Since winning is what leads to increased attendance, that would be a rather horrible plan, considering the fact that guys like Stauffer and Santana have zero impact on "beer and hot dogs" being sold. "2. Watch the development of the minors for some mid to late-season calls ups." All teams do this every year, it's not a "plan" anymore than the Twins "plan" to play 162 games. "3. Tread water near .500." That is a hope/wish, not a plan. "4. Likely be out of the playoff hunt, and if all goes okay, trade Milone, Hunter, Stauffer, Boyer, and any other marginal player, if possible." If they are near .500, would they be out of the hunt? That doesn't make sense. But also, none of those guys have trade value, so that would be a bad plan regardless. "5. September: Call up youth (keep the hot dogs and beer selling even though the season is over)." All teams do this every year. "6. 2016: Sell hope for the future." The Twins marketing dept. has been doing this for years. Unfortunately, only wins can get the job done.
  2. drivlikejehu
    I don't see what evidence there is that the Twins really have a plan or that, to the extent they did have one, the current season is conforming to it. It's a long season. You don't get a prize for being .500 in May. Of course it beats getting off to a bad start, but we've been down this road before.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Maybe 'underdog' would have been the better way to describe it, but no, I don't think long relievers face the same degree of pressure as closers.
  4. drivlikejehu
    That 100% health and forkball have propelled him to an xFIP of 4.92 on the year. That's barely 5th starter level, if anything. It's a wonder his career xFIP is 4.55 without the benefit of that newfound fork.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Statistical dominance is a factor, but role should be as well. Having Shibuya over Jones makes zero sense to me... Jones was more dominant while pitching in higher leverage situations. I don't see why Shibuya made the top 6 at all, honestly. Seems like a 'nice guy' type of award.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems like Pelfrey has had bad outings for the Twins more than just "on occasion." Unless by "on occasion" you mean "the majority of all starts he has made with the Twins." The last time he had a good season was 2010. You apparently believe in time machines...
  7. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey's smoke and mirrors act seems like it will have an even shorter shelf life than I would have predicted.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Pelfrey has a career ERA of 4.51 and career xFIP of 4.55, so he's not one of those guys that has a big difference between his peripherals and his ERA. His xFIP this year? 4.58 So, yes, Pelfrey is pretty much the same as he's always been when healthy. Which is to say, not very good. This year he is 15% worse than average in xFIP, as opposed to his career mark of 11% worse.
  9. drivlikejehu
    The Twins aren't going to take Nolasco out of the rotation yet. I don't really blame them, either, though I would use the injury as an excuse to have him make a few long-relief appearances before moving back into the rotation. That would give more time for the decision to sort of make itself. Right now, Milone looks worse than both of the guys he beat out for the 5th starter role. It wasn't exactly clear cut even at the time. The Twins have no investment in him... his stuff and control have both declined compared to his time in Oakland. For that reason, it may not even matter - barring a sudden turnaround, Milone will pitch his way out of the rotation regardless. And Gibson's struggles, for a guy with a career ERA around 5.00, means that his rotation spot is not exactly set in stone either.
  10. drivlikejehu
    It's really not a hard decision. Milone is a junkballer with little upside. His peripherals are horrible. He should move to a long relief/spot starter role when Nolasco returns. Demoting May would be inexcusable mismanagement. So that's what I expect to happen.
  11. drivlikejehu
    They will say "don't play them" if they hit a pre-determined innings limit. The minor leagues are for player development, not winning at all costs.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Delmon Young had a .741 OPS at age 22 and .733 at age 23. That's right around his career averages. Luis Rivas never really improved on his age 21 performance. Those are just two quick Twins examples. Ben Grieve peaked between age 22-24 before hanging around as a lesser player for a while. Players do not develop predictably. There are certain trends of course, but the degree to which young players improve is much less than is commonly believed- something Fangraphs did a good job examining recently. Though I am optimistic about Arcia, his plate discipline issues are a real problem. I wish it was 100% certain he would overcome it, but that's not how baseball works.
  13. drivlikejehu
    The problem is that you're cherry-picking after the fact. Most young players never achieve a big breakout, either because they were good right away or because they didn't develop further. Arcia certainly has the talent, but historically speaking it is incorrect to assume that a player will massively improve just because he entered MLB at a young age. Arcia's lack of defense is a big part of the problem - it puts a ton of pressure on his bat from an overall production standpoint.
  14. drivlikejehu
    For a subpar corner OF defender, Arcia's offensive numbers are not good at all. I've long been a big Arcia fan, but he clearly is having trouble adapting to what MLB pitchers are able to do. There's no kind of swing that works against a ball in the dirt. His advice for Vargas is definitely problematic. Despite his size, Vargas isn't a classic power hitter at all. He's a switch hitter that is line-drive oriented, as opposed to consistently lofting the ball. Vargas' upside is something like his AA line of .281/.360/.472 - and to hit for that kind of average, he will need to make consistent (quality) contact.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Most players don't reach the full "upside" they had as amateurs/prospects. Considering the high risk inherent with pitching prospects and his TJ surgery, Gibson seems to be in a pretty good place right now.
  16. drivlikejehu
    He's breathing and has two legs, which I guess fits the bill at this point in time. There are probably more interesting AAAA guys around, but it's all about timing with these filler moves.
  17. drivlikejehu
    If any other team had interest in Milone, they easily could have acquired him for very little. The guy just isn't very good.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Edwin Jackson is another free agent, as are aging Ryan Dempster and Huroki Kuroda. Not only is it a huge free agent class, but clubs in general are less pitching-starved than has been the case in a long time. Everyone could still use more, but a lot of teams will think twice about paying big money to 2nd-tier or below guys. I think the Twins should just plan on making the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called) to Liriano and going from there. A one-year deal would be a nice gamble, and if he walks instead they get draft compensation.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The cap shouldn't be an issue, since they will save at least a decent amount with the Buxton slot and are allowed to go 5% over without penalty (around $600,000). Mazzilli can't make any more money by going back to college, since seniors have minimal leverage; plus, he was passed over so many times in a weak draft- how different will it be next year? But maybe he is enjoying his time at UConn enough to make up for it.
  20. drivlikejehu
    New Britain is a pitcher's park too. I'm not sure it really makes all that much difference where he starts... maybe the Twins see AA as a way to challenge Hicks but also show some confidence in him. If they think that helps a bit I don't see anything wrong with it.
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