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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    You are talking about two completely separate things - (1) does pitching less reduce injury risk? and (2) how many starters is it practicable to have? The fact that (1) is true doesn't make it possible to have 8 starters on a 25-man roster.
  2. drivlikejehu
    Kubel was a top prospect. Pinto has barely done anything in the Majors, so I don't understand that one. The other three did break out in AA, but they could hardly be more different from Walker; their prospect stock was hurt by a perceived lack of tools/upside. Mientkiewicz & Koskie in particular had superior plate discipline that was undervalued at the time. Those two also were much better than Walker has been due to their OBPs. To put it another way, all three of those breakout players showed a complete offensive approach, with average, on-base, and extra-base hits. I certainly would be interested to know if there was a mid-level prospect who was able to do one of those three things in AA and yet develop into a MLB player. Garrett Jones would be a comp, except he actually hit .311 in AA.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Cherry picking is only a problem if the argument requires a full range of data. Mine does not. Top prospects who produce in AA have a very good track record. Non top-prospects who produce in AA do not have a good track record. Walker is not a top prospect due to flaws in his game, and therefore his AA production is not predictive of future success. The examples were therefore selected appropriately.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Like I said, there are downsides to it. Even if it would reduce injuries, clubs would only change over if the positives outweighed the negatives. It is clearly wrong to say that "it must not be real," since they could avoid the 6-man rotation because the trade-offs aren't worth it, or they could avoid it in error (as baseball teams have done and continue to do with various other strategies).
  5. drivlikejehu
    I think logically it has to reduce injury risk. Pitcher injuries are from throwing pitches, causing stress on the arm, and fatigue that causes dangerous mechanical variances or structural weaknesses. Throwing fewer pitches reduces the chance of injury on both counts... there is less wear-and-tear, and pitchers have greater recovery time and therefore less risk of fatigue (if the pitches per start remains constant). The problem with it is that you only get 6 relievers, unless you go with no bench like the Twins, and also that few if any teams usually have a 6th starter they want out there.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Walker has an OPS of .888. Let's see how some other Twins' minor leaguers produced in AA: Dustan Mohr - .961 Michael Restovich - .834 Jeff Deardroff - .894 Terry Tiffee - .815 Luis Maza - .835 Kevin West - .910 Danny Matienzo - .826 Alex Romero - .812 Doug Deeds - .861 Brock Peterson - .858 Brian Dinkelman - .823 Joe Benson - .883 I guess I'm just confused as to why all of this production resulted in so little MLB success (Mohr had a couple OK years). Must be that the big leagues are different than the minors, and things that work in AA don't necessarily work at the highest level.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Well Walker is a decent athlete with huge raw power, that's a no-brainer lotto ticket in the 3rd round. A generic third-rounder has a minimal chance of contributing in the Majors anyway, so why not? The fact he's right-handed doesn't help, either, because it limits his platoon value. Maybe if he was a great defender in RF, but that's not the case.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Same profile Walker had as a college player. His flaws are so severe that he dropped to the 3rd round despite huge raw power. His prospect status now is mediocre for the exact same reasons.
  9. drivlikejehu
    It's a numbers game that quality front offices are better at than the Twins.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Bard was a 1st round supplemental pick.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Between going to Maryland and playing in the Cape Cod League in 2014, it's interesting they haven't heard of him, but there are a ton of players out there and Wade never hit much until this year.
  12. drivlikejehu
    A draft is generally good when players actually produce in the Majors. Doing well in the minors is nice but that is just a stepping stone to what counts. The Twins haven't gotten production from their recent draftees, and until they do, those picks cannot be labeled as a success... TBD at best.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I'm not impressed with Cody, but by this point the odds of getting a good big leaguer are so low that I don't have strong feelings about picks either way.
  14. drivlikejehu
    He just pitched today, and was low 90s. That's fine for a lefty if the rest of the skills are good enough. If he turns into a #2 starter what would be the grounds for complaint? Of course, it's far from guaranteed that happens, but his velocity isn't really a downside.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Jay isn't real exciting but there weren't any great alternatives remaining. Perkins is a pretty good comp, though Jay is more athletic and has a more varied repertoire that may help him remain a starter. Jay won't throw mid-90s as a starter, but low 90s isn't bad if he can locate it.
  16. drivlikejehu
    A fluky ERA doesn't make someone a "staff ace." Whether they should trade him is a slightly different question.
  17. drivlikejehu
    The average wouldn't carry over to the big league level. Pitchers and defenses aren't nearly as good in the minors... to hit for a high MLB average requires hard contact and/or superior running ability.
  18. drivlikejehu
    He's a slap hitter with an OPS of .700 in A ball at age 24... organizational player, not a prospect.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Santana should have been playing SS in AAA last year, and still this year. He's not ready offensively or defensively, and with his development set back, who knows whether his career will recover. He was always a borderline talent anyway - athletic but inconsistent, and lacking in some key skills.
  20. drivlikejehu
    The thing is that Ryan won't admit he was wrong even if the Twins end up with 90+ losses. He's good at saying words like "accountability" and what not, but even better at avoiding the actual realization of those concepts.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Sure, that's his "only problem" other than having a .250 OBP and being at -0.5 WAR on the year.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Even a 6-man rotation and 13 man staff would require one demotion. I'm just skeptical that the Twins would stop there, given Molitor's (justified) opposition to the 13 pitchers.
  23. drivlikejehu
    No matter what they do, there is going to be a roster crunch. But decisions will be made based on salary/seniority, not performance. Right now they are at 13 pitchers. Assuming no significant injuries, and assuming they go back to 12: - Milone will stay in AAA - Pressly demoted to AAA - Santana added to 25-man - May demoted to AAA Possible variations: - Twins trade for Graham and option him to AAA so that Pressly or May can pitch out of Twins bullpen - Twins demote Aaron Thompson to make room for Milone, May, or Pressly
  24. drivlikejehu
    Yeah I'm not a Milone fan, but I like May better than Pelfrey and am not going to enjoy when the former is demoted to make way for Santana. May's ERA isn't reflective of how he's pitched. Not exactly what you were discussing, but related in the sense that Pelfrey's ERA is certainly not indicative of how he will pitch going forward.
  25. drivlikejehu
    I know it seems really low at first, but I don't think its an unfair assessment. Even if he was healthy and pitching well, there would be a high level of risk just based on how often young pitchers get hurt and/or go off the rails. Stewart still has all those future risks, except they are magnified by the fact he already has injury and performance problems. It is very, very rare for a pitcher to have both of those issues for an extended period of time in A-ball and then go on the MLB success. Maybe 5% is a little low because Stewart could wind up doing OK in the bullpen. But unless you can point me to prospects that had the same issues and turned into good MLB starters, I'm going to be skeptical.
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