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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    It works that way. That's why Stanton sees 40.4% pitches in the strike zone and Dee Gordon sees 49.4%. Pitchers throw more strikes to Gordon because he's less dangerous at the plate. Sano sees the fewest strikes of any Twins hitter with significant PAs this year. The correlation between BB% and ISO is very strong. It's one thing to be like Grossman and hover around a .150 ISO, but Wade was at .116 in AA this year, which is extremely low for a corner outfielder. And he's an average defender at best. I like him well enough as a prospect but he's likely a 4th outfielder that can't play CF, which is kinda meh in terms of value. But of course there's a chance his power improves, in which case he can be a solid regular, hence his legit prospect standing.
  2. drivlikejehu
    That's a pretty big "if," given his age. The other problem is that his OBP won't hold up in the Majors unless he adds power, because pitchers will just throw it over and not worry about the consequences too much.
  3. drivlikejehu
    You're using stabilization rate to draw conclusions that aren't supported by the underlying methodology. Stabilization rate generally refers to the point at which R = .5 for the stat in question, meaning that half of the subsequent results are explained by the current results. Taking your numbers: after 70 batters faced, a pitcher's K rate would be expected to explain 50% of his rate against the next set of 70 batters. So while it's a useful concept to get a general profile of a player, it's predictive value is limited. You're also assuming that Gibson is no more inconsistent than the average player, which is not an assumption I would want to make. His 2nd half stats look particularly good compared to the first half largely because, in the first half, he was batting practice. But compared to his career numbers, nothing he is doing now indicates some kind of real change.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Pitchers frequently have significant splits within a particular year. He's faced weaker opposition, for one thing . . . random variation with respect to balls in play is another likely factor. If he was blown out every single start he wouldn't still be in the rotation - even a well below-average MLB starter can string together some solid performances. That's nothing new, it happens all the time. If you want to look at his performance by half-season, OK, since the beginning of 2015 he will have 6 half seasons, and he was bad in 4 out of the 6. So for any given half-season, there's a 1/3 chance he will be pretty good and a 2/3 chance he will be bad. Maybe that's a good ratio to you, in which case we just have an honest disagreement over SP expectations.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Gibson has an ERA of 4.97. Last year he had an ERA of 5.07. Out of 87 starters with 250+ IP in the past 2 years, Gibson ranks 77 out of 87 in ERA-. I just do not understand what more he can possibly do to prove that he isn't good. I guess he would need to be 87 out of 87, but maybe even that wouldn't matter to some on here.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Fangraphs (Rotographs) had an article on this and concluded his recent results are pretty much a reflection of the teams he's faced. Not everyone agrees but I think the evidence generally supports the idea that he hasn't really changed. Gibson's overall 2017 line is now a near carbon copy of his 2016. That's who he is . . . a borderline 5th starter at best.
  7. drivlikejehu
    I think the playoff projections pretty much have it right, the Twins' WC odds are 55% or so . . . at this point they just have to play the games. One thing though - I'd think some of the theoretically 'hard' games for various teams could be misleading, to the extent that Cleveland, Houston, etc. might be setting up for the playoffs at the end of the regular season.
  8. drivlikejehu
    I assume you mean against left-handed hitters? He's definitely not near the top among lefty relievers in general.
  9. drivlikejehu
    His prospect status is unchanged.
  10. drivlikejehu
    This is just factually wrong - it's actually very easy to be worse than Escobar. Of batters with 250+ PAs this year, he is 221/278 in RC+, and most of those players are everyday regulars, not utility guys. And when you narrow the focus to infielders, Escobar is around middle of the pack. Goodrum is a league-average hitter in AAA, which projects him to be way below average in the Majors, and his defense is basically an unknown. I mean, he's a utility player in AAA. Escobar is almost certainly better now and in the near future. How material the difference is . . . that's a different question.
  11. drivlikejehu
    There is a literal 0% chance they do not add him, you are concerned for no reason. Even if the Twins had a legit 40-man roster crunch, they would find a way, but as it happens the 40-man limit won't be an issue.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Yes
  13. drivlikejehu
    Rooker's ISO is quite high in Fort Myers - going back to 2006, it's #2 among all players with 150+ plate appearances. The top ISO was way above everyone else - .325 - and then #2-5 were bunched closer together near .290. Of those five players, one was 19, one was 20, two were/are 22, and one was 25. The 19 year-old was Giancarlo Stanton. The 20 year-old, and top ISO in that period, was Miguel Sano. The 22 year-olds are/were Rooker and Ryan Strieby, while the 25 year-old was Brock Kjeldgaard. Strieby (a first baseman) was in his 3rd pro season, but hadn't show much previously. He followed up with a monstrous season in AA and Sickels graded him as a B- prospect given his lack of defensive value, but due to injury and/or other factors Strieby never hit in AAA.
  14. drivlikejehu
    It's not, but really 'luck' is just shorthand for the fact that it's quite noisy, such that large amounts of data are needed to begin determining a pitcher's true ability.
  15. drivlikejehu
    I'd be shocked if Rooker was up before next September. The more immediate concern is his 28% strikeout rate in high-A . . . he has adjustments to make.
  16. drivlikejehu
    That BA Handbook comment is pretty much exactly what I said originally. Not sure what the issue or confusion is.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Feel free to look at his Fangraphs page for scouting grades there. Then feel free to Google for other sources, Baseball America, Perfect Game, the usual suspects. No one grades him out as having elite speed. There's a reason he lasted until #74 in the draft. Talented but not elite tools.
  18. drivlikejehu
    I'd definitely have him top 20. I only pointed out that he "might" be short on power for a corner outfield spot. I don't really see how that's a controversial statement.
  19. drivlikejehu
    His actual run times aren't anything special, especially for CF. And speed peaks young, so it will only decline in the future. Errors are an irrelevant statistic for a rookie ball OF. And no one 'looks like' a future star because of a small-sample performance in the Appy League driven in large part by an unsustainable BABIP (well over .400). He has talent but isn't a top prospect yet.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Lewis is a long-shot to stay at SS, Javier isn't a lock to stay there either, and its statistically unlikely both pan out. So there's really no issue from a position standpoint . . . of course it will be interesting to follow their development. Baddoo might be something of a tweener - not enough defense for CF but not enough bat for a corner spot - but he's definitely putting himself on the prospect map.
  21. drivlikejehu
    My opinion, informed by the facts that Vargas has a career RC+ against RHP of 93, and that Garver is performing significantly better at AAA in general. I've seen Vargas hit and don't think he's particularly good at it. Garver is admittedly something of an unknown, but I'd take my chances without hesitation.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Garver is a better hitter than Vargas, so hopefully its the former that will get more PAs at DH.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Miranda hasn't played SS at all this year - he's been at 2nd - and he was often projected at 3B before the draft. I don't see any indication that he will play SS in the future. I hope Miranda hits better at Cedar Rapids than Diaz is - his RC+ of 106 isn't good for any position, let alone 1B/DH. But that's one of many examples of guys that hit well in the Appy League but don't translate it in full-season ball.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Rooker and Walker are completely different hitters, there's no valid reason to equate the two.
  25. drivlikejehu
    "Terrific" is a bit strong. Miranda's RC+ of 114 is fairly pedestrian . . . last year, for instance, Diaz was at 149 and Blankenhorn at 142, both at 19 years of age. When Eddie Rosario was 19, he put up a RC+ of 175 there (that's the type of performance that stops being quiet). I like Miranda a lot as a prospect, but not really on the basis of his rookie ball stats.
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