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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    No one serious ever said Kyle Gibson was a "sure bet" to be Halladay, even before Gibson got hurt. He also never had 3 MLB-average off-speed pitches. If you had a legit point it wouldn't be necessary to cook up fictitious straw men.
  2. drivlikejehu
    This is just a completely false premise - there is zero chance the Twins' brass would prefer a "safe" 4th or 5th starter over a superstar . . . you are attributing a thought process to them that cannot possibly exist. Really, you are just creating a strawman opposite Greene as a way of making the latter seem like the obvious choice. None of the experts covering the draft see Greene as the obvious #1 pick, even if some think he has the most upside (though even that is far from unanimous). The Twins will only take someone they project as an impact player. That's the reality. Whether or not you agree with the pick means nothing in terms of what the team is hoping to accomplish.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Those players aren't available in this draft, so I'm not sure what your point is here. No one thinks Wright = Strasburg or Price. Wright has been effective throughout his college career . . . his track record, stuff, and approach are good across the board. I don't agree that his secondary stuff is mediocre.
  4. drivlikejehu
    The Twins have $24 million committed in 2019 and $500,000 committed in 2020 (Park option buy-out). Even with a Pohlad budget, the Twins can add contracts.
  5. drivlikejehu
    I think the Twins would be upgrading the bullpen by replacing guys like Belisle and Breslow, so current and future needs are completely aligned in that area.
  6. drivlikejehu
    It's actually very easy to argue against the Wimmers call up - I did so on another thread, so I speak from experience.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Yeah. I think I'd also rather have Wade than Blankenhorn or Diaz, and I'm not even super high on Wade . . . but when you're talking about 2nd/3rd tier upside, it seems like succeeding in higher levels takes on additional significance.
  8. drivlikejehu
    I'd rather have Kirilloff than Blankenhorn or Diaz.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Smith isn't even the best position player prospect on his own team - Haseley was much better this year and has better projection. His trend is also much more dramatic, to the extent it matters.
  10. drivlikejehu
    If you want Faedo, just sign him way below slot at #1. He has more upside than Smith anyway.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I think Smith is actually a fairly risky prospect -- his lack of defensive value and so-so in-game power are huge problems from a projection standpoint. He probably needs to significantly change his swing to produce more loft, which is certainly possible but not really what I'd be looking for at the top of the draft.
  12. drivlikejehu
    There are a lot of factors in pitcher success. Jorge obviously doesn't fool opposing hitters, whether its because his delivery isn't deceptive, his secondary pitches are easy to pick up, or whatever reason or combination of reasons. The bottom line is that starters who can't strike guys out in the minors cannot start in the Majors. It just doesn't happen. Jorge's only chance at the Major League level is to move to the bullpen in the hopes that his stuff improves significantly during short stints. There's no harm in starting him in the meantime - most MLB relievers started games in the minors. On the other hand, that means his prospect value is limited . . . Seth has him 10 spots or so too high.
  13. drivlikejehu
    One strikeout in 7 innings. Jorge isn't a future rotation piece.
  14. drivlikejehu
    A better prospect is one that has a higher expected MLB value. A guy with MLB potential in rookie ball is a better prospect than one without MLB potential in AA. You can't have much of a prospect list if you exclude most of the prospects.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Analytically, to determine next steps.
  16. drivlikejehu
    I think a lot of posters are going too far the other way, and advocating for short-term considerations that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy - trade away assets, for instance, that would have made the 2018 team and/or 2019 competitive. But in any case, the starting point isn't the standings 1/4 of the way through the season - it's a reasoned analysis of the team's ability to win for the remaining 3/4 of the season. Those aren't the same thing.
  17. drivlikejehu
    The system is weaker than a few years ago.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Well in certain years, the crop of college pitchers does not include many guys with both upside and lower risk. If a high school pitcher has ace potential and the college guy is a #4 type, it's an easy call to go with the former. The difference here is that Wright has upside.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Right, but then you are using the worst 2 games as an arbitrary dividing line. Why shouldn't it be the worst 4 games? The larger issue though is that you're suggesting those terrible performances are exceptions and the excellent performances are the norm. But there is no evidence that the Twins bullpen has been unlucky overall - their ERA is fully in line with other metrics showing that they are somewhat below average. So if anything, the runs allowed distribution has been favorable to the Twins, because so many were bunched into a couple of hopeless contests. The better bet in the future is that runs will be allowed on a more distributed basis, which will have a greater negative impact on the team because of leverage.
  20. drivlikejehu
    It doesn't work that way. You can't take away the Twins' bullpen implosions and then keep them in place for every other team. Well, you can I guess, but it's a meaningless exercise that proves nothing. Now, the bullpen has been better than expected, but there are still a lot of marginal arms in there. The quality is pretty much Duffey, and then Rogers as a lefty specialist. Kintzler is okay. There's nothing beyond that except the hope that Pressly finally gets it together.
  21. drivlikejehu
    I have Slegers higher. He's an unusual prospect to some extent because of his height . . . I think he's a step above the so-so reliever prospects since he has a chance to start and also potential out of the bullpen if starting doesn't pan out. Wells is intriguing but he's just pitched too few innings and at low levels to really move up too much yet.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Gore is a HS pitcher. But with respect to Greene's potential, this is the wrong way to look at it. For every McKay or Wright that took major steps forward in college, 10 or 20 pitchers improved to a far lesser extent. Even though Greene throws hard, he does still need a lot of development, and the track record of HS players in both college and professional ball demonstrates a high level of uncertainty. Some definitely do improve dramatically, and Greene would be scary good if that happened and he stayed healthy. But that's not really a high percentage outcome. His upside is such that he belongs high in the draft . . . he just doesn't belong at #1 if there's a more advanced pitcher that also has high upside.
  23. drivlikejehu
    The object of the offense is to avoid outs. The object of the pitching staff/defense is to get outs. The only way to avoid outs effectively is to be a good hitter. There are different kinds of hitters, which results in an uneven distribution of various events (runs scored, RBI, etc.). Those are accounting items that have basically no relevance to player valuation. A lineup with 9 players that walked every plate appearance would of course score an infinite number of runs and each batter would have an infinite number of RBIs. Similarly, a lineup in which every batter always homered would have an infinite number of runs and RBIs. Of course, a home run is more valuable than a walk - but the reason for this is still avoiding outs. If a batter walks, subsequent batters may get out and the runner would be stranded. A home run, by contrast, removes that possibility. Power therefore is of obvious value, which of course is reflected by wOBA, RC+, etc.
  24. drivlikejehu
    There is no reason to ever expect other organizations to overpay for Twins players or prospects. Any talk of trading Gordon is academic, of course; the Twins aren't going to do it.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Grossman is going to start getting more strikes. Until this year, he still chased a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone, and didn't have a great contact rate on balls or strikes. He was patient in his approach, which led to a good walk rate but also a good number of strikeouts. Now, he has dramatically reduced how often he chases, while also making more contact across the board. His power has been stable. What will be interesting is whether, when he starts getting more strikes, he is able to increase his power numbers.
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