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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    That's not going to be close to the actual 2020 lineup.
  2. drivlikejehu
    I have vague but fond memories of Butch Huskey. I was a rather young baseball fan when he spent a couple of years in nearby Norfolk, Virginia. In 1995 he was the power attraction on a team known for its pitching, with the 'Generation K' of Isringhausen, Wilson, and Pulsipher seemingly poised to take the league by storm. Carl Everett, Alex Ochoa, Paul Byrd, and Jay Payton were also on that club.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Suzuki had a WAR of 0.6 in 2016, and that doesn't include his bad pitch framing but does include his 'strengths,' such as they are. The year before he was below replacement level, again not even factoring in his lack of pitch framing. He is really, really bad - arguably a below replacement level projection for 2017 and beyond. Castro is not the greatest or anything, but I'm hoping the Twins adopt a fairly straightforward platoon arrangement so that he doesn't face too many lefties. After a little AAA time, hopefully Garver can be effective as a platoon mate. Between the two of them, they could easily have above-average offensive production for the position along with solid run prevention. Garver (or Murphy) of course will be making the minimum or close to it for the next few years, so if that approach panned out, it would be a bargain overall.
  4. drivlikejehu
    In a full season, Simmons is worth 3-4 WAR (injuries have cut into his playing time a bit in the past 2 years - but just talking skill set here). That's good for 5-10 range across MLB at the position. In other words, a well above-average starting player. However, Simmons is a far better hitter than Vielma. The stronger comparison is with John McDonald, who played 14 seasons due to his defensive wizardry - but always in a part time role. His career WAR total was 0.7. I hope Vielma can improve to the point where he can provide a little more offense as part of a super-utility role. The 'analytical world' has most definitely not made hitter strikeouts more frowned upon. The exact opposite is true. However, at a certain point they become a symptom of a larger problem.
  5. drivlikejehu
    I don't have a problem with the Twins retaining Antony, at least for the time being. Access to his institutional knowledge can make it easier for Falvey and Levine to change things. In a year or two, Antony will either carve out a role that Falvey and Levine think he's suited for, or he'll move on. At this point I'm more curious about what they do for scouting & player personnel positions, and so far as bringing in analytical resources.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Well right, though a rebuilding team may value improved production in future years if that is a benefit of playing someone else instead of Mauer in the present.
  7. drivlikejehu
    You keep saying this but it isn't accurate. Mauer's WAR $ value is an abstract concept that has zero connection to the Twins' payroll costs (and, by extension, P&L). The "value" of Mauer's production is an on-field baseball quantity that is very loosely related to the overall business of the team. The business of the team is best served by winning. So winning more by letting Mauer go is an obviously correct move, if possible, because the Twins win more by having a greater overall level of on-field production. Whether Mauer is "worth" $10 million, $15 million, or some other amount is completely meaningless from a business standpoint.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Businesses need customers. The Twins do benefit from some MLB-wide earnings but they certainly rely heavily on ticket sales, radio & TV revenue, etc. due to Twins fans specifically. So you individually, and Twins fans collectively, are inseparable from the business of Twins baseball.
  9. drivlikejehu
    For capital assets, yes, depreciation is often mandatory for financial accounting and tax purposes. States follow federal tax depreciation rules for the most part, save sometimes for bonus depreciation. For the portion of Target Field that the Twins paid for, for instance, they would depreciate the structure over 39 years for tax, concessions equipment over 5 years, and so on. But teams do not treat players like capital assets, even though baseball contracts do have some characteristics of a capital investment. They treat payroll like . . . payroll. I don't know how else they could really do it, since it would be a pro forma method of accounting that they couldn't use for anything other than internal decision-making. Major Leauge Ready, on 02 Nov 2016 - 9:59 PM, said: A simple google search contradicts you because you misunderstand "return." A sunk cost is one that has been incurred and cannot be recovered. The financial commitment to a player cannot be recovered financially - on-field production is irrelevant from that standpoint, though of course a team will want to keep productive players.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Any decently-run business understands the concept of sunk costs. Companies cut investments loose all the time. So the idea that it's unrealistic to make decisions based on future returns, rather than past commitments, is just factually incorrect. I'd love some real world examples that show otherwise - that companies decided they had to stick with a sunk cost rather than move on to something with more future potential. SEC filers have to disclose a lot of their major decisions, so if it happens with regularity then there should be huge numbers of examples that can be shown. One area where some fans are unrealistic is the matter of annual player budgets - for instance, suggesting that a lower budget in one year should essentially allow for the 'savings' to be allocated to another year. Businesses don't treat operating expenses that way and so its no surprise baseball teams don't.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Well, Heyward is legitimately very good on defense, so I'm not sure how WAR is "wrong" to incorporate his defensive stats. Turns out that corner OF defense is actually pretty important.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Definitely would appear to be a strong hire, if accurate. Considering Levine is already the #2 in Texas, I assume it confirms that the Twins' GM will have a lot of day-to-day decision-making responsibility, making it a real promotion even though his place in the org hierarchy will stay the same.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Is that really Stewart's stuff though? Minor league velocities tend to be exaggerated, and there's been back and forth in the past about how effective his slider really is. I've read comments to the effect that he is sitting 90-92 with 3 OK secondary pitches, making him basically a junkballer without command. I haven't scouted him, but you're right that something doesn't add up, and the obvious explanation is that his numbers reflect the mediocre quality and location of his pitches.
  14. drivlikejehu
    I honestly struggle to see how Stewart could really be part of any trade at this point. The incentives are out of whack . . . what GM wants to give up something for a guy with such performance-related red flags? Even if that org's scouts like Stewart, no one wants to be in the position of assuming all that is a mirage. If Stewart never pans out (which is by far the most likely outcome), that GM looks like an idiot. Clubs take on risky bets like that when the cost is very low. And from the Twins' perspective, they drafted him very high and wouldn't want to deal him for a realistic return (i.e., a minimal return). So both sides of a potential negotiation are better off just leaving a guy like Stewart out of it. A couple more years of mediocrity though and he'll be a perfect "change of scenery" throw in.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.
  16. drivlikejehu
    There's no reason to think other MLB organizations would attach real value to him.
  17. drivlikejehu
    The simple fact is that pitchers with minor league K/BB rates like Stewart almost never pan out. Sure, there's a chance, just like there's a chance that basically any baseball player in the minor leagues (or beyond) can experience a dramatic improvement in ability and/or results. Say Slegers added 5 mph to his fastball - he'd be a great prospect! Maybe Stuart Turner will suddenly become an impact hitter - elite prospect! Sure, Stewart could magically turn into a good pitcher, but prospect rankings should be based on reasonable expectations, and it's not reasonable to expect anyone with Stewart's numbers to be a successful MLB starter. It's incredibly rare.
  18. drivlikejehu
    The problem with Stewart is that guys who don't strike out minor leaguers basically never succeed in the Majors. I'm not a scout, but I don't see how Stewart can be considered as anything other than a long-shot. I'd have him in the 15-20 range. I like Diaz, but would have him around 5 spots lower due to his complete lack of defensive value.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Prospect implies potential value beyond replacement level - Turner is a classic, glove-only AAAA catcher . . . there are plenty of those guys around, and while that is certainly OK from a depth perspective, there's not enough upside to justify prospect status.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Burdi has had both health and performance issues, plus is a reliever, so I'd have him lower. I'm not really high on Jorge either but there's a chance his stuff could play up in the bullpen, so I wouldn't be surprised if he ultimately makes it in that role. I would have Wade higher. He appears to be a late bloomer that continues improving, and his strike zone control + contact ability is intriguing.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Hopefully what Korn Ferry did was put only strong candidates in front of St. Peter and Pohlad, so that regardless of the outcome it would be a solid hire.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Vielma is a slap hitter . . . guys like that are now eaten alive by MLB pitchers and defenses. He needs to get a lot better at the plate just to be a utility option. Gordon has dramatically more upside offensively, far exceeding his lesser defense.
  23. drivlikejehu
    What matters is what production you get in the Majors, not how many prospects you feel good about before they get there.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Luck. Over that number of innings it's not particularly unusual. Stewart probably is better at preventing hard contact than the average AA pitcher, but that really isn't saying much. Hitters at the MLB level are so much better that even a skill in that area would be worthless without much better command and stuff.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Few, if any. I'm not sure of any objective reason why Stewart is even a top 20 Twins prospect at this point.
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