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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Rosario had a 104 RC+ in AA last year, right around league average. He was awful in the AFL - 45 RC+. He's nowhere near ready to help the Twins offensively, nor has he settled in anywhere defensively. I just hope he gets back on track. He's overrated by some fans here.
  2. drivlikejehu
    He'll probably be gone, but I'm not crazy about him. I wouldn't take a pitcher at #5 unless I was confident he could be solid with a low-90s fastball. Too many pitchers throw hard as an amateur but can't hold it over a pro workload, or get hurt, etc. Of course, you hope for as much velocity as you can get, but ideally the prospect knows how to pitch and it's not an all-or-nothing situation.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Ordinarily I'm OK with the idea of guys trying to figure it out at the MLB level (on a rebuilding team). But giving up switch-hitting is a major change for a player already producing below replacement level. I guess it probably can't make his stats any worse, since as a lefty he hit like a pitcher, but developmentally... it seems crazy to me. This is a player who is helpless against RHP. Not bad, but truly helpless in a way that is unusual for an MLB position player. And now he is making a huge change in his approach against them, on the fly, when the other aspects of his game aren't going all that great either. The difference with AAA is that the games don't really count. He would be free to tinker with his new approach without having the same pressure on each at-bat. It wouldn't have to be for long. Trying to work through all this in the Majors seems like a recipe for failure. It's certainly what I'm expecting.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Except for guys with mechanical flaws, velocity peaks young, before most are in the Majors. And since Nola's strength is his command, mechanical changes might not be a great idea. With an MLB workload he's a low 90s guy.
  5. drivlikejehu
    A minor league pitcher can of course get unlucky - that's no different. The issue is the degree to which we can tell whether it was bad luck or just bad performance. Metrics like FIP are based on relationships measured at the Major League level, and aren't meant to account for the variations in the game found in the minors (and the minor leagues themselves vary quite a bit). You are right that we can look beyond that to batted ball data, team data, and so on. But even then, there is a lot of noise involved with respect to any one pitcher. For a guy who is a giving up a lot of hits, the possibility exists that his 'true talent level' with respect to BABIP is poor. Another example would be HR/FB - something that tends to be fairly uniform at the MLB level, but that is variable in the minors and worth considering with a sufficient sample.
  6. drivlikejehu
    I don't think defense-independent metrics work for the minor leagues at all. Defense is an issue, but the larger issue is that the quality of pitching varies much more. There's a selection bias at work at the MLB level that allows for BABIP regression - only certain pitchers are good enough to be promoted to the Majors in the first place. There are minor league pitchers that allow much harder contact than would be sustainable for a big leaguer. Using a metric like FIP overrates that player because it doesn't take that possibility into account. So when a prospect is getting bashed but has a decent FIP, I don't think bad luck, I think they are doing poorly.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Reaction to the trade was largely negative with respect to the Royals. That wasn't an unusual view at all. I didn't like it, but I understand why the Royals were inclined to take a risk.
  8. drivlikejehu
    The Royals had some legitimate reasons to think they could contend. Some prospects/young players will always flame out, get injured, etc., but they may have reasonably thought they had enough quantity to overcome that. Not all risks are bad risks. Also, there's the question of how much difference Myers would make for them at this point. He's good but not great. Will they be contenders in the years that they would have had Myers? To me the problem revolves around their inability to translate prospects into MLB production. No matter what else they did, or do going forward, they lack the resources to overcome failure in that respect.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Ortiz is a non-prospect. Jorge has been worse than batting practice. His prospect status has taken a big hit.
  10. drivlikejehu
    That's not all he did during his minor league career. It's more like something he rarely did. His first full season in A-ball was solid enough given his age, but nothing special. And in his 2nd year, at Hi-A, he hit .250/.297/.421 in a full season, which is really awful. He started 2010 with a monster half-season at AA, that combined with his high draft position and tools caused his stock to soar through the roof. But that didn't really translate to AAA, with a 114 RC+ in 2010 and then 105 in 2011. He never took many walks, and his lack of pitch selectivity doomed him against MLB pitchers.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I'm not sure why pitchers have put him on so much, but I seriously doubt it's going to continue. Low-batting average, good OBP hitters are pretty much all power guys... can't think of a single exception. Hicks will either start hitting the ball with authority or his OBP will sink, and take his job with it.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, fair comparison.
  13. drivlikejehu
    None. But I like Berrios a lot. If he can handle a starter workload, I think he can be a solid #2.
  14. drivlikejehu
    The OP argued that strikeouts are overrated, a clearly false statement. You partially agreed by noting that control pitchers can be successful (let's put aside that some of your examples also struck guys out) and that strikeouts "can be a bit overrated." Who is being overrated? Who is being underrated?
  15. drivlikejehu
    Actually, Maddux, Halladay, and Oswalt all had seasons in the top 10 in strikeout rate. Not to mention, K/9 is a rough statistic - strikeout percentage is more accurate. In 1995 Maddux was #4 in strikeout % in MLB, behind Randy Johnson, Hideo Nomo, and John Smoltz. Halladay and Oswalt also posted solid strikeout rates in their prime. Strikeouts, by definition, cannot be overrated. Individual pitchers could be over- or under-rated based on strikeouts, but this is true of any statistic.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Spahn was a strikeout pitcher in his prime. He finished in the top 10 in K/9 5 times, and led the league in total strikeouts 4 consecutive seasons. Drysdale once led the league in K/9 and 6 other seasons finished in the top 10. And there's Walter Johnson... to use him as an example of strikeouts being "overrated" is absolutely laughable. He led the league in K/9 7 times and 10 other seasons finished in the top 10. He practically invented the strikeout as a key weapon for pitchers. The OP cites some good examples that prove the exact opposite of the poster's attempted point.
  17. drivlikejehu
    The Twins don't have quality depth. Their starters are dead last in xFIP and 2nd to last in ERA. What they do have is a situation where Correia and/or Pelfrey could block younger pitchers from getting an opportunity. So in that sense the notional 'depth' the Twins have is harmful.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Correia's start wasn't really that good when you consider how bad San Diego's offense is. Against them, a 4.5 ERA is well below average. And he allowed a crucial hit against their pitcher. His biggest problem is Pelfrey. Much more money is committed to Pelfrey and the Twins want to get him back in the rotation. Who else will they replace... Deduno? Not with the way he's pitching. Gibson? Seems unlikely unless he really implodes. Correia is the only real option at the moment.
  19. drivlikejehu
    I'm not panicking. Just a bit concerned. Looking at top pitching prospects, it's hard to find one that didn't post high K-rates in A-ball (an example would be Rick Porcello - but he hasn't lived up to his draft hype). Before the 2013 draft, Keith Law rated Stewart's "current" pitches this way: Fastball - 65 Curve -55 Slider - 65 Change-up - 50 That's elite stuff, not in the future, but presently. No matter what the pitch mix, A-ballers should swing and miss a lot at those caliber of pitches. The fact they aren't makes me wonder.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Overall he hasn't gotten a ton of groundballs either. It seems crazy to be concerned at this point, but... I nonetheless am a bit concerned. I just figured his raw stuff was such that low A hitters would whiff at a decent rate.
  21. drivlikejehu
    Yes "as of now" would have added some clarity to the original post, for those who could not recognize the context. But I clarified what I meant on a prior page. So why are you still going on about it?
  22. drivlikejehu
    I'm fine with passing on Kolek. Too much of his value is tied to velocity. His team lost in the playoffs because he couldn't throw strikes against high schoolers. The bust potential is huge. Gordon isn't without risk, but it's certainly less than a raw, flame-throwing high school righthander.
  23. drivlikejehu
    It's not real complicated. Right now Hicks can't hit. I don't think he's going to completely turn it around. Therefore he is not a fit for a corner OF spot in 2015, 2016, etc. However, since in 2014 there are no alternatives, he may as well play. If he does have a surprise breakout, great. Therefore, I am not "giving up on him" because he still has the opportunity to improve. But neither would I pencil him in for 2015, because as of now he's not good enough, and I doubt he will be. I guess understanding my post requires the ability to differentiate between the current year (2014) and future years (2015+).
  24. drivlikejehu
    Sure, taken out of context. But the post began by noting how bad the Twins other outfielders have been. My point was that Hicks may as well keep playing for now, as I have said consistently. However, with respect to the future, Hicks as he is now doesn't cut it. That's not a very controversial position - I guarantee you the Twins agree. Nor can any rational person be 100% certain he will dramatically improve sometime soon.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Hermann doesn't belong anywhere near an MLB roster. But I don't mind if Arcia is down there for a short period to make sure he is 100%.
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