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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Fly ball pitcher with a horrible defensive outfield. I would guess that Buxton added to the mix will instantly vault the outfield defense as a unit up to average which will be a nice cushion against any regression Hughes experiences.
  2. Dantes929
    As I said OBP has a value all its own regardless of how it is achieved. .340 is an above average OBP so it is not like Hicks is worthless especially since he is fast and getting on in front of Santana and Dozier. However, that is just defending his OBP having value. I am not saying it has enough value to keep him there. His slugging % and there fore his OPS are not high enough and I am ok with people saying it makes him less than average ( or mediocre or bad ) overall. Yes, a hit is probably more valuable than a walk but the case for that is slugging % and OPS. Maybe there is a misconception about that stat. If you get singles it is a positive thing for those two categories. If you get a 100 singles in 100 at bats your slugging % will be an excellent 1.00 as will your OBP. Walks don't count at all in slugging % and thus only have half the value of hits in OPS. Hicks has a very good and valuable OBP. If you want to attack him do it for his very poor OPS or slugging %. That is where the difference in walking vs hitting gets reflected.
  3. Dantes929
    Chief, OBP simply measures whether or not you get on base or not. Its the equivalent of saying "did you make an out or didn't you?" If you say " no I didn't make an out. I hit a home run" I would say "ok your answer is no, you didn't make an out. Now go tell slugging % and OPS about your home run ( or your single, double or triple)". OBP has a value all its own separate from how you arrived at it. Devaluing walks is like saying a guy batting .225 with all singles that gets on base at a .225 clip has pretty much the same value of a guy with a .225 average with all singles that gets on base at a .340 clip. Its simply not so.
  4. Dantes929
    Ok Mike I get what you are saying so lets just say that among 9 guys you want at least half of them to be able to get on base at a good clip. Hicks got on base at a better clip than the team average and was in the top 5 on the team and probably just a couple hits from being in the top 3. There is value in that. Can he keep it up with his low average because the pitchers won't allow it but if they are forced to throw more strikes then perhaps his average won't stay so low.
  5. Dantes929
    I don't trust the metrics but I do trust my eye somewhat. I have seen games where the other team's outfielders caught balls I thought were sure doubles and I have seen our outfielders not catch balls that should have been easy outs. Of course it affects the pitchers ERA in a big way and more importantly turns wins into losses. Arcia in right is only ok if we have Rosario, Santana or HIcks in left and Buxton in center. Pitchers need to improve on their own but giving them good outfielders will give them a significant boost.
  6. Dantes929
    Actually all OBP is created equally. Either you get on base or you do not. The advanced metric you are looking for is OPS. A walk isn't better than a hit but it is WAY better than an out. I am not defending Hicks so much as a major leaguer and I was one that never saw value in his switch hitting from the very start but I will defend OBP. 341 OBP is very good from the 9 spot no matter how it is achieved. It bothers pitchers, runs up pitch counts, bores defenders, creates run scoring opportunities, advances runners , eliminates double play possibilities and most importantly is not an out.
  7. Dantes929
    I have no problem with him getting stronger or working harder. I think he should and probably will. I am hoping it was the concussion effects that had a lot to do with his decline this year. After all, it took Morneau 3 years to recover from his. A lot of people were saying he was done all through the first two years of his recovery. Now look at him. All that said it appeared to me that Mauer did try to hit for more power by trying to pull the ball and that is what got him off to the bad start. Get stronger? Fine Swing at first pitches more? Fine. Just a little bit more will get good results. Not worried about any of that though. Go back to hitting .320 with a .400 OBP and a manager with sense to put him in the 2 spot is all I ask for. His defense at first base in one full year was plenty good. 2nd half was probably gold glove caliber. Great target and good reflexes.
  8. Dantes929
    Arcia batted .314 in 1800 plate appearances. Sano was on a very similar path with 1600 at bats until injury. Even then, I am fine with another 200 at bats before bringing him up. Buxton has 900 at bats with pretty much a full season lost. Trout had 1300 at bats before promotion. That seems like a reasonable career arc as well. Both scenarios have us seeing Buxton and Sano in 2015, maybe by June or July. That IS fast tracking.
  9. Dantes929
    What if Plouffe June/July 2012 shows up?
  10. Dantes929
    I don't consider Hicks to be a case of rushing him to the majors. He had a solid year in the minors and a fantastic spring training. You all saw what the Twins saw and were clamoring for him to be brought North. He could just as easily have gotten on a hot streak and never looked back. It also would not have surprised me if he spent more time in the minors, was even more successful there and then came and stunk it up in the majors. Twins did nothing wrong here including not having a plan B. They had no plan B for Puckett, Hunter, Span, Revere, or Gomez. Also, as long as he is sitting in the 8 or 9 spot in the order his OBP is better than Revere's at a very respectable .341. Very few established major league players can come back after sitting out a year and pick up where they left off (see Bartlett). Expecting a minor league player to come back after the layoff and promote him two levels to boot is unreasonable. Fast track yes. Faster track than Mike Trout. No.
  11. Dantes929
    If Sano does develop I would have no problem with a Plouffe/Arcia platoon. Arcia OPS .848 this year against righties and most pitchers are right handed. Plouffe .828 OPS career against lefties. We have enough true switch hitters that combining one position to get the proper splits makes some sense and leaves some good pop on the bench.
  12. Dantes929
  13. Dantes929
    I also think May is going to be pretty good. Nearly 9 SO/9 What I did notice is that his bad pitches were really, really bad. Getting ahead 0-2 and then throwing two pitches 5 feet in front of home is just wasting two pitches. The batter needs to at least be tempted to swing at the pitch. A golfer gets better when his worst shots become better. May throws enough great pitches. He just throws too many really bad pitches.
  14. Dantes929
    Swarzak has served his purpose of being a durable mid relief guy and spot starter. He also had a really, really good year in 2013. A reliever that gets into 50 games and throws 100 innings is a bullpen saver.
  15. Dantes929
    I don't think comparing guys to Duensing should be the insult some intend it to be. He had a 3.31 ERA this year. He had a 10-3 record with a 2.62 ERA over 130 innings in 2010. I see so often posters say prospects might never develop enough even to get a cup of coffee in the bigs I don't think it is such an insult to say your #9 prospect might be a league average pitcher. I know we would all like to have a system made up of only future all stars but Duensing came up big in two of our division championships. There's a place for those guys as well.
  16. Dantes929
    I agree with the other two posters that if we get anything it should be top of the rotation. Kind of wish we didn't have Nolasco. I am more patient than most and would be happy if our rotation at mid year was Hughes, Meyer, Berrios, May and Gibson and in that order. I want another guy at the top but want to see these young guys we have been reading about get their chance even if it means taking a few lumps. I would never give up on a team before a year is even started and can imagine us being competitive but the odds are next year isn't our year anyway.
  17. Dantes929
    Hu and Thorpe are the ones that intrigue me the most. Young guys with apparently great stuff and good control. Since the Twins offense is looking decent and should only get better with Sano and Buxton and if we keep Santana the quality of defensive outfield with Buxton will increase exponentially. Any position player besides Buxton should be available for trade. I do not care to part with any of Berrios, Meyer, May, Stewart, Thorpe or Hu. I liked that we got these kind of guys for Span and Revere. I wouldn't care to backtrack.
  18. Dantes929
    At least that is actually a fact. Its also a fact that he is only 23 years old and had an OPS of .831 at age 22. Way too early to judge that trade.
  19. Dantes929
    I am now officially gun shy about acquiring National League pitchers. Focus on AL East and AL West pitchers.
  20. Dantes929
    Does anyone else think maybe Hicks has turned a corner? He ended up with a better OBP than Ben Revere. Anyone have a problem with Escobar at shortstop?. Seriously, an outfield of Hicks, Santana and Arcia would not be bad and once Buxton arrives we can start talking about Santana going back to shortstop or have a really elite outfield of Hicks, Buxton and Santana.
  21. Dantes929
    I personally think the job is way overrated. Probably the most important thing is the evaluation of who should be the hitting and pitching coaches. There are no geniuses out there and I am not sure big league experience is mandatory. Honestly, if I had my choices for leadership and strategy, overall and in game, I would go with former Cretin and St. Thomas coach, Dennis Denning. Best option would be finding a young version of him.
  22. Dantes929
    I am fine with this move but lets be realistic. It will take exactly one game where a starter going strong is lifted for a reliever who fails combined with exactly one game where a starter going strong and is left in and fails for fans to start saying the new guy doesn't know what he is doing. More effect will be as a result of new pitching coach. Main thing I am hoping for is new guy puts Mauer in the 2nd spot and leaves him there.
  23. Dantes929
    I would be all for a Shields/Lester type of guy right now. They have the space and it is the kind of short term move that does not require giving up anything. Of course prospects don't always pan out but all "proven players" were at one point prospects and we have enough good ones to hang our hats on and wait for them to develop. Short term thinking got us Young for Garza and Capps for Ramos. It doesn't have to be choose 1-2 years or 6-8. I am thinking 2-4 but certainly never give up on any team. Anyway, Shields would theoretically give us several more wins and innings which will save the bullpen which if you remember a month ago cost us about 5 games from overuse. Add in development from Meyer and May and we are getting back to where we should be. As USchief said "its difficult to predict next year" we are becoming used to predicting prospects won't develop but that isn't a given. Hicks and Benson not developing (yet) has no bearing whatsoever on Sano, Meyer and Buxton.
  24. Dantes929
    Would you have traded Mike Trout three years ago for CC Sabbathia? Its ok if you say yes, I'm just saying there is the possibility that Buxton or Sano rocket to the top and the rental doesn't perform or gets hurt. The problem I have with pointing to the Royals is that they are just a team that a rebuild through the farm system didn't work. San Fran built their team the same way and won two world series. Tampa built their team the same way and got to the WS once and the league championship 3 more times playing in the East. The Twins did it back in the early 80's and again in 2002 and enjoyed good stretches of winning. Not all prospects pan out but all all stars were top prospects at one point. No need to trade any of it. I am all for pulling the trigger on one AL blue chip pitcher such as Shields or Lester. The Twins had a good offensive season and should just get better. The cupboard isn't bare for pitching either like it was the last three years. I believe there is the talent that could make up a supporting cast or better with the addition of just one good pitcher. Shields, Hughes, Gibson, and two of Meyer, May, Milone, Nolasco would suit me just fine with Barrios and Stewart among those on the fast track to help in a couple years.
  25. Dantes929
    Its true that all these things are not mutually exclusive. Having patience that the young players will develop is my major preference but that can go hand in hand with getting a top pitcher here. Think of getting Shields as being the equivalent of getting Blyleven in 1985. Think of Buxton being the shot in the arm that Knoblach was. Think of Meyer as the equivalent of a developing Viola. This team is nowhere near as off track as 2011 regardless of the similar record.
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