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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Doesn't upset me in the least. Don't know why lack of control plays better as closer or long relief than it does as a starter, though.
  2. Dantes929
    Talent, potential with some question marks. Sounds familiar. I still put the odds at about Tigers .24, Tribe, Sox, Royals at .22 each and Twins at .10. Not exactly a weak division but no standouts. Twins could win mid to upper 70s and finish last. Last year every division had at least one team that won 73 or less..
  3. Dantes929
    Liriano comes to mind and I guess he has run the full gamut from #1 to #5 while having up to 3 plus pitches. I am anxious to see Meyer but basically promotions should be earned. May had a better body of work last year than Meyer.
  4. Dantes929
    Jimmers, I am with you. The more runners on and the fewer outs the better. I even liked his attempt at a bunt hit back in 2010 that everyone criticized. It was smart but just not executed well and ended up poorly. Odds were very high for getting the bases loaded and Kubel hitting a sac fly. The only argument against is that often even in those late inning clutch at bats he will let the first strike fastball down the middle go. People just have to get over the fact that he is not a true power hitter though. If a guy is on first and he swings away the highest odds of his getting a base hit is a line drive to left with a result exactly the same as a walk. People want their heroes to be heroes I guess. They forget all the times Kirby struck out in those situations and just remember the times he came through. I prefer players going to their strengths. For Mauer it is an extremely disciplined strike zone.
  5. Dantes929
    I guess I don't embrace the idea of pitchers being devalued because they throw low 90's or high 80's. There is so much more to pitching than velocity and thinking a guy has a ceiling of DeVries or Fox just because they have the same velocity is misguided in my opinion. Nick Bcakburn in his last lousy year was low to mid 90's with his fast ball but his command wasn't great and his movement was poor. In contrast the last two times the Giants have won the WS their average velocity as a team was 90.8 which was average for the entire league and they threw the fastball less than any other team. I love a good fastball but give me a guy with command and "stuff". If a guy is doing that well and striking out people at that rate then he is different from those that have his same velocity that are not doing as well. Its true that it might not play as well in the majors but you might as well compare him to Maddux or Buehrle rather than DeVries or Fox.
  6. Dantes929
    Just my own belief but to me Mauer produces more runs than that don't show up as RBI or runs scored for him than any other player over the years. Cuddyer, Morneau, Thome, etc. were all beneficiaries of having guys on 3rd or 2nd and third with less than 2 outs where sharp base hits, ground outs and sac flies got RBI for them while Mauer got neither runs scored or RBI while helping score that run or two.
  7. Dantes929
    "For whatever reason, that performance turned into a two-year extension with the Twins last offseason." To be fair he came back from TJ surgery quicker than anyone in history and started the year with a 7.5 ERA after 5 starts. Over 11 starts in July and August he had an ERA of about 3.45 and then it was reasonable that fatigue set in over the last month. I don't know why he isn't more successful. He seems to have pretty good stuff. Command and pace of his pitching are his downfall. Really hope May has a great spring and off to a fast start in April and takes hold of that 5th spot.
  8. Dantes929
    This. Exactly this. First half he seemed to be trying to pull and he seemed to be swinging harder. That is not him. The ideal for him is for pitchers to say here is our shift, go hit into it because that is where he likes it and he seems to square up a lot more in that spot. Squaring up a higher % makes up for the fact that a higher % of those squared up are caught. Net is going to be a .320 average and a .880 OPS. Only contradiction I have is that pitchers do have a reason to pitch inside. He just does not square enough of those pitches up to make them pay for it. I think he does square when they pitch him middle out to make them pay for it regardless of the shift. The worst of all worlds is what he was doing the first half which was trying to pull the outside pitches. That has always been true of Morneau, Cuddyer, Plouffe ,etc as well. Its just that this was the first year it seemed that Mauer fell into that habit as well.
  9. Dantes929
    KGB, you may be right. Every concussion is different but the longer Monreau was removed from his concussion the better he did. Mauer even with striking out more in 2013 had an OPS of .880 as opposed to .732 last year. What was the difference in the two years when he actually swung at more first pitches? My logic says its either lingering concussion effects, trying to do more than he is capable or difference in mechanics. The last two may go hand in hand. I am looking forward to Parker's analysis.
  10. Dantes929
    I had thought he was 3rd on OBP but you are right. In his worst year of hitting he still lead the team in OBP. I have never thought even in his best years that he should be in the 3 spot. I have always thought he should be in the #2 spot. His OBP way more than compensates for his lack of speed and doubles power plays well in that spot also. I have always felt his value was as a table setter and that he was undervalued by most for the runs he would create without getting credit for runs or RBI. Moving guys to scoring position with walks or to third base for sac flies happens more than most realize. Forget double plays. If he leads the league in double plays I would expect that he also had a year of batting .320 and OBP of .400+.
  11. Dantes929
    I don't think that is the root cause or that it has caught up with him because pitchers have always known he has a lot of patience. I used to wonder about why he did it and found at least at the time when Mauer was batting .350 and Cuccyer and Young were batting .260 they had similar stats when ahead in the count. The difference was that Mauer, by taking the first pitch way more often was ahead in the count way more often. While it seems like the first pitch he takes is always a strike it just isn't true. . His career average when ahead in the count is .370 but last year it was .293. When behind in the count his career average is .254 and last year it was .201. I wish he would swing just a little bit more at the first pitch just to keep the pitcher honest and he does very well when he does swing at the first pitch but I just don't think this was his root problem in 2014
  12. Dantes929
    We have seen players swing harder and obviously step toward firs base in the effort to pull balls. Just the eye ball test but as opposed to the tendency of guys like Arcia and Morneau, Mauer does not "step in the bucket". Swinging harder though and trying to pull the ball sometimes caused lag that had the opposite effect plus when he swings harder he deems to foul more off. Might also be a result of trying to hit the ball in front of the plate which has never been his forte. I think we can all agree that one way or the other he didn't square up the ball very well when he did hit to the right side.
  13. Dantes929
    The shift is no problem in and of itself. Since pitchers now try to get him to hit into the shift they throw the ball on the outer half where he usually likes it. Last year whether the move to 1st base made him think he should try pulling the ball for power or because the shift made him want to hit to the right side Mauer was going away from what makes him great. By trying to pull he hits weak grounders and strikes out. He should embrace the shift since he will get those pitches he likes. Making better contact more often will offset the outs the shift creates. It appeared to me that he went back to his old ways in the 2nd half with much better results. IMO, Mauer, like all the hitters should focus on hitting the ball back up the middle and let their natural swing and location of the pitch dictate where the ball is batted. Do not discount effects the concussion had.
  14. Dantes929
    Yes the Sox finished ahead of the Twins but the pyth says Twins should have had 75 wins and the Sox 71 so lets start there. Adding Cabrera will definitely help but this was a bad offense even with Eaton and Abreu in a hitters park. Adding starting pitcher and relievers should improve them greatly to the tune of 81 wins or so which is a 10 game swing.. I agree with the wild card which is true of most teams. If they get help from Roden or some other player or two especially on offense really steps up it could make all the difference Chicago is always my least favorite team but I have to admit they look way better than last year on paper.
  15. Dantes929
    No such thing as objective when it comes to baseball. All have bias. The 06 Twins didn't contend until the last three days of the season? Contending does not mean the same as competitive because there are factors that are out of a team's control. 87 team would not have been contending if there was one of the top East teams in the Division. Competitive to me does not mean coming close and then losing. It means capable of winning and then either winning or losing. I am happy to have a competitive team and take my chances on contending.
  16. Dantes929
    Depends how you rank divisions. Ii simply look at how the division does as a whole. By that standard the Central was the weakest division in the American League but would still rank ahead of 2 of the National League Division. To me Division strength should be judged based on the weakest teams also and if things work out as we hope for the Twins there probably won't be any real weak teams as there have in the past and as there are in other divisions.. I am looking for a big bounce back year for Mauer for us. I am guessing Verlander is capable of a bounce back as well for the Tigers. Its true that if Detroit has a year like the 2011 Twins they could lose over 90 games but that has been true the last 3 years as well. No team can lose their two MVP players and have only three guys play over 100 games to go along with the top two pitchers having terrible years. No need to go there. Its true of all teams.
  17. Dantes929
    I think they are still favorites. They just aren't overwhelming favorites. Last 3 years they were much better than even odds to win the division. Like 3:1 or better. Now I would say more like 3-10, Twins would be 1-10 and the other teams 2-10 all give or take a couple % points. . What if they all finish 82-80?
  18. Dantes929
    If you want the pessimistic view of the Twins just go over to the Trib pages. According to many on there our 4 losing season streak is virtually a guarantee that we will have the same track record of the Royals of the late 80's, the 90's and 2000 to 2013. Yes it is our homerism that clouds our view but mainly it clouds our view of the Twins, not the other teams. If you think our view of the Twins is too cheery you can just throw out that part of the discussion. If it is not the Twins I want the Royals, Indians, Tigers and White Sox in that order so even evaluating those teams have some bias. Of course Royals fans have bias as well but your point is well taken. Royals definitely have room to grow offensively and losing Shields may not be such a huge thing. Split the difference and say their pyth results will be 87 wins and a plus or minus 3 is reasonable. .
  19. Dantes929
    I think they do have to make up 9 wins. Their skillset may make up 2 or 3 of these and their player progression may make up a few more. Essentially its the same take you have but the starting point is actually 9 wins. 87 Twins were 85-77 when the pyth said 79-83. They really didn't have a great bullpen, maybe a bit better than average defense and hardly a hit and run offense. The next year their rotation and bullpen was way better and they had 91 wins which is about what they should have. Royals rotation is probably not better for losing Shields and the pen will have a tough time matching 2014 so yes I think 4-5 win decrease is probably realistic rather than pessimistic and treading water is optimistic. I have no problem with being optimistic.
  20. Dantes929
    Interesting that every division in the American League had a winning record. American league was 26 games over .500 against the Nationals. I don't think the Central will be tougher this year as a whole but will be more competitive. I don't think KC or Detroit will be as good. Cleveland might be a bit better and the Twins and Sox should be better. Makes for a tighter race but they still have to play mostly each other and the other two divisions. I think nicksviking was pretty close except for Cleveland. I don't see the Central being 18 games below .500. Put Cleveland up there at 83-79 and you have a very tight division and if those are the numbers we are talking about then really the division is up for grabs. I think all the teams will be kind of interesting. Detroit loses their best pitcher. KC loses one of their best but defense and bullpen were huge will keep them from sinking too far. Run differential says the Twins should have won 75 and I still think the rotation and Mauer and Arcia will get them a bit better than that. In the decade of 6 division wins the Twins were often picked to finish in the 3 to 5 spots and most of those years I could easily have imagined them 5-10 of their wins going the other way.
  21. Dantes929
    "A perfect example of how much of a crapshoot the playoffs are nowadays" They always were Jimmer. Twins won in 87 with 85 wins. Cards won with 83 wins in 06. Giants won last year with 88. Playoffs are always a crapshoot. KC was a wild pitch away from being 0-1 last year in the playoffs rather than 11-4. Its why I always say no one knows what would have happened if Nathan had just saved one or two games against the Yanks or if the Twins had won game 163 back in 08. Anyone can get hot. once there.
  22. Dantes929
    Hicks has shown himself to be quite competent as a right handed batter against lefties. He has shown very little competence facing right handed pitching. Platoon and utility has value and odds are that is how he will contribute if he is to stay in the league. I would love if he proved me wrong but batting .275 in AAA for a month or two from the left side is not going to prove anything in terms of his ability to handle big league pitching from that side. Of course first he has to bat .275 from the left side in AAA which is a coin flip. Like I said, I hope he proves me wrong. I still think, without being able to prove, that if he had stuck batting righty from the get go we would not be having this discussion and would have been fine with him as full time center fielder til Buxton arrives.
  23. Dantes929
    I value OBP a great deal and remind folks that Hicks was better than Revere in this category but lets break it down even further. The .341 OBP is made up of .410 from the right side and .302 from the left side. This screams platoon so the idea of plan B to be sending down Hicks and platooning Schaefer with some one else makes no sense to me whatsoever. My guess is that if he starts the season in center batting lefty will be his downfall. If he starts in AAA he will probably either not earn promotion because of his batting lefty or eventually he will earn the promotion with a hot bat for a month and then fail in the Bigs because of his left side batting. Then everyone gives up on him which leads to losing what is likely his true value which is platooning against lefties batting righty. IMO if they send him down they should ORDER him to bat right handed all the time which is what they should have done in the first place This is his best chance at success as a full time starter but I get that it might be hard to make that adjustment. This is why the best option, and its actually a very good option is to platoon Schaeffer and Hicks. This is even a very viable and valuable option for left field for when Buxton comes up and Hunter is gone in case Rosario doesn't make good. The non starter has utility as late inning defensive replacement for Arcia.
  24. Dantes929
    Jimmers I look at baseball reference and don't see wRC+ stats for minor leaguers.. I see Vargas 2014 year in the minors was close to his career in the minors in BA and OPS which was .288 and .854. This is quite a bit better than his year with the Twins which was .274 and .772. Doesn't seem that far fetched to expect that he can continue to do slightly worse than his minor league numbers in the majors. The pitching is better but he should be getting better with more at bats as well. He was lumped with D Santana as guys that are likely to regress but I just don't see it in Vargas. Santana on the other hand had way better results in the majors than he did in the minors in both BA and OPS. I hope he can keep it up but tend to believe the minor league numbers more than the major league numbers. Valencia comes to mind. Different players but I don't expect those same lines from Santana in 2015. If he just plays good D and gives us .274 BA and .772 OPS I would be thrilled.
  25. Dantes929
    We were 14-18 against the AL East and 36-40 against the Central so the big demon switched from the right coast to the left coast and we did not beat up on the Central. Not just the AL West but San Fran and La as well. California was not kind to us.. .
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