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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I have advocated a Schaeffer/Hicks centerfield platoon but maybe if Rosario shows a lot we go with a Rosario/Hicks platoon and late inning lead holding outfield defense of Schaeffer, Rosario and Hicks which might actually be slightly above average rather than dramatically below average.. So essentially 5 outfielders. When Buxton gets here and Hunter is gone move Rosario to left and make Hicks the 4th outfielder with starts mostly against lefties. .
  2. Dantes929
    Not a big fan of Nunez or Beresford but Punto is gone so who should take their place? With Arcia and Hunter in the outfield the 4th outfielder will be used defensively late plenty often. You can count on a pinch runner for Vargas regularly and you always want to keep at least one guy on the bench for injuries. You want a bench guy with some pop and Escobar probably fits that bill but the only spot at the moment he would pinch hit for is a centerfielder. Polanco would be good but you don't want him in a reserve role at this point. I think Escobar will get a fair amount of infield rotation but otherwise I don't think Nunez or Beresford get much duty aside from late inning defense or pinch running so kind of a non issue. Am I missing someone that would be better? I don't care for those two and would maybe prefer another relief pitcher but if you are going to keep that many on the bench what are the alternatives?
  3. Dantes929
    What created the logjam was the Santana signing. Nolasco's poor year didn't help. I want May because I think he can be much better than a 5th starter but am not sold on Nolasco and don't write off Milone just based on 5 starts at the end of last year.
  4. Dantes929
    Hard time believing more foul territory helps Milone more than anyone else. You point out how much higher his road ERA is but fail to consider it is better than Gibson, Nolasco (NL) and Santana's career road ERA's. You are criticizing his worst split even though his road numbers are still about a run better than the rotation's ERA has been the last two years overall. To me the big concern is his fastball. Not because I think a guy needs to throw 95 to succeed but because I read that Milone's has dropped a couple years in a row now. 89 with a great change up and control is different than 85 with the same change up.
  5. Dantes929
    "Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national malaise directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing." Really nothing new here. Even in the prior decade when the Twins were winning 6 division titles along with a game 163 they were rarely picked to be in the top 2 and often placed at the bottom of the predictions. That's why I always pay attention but put little credence on the rankings. That's not to say they are wrong. I think the Twins are long shots to contend. That is not the same thing as having zero shot to contend. The possibility I see in them is why I keep watching. I have always liked the underdog.
  6. Dantes929
    One year the Twins had 115 fewer homers than the Jays but outscored them by 26. In 2014 the Twins scored 101 runs more than 2013 with 23 fewer homers. If you look back runs scored in the AL OBP has a closer relationship to the leader in runs scored than does home runs. In fact the team with the highest OBP had the most runs more often than not and the few times the league leader in home runs had the most runs they also had the best OBP (Yankees twice). Homers are great but it is not how most runs are scored.. I am excited about guys like Vargas and Arcia because I think they can eventually become like Thome and Morneau which is power guys that also get on base a lot. I would be thrilled for Plouffe to get 14 homers and 40 doubles again.
  7. Dantes929
    There was a time when Mauer would get intentionally walked in order to face Morneau which makes me think it would not have been ridiculous to switch them. I am not sure if the wRC stat says Mauer should be batting 4th because it doesn't say he drives in the most runners that are on base. Much of the value is that he gets on base himself.. Table setting seems to have a slight advantage over table clearing in his wRC IMO..
  8. Dantes929
    Thank you for that. It didn't feel right and I was trying to come up with a way to refute it. I always felt guys like Casilla and Gomez (circa Twins) should bunt more because it just seemed like they were successful enough to warrant it. I also always felt Puckett and Carew added quite a few points to their average (as well as OBP and possibly OPS) by doing so. I hope Buxton uses it in his arsenal as well.
  9. Dantes929
    Isn't the success rate of 49% of bunt attempts put into play a bit misleading. Lets round up and make it 50%. That's just per bunt attempt. If you commit to attempting the bunt three times in an at bat wouldn't the success rate of putting the ball in play for that at bat be closer to 87% (50% the first attempt, 25% for the 2nd and 12.5% for the third attempt). Even if you eliminate the idea of bunting on the 3rd strike your success rate of putting the ball in play is 75% with the remaining 25% leaving you still with a chance of hitting with a 2 strike count. Now it is less about whether you can put the ball in play but how successful are you when you do put the ball in play. I know I am missing a lot of nuances here. One of the positive nuances is that pitchers appear to hate batters trying to bunt for hits. It gives them something to think about in mid pitch that throws them off their rhythm as well as get them moving off the mound which many don't like and are not particularly good at. Fielders also seem to mess up a great deal more on bunts than on regular balls put into play so a successful bunt should not be defined as just for a sacrifice or for a hit but also for what doesn't show up positively in the box score which is a bunt for which the fielder makes an error.
  10. Dantes929
    "Studies in recent years have shown that lineup construction has less of a practical impact on overall scoring than many had previously believed". Can't help but think any study would be flawed. Put Nishoka and Punto at their worst in front of Cabrerra and Morneau and then Span and Mauer in the 8 and 9 spots over the entire season and compare it to Span and Mauer batting in front of Cabrerra and Morneau with Nishioka and Punto at their worst in the 8 and 9 spots. I am guessing the latter lineup would outscore the former.
  11. Dantes929
    Small unsustainable sample size but I agree that Santana should bat first and Santana was likely helped in scoring that many runs by Mauer moving him over. Platton, I understand what you are saying. Speed and hitting to the left side are what keeps Mauer from being one of the best #2 hitters ever. Doubles power and .400 OBP makes him a very very good one nonetheless..
  12. Dantes929
    I know you are talking about Mauer here and you know its an argument I have made before as well. Mauer contributes to more runs without getting an RBI or run scored than anyone I have ever seen. His value is definitely enhanced by having good hitters before and behind him. Ideally you would have a lineup full of Joe Mauer's (preferably circa before 2014) though it wouldn't be bad to have 6 of him with a few Thome, Morneau types.
  13. Dantes929
    Sorry. If the premise is he is gong to hit a home run one way or the other there is at least one bird in hand no matter what. Having possibilities of runners on makes it a bird in the hand vs a bird in the hand that has brought a couple of his friends from the bush.
  14. Dantes929
    I have always defended Hicks value at getting on base but have also said it is likely his true value is as a platoon player. Hicks batted .279 and had an OBP of .410 as a right handed batter last year. He hit .171 with a .302 OBP last year from the left side. His career shows similar gaps between right hand and left. I acknowledge that there are more right handed pitchers but being a late inning upgrade defensively in the corner spots would also have value. .410 OBP plays very well in the leadoff spot. .302 not so much. In his entire career I have only seen one AA season that argues he has any talent at all as a left handed hitter.
  15. Dantes929
    Every evaluation I have seen of Buxton is top of the order. With his toolset I don't really want him behind Mauer. I see Mauer as a table setter but blazing speed should be ahead of him rather than behind him IMO. Power should be behind him.
  16. Dantes929
    I have always considered Mauer to be a nearly ideal #2 guy even in his MVP year. I would be ok with him at leadoff if the situation merited but the spot should be Santana's to lose.. Hopefully it is just place holding until Buxton arrives.
  17. Dantes929
    Two encouraging things about that comment. First is that 6 guys that you DO care about is probably an increase over the prior three years. 2nd is that one of the names you omitted led the team in RBI last year by a pretty healthy margin and only trailed Hunter by 3. A lineup that has Plouffe in the bottom of the order is probably a threat to score some runs.
  18. Dantes929
    Span is a fair example though I have never looked at height and weight as being the necessary components of power. By all accounts Buxton has more talent than Span so even if they take the same approach Buxton should succeed better. The least movement upper half or lower I have ever seen in a player by a large margin was Paul Molitor. He hit for decent power and great average. I would be ok with a Paul Molitor with plus speed. Am hoping Buxton takes bunting seriously as well. I don't know how many avg and OBP points Puckett and Carew got from bunt base hits but am guessing it was significant.
  19. Dantes929
    Not sure why at this point you would consider the best case scenario to be a much weaker fielding 3rd baseman? He was a shortstop and has a great arm and I have read that he is a good athlete and a hard worker. Why would the best case scenario not include gold gloves?
  20. Dantes929
    Mauer's great year saw the ball barely going over the fence in the friendly homerdome. and then riding the wave of confidence to barely hit the ball over the fence at a few hitter friendly road parks. The next year saw those same balls hit the deeper wall of Target or get caught at the warning track. He could have been juicing but I am skeptical.
  21. Dantes929
    He was on a monster tear and in many ways Shane Mack was even better (AVG. OBP, OPS) I cursed it because I remembered it as the reason we lost Mack but I see Mack played about 30 games less than Puckett (and Alex Cole?). Anyone know if Mack was hurt or if he just skipped to Japan because of the rumors of the strike.
  22. Dantes929
    Of course no one is built like Kirby Puckett.
  23. Dantes929
    I guess it depends on perspective. To me it looked like Mauer swung harder and tried to pull the ball more last year, gained no power and lost 50 points in average. I certainly cannot imagine him with a leg kick and don't believe everyone is built that way. I would prefer Arcia read this article to learn how to harness his swing in order to be able to hit for average and power rather than just power. I believe he has the talent, just not the skill yet.
  24. Dantes929
    He keeps his weight back, his head still and he strides toward the pitcher. It also appears he is swinging no harder but rather letting improved mechanics power his swing. He is trying to drive the ball rather than pull the ball. He used all fields so he hit for power and average. Arcia should watch it over and over again, not for the leg kick but for the balance and plate coverage.
  25. Dantes929
    "The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club had they hit more long balls." Kind of meaningless. They did hit more home runs in 2013 but scored fewer runs. I'll take OBP but they don't have to be mutually exclusive. Morneau and Thome were great OBP guys with excellent power. Am hoping our young guys can combine the two as well.
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