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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Is it really so far fetched to imagine May, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Santana and Berrios to have good seasons all at once. It would have a profound effect on the results. Notice 4 of those named are starting pitchers (hopefully).
  2. Dantes929
    Its true. You can look at that list and see that of those that are predicted to get worse none of them were young guys. The only young guy that can even possibly have a sophomore slump is Kepler and its not like his year, except for 2 weeks was really all that great. This is pretty unique and some will read into it that they are simply not talented. I look at the first 75 games and there were only two guys on the entire roster that met even modest expectations. One was the utility guy and one was the 4th outfielder. No team in history would thrive with that performance vs perceived talent ratio. Again, maybe they are not as talented as they were hyped to be. Only time will tell that. If there are other teams out there that were young and performed very poorly almost to a man and they promote the idea that the talent will eventually translate into good performance and wins there is certainly anecdotal evidence of young teams getting better as they mature. On a separate note, I will go out on a limb and say that Dozier is not an obvious choice for me to be worse. If you said that after the all star game in 2015 I'd have endorsed that idea because it looked like he was one dimensional and would be figured out, but I think there is a good chance that he is simply a very good hitter now. His first 75 games were horrible also and I think there is a reasonable chance of him duplicating his 2016 stats but maybe and preferably without the extreme streakiness..
  3. Dantes929
    I had no complaints in 2015 except for not being on the field the first half. His last 7 starts were in the middle of a pennant chase and they were all quality and not just quality minimum. 7 innings and 2 runs was his worst. Very ace like.
  4. Dantes929
    I am not an advocate for Spring Training being akin to a tryout but this would seem a likely case. His stint in the majors last year did not go well and I got the impression it was partly because he was trying to listen to Bert, Jack, Eddie, Ervin and Allen all at once and maybe partly nerves. If he has a good ST he should be #2 behind Santana, IMO. He has nothing to prove in AAA but confidence can be an iffy thing.
  5. Dantes929
    Happy to hear this. May was arguably our best starter at the time of the switch or at least in the middle of a pretty nice run. His command and arsenal say starter. Duffey needs to find command of his pitches again or he won't be any good as starter or reliever. If he does get it back he would be good as either. May, Berrios, Santana, Gibson, etc. Capable of doing well. As always, its up to them.
  6. Dantes929
    One thing in the article that doesn't get much attention is the part about driving the ball the other way more. No matter what Ortiz has said, learning to go with the pitch is not a bad thing and being a pull hitter is not the same thing as trying to pull the ball. Dozier was a pull hitter in 2015 who tried to pull the ball and got enough pitches to pull that made it work for a while. Once they stopped pitching him up and in, trying to pull the ball no longer worked. I give him all the credit in the world for changing his approach with great results. He still pulls the ball a lot and there is nothing wrong with that but he is no longer one dimensional as a hitter. Stepping toward the pitcher is an underrated skill and Sano making the effort to be more than just an all or nothing swinger is a good thing.
  7. Dantes929
    Of course there are paths to above average. The simplest one is for enough of the current players to play better. The Twins had a lot of young guys that played really poorly and two that played like we expected them to or better. So of course the tone is "what if everyone else continues to play poorly and then the two that actually played well play poorly also." I understand that the last 5 years have conditioned many to think that way but can't we at least consider the possibility that Berrios will be better than Nolasco and that May can be better than Milone and that Gibson can pitch more like 2015 than he did in 2016 and that 2015 is more a reflection of Sano than 2016 and that Buxton is better than a .210 hitter. and on and on. Losing begets losing until it doesn't. The last decade when we won 6 titles plus a game 163 it was a constant theme that the Twins didn't improve enough and that every other team was getting better and that the Twins would eventually have some bad breaks and lose 95 games. I said if they kept saying that year after year of course eventually they would be right. Same holds true the other way. If I say 12 of the 25 on the roster will have good years and I say it every year eventually it will come true. I still believe this team has more talent than the 2015 team when 8 guys actually played well and they had a winning record. Berrios, Gonsalves, are not interchangeable. Good Hughes is nothing like bad Hughes. Gibson is not the same every game much less every season.
  8. Dantes929
    People forget just how obscenely bad the Twins were the first 70 games in relation to their perceived and historic talent. Nunez wasn't just the only Twin having a good season. He was the only Twin not having a horrible season. Santana had a 5.10 ERA by mid June and he was our ace and still our best pitcher. Nolasco was considered the biggest bright spot on the pitching staff starting or relieving and he was 4-8 with a 5.13 ERA when we traded him away. It was reasonable to expect good performance from Jepsen, Perkins and May. I believe they blew their first 5 save opportunities before Jepsen and Perkins were done and May got hurt. Dozier was looking lost. Sano was hurt or ineffective. Plouffe had a good week and then got hurt. Even good teams need half their roster playing well to have winning records. The Twins had ONE player in Nunez doing that before Grossman had his good month. Of course the Twins could lose 100 games again if everything goes horribly wrong. I don't enter seasons wondering what would happen if everyone on the roster has a really bad year. I still consider this team to have more talent than the 2010-2014 teams and I expect better performance out of them.
  9. Dantes929
    With Berrios, Kepler, Sano and Buxton and Polanco out of prospect status, having 4 or 5 in the top 100 with 3 more high draft choices coming doesn't seem so bad to me. BTW, what took Berrios out of prospect status. What is the criteria?
  10. Dantes929
    Anything to the rumor that our new likely trading partner for Dozier is the Tampa Rays and that they are offering DeLeon and some prospects?
  11. Dantes929
    Just looked at their major league stats. Forsythe career .255 avg .721 OPS. Polanco .284 avg. .769 OPS and his splits are way better from the right side which is what the Dodgers are looking for. I looked closer and besides the obvious small sample size for Polanco, Forsythe has done better the last two years as you pointed out.
  12. Dantes929
    Looking at the stats it looks like maybe Forsythe is Polanco lite. I was skeptical of Dozier's first half of 2015 because it seemed like all he did was feast on the same pitch that they just kept giving him. Hence the slump of 2nd half 2015. Consensus was that if he could not adjust he would wallow in mediocrity. First half of 2016 seemed to confirm this even though it looked like he was trying to step toward the pitcher instead of pulling everything. Then, he took off and he was hitting everything and to all fields. He still pulls the ball but it doesn't look like he is trying to do that which makes all the difference. His quick hands and good eye serve him well and I am much more optimistic he can have a great year than I was after 2015 or even all star break 2015. Of course, hindsight might say an even trade is the right choice. You play the odds.
  13. Dantes929
    Most people are on board that a 42 home run 2nd baseman is worth more than a good prospect with a good minor league history but no major league history. Especially when the Dodgers are pitching rich and 2nd baseman weak. I don't think competition really enters into the equation much. They need. We have. So if Dozier is too much to give up for DeLeon straight up what would have to be added to Polanco for Deleon? I don't know Polanco's splits in the minors but his major league season was .857 OPS against lefties. Good prospect with good performance thus far in the majors against higher ranked prospect with no real history in the majors. I like the idea of Santana, Berrios, May, and DeLeon in the rotation. I would like it better with Dozier still on the team.
  14. Dantes929
    Our run differential said we should have been a 96 loss team and not having Perkins and Jepsen last year probably would have gotten us there. That brings your 91 losses to 84. Buxton shining for a whole season and Berrios with a winning differential equal to his 2016 losing differential of 3-7 and now you are looking at 85-77. Just a little sunshine for the day but I really think you did the heavy lifting. My three variables for win difference is more likely than yours.
  15. Dantes929
    Baseball has already become that way with shifts, relief one batter specialists, more relievers at expense of position players. Which market efficiencies are you talking about? The multiple relievers in an inning might increase odds of winning while also fueling the slower pace of a game which is still a complaint of some fans which put butts in stadiums. Roster size or expanding by one are already restrictions and rather arbitrary. Reducing the roster size might inspire market efficiencies to go back to 4 man rotations and other things. Expanding might lead to 6 man rotations and other thinigs. Its all rather arbitrary and I was really just pointing out possibilities rather than advocating anything. I am not a fan of 4 pitcher innings and I like platooning of players where it makes sense but neither are big on my list of peeves.
  16. Dantes929
    They could also leave roster size the same and put a limit on the amount of pitchers a team can have on the roster.
  17. Dantes929
    Or expand the rosters to 30 players but I am afraid they would just go with 18 man pitching staffs.
  18. Dantes929
    I argued for a couple years that the ideal outfielder would have been Hicks and Arcia as a platoon. Hicks was great against lefties and Arcia was great against righties and so would start most games but Hicks could play most late innings of games. Mauer not facing lefties makes a lot of sense now also. So does the catching spot. None of these are so special anymore that you want them to get at bats against same siders. regardless of results.
  19. Dantes929
    Must have worded my comment poorly. In 2011 Baker pitched well albeit for only 21 starts. He was the only one. In 2012 Diamond pitched well. He was the only one. In 2013 Deduno pitched well. He was the only one. In 2014 Hughes pitched well. He was the only one. . In 2016, Santana pitched well. He was the only one. In 2015 Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Santana all pitched pretty well for a pretty long stretch. Pelfrey and Hughes were good for back of rotation and not coincidentally that was our winning year.
  20. Dantes929
    To me the guys with upside are Santana, Berrios, and May. If those guys have good years it will make a world of difference. At this point I consider Gibson, Santiago and Hughes to be back of the rotation starters. Potentially good back of the rotation which also can make a world of difference. Consider that only once in the last 6 years have we had more than one starting pitcher doing well for any length of time and that was 2015. Has to happen again at some point. Doesn't it?
  21. Dantes929
    Target Center = Target Field
  22. Dantes929
    Rebuild and contention are not mutually exclusive. Problem if we move Dozier is we need to replace his offensive production and we still need a shortstop. If we keep Dozier I am fine with Polanco there. If we move him our pitching better be at least one step (DeLeon) and potentially two (Alvarez) closer to contending. Santana, DeLeon, Berrios and May are not a bad core, IMO.
  23. Dantes929
    Absurd, although it looked like a pretty good year for 2nd basemen. If we get an offer commensurate with him as the 3rd or 4th best then fine. If not, then keep him. I have no problem with starting the season with Polanco at short. I hope he has been taking reps there in the offseason.
  24. Dantes929
    This team really was snake bit from the get go. I know a lot of people were worried about starting the season with just Jepsen, May and Perkins being proven relievers and it turned out these three were the least reliable of all. Perkins was perfect in save opportunities the first half of 2015. The staff had blew 5 saves in the first few weeks. Doc Bauer talks about getting a couple guys and the rest of the staff moving down a notch and probably being adequate. In 2016 everyone had to move up three notches. The early blown games can pretty much account for the BR Pythagorean number being in the negative. They should have been 66-96. That 7 game differential is pretty rare from what I have seen..
  25. Dantes929
    There are bad signings and then there are good signings that turn out bad. Rondell White would be an example of the latter.
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