Dantes929
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Everything posted by Dantes929
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I can't tell if you really believe that or if it is sarcasm. I agree with Doc (and you?) in almost everything but would not be opposed to keeping Dozier if we don't get enough for him and keeping Polanco at short. I know a lot of people want Mauer gone but I still like him in the lineup. Vargas at DH and you are still left with catcher question marks and kind of writing on the wall that Plouffe is gone. Some people don't want to rely on unproven talent but I am fine with it. I have always said that the pitching and hitting coaches probably have more impact on a season than does a manager so player development personnel really is a big thing.
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Ninth Wonder: What To Do At Closer?
Dantes929 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Seems like Kinzler is the guy you want to come in when there are guys on 1st and 2nd with less than two out. His sinker gets double plays and he has good control. I am not saying it would have turned their season around but Perkins and Jepsen blew at least 5 save chances before the Twins even won 10 games so I am guessing the negative psychological effects and the actual 5 blown saves and no good outings from two guys that were expected to be good was significant. Sorry for the run on sentence. Considering I was relying on Perkins, Jepsen and May to be good and they were essentially horrible and then non factors I thought the pen was decent once they were gone. Not good but better than I expected from filler roles. May should be a starter. He is a decent reliever but has no dominant pitches. HIs good mix of fastball, changeup, curve ball and great control speaks toward efficient innings eater.- 63 replies
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- brandon kintzler
- jt chargois
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I would be ok with most of those moves. If Escobar is not in the plans for starting then I would maybe go with Danny Santana whose value in late innings to run for Vargas or Sano would be pretty high. I never care for giving up on a season before it starts. This isn't 2012. If Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Berrios take forward steps and our relief is good from the get go it can have very profound effects on the results. 2015 might have been a mirage in a good way but no more than 2016 was in a bad way. The talent is better than a year ago, IMO.
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I had no problem with the signing. Ichiro had a better track record in Japan but was really just as likely to bust or succeed. I did have a problem with completely relying on Valencia, Nishioaka and Casilla as a result of trading Hardy. Hindsight says we shouldn't have relied on any of them. At the time I thought the worst thing was getting rid of Hardy. We needed the stability.
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In 2007 we came off a losing season and lost our best pitcher and our best outfielder and people asked how we could possibly compete. The answer was that baseball is a team game and if enough players simply play better the results can be huge. This isn't 2011 or 12 when we were relying on Plouffe Doumit, Casilla, Nishioka,De Vries and Hendriks to step up their game. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Duffey May, and Berrios having good seasons can have a profound effect on results. I don't want to sign Cliff Lee (is he still alive?) to a big 5 year contract but if we can get a Santana similar type for less then go for it. I hate to give up on any season before it has started and especially with guys who have finally arrived and maybe just needed to get their feet wet. As far as Berrios goes I thought he looked really god last night. Down in the zone and his misses were way closer than they have been. This following a 3 inning shutout that was rained out. On a side note people say that umpires calls even out in the long haul (they don't but I really don't know how the Twins fared in that regard this season) but last night Sano was called out on a pitch that should have been a walk so instead of 1 on and no one out there was 1 out and no one on and we did not score. The bottom half Berrios even more obviously had a strike 3 on Dyson but he walked and instead of 1 out no one on they had 1 on and no one out and they scored two. Games turn on such things and it is not so much the results I am commenting on but to head off anyone saying 3 runs in 4.2 innings is a lousy outing. Baseball has more nuance than that.
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Dozier's Case For American League MVP
Dantes929 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Too bad Dozier did not combine his first half last year with the 2nd half this year. Then we would be looking at a real contender. Of course if he had the good first half this year the Twins might not be looking at 100 losses either. Sadly if Dozier didn't get hot in the 2nd half my vote would still be Nunez for MVP of the Twins. Has that kind of thing happened before? -
The first 75 games it was more difficult to see Plouffe, Sano, Park, Arcia, Escobar, Santana, Suzuki, Murphy, Buxton, Dozier, Mauer and Rosario on the team together. I'm not going to worry about Park until he performs better in the minors. I have a hard time seeing Plouffe, Sano, Vargas and Mauer on this team together. For much of his career I did not like Plouffe and now I do but still think he is the odd man out.
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Sad News on the Pitching Front: May out for Season
Dantes929 replied to HitInAPinch's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Not a chance. I am not hindsight based and if Meyer and May turned into Cy Youngs and Hicks and Buxton were all stars I am guessing those who criticized the trade would not be admitting it. If Hardy had tanked and Nishioka, Casilla and Valencia had become all stars I still would have said it was a bad move getting rid of Hardy at the time. Bad moves sometimes work out. Good moves sometimes do not. If you had said at the time that Meyer will never command the strike zone and HIcks will be awful then I might say you were right. Unfortunately, my experience is that most posters are hindsight based. I have to look no farther than 99.9% of posters demanding that Mauer be signed to the large contract at the time vs 99% of posters saying they were against it a few years later. The math doesn't work out. -
Sad News on the Pitching Front: May out for Season
Dantes929 replied to HitInAPinch's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I liked Revere and Span but I will never criticize these trades. I thought they were smart at the time. I never liked May to the bullpen and wasn't thrilled with Meyer being traded away but there is still a chance that May will return and be good as a starter and that Santiago will be useful. -
18 Reasons To Watch The Final 18 Twins Games
Dantes929 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
#8 can be broken into more numbers and probably should be. I am hoping for a rotation with Santana, Berrios and May with Gibson Duffey and Santiago vying for other spots so am intrigued how they all pitch to finish up. Gibson and Duffey's stock have definitely fallen. I still enjoy watching this team more than the previous 5 editions. I can feel something good beginning to brew in this team even with the horrible record. For some reason I still look forward to Mauer and Buxton batting most even with the monster 2nd half Dozier is having .- 39 replies
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- miguel sano
- byron buxton
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Or Blyleven or Morris or Guardado or Wally the Beer Man. Listening to Bert it sounded like Berrios was getting advice from everyone. I want to see him back up. Tell him he is up for good and that he will throw 100 pitches every 5th game and his only goal is to throw strikes.. Hoping for a rotation next year of Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May and Duffey/Santiago. Completely out of curiosity, do you prefer Gardy/Anderson? There was a decade under Anderson where the Twins threw strikes.
- 18 replies
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- jose berrios
- adam brett walker
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You said help you out so here goes. I studied this a long time ago and the numbers have changed since then, whether by age or post concussion but the concept was as follows. Mauer and Delmon Young had very similar averages on given counts. They were both great when ahead in the count, good when even in the count and pretty bad when behind in the count. Regardless of what you have heard Mauer is still only a .228 hitter when starting out 0-2. Probably better than average but still really bad. The difference between Mauer and Young then is that Mauer has been ahead in the count more often and the only way to do that is by looking at pitches. The only thing I don't like about Mauer's approach is that it doesn't keep the pitchers honest. If he would swing at the first pitch just a little bit more they would throw better stuff in more careful zones and thus allow him to see their better stuff and thus likely see more first pitch balls which puts him ahead in the count more often from which he shines. Absurd as it is I would like to see him put three pieces of paper in a hat and draw from it each at bat with one of them saying swing at a first pitch cookie. Let the pitchers see it. The result would likely be more first pitch balls. That is all just my take but the numbers supported it. Mauer and Young were much the same hitter except for patience. Young has had a nice career but no one is talking about his chances for HOF.
- 125 replies
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- joe mauer
- harmon killebrew
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I already said I would prefer the HOF be about how brightly the light shines rather than how long it shines. Don't take this to absurd extremes. 7 years with three batting titles would get my vote but I most definitely do not think he will get the votes from those who actually have one. Personally I am a little more disappointed in Hrbek who also had HOF talent but did not take the necessary steps to stay in good enough shape to do it. A little more disappointed but still not very disappointed. He was still fun to watch.
- 125 replies
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- joe mauer
- harmon killebrew
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Ok, his playoff numbers are just ok but in three of the closest pennant races in baseball history his September average and OPS were 2006 (.337) (.936) 2008 (.365) (.904) 2009 (.354) (.958) His August numbers in those years were pretty great as well. I am more of a great years vs longevity guy. (Ron Guidry could make a good case) for HOF. IMO, any guy with 3 batting titles should have a very strong case and that Mauer did it while catching and getting Gold Gloves should only help. His numbers have been hurt by his post concussion years. .401 OBP and .322 AVG look a lot better than .393 and .310 and sinking.
- 125 replies
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- joe mauer
- harmon killebrew
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Won't explain the 4 walks in an inning but I have noticed the same thing in Berrios as I did in May when he first came up. When they get ahead in the count they are trying to make the perfect pitch and invariably throw the curve balls in the dirt or the fast balls head high or the sliders a foot wide. I have no problem with throwing off the plate on 0-2 but if you are not even tempting the batter then you are truly wasting the pitches and the advantage of being ahead while running up the pitch count and evening the count to no purpose.
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He is considered a very good base runner but absolutely no evidence of that today. Thrown out three times on very unconventional plays. Probably hasn't had three like that his entire career but it sure snuffed out rallies today.
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I still think Duffey has the stuff and will figure it out but who knows. Too many question marks on the staff for me to want to give up Santana unless the return is awesome. I am certainly not writing off next year and I don't want to have to go out and try to get a guy like Santana at more cost. Why not just keep him at least for one more year. I am happy to see Nolasco gone and Berrios up even if I would not be shocked to see Nolasco do well and Berrios struggle some. I am ok with the Meyer ship sailing. I liked the Meyer/Span trade at the time so I am not going to criticize it now. Sometimes good moves don't work out.
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Since June 18 Twins are playing at a .580 clip. Sano has made contributions. I probably wouldn't change much. I would have no problem making Sano our DH and dealing either Park or Vargas down the road but no reason not to play him at 3rd for now.. Right now rotate Escobar, Polanco and Sano and a little bit of Dozier. Until Plouffe and Park rejoin there is enough playing time to go around.
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Well, to be fair Nunez has more stolen bases than anyone in the entire American League so I am not sure what isn't right about leading the Twins in that category.
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Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Dantes929 replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If a guy like Meyer has above average stuff and below average command the variables are how much above average stuff and how below average command and how likely he is to improve command.. Obviously the mix isn't viewed very positively for Meyer. On the other hand while no one really gets excited about average stuff and great control if taken literally average stuff + great command = above average pitcher. Twins have had plenty of pitchers with average or below average stuff with average or below average command. As I have said before, not all guys with 90 mph fastballs are created equally. -
He was very good last year because he had great command. His fast ball was fine because it was hitting corners and he was throwing curveballs for strikes or just off the plate. This year his command has been bad and his cruveball a bit flat.. IMO, that is all it is. He still has the stuff to be a starter. Just like Liriano and Crain and Berrios, send him down and let him work it out. In the mean time bring Berrios up because he deserves it. Sometimes it is simply up to the player. I am rooting for Duffey to find his command again and have the rotation of Berrios, Gibson, May, Duffey and Santana. The fact that there are enough question marks there make me want to keep Santana.

