Dantes929

I believe Escobar played better D than Santana and if Murphy is considered average it would probably be a slight upgrade to Suxuki. Honestly the slight uptick comment was based mostly on Buxton. I thought the overall defense was decent in 2015 and certainly better than 2014. I would really hate to take a step backward because I think the improvement was reflected in the ERA as well.

I imagine its about a lot of things. Stamina, mental preparation, batters familiarity, pitch count. Are you saying in a relatively close game a starting pitcher should never go beyond the 6th inning? If you were manager would a starter ever get to 200 innings? Would you in fact have pulled Jack Morris? I am not saying any of that would be wrong and maybe math dictates a whole different direction in handling pitching staffs. I can hardly stand the thought of even more pitching changes. I would hope that if rotation was limited to fewer innings the math would also support relievers going more than one inning or batter. Your emphasis on season long vs individual game was not lost on me. Over a season if a starter never goes beyond 6 that is potentially quite a few innings that have to be made up one way or another by relievers and I believe it is possible for a bullpen to fatigue. Again the personnel will dictate much of this. Would you ever want to replace Sandy Koufax going strong with Perkins or Boyer just because he has gone 6 innings and overall statistics tell you this is the right move? Again, not saying you are wrong. Discussing rather than arguing.

Yes, Kelly should definitely have pulled Morris in the 6th inning of game 7. I am completely kidding and liked that paragraph also but it is still personnel dependent and will always be the most 2nd guessed element in the game. I agree with the general theory of getting them out sooner if unsure but you will always have these scenarios. 1. Starter cruising along and manager replaces him in the 6th or 7th, Reliever fails and manager gets criticized for pulling starter too soon. 2. Starter cruising along, gets in trouble in the 6th or 7th and manager gets criticized for pulling starter too late. Like I said it is personnel dependent. I have memory of many times over the years of bullpen failing because of overwork resulting from short starts from the rotation. In theory the starter goes 6 innings with the lead and hands it over to Perkins, May and Jepsen. The personnel equation of that is the starter going 6 with the lead intact and the best closer in baseball in the first half turning into a poor man's Ron Davis in the 2nd half. The theory was great, the execution fell short.

That is the best post today IMO. It came down to the final series which the Mets certainly could have won and if they did would we be talking about how flame throwing starting pitching was essential? If the Jays had won which they certainly could have we would be talking about power. Fans have criticized the Twins for years for being contact hitters butt the Royals were upper echelon in runs scored despite being lower tier in home runs. They were the hardest to strike out yet I don't hear anyone calling for less power and better contact from the Twins. Royals also won a lot of games with stellar defense. Just hearing passing mention about that. . Just because the Royals made it happen with mediocre starting pitching doesn't mean that should be the new magic formula. Everyone wants the Jays hitting ability with the Royals plate discipline, the Royals defense and bullpen to go along with the Mets starting pitching. If you look at the above sentence the Royals are elite in three of the basic building blocks, not just relief corps. Another fact is that Davis threw his fastball just a little over 50% of the time and averaged 95 mph. Aren't there a lot of guys that throw harder? Everyone wants 5 Wade Davis's in their bullpen but there have been flame throwers drafted every year and because of injuries, mechanics, brain power, command, and lack of other pitches there just aren't enough to go around.and never will be for every team to have the bullpen the Royals have. Worthwhile goal certainly but starting pitching, bullpen, defense, plate discipline and power are the ingredients. The better you are in one area the lesser you need to be in another. Every team should strive to be great in all areas but like I said there is only so much to go around. If the Twins improve their defense again a little bit, have five solid starters, get better and more consistent contact and improve depth in their pen and maintain power I will be happy with 2016. Elite bullpen is great. By definition you can't have 30 elite bullpens.

"It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data." I choose to discount significantly. First off not all ERA's are considered equal. Someone that gives up 4 runs every game for 20 games is going to lose to someone that gives up 3 runs 11 games and 5.22 runs the other 9. The latter kind of defines Gibson and Santana. Secondly, according to these stats the Twins with a mediocre bullpen and average offense should be in the 60 win category. Instead the rotation was smack in the middle in ERA last season and I expect them to get better, not worse. Thirdly, it is based on a significant amount of historical data but how does it fair in historical projections? Last year Milone, Pelfrey and May outperformed their projections by a full run. Santana and Gibson by over half a run and Nolasco and Hughes under performed by a run or more. In other words, none of the projections came within a half a run of the actual results. Now with all the historical data they project Milone, Gibson, May and Duffey to be worse in 2016 than they were in 2015. They expect Nolasco to be as good as Santana. Of course it could happen but anyone want to bet on it?

"Willingham, meanwhile, yanked almost every pitch he swung at and did so with authority. He eventually passed the wisdom down to some of the current Twins. As he told Brian Dozier “the fences are a lot closer in left.” Both Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have since passed Willingham for the home run lead at Target Field but each has credited Willingham with the power guidance." This kind of anecdote always bums me out. Willingham had a great natural pull swing but in 2013 he didn't force it. He was very balanced and he always stepped toward the pitcher as Park does on that low outside pitch above. Whether in an effort to pull the ball or by trying to cheat because of injuries to me it looked like Willingham steeped a little left of center and the results dropped dramatically. Its like a long hitter in golf opening up too soon or starting out with shoulders and stance open. The result is less solid contact and less pull...Plouffe is at his best when using all fields and Dozier was exposed in the 2nd half as well. I have nothing against pulling the ball but you should't be going up there trying to pull the ball. I would not want Park to try to pull the ball like I do not want Sano to try to pull the ball. Good balance in their stance and striding toward centerfield is going to work for them and they will pull plenty of balls. I have seen highlights of several of Parks home runs and if those are any indicators he doesn't need to fear any parks dimensions. Are there any stats about how far he hits his home runs on average? If so, how does it compare to Thames?

Average starting pitching, slightly above average position players and a good measure of luck. Are you talking about the World Series Champion Royals? Kind of by definition average at every position will get you to 81-81. Having slightly above anything added to that will get you more wins and contention for playoffs. There are no great teams out there. It takes varying degrees of good luck for any team to win it all.

I love articles that say stop comparing two players that then goes on to compare the two players with the objective to elicit comments comparing the two players. I'm not going to say hypocritical but rather ironic and not a little bit funny. It would be more honest if someone just posted a headline saying "Don't compare Park to Nishioka" or "Stop comparing Mauer to Oliva" or "Don't compare Escobar to Punto", then write nothing in the content about the two and did not allow comments to be made. I don't like to be told what to do so I will proceed to discuss the two. First of all I never had a problem with signing Nishioka and I am guessing most of you did not either at the time. Japan was riding a wave of respect based on good performance in world championships and guys like Ichiro having success here. Nishioka led his league in hitting. That was a good thing. The criticism I had was getting rid of Hardy, therefore relying on Valencia who wildly outperformed his minor league numbers in a SSS in 2010, Casilla who was similarly unproven and a foreign guy with no MLB experience. I am not taking a stance against unproven guys being given spots because they have to get proven somewhere at some time to be considered proven but to have all three infield spots be suspect was just too much. So here is the very reasonable comparison, IMO anyway. I was ok with signing Nishioka since we had middle infielder need and depth but the problem was letting Hardy go. We have depth at spots Park is likely to play so it actually makes a little less sense but I am still ok with the signing. It is the moves made from here that might call this move into question. Anyone saying there is no comparison will likely change their tune if Plouffe is traded and does well at the same time Park is a bust. I hope that doesn't play out like that.

Its not what I dream of for Mauer. I dream of .320/.400/.440 but would put him in the 2 spot (which is where I would have put him his entire career) and love his .380 OBP on an OBP starved team in a heartbeat. Seemed like nearly every homer Sano had was with Mauer on base. Having power in the middle of the order is great but it means a lot less with no one on board. I don't really care where he plays if he gets on base nearly 40% of the time.

I don't want Sano in the outfield but I kind of wanted him to be DH. People see his weight and height stats and think Vargas, Dave Ortiz and Cecil Fielder but look at his picture above. If a guy can be 6'5 and weigh 250 but still look lean and athletic it is this guy. I think he can be an outfielder based on his speed down the line but I want him to mash and he can do that from the DH spot or fill in for Plouffe or Mauer. I am also fine with him at 3rd in case of a Plouffe trade.

Trading for the unknown in Park is really what botches things up. You can't have it both ways with Sano though. You either say he is an asset defensively because of his athleticism or you say he is best suited for stationary 1st base. I was impressed with how fast he got down the line and can imagine that what made him a short stop in the first place can translate into him being a fair outfielder but I don't really want him there unless he can be much better than Arcia. Hicks, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler should be our mid and long range guys. I loved having outfield defense and do not want to go backwards now when there is a chance to have it become elite. I am reasonably sure the pitching staff would back me up on that assessment. If you are saying Sano is a stationary defender then really his value isn't increased greatly by being out there on defense. In that case just make him a DH until Mauer is done (no, I don't think he is already done). That is what makes the Park signing more baffling.

Wasn't it known that he was going to take a year off which makes that list a bit misleading? If Green was hired last that meant he was passed up by 11 organizations before that so it only takes one to change everything.. Gardy was 2nd in the MOY voting 5 times and MOY once. Not coincidentally it coincides with when the Twins won pennants. I don't think the game has passed him by. Royals didn't win the WS with perfect lineups or defensive shifts or advanced metrics. Or did they? I really didn't research it. I often defended Gardy because he was not the reason they won when they won and he was not the reason they lost when they lost. I would still defend him but no I wouldn't hire him. I just don't like him that much.

Next year. Is that too obvious. In 1989 next year meant last place in 1990 but in 1990 next year meant a WS championship in 1991. What I can't stand is having a bad team and bad prospects (2011). Decent team with good young prospects is drama I enjoy seeing. I am looking forward to next year. And the year after that. I think our all star closer getting hurt and or tanking might have cost us a playoff spot. I don't think Suzuki had as much impact.

. He and Suzuki could be a decent – if unexciting – combo for 2016. I think we would all accept that. AJ is actually still a good hitter and would be playing most of the time in a platoon. Much like Hunter was a defensive and offensive upgrade over Willingham, imo the object is to upgrade which will make us better next year. AJ hits right handed pitching very well. This would be an upgrade. I am just fine with trading prospects. I would have been fine with trading Sano the prospect for Posey type prospect. Probably tough to do though given the general lack of good catchers.

I would be quite happy with a rotation of #2 guys and very satisfied with a rotation of #2 and #3 guys whatever that means. I look at Hughes, Santana, Gibson, and Duffey (I really don't know Berrios) and even Milone and don't worry about what # they are. As long as I have a reasonable expectation that they can throw a shutout or one run game at any given time I am less worried about whether they are considered an ace. Anyone is tradable.

I have been a proponent of Hicks/Arcia platoon for quite some time. Arcia's defensive liabilities and Hicks diminished playing time because of the majority of right handed pitchers abated somewhat by replacing Arcia with Hicks in late innings when appropriate. I would be ok with Hicks/Kepler as well. If anyone protests on the basis of it blocking everyday potential of any of those I say so what? These guys are being paid a ton of money and the Twins should do what is best for the Twins. I would be just fine with a platoon for the next several years. Despite his struggles Hicks maintains a .808 OPS against lefties. Of course a big if is Arcia (who I picked to click this year) can regain his form against righties. I would be just fine with a platoon OPS of .8075.

I agree. It is a little damning with faint praise. This wasn't a good year for Mauer in any respect except for how he did with RISP. It just wasn't. On the other hand, while Mauer did not do a great job getting on base he was still 35 points above the team average and it was still better than the other guys. To sum up on a team that starves for OBP you should probably think twice about dumping a guy that has led the team in that department for pretty much his entire career. Compare it to a scramble golf team that has three good guys tee to green that can't putt to save their lives and one guy that isn't that great a player but is a decent putter. The team needs that guy putting. Even if he isn't an elite putter that is the area of greatest need that he is best able to fill. If this were the 2010 team the current Mauer should be PH or batting at the bottom of the order. Currently he is best suited on this team to bat 2nd. Hopefully he can get it together to be that guy that is best suited to bat 2nd on almost any team in history.

Preaching to the choir here. It is not about velocity but about stuff of which velocity is just a subset. Its not that the Twins of the past pitched to contact. Its that they did it so poorly. Blackburn and DeVries and many more all threw harder than Milone but a staff full of Milone would likely have decreased the ERA of those teams by about a run a game. Not all 88-92 mph guys are created equal and should not be considered as such. As far as playoff velocity goes, in the Giants WS years they were no better than middle of the pack in fastball velocity but also threw fastballs less often than anyone. Milone would not be my first choice for a playoff pitcher but his playoff ERA is 1.5. Ok, small sample size but playoffs are small samples. Also his ERA against KC is 3.3, St. Louis 1.29 and against Texas 2.7. Make the playoffs and I am happy to take my chances with anyone on the mound.

"I usually feel like I'm the only one defending him, and the decision to sign him." Here's the fun part. Not only did all those that you are defending him against demand that he be signed at the time, they also are the ones that clamored for the Twins at various times to sign at least 4 of the guys that are ranked ahead of Mauer on the worst contracts list.

In theory sure but historically spring training is for training rather than competition and for good reason. Rarely is that time frame predictive of regular season results. I would point out a couple really bad ST by Morneau followed by monster years or Hicks great ST followed by regular season struggles but there are literally hundreds if not thousands of such examples. Spots should be based on prior year. Mauer does not have the strongest case but as pointed out above he was 2nd on the team in OBP and Kepler and Vargas just do not have enough experience to pass him by.

You shouldn't ever have to defend the decision to sign him. If it were possible to view the archived trib pages at the time you would see that there was NO ONE against the decision to sign him at the time regardless of how many say they were against it now. I was most lukewarm on the idea and warned people he would not be an MVP every year but I was fine with the signing because he was a really good player and I don't care how much he makes. I just said they should write off much of his contract for public relations rather than player salaries. Because so few of his homers that year cleared the fence by more than a few feet I didn't expect big power numbers but loved his OBP. I still defend him though it has been harder the last couple years. I still think he can make a come back and aside from a half season by Sano Mauer again led the team in OBP which he has done every single year but one when he got on base .402 to Thome's .412. I never thought he was a #3 batter but definitely like the Twins better with him in the lineup. On a team that was starved for OBP to the tune of 28th in the majors it is not a bad thing to have a guy that gets on .035 more than the team average. Just put him at the 2 spot and hope he gets better the farther he gets from the concussion.

No doubt very true. Koufax prime example and also guys like Gibson and Blackburn appeared to be more effective when not given too lengthy a rest which resulted in higher velocity but less break. Prime example of a Twin losing velocity though is Hughes. Hard to make an argument that his loss of velocity was by design or that he has gotten more movement by throwing slower.. In fact, I imagine there might be some pitches that can break better with higher velocity or greater arm strength anyway such as sliders and cutters. Hughes appeared to be getting by at the end by being more of a pitcher in changing speeds and mixing things up. Best result IMO is for him to get the velocity back but still incorporate what he has learned this season.

"Last year, Clay's fastball was continually 92-95 mph when he first joined the Twins. They jokingly said that's the Twin's for you. I asked them what they meant and they said happens a lot with Twins pitchers." Did they have any theories on that? I defend pitchers like Duffey that have stuff and command even though they don't have big velocity but I would rather they have stuff, command and velocity. I do not believe the Twins teach them to throw slower.

I am ok with guys that can often pitch like aces. Gibson in his career has not been a 6 inning 3 run kind of quality start guy. His quality starts are near the league norm but in very few of those has he given up as many as 3 runs and most are just 0 or 1 runs. This year he did a little better job of staying with it when he wasn't on. HIs game where he gave up 4 in the first and still completed the game was an example of him battling a little better this year. His slump WAS due to command. You could watch just the pitches without knowing the outcome and see the difference. The guy that has the best chance of being an ace in the whole organization is still May who has the best stuff and has had better command as time goes. Santana, Gibson, May and Duffey should be locks (I know they won't be but they should be) for the rotation next year with Milone, Hughes and Berrios in that order competing for the last spot..

I have nothing against power. Sano does appear to be a pure power hitter and probably elite and I don't want to change that. I liken it to my golf game. When grooved I swing effortlessly and hit the drive 250 yards and consistently. Often I find myself swinging much harder for less and less consistency. I may hit the occasional 270 by swinging really hard but the trade off is no where near worth it. In golf at least when I do hit 270 there is a benefit. When Arcia hits it 100 feet beyond the fence there is no additional benefit compared to hitting it 1 foot over. I am not criticizing Sano's season here. I loved it. I want him to fall in love with the quantity of home runs not the distance. The distance will be there anyway from swinging well.