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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. I spent 10 seconds thinking about it and came up with Randy Johnson, Sandy Kooufax, Phil Hughes and Trevor May so I am guessing there are a lot more. I am not predicting anything for Meyer but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that command can be gained. May and Hughes went from very poor command to fantastic command. Meyer was on the cusp and then took a couple steps backward but I would not be surprised if he figured it out. Its part mechanical and part mental and can go the other way also. Guys that could throw it where they wanted and then can't. Wimmer and Knoblach come to mind.
  2. A little misleading between the headline and article. I have never had any problem connecting decrease in production and lingering concussion symptoms. It was much the same with Morneau. The farther you get from it the better off you will be. Not to say there is a time table or exact science to it. Maybe he will never get back to where he was but the headline says it is lingering and the article says he has been symptom free for 3 months. Which is it? Would not shock me if he never regains his form but it would not shock me for him to hit .320 again either and if any team could use a guy at the front of the order getting on base .400 of the time it is this one.
  3. I think May is in the bullpen and if they give weight to both career and last season and less to salary Milone should be ahead of Hughes and if you value ERA at all Milone in his career and last year was probably closer to a #3 than a #5 given that the average starter ERA was over 4.10 and Milone has been below 4.00. I would be fine with a Santana, :Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Hughes rotation. Ideally it would be May instead of Hughes and maybe Hughes could be useful out of the pen but I doubt it goes that way.
  4. Uh...no. This article was 100% about defense. Its purpose was not to consider offense at all. If he was the triple crown winner the last 10 years and was expected to win it for the next 10 this article still wouldn't be saying anything about his offense. I don't see how you can read anything about how a player is considered offensively from this article much less say anything is official about it.
  5. Not really arguing but kind of making my point. Perkins ineffectiveness had ripple effects. He was either hurt or bad. Instead of giving us 35 innings of quality relief in situations described he gave us 28 innings of bad pitching. That lost games as well as thinned the pen. We couldn't play match ups because Perkins was hurt or bad. May had to pitch the day before because Perkins was hurt or bad. We had no options we could trust with May or Jepsen out because Perkins was hurt or bad. Again, 3 good guys and a couple average guys ie, Tonkin, Fien can do be all right but if you turn one of those good guys into a very bad guy and you have problems. Like I said, I am not against getting a quality guy but we really need the guys we expect to be quality to live up to it. After the break, Perkins definitely did not.
  6. I can be more specific here. As insane as Perkins was in the first half he was that bad in the 2nd half. His ERA the first half was 1.21 in 38 games and had 28 saves. In the 2nd half he had a 7.32 ERA (doesn't even contemplate inherited runners scored) in 22 appearances and just 4 saves. Since we added May and Jepsen to the pen after the break I am guessing that if Perkins was available more and pitched even to career average we wouldn't be remembering the 2015 bullpen as being suspect int the 2nd half. Therefore a lot of this simply boils down to how you view Perkins. If he is good then the pen should be decent. If he is not then depth is way more of a concern.
  7. See my 6:01 post. I have no problem saying Milone was a better pitcher than Berrios last season or saying he is probably better right now and I have no problem with Milone starting out the season in the rotation. The season is 162 games long so saying Milone is the better guy out of Spring Training is not the same as saying Milone will be the better guy July-Sept. For me, Hughes is the guy that Berrios should be beating out for a rotation spot.
  8. Don't get me wrong. I am stoked about Berrios but I believe at the time of the promotion Duffey was about half a run better than Berrios. I was fine with the promotion just like I was fine when Pinto was promoted a couple years back. Simply put they earned it. Not too concerned about the reasons for the promotion or where Duffey might be if it hadn't happened much like i don't think anyone is too concerned about what might have happened with Gehrig if Wally Pipp had gone 4-4 instead of sitting out a game
  9. I actually like ERA and in two of those seasons and most notably the most recent Duffey had the better ERA. I get the age point but this is not about potential. It is about who is best now. Duffey had the better ERA last season at the time of promotion and excelled at the major league level. I don't care if he is 16 or 30 for these purposes. I would not dream of trading Berrios to get Milone but hard to say Milone wasn't a better pitcher than Berrios in 2015. Below 4 ERA in the majors and 4-0 with a .70 ERA and a 15.67 SO/W ratio in AAA. Berrios is all about potential. If I needed to win a game right now there are other guys ahead of him and Duffey is one of them.
  10. "Though he may be the Twins best pitcher, JO Berrios is likely to begin the season in Rochester while the other four rotation spots work themselves out" I see this a lot but don't really buy into it. I am guessing May is the Twins best pitcher but what evidence is there that Berrios is better than Duffey. Duffey was promoted because he was doing as well or better at the time and he has certainly proved it thus far in the majors. If you are looking at WHIP or strikeout rates in the minors then of course Tommy Milone owns the title. I am excited about seeing Berrios and hope he is as good as the hype but am more excited about Duffey. He has the best curve ball since Blyleven and that might be a compliment to Bert.
  11. This is a good point if trying to perfect 3rd and 4th pitches have stopped him from perfecting any. I am not sure this is the case but am not sure it is not the case. In his 2015 season he would dominate for several starts in a row and then have a stinker or two. I can live with that. To me wildness and inconsistency plays worse out of the bullpen. If you sparkle in the rotation 6 out of 10 starts you will be worthwhile because the average starter has a 50% quality start rate and if you stink you get a quick hook. . If you are a one inning guy and you stink out of the pen 4 out of 10 outings you will not be worthwhile. 2014 makes me think he should be a starter but I don't know what to make of 2015. I suspect that if he can command his fastball he can do anything he wants but if trying to perfect 4 pitches is messing with his head then he needs to simplify. I would give him another shot in AAA as a starter.
  12. I look at Perkins, May, Jepsen and :Fien and am pretty happy with the top 4 in the pen. Stands to reason that the next 4 will not be quite as good but that doesn't mean putting in any of Meyer, Nolasco, Acter, Tomkin, Berrios, etc. is like putting it on a tee. They, along with the starters, just need to get it to the 7th inning with a chance to win. With the addition of May and Jepsen this will probably be the best bullpen the Twins have had since 2010. Not saying it wouldn't be nice to have another shut down guy but the bottom spots filled by Nolasco and apprentices is not soo out of the ordinary. No player becomes a proven player without first being an unproven rookie.
  13. If Plouffe is worth 20+M a year, I'm grossly underpaid in my job!. If Plouffe is not worth 20+M a year, I'm grossly underpaid in my job!
  14. Quibbling a bit here but Sano is not guaranteed a spot in the outfield barring a Plouffe trade. He is guaranteed a spot in the outfield if he can show that he can play competently out there. Unlike many others here I see no reason that won't happen. He is athletic, pretty fast and confident in himself. If he does fail out there then you consider trading Plouffe. If we can't get much for Plouffe now it doesn't really matter if we can't get much for him later but I don't see how we have painted ourselves in a corner and will get less if we decide to trade him. I am guessing there are more than two teams for which Plouffe would be an upgrade.
  15. Based on what exactly? Funny seeing that the other clubs in the central have improved to varying degrees once again. According to preseason reports and analysis of many fans here and on the Trib page since 2002, every single team in the division has gotten better every single year except the Twins who have either done nothing or gotten worse every single year. 6 division titles, 4 lousy seasons and now a 2nd place finish. Probably one of the biggest mysteries in sports history.
  16. I think the consensus is that we haven't been offered much for Plouffe. I am guessing they can get the "not much in a trade" any time they want to. I don't see how they are painted in a corner by keeping him. If he is rated an average third baseman and I am guessing there are several teams with below average third basemen that would rather have him so any negotiating power is among the teams that want him rather than lost negotiating power because the Twins might not have a spot for him. Therefore, the first question is can Sano play the outfield? I think he is actually quite fast so I think he will but if he cannot then the question is can Park hit? I have no idea but if he can then we think about trading Plouffe. Honestly, if Arcia is working that hard and it can come together I would rather have him batting than Plouffe. I think the idea that Sano willl struggle at the plate because he has to go to the outfield is not giving him much credit. He knows he will be in the lineup and he knows it will be because of his ability to hit. The only logjam is if Sano cannot play the outfield and he, Arcia, Park, Plouffe, and Mauer are all hitting really well. What a disaster that would be.
  17. I don't recall being all that excited about Nolasco when they signed him but no reason to write him off. There was a reason he was signed and he has had injuries so I see no reason he can't be decent out of the pen. I would hate for him to get a rotation spot over any of the guys named above. All of those guys have earned their spot through performance for the Twins.
  18. Of course regression or failure is always a possibility but I never minded that he was promoted before Berrios much like I didn't mind that May was promoted after Pinto last year. Both guys earned the promotion at least in terms of ERA over other guys. I have no problem with promotions based on performance rather than potential. In Duffey's case he has 265 innings in the high minors of being very good. The SSS in the Bigs is just a punctuation mark. No guarantee but a very good sign. His minor league numbers say he was actually kind of wild in the majors. His fastball looked average or better and his curveball was very Blylleven like. He should be penciled in to the rotation with moist lead. The kind that is hard to erase.
  19. Kind of interesting. Everyone is excited about Berrios and I am as well but what about Duffey? He actually had a better AAA season than Berrios at least in terms of ERA and has better numbers overall at AAA. Plus, after a lousy start was fantastic in the late season pennant race. Santana was quite good after a slow start also. Why isn't there more excitement about Duffey? He has the stuff and a better physical build than Berrios but still seems like an afterthought. I am very excited at the prospect of him for a whole year. In fact, he is the main reason I am not more bummed that May probably won't get a chance in the rotation.
  20. I thought of Thorpe right away also but kind of thought he already had a breakout year. Since he had the surgery at the beginning of last year I am hoping to see results a bit earlier.
  21. Its a few years away from happening so not worried about it. I really didn't like the way Dozier looked the second half last year so maybe Polanco will be the guy the others have to beat out. BTW, I assume Gordon is slated as the leadoff hitter of the future so I don't care if he adds power or not. He needs to get on base.
  22. I am a little middle of the road on this. Santana regressing was easy to figure much like Valencia was back in the day (so far beyond their minor league numbers) but I don't just assume guys that have success will be unable to maintain it much like I don't assume that Mauer will continue to struggle or that Dozier won't be able to adjust and get on base more. I am an optimist. Buxton may very well continue to struggle but I can also certainly imagine him putting in a lot of work in the off season and maybe getting off to a fast start will get him some confidence and get him to sustainable success quicker than people think. I have seen slow starts from him at each level and quick learning. Who knows? I just want him to get off to a quick start so he can perform without the stress that a slow starts produces. Natural vs pressing. As far as the rest of the team goes I am always optimistic guys can have good years but if everyone produces like above and given the unearned runs and bench production of last year I figure they would finish at 765 runs which would have put them in 2nd place of all baseball last year. That just seems a little too optimistic even for me. One thing people also have to remember is that acceptable stats nowadays are not the same as they were 10 years ago. AVERAGE runs per major league team is down about 100 runs from a decade ago. Subtract 6 RBI per player and the peripheral stats that go with it from the above estimates and the Twins will still score more than average and likely in the top 10. I would be very happy with top 10.
  23. Incredibly optimistic on the OBP for most guys. Sano and Mauer were the only guys to beat .309 last year. Now you think everyone but Rosario beats it. Funny that I think Rosario might be one of the guys that does beat it. As Jimmer stated above, if Mauer comes anywhere close to old form (and probably even if he doesn't) you want him batting 2nd ahead of Sano. Last season Mauer counted for twice as many of Sano RBI as any other guy.
  24. Hard to tell for me but I think 11 of Sano's first 13 homers were with guys on base. He drove in Mauer 12 times and I think most of them were on home runs. Underscores the need to have guys on base in front of him. Looking at the OBP stats for 2015 is kind of depressing. Mauer was way down at .338 but still led everyone but Sano. Mauer and Dozier need to get on base more. Simple as that. Or Buxton needs to become the leadoff hitter we think he can be and Dozier moves down the lineup.
  25. I have always liked Dozier but in the minors he hit .298 with a .370 OBP. His last year in high minors he hit .320 with a .399 OBP. I don't doubt that he can still pull some home runs on the outer half but I don't want that to be his goal. It seemed the vast majority of his home runs were up and middle in. I just think he can be a more complete and valuable lead off hitter if he uses all fields. I would gladly sacrifice a little power for a rise in OBP. From Morneau to Cuddyer to Valencia, to Young to Kubel to Mauer to Willingham I have never liked when it appears they have tried to pull the ball. They have all been most effective when stepping toward the pitcher and letting the natural pull work for them. Dozier is talented enough to turn on inside pitches while still taking what the pitchers give him on the outside, imo. Same goes for Sano. Pull middle in and either go the other way or up the middle with outer half or let it go.
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