Dantes929

I am not against power by any means. In fact, I love when our team hits 3 run homers. Problem with hitting 3 run homers is that you need 2 guys on base for it to happen. For all Mauer's detractors, much of which is justified based on his performance it seemed like many of Sano's homers had Mauer on base in front of him. As alluded to above it would be nice if Dozier were on base as well. (or Buxton, or Mauer more often)

its also worth noting that the Twins were 11th in scoring in 2015 while ranking 16th in homers. They were 7th in scoring in 2014 while ranking 19th in homers. Twins once outscored Toronto despite hitting 100 fewer home runs. More home runs don't equate to more runs. Its interesting to me that there has been a big deal made about KC and their pitching and how everyone thinks that is the new model that teams should strive for but no mention is made (I also believe their great defense is overlooked but that is a different conversation) about their formula for offense.. Everyone talks about the necessity for having strikeout pitchers while ignoring the fact that KC also won the WS by being the toughest team to strikeout. To sum up everyone wants strike out pitchers and power offenses saying that it the necessary combination to win in the playoffs while KC won it all by refusing to strikeout against strikeout pitchers and scoring without hitting a lot of homers. They have been the hardest to strike out two years in row and been 24th and 30th in home run and have gotten to the WS twice and yet no one is modeling their offense after KC.

I buy into all of it except for Dozier. I really think it wasn't just him tiring out but also him trying to pull the ball at all costs and the pitchers trying to prevent him from pulling the ball at all costs. He has power but I do not think he will hit for those totals again and should not be trying to. He needs to hit the other way and get on base way more often. If he does that they will shift him differently and pitch him differently.

If we trot out the right guys I am fine with the talent though would not go so far as to say very good. I think the disconnect is what people consider to be the 5th starter. As pointed out earlier there are a lot of teams where Milone's performance would have been closer to a 3 including a few playoff teams. If the previous poster was correct in saying the AVERAGE ERA for a starter was 4.11/ That means there are A LOT of guys that are on the wrong side of 4.11 and by a fair amount. Milone settles in quite nicely as a league average #3 guy. Duffey and Gibson did better than him and we consider Santana and May and maybe Hughes to be better and of course Nolasco wasn't signed because he was thought of as a #5 talent. If Milone ends up being the #5 guy it means we have a very good #5 guy. If we have 5 #3 guys then that will be average. If we have 2 #2 guys along with 3 #3 guys then we will have a much better than average staff. I can imagine that with this group of guys and yes I can imagine it better with May in the rotation. I like your take on slotting but our weakness was in the #1 and #2 spots. Our strength should be in our #3-5 spots.

The reason it works is what is lost in all of these conversations. Milone knows how to pitch. He does it with good control but also good stuff even though it doesn't involve high velocity. The problem here is that people think all 89mph pitchers are the same. They are most definitely not. Here is my hierarchy. 1. Guys with great stuff including velocity that know how to pitch. 2. Guys with great stuff without velocity that know how to pitch. 3. Guys with great stuff including veloicty. 4. Guys with stuff without velocity. 5. Guys with just great velocity. Huge qualifier is what I said before. No pitchers are alike which means that there are lots of variations within these categories.

Of course if Milone loses MPH or feel for a pitch things can go bad but that is not unique. As of last year Hughes had lost MPH and who knows if it will come back. One thing I noticed about Milone and I think the pitch tracking would back me up is that he got pinched by the umps more than any other pitcher on the staff. It was to his credit that he still put up the numbers he did but if he got a little respect on the corners he could be even better.

This has devolved into a Milone vs May discussion and imo it shouldn't be. If anything it should be about Milone vs Nolasco and Hughes and I think Milone has shown over his career and last season that it should be him over the other two. Then the discussion should be about Nolasco vs Hughes vs May. I don't know why Nolasco or Hughes should be ineffective as relievers. .

IF we can turn Milone for an above average reliever and put May in the rotation I am all for it. No where have I seen that Milone is a lock for the rotation and that is kind of the point of the blog in the first place. Also, if I had my druthers Milone would be a starter but with Hughes and Nolasco as the odd men out rather than May.. Lastly, I see the appeal of lights out relief staff and if you can get them fine but for the most point I don't demand strikeouts from relief pitchers. There are occasions where a strikeout is really nice but I like double plays also and if a guy can give up 2.5 runs/9 with a 5 SO/9 I prefer that over a guy with a 3 ERA that strikes out 10/9. Ground outs and fly outs and holding guys on are important also. I am not suggesting that Milone is an ideal bullpen guy but think Craig Breslow who had some real value.

First of all, the math. If you have 5 pitchers in the rotation the average is likely the #3. If the league average starter has 4.11 ERA doesn't that make MIlone with his 3.92 ERA better than average and thus slightly better than a #3? Ok, you say that might be true but he wouldn't start on a playoff team. A quick check of WS champion KC ERA's puts Milone at #3 on their staff even without the benefit of the great KC defense. #4 with the Mets, #5 with the Cubs, #5 with the Pirates. #5 with the Dodgers. #3 with the Rangers, #5 with the Astros #5 with the Blue Jays and #3 with the Yankees. But no one wants him in the Twins rotation? He would not be the ideal starter in a playoff game but if you told me the Twins will make the playoffs and Milone will start one game every series I would be just fine with that. I enjoy watching Milone because he pitches rather than just throws. In fact I never particularly liked watching Hughes pitch because it was monotonous. Once his velocity dipped and he couldn't get by with throwing his cutter most of the time I enjoyed watching him more because he seemed to become a pitcher rather than a thrower. He did much better once he changed speeds, pitches and locations. My ideal rotation would be Santana, May, Gibson, Duffey and Milone. If May is in the bullpen that makes me want Milone in there even more. If Milone has a sub 4.00 ERA and Berrios forces him out then that means we have a really good staff. Hughes and Nolasco in the pen and providing rotation depth. If you have an entire team of players that slightly outperform the average at their position as Milone has done then you probably have a playoff team.

I have no problem going in with a rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Hughes and Milone. Honestly, if I had my druthers it would probably be May for Hughes rather than May for Milone because Hughes would probably be all right out of the pen. The rotation has been bad but for every year of his career Milone would have been the #2 pitcher on our staff with his ERA except for 2012 when he would be #3. You can call him a back of the rotation pitcher if you want to but he hasn't been the back of our rotation starter. I will be thrilled if he pitches the whole season with his career ERA of 3.97 and shows up on baseball reference as our 5th best pitcher. That means we will have had 4 better ERA's. I don't think I have ever discounted him. He can beat anyone because he has stuff and command. I hate when fans heap all softer throwers together. The guy has proven he can pitch sub 4 ERA over 106 starts That is not such a small sample size. 87 Twins would have been thrilled to have him.

Its a higher bar than you might imagine. Very few people agree with me. But no, its not the only requirement. I'm not that superficial. Looks and wealth factor in as well.

He agrees with me. Of course I respect him.

That cat has already been skinned and is irrelevant. Would he have a spot on 2016 Royals postseason rotation? Very likely. Would he have a spot on the 2016 Mets postseason rotation? That is what we are talking about. If you think his ceiling is that or not. I think it is.

Not all pitchers are created equal. Some have an arsenal that plays really well for an inning or two but would not hold up through 6 or 7. 200 quality innings means less wear and tear on the pen. Quality starts means more high leverage situations that would not exist given a poor start which is a good thing. Quality starts also means fewer high leverage situations because of a lead that would not exist with poor starts. Also a good thing. I don't know who John Stickels is but he predicts all star performance for May in the rotation. If he didn't have this kind of perceived upside no one would be making the case for taking May out of the pen. The Mets got to the WS by having a great rotation. The Royals got there with a great relief staff. Lets not get too carried away with the result of a 7 game series. There is more than one way to skin a cat (not sure what those ways are or why you want to skin a cat but trust me its a saying). There aren't many Wade Davis's around and I don't know that May has that kind of potential as a reliever. Likewise I am not sure Davis could do what I think May can do as a starter.

SSS on May. I would look to his minor league stats in his last year to get a better idea of QS. I also look a little deeper at his major league career because it was pretty obvious he was either too nervous or too pumped to start his career. Broken down his QSs numbers were 3 for his first 16 games and 6 for his last 9. :Swarzak was ok but he wasn't going to continue at 73% whereas I do believe if given a full season May can do much better than league and team average.

What made Santana such a regression candidate was that his 2014 major league season so far outperformed his minor league history. I agree that Duffey is a regression candidate but he would basically be replacing Pelfrey who might have been a regression candidate himself. Santana for a full year and Duffey replacing Pelfrey is a good bet for improvement, IMO.

Darnell would probably be just as good as Rogers and I am not a big we need a lefty just to get one out every other game either and Berrios probably won't start the year in the rotation and as was pointed out by dman Hughes and Nolasco in the pen isn't a very good bet either. This isn't my prediction of what the Twins would do but just pointing out that the cupboard isn't bare. It is pretty close to what I would have penciled in even though I don't like May out of the rotation. I have no problem with rookies taking some spots. They have to start somewhere and I just want the talent to start falling into place. IMO May, Duffey, Gibson, Santana and probably Milone have earned a spot in the rotation and Berrios has earned a shot to pitch with the Twins. I am not down on Hughes or Nolasco but don't want them given the spot based on pre 2015 years or on how much they are paid. They can be assets in the pen.

I am hoping May starts but if he doesn't then we are talking Jepsen, May and Perkins. IMO a lot depends on Perkins but if he is good that makes a pretty good three inning group. Maybe not Wade Davis good but good nonetheless. Rotation of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and MIlone with a pen of Jepsen, May, Perkins, Hughes, Nolasco, Rogers and Burdi. Looks to me like an improvement in the rotation and the pen over last year. Adding Park, Buxton, Sano and Murphy looks like a likely improvement to the offense and slight improvement to the defense. Now I don't like that we have 8 likely candidates for the rotation and that my favorite (May) is probably going to be an odd man out but I don;t think it is unreasonable that the three that don't make the cut will make serviceable depth for the pen. I think this is reasonable. I am an optimist. Some one can poke holes in this analysis and be reasonable also. :That's baseball.

I think Hicks has more upside than Murphy but Hicks is not better than :Rosario and does not have the upside of Buxton, Kepler, Park or Sano. Hicks has done very little at the minor or major league level that says he can hit left handed which makes him a platoon player. IMO a very good platoon player that could have paired with Arcia with excellent results but that probably wasn't going to happen so I am not going to cry over it.

Except he has only played 15 games, missed 10 games while attending a trade show in Chicago and apparently took advantage of the opportunity to eat some pizza there. Does that look like a guy working on his game or a guy on vacation playing in a beer league a couple times a week? Roster management will probably work just fine if Sano comes in at around 250 lbs. Not so well if he comes in at 300 and then you will be criticizing the Twins for not keeping tabs on one of their best players or insisting that he get in shape. 300 pounds really doesn't play that well at 3rd base or at the plate either.

Yeah, I knew I wouldn't get away with throwing out his clunker though I think it reasonable in this instance to remark on his last 9 starts vs his first 6. If he was in his third or 4th season I wouldn't think it reasonable either. I just don't think the 4.37 ERA reflected who he was as a starter. I felt very good about our chances when he started. At the time I thought he was one of the best and I just didn't want to see him yanked out of the rotation. I think I have made it clear that I am with spycake in that I don't think he is a meh starter so its more the premise that we disagree on than the conclusion.

I think comparing May's relief numbers against numbers as a starter is a little misleading. His first six starts he had 1 quality start and an ERA of 5.4. Over his next 9 starts he got his ERA down to 4.37 (despite a one out 5 earned runs disaster against the Brewers) and 6 of those starts were QS which is very good. Throw away that clunker and his ERA in his last 8 starts was 2.88. We know his nerves got the better of him in the majors in 2014 so it is not unreasonable he was still getting his feet wet to start 2015. He has the tools and the pitches to be a very good if not great starter and I for one thought he should have been the LAST guy to go to the pen when Santana came back. So what if he was also the guy best suited for relief. I want this guy throwing 200 innings at 3.2 ERA rather than 60 innings of 2.8 ERA. I think 2015 gave him the comfort and confidence to be the Twins top starter in 2016. I've been wrong before but the biggest slam on him was his command and that has become his greatest strength to go along with some pretty good strengths in quality of several different pitches.

I agree with this completely. I imagine the prior decade is viewed as a time of complete stability and predictability. Kind of ties in with the expectations poll on the other thread. While the Twins were winning 6 division titles the predictions ran from 95 losses to 95 wins and you could always point to things do defend it depending on if you were optimistic or pessimistic. There was also the constant angst of is Ford or Tyner good enough to play full time, should Harris or Punto or Valencia start at third base, can we give Casilla 2nd base full time or should he be shortstop or a utility player and if so who should get those spots full time, can Slowey and Blackburn get by, can Baker stay healthy, is Pavano too old, can Liriano get back to 2006 form, can Span hold down center field since he is unproven, can Span have a good sophomore year or was last year just a flash in the pan, can Mauer handle the wear and tear of catching and how can we possibly have Butera as backup, is Thome washed up, can we depend on Kubel knee holding up? I ran that all as one run on sentence for a reason and it could have filled a whole page. This season has nothing like the question marks after 2011 season for starters and I don't think this season has to even be particularly jumbled. I am guessing somewhere there is a chalkboard (maybe not literally) where the Twins have the lineup, the rotation and the relief staff penciled in to start the season and everything springs off of that. For example, it will read the starters of Plouffe, Escobar, Dozier, Mauer, Suzuki, Park, Rosario, Buxton and Sano. Nothing too complicated about that. Remember it is in pencil (or rather metaphoric chalk) and will be adjusted as guys underperform and other guys over achieve. Santana, Nunez, Vargas, Arcia and Kepler are all good guys to have as depth. They have a similar chart for who is in the rotation and relief staff but just aren't sharing it. I hope the rotation is May, Gibson, Santana, Duffey and Berrios but just because the Twins have Huges and Nolasco instead doesn't mean its jumbled. We just don't know what it is. 30 seconds of searching results in an article saying the Royals are in flux because of Rios and Gordon becoming free agents, closer non tendered, need for relief depth and for a couple more starters in the rotation.

If we don't get that much and it doesn't change moving forward what difference does it make if we move him now or later? If we don't get that much for him now then I am just fine with keeping him. Too early for this? 1. Buxton 2. Mauer 3. Sano 4. Park 5. Plouffe 6. Escobar 7. Dozier 8. Rosario 9. Susuki/Murphy Right now this is better than anything we put out there if Sano does not play outfield, at least until Kepler is up.

I never criticized the Nishioka signing and won't criticize this one At least we didn't let go of Hardy because of this signing. :We have some depth in case it doesn't work out. I do hope Sano in the outfield is temporary because I am hoping to see an outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler