Brandon

Marcum = Cole Devries with more experience and a little better secondary pitches. I have the Twins getting Ervin Santana or Edwin Jackson, Baker and a SP from the Braves for Span. Thats 1 pitcher in the 9-12 million range, 1 in the 3-5 million range, and one salary swap for another if its Tommy Hanson. I got that from the Offseason handbook and thats the most even trade proposal I have ever seen that helps both teams. Its a crime if it doesn't get done. Diamond and Gibson are cheap and Devires and Dedunno and Hendricks are right there waiting Rochester could have a pretty good staff next year.

Twins Offseason: After reading 4 different offseason scenarios in the Twins offseason handbook I decided to throw out my offseason thoughts and see what you all think and start a thread where everyone can post their thoughts and offseason plans and come up with a Twinsdaily.com reader consensus. In the Book they used 90 million to budget the team I am going with 90-95 million as I think the Twins will allow a little breathing room in the budget to go up a little. The number 1 fix for the team is the rotation. How do we go about fixing it? The Twins have mentioned targeting 3 starting pitchers this offseason. Everyone seems to be in agreement that we all want Scott Baker back at a reduced rate. I read 1 year 3 million with an option. I am going to go with 1 year 4 million base,and a 200k incentive for every 10 innings over 100 innings pitched. That should give him an opportunity to make 5 million next year and the option for 8 to 12 million is fine by me. It appears that the 2 best matchups for a Span trade include Atlanta with all that SP and Cincinnati who is looking for a lead off hitting OF. I am going to go with a Span for Hanson trade straight up. I don’t know what to expect his salary to be next year. I am going to guess between 3.5 million and 5 million. The third starting pitcher can come from FA. TheTwins need to sign a good free agent starter for several reasons. One is because we really need SP and the other is the fans have been asking for years for management to make a big splash in FA. I think Twins fans want a major FA signing so much that it would have a bigger impact on season ticket holder retention then the all star game (Maybe). This fills that psychological need, rotation hole, and sells season tickets. So the 20-50 million dollar question is which pitcher to sign and for how much. Greinke is one of the few pitchers that I feel comfortable with them giving a 5 year 90 million contract too, but I know that’sjust dreaming big so let’s try either Ervin Santana on a 2 year 17-20 million contract or Edwin Jackson on a 3 year 36-39 million or 4 year 48-50 millionmax. Annibal Sanchez is my third choice of FA pitchers that are possible to sign this offseason. I am going with Jackson, but don’t be surprised to see a Santana in the Twins rotation. Note Santana would keep me from going overbudget by a smidge too. These are also high strikeout and good velocity picks. That fixes the rotation now on to the next priority the bullpen. The Twins are going to want a power arm in the bullpen next year. I am glad Bill Smith isn’t here as I see Arizona has 2 closers next year and we have a Parmelee. Hopefully he doesn’t get traded for Putz and his 1 year 6.5 million contract as a closer next year:banghead:. Here is where the Twins can continue to do what they did last year and go cheap and with quantity and bring in several options to compete for a bullpen spot. I would love to see the Twins bring back Latroy Hawkins as a middle reliever/ set up man on a 1 year 2-3 million contract though. He is the type of arm the Twins would look for to fortify the bullpen there are numerous other options for a “established”reliever too. Question is does TerryRyan want to invest that much money there. That is one spot covered. If Terry Ryan wants more depth I suspect it will come from minor signings and waiver pickups to compete in spring training. The next fix will be the lineup. I do not see the Twins trading Morneau nor do I see him leaving as a free agent after next season either. Parmalee should be kept as 1B insurance and RF starter for next season and let the competition play out as who stays at 1B next offseason. If Parmalee establishes himself next year he would be great trade bait for a SS when the time comes if Morneau gets extended as I believe he will if healthy. Span and Revere are redundant and whichever one Atlanta is willing to trade for a starting pitcher is the one that should be dealt. Span is a great guy and I hate to see him go. Now that I have stated my observations about the offense let’s get moving along. RF is Parmelee’s until Arcia or Hicks can wrangle it away from him. That will also satisfy the teams need for more power in the lineup. Trading Span or Revere will get rid of the lineup 1 of the 4 “Piranha’s” we currently have in the lineup. The next step I would take would solve several problems with 1 swoop. Terry Ryan has gone on record as saying he is concerned about Plouffe’s defense at 3b and Gardenhire likes the idea of a 3rd string C available. Let’s get both and be cheap about it. We could sign Inge to a 1 year 1-2 million deal to back up 3B and 3rd C and I think he can play a little at 2b too if he goes on a streak and no one wins that spot outright. Inge plays good defense and used to be a Catcher. He is not someone to rely on out there but I think he could handle 100 innings or so as the 3rd string guy. Bench bat: If theTwins desire a bench bat for next year then there are a couple out there: Thome might be an option if he waits till late in the offseason and thinks these moves will get us to the post season, Or the player I am going with is Johnny Gomes a RH power hitter that play RF if Parmalee slumps out the gate or Morneau gets hurt. He will be inexpensive 1-2 million and has power which we need. SS. As much as I would like to see this one addressed, I don’t think they will unless they invite one of the remaining options left on the market to come to spring training as competition, or if one is acquired for Span or Revere. Remember if Parmelee succeeds we have him as a trade chip too note it also gives Profar a chance to get established so we can trade for Andrus at the trade deadline....future Parmelee and ??? for future Andrus anyone? How much did these moves cost….. Baker $4 million Hanson basically a wash in salary commitment Jackson $13 million Hawkins $2.5 million Inge $2 million Gomes $1.5 million My math has us in the $94-$96 million ranges with this team. But outside of Middle IF find an area not fully addressed. Lineup: CF Revere 2b Carroll C Mauer LF Willingham 1B Morneau DH Doumit 3B Plouffe RF Parmelee SS Florimon/ Dozier Bench 3B -C-1B-2B Inge OF-1B-DH-PH Gomes OF- Pinch Runner Mastroianni IF Dozier/ Florimon/ Escobar SP Jackson Baker Hanson Diamond Gibson with Hendicks/ DeVries/ and Dedunno ready to go if needed. Bullpen Perkins Burton Hawkins Deunsing Burnett Swarzak Robertson+ competition for last 1 or 2 spots

Twins Offseason: After reading 4 different offseason scenarios in the Twins offseason handbook I decided to throw out my offseason thoughts and see what you all think and start a thread where everyone can post their thoughts and offseason plans and come up with a Twinsdaily.com reader consensus. In the Book they used 90 million to budget the team I am going with 90-95 million as I think the Twins will allow a little breathing room in the budget to go up a little. The number 1 fix for the team is the rotation. How do we go about fixing it? The Twins have mentioned targeting 3 starting pitchers this offseason. Everyone seems to be in agreement that we all want Scott Baker back at a reduced rate. I read 1 year 3 million with an option. I am going to go with 1 year 4 million base,and a 200k incentive for every 10 innings over 100 innings pitched. That should give him an opportunity to make 5 million next year and the option for 8 to 12 million is fine by me. It appears that the 2 best matchups for a Span trade include Atlanta with all that SP and Cincinnati who is looking for a lead off hitting OF. I am going to go with a Span for Hanson trade straight up. I don’t know what to expect his salary to be next year. I am going to guess between 3.5 million and 5 million. The third starting pitcher can come from FA. TheTwins need to sign a good free agent starter for several reasons. One is because we really need SP and the other is the fans have been asking for years for management to make a big splash in FA. I think Twins fans want a major FA signing so much that it would have a bigger impact on season ticket holder retention then the all star game (Maybe). This fills that psychological need, rotation hole, and sells season tickets. So the 20-50 million dollar question is which pitcher to sign and for how much. Greinke is one of the few pitchers that I feel comfortable with them giving a 5 year 90 million contract too, but I know that’sjust dreaming big so let’s try either Ervin Santana on a 2 year 17-20 million contract or Edwin Jackson on a 3 year 36-39 million or 4 year 48-50 millionmax. Annibal Sanchez is my third choice of FA pitchers that are possible to sign this offseason. I am going with Jackson, but don’t be surprised to see a Santana in the Twins rotation. Note Santana would keep me from going overbudget by a smidge too. These are also high strikeout and good velocity picks. That fixes the rotation now on to the next priority the bullpen. The Twins are going to want a power arm in the bullpen next year. I am glad Bill Smith isn’t here as I see Arizona has 2 closers next year and we have a Parmelee. Hopefully he doesn’t get traded for Putz and his 1 year 6.5 million contract as a closer next year:banghead:. Here is where the Twins can continue to do what they did last year and go cheap and with quantity and bring in several options to compete for a bullpen spot. I would love to see the Twins bring back Latroy Hawkins as a middle reliever/ set up man on a 1 year 2-3 million contract though. He is the type of arm the Twins would look for to fortify the bullpen there are numerous other options for a “established”reliever too. Question is does TerryRyan want to invest that much money there. That is one spot covered. If Terry Ryan wants more depth I suspect it will come from minor signings and waiver pickups to compete in spring training. The next fix will be the lineup. I do not see the Twins trading Morneau nor do I see him leaving as a free agent after next season either. Parmalee should be kept as 1B insurance and RF starter for next season and let the competition play out as who stays at 1B next offseason. If Parmalee establishes himself next year he would be great trade bait for a SS when the time comes if Morneau gets extended as I believe he will if healthy. Span and Revere are redundant and whichever one Atlanta is willing to trade for a starting pitcher is the one that should be dealt. Span is a great guy and I hate to see him go. Now that I have stated my observations about the offense let’s get moving along. RF is Parmelee’s until Arcia or Hicks can wrangle it away from him. That will also satisfy the teams need for more power in the lineup. Trading Span or Revere will get rid of the lineup 1 of the 4 “Piranha’s” we currently have in the lineup. The next step I would take would solve several problems with 1 swoop. Terry Ryan has gone on record as saying he is concerned about Plouffe’s defense at 3b and Gardenhire likes the idea of a 3rd string C available. Let’s get both and be cheap about it. We could sign Inge to a 1 year 1-2 million deal to back up 3B and 3rd C and I think he can play a little at 2b too if he goes on a streak and no one wins that spot outright. Inge plays good defense and used to be a Catcher. He is not someone to rely on out there but I think he could handle 100 innings or so as the 3rd string guy. Bench bat: If theTwins desire a bench bat for next year then there are a couple out there: Thome might be an option if he waits till late in the offseason and thinks these moves will get us to the post season, Or the player I am going with is Johnny Gomes a RH power hitter that play RF if Parmalee slumps out the gate or Morneau gets hurt. He will be inexpensive 1-2 million and has power which we need. SS. As much as I would like to see this one addressed, I don’t think they will unless they invite one of the remaining options left on the market to come to spring training as competition, or if one is acquired for Span or Revere. Remember if Parmelee succeeds we have him as a trade chip too note it also gives Profar a chance to get established so we can trade for Andrus at the trade deadline....future Parmelee and ??? for future Andrus anyone? How much did these moves cost….. Baker $4 million Hanson basically a wash in salary commitment Jackson $13 million Hawkins $2.5 million Inge $2 million Gomes $1.5 million My math has us in the $94-$96 million ranges with this team. But outside of Middle IF find an area not fully addressed. Lineup: CF Revere 2b Carroll C Mauer LF Willingham 1B Morneau DH Doumit 3B Plouffe RF Parmelee SS Florimon/ Dozier Bench 3B -C-1B-2B Inge OF-1B-DH-PH Gomes OF- Pinch Runner Mastroianni IF Dozier/ Florimon/ Escobar SP Jackson Baker Hanson Diamond Gibson with Hendicks/ DeVries/ and Dedunno ready to go if needed. Bullpen Perkins Burton Hawkins Deunsing Burnett Swarzak Robertson+ competition for last 1 or 2 spots

If you trade Morneau then Span will definately stay until one of the minor league OF prospects Hicks or Arcia are deemed ready. The OF will be Span, Revere, and Willingham and 1B Parmelee/ Mauer. There is only one prospect that is currently ready to come up right now and the best use of resources IMO is to trade from our surplus Span or Revere. I think you can maximize the return better by trading Span freeing up 4.75 million or so and if you need to wait until nest July for Morneau then so be it. I wonder if they could extend Morneau and restructure his current contract in the process. 3 year 33 million extension at 11 per year?

If Butera is arbitration eligible I doubt he would even be able to reach 700k for next season. He would probably settle for 500-550k just to be able to keep a major league job. If we need a 3rd Catcher on the roster that will be the more efficient route to go while having Herman develop one more season in the minors and he will be less expensive for an additional year too.

Also I would like for TR to give you a sample scouting report that you could post on the website so we can see how evaluating takes place and types of notes are taken and part of the evaluation process. We already know the numbers side of baseball, I would like to understand the scouting side better too.

Interesting thought and it might worth its own discussion (and y'all know how I feel about the Twins' brass). That said: Several of the college relievers they drafted last draft have started before. The same with the 2011 draft. The old scout complaint that "a guy has only one pitch so he better be a reliever" should be mediated during player development (and the Twins practically never did that - that's part (like 20% - small) of the reason I am saying 'good riddance' to Rantz). So: the margins and definitions of a reliever and a starter are vary hairy. Couple fun Twins names to throw into the mix: Rick Aguilera and Brian Duensing. And they both fought (and one is still fighting) to be starters. Eddie and LaTroy gave the ghost up early. But, yeah, in my book at least 5 of the kids they drafted as relievers the last 2 drafts can be starters. I wasn't crazy about the reliever-happy nature of last year's draft. On the other hand, I think the front office deserves some time to play their hand. It's obvious that they're bringing a different brand of thinking to the table and I'm curious to see how it unfolds. Are we looking at a new Moneyball or have the Twins gone insane? Time will tell. At the very least, the concept is intriguing. Those relievers were drafted lower in the draft. yes they were top 10 picks but not 1 or 2. If Buxton and Barrios make the team then this is a successful draft regardless. If one of the relievers is able to make it as a starter, then that much more and if one of those relivers makes it as a reliever too then that is a great draft in a supposed weak draft class.

I think the best course from a PR standpoint is to bring in a starting pitcher with a name. Then bring in another one or preferably 2 that could be a low cost option incuding resigning scott baker. That gives the impression we are doing what we can to field a winner as then there would be numerous candidates for the rotation next year. Finding a solid SS wouldn't hurt either.

1. The Twins have a few tradeable assets this offseason without purging the team. We have an extra leadoff hitting OF. We even have several replacement candidates ready or almost ready with the type of hitter we need. Parmelee, Arcia, then Hicks. What the offense needs is one of those guys to step in and be a solid hitter. 2. We also need for either Plouffe to be able to have a .750+ OPS next year with 25HRs or a solid hitting replacement waiting in the wings to take over. So who would be a solid hitting bench 3b that can play elsewhere too and not cost more than 2 million per? Signing a player like that would probably give us one of our deepest benches ever too as Mastrionni, OF Prospect(take your pick), Doumit...not bad. 3. This one is a biggie. We need a SS. We get a solid hitting SS and the offense is practically set. 4. On pitching we have a solid bullpen with several arms waiting in the minors for a chance. Maybe sign a bullpen arm or go dumpsterdiving again for relief depth. 5. The rotation has developed several solid depth starters this year. 5th, 6th, and 7th starters And a solid #3. So at this point if we resign Baker and can get 2 solid starters with 1 being a #2 quality starter we should be able to compete next year. In Short 1 SS, 1 3b-IF bench bat, 3 SP, and relief depth....This seems extremely possible especially since the hard part SP can be GIbson, Baker, and Hendriks and there is a deep rotation. The hard part is going to be getting a capable SS in my opinion. If only the team would be willing to take a chance and go back to the 100 million 105 million payroll number.

I like Johnson but my vote is for Shields over Johnson. Shields may not be as good as Johnson but he will help the bullpen be more effective by pitching deeper into games and getting them more rest once every 5 days.

Don't forget to add Minnesota's own Carl Pavano to the list of pitchers looking at minor league deals this offseason.

I'll go with the trade for shields. though I have no idea what it would take to get him. fun to speculate....Span, Rosario, and Burton maybe sign Joe Blanton to 2 year 18 million with 3rd year option and Baker to a 1 year 3-4 million with some incentives 1-3 million maybe and with a 1 year 8-10 option. Thats just over 20 million to fix the rotation. And the options give the Twins flexibilty to either save money on production or end the relationship before losses mount. These moves have the potential to help keep the rotation stable for the next 2-3 years. Shields Blanton Baker Diamond Hendricks, Gibson, Deduno, and Devries and I guess Blackburn gets a glance in spring training too. Thats a solid rotation with depth in case of injury or ineffectiveness.

The offense is already half improved from within. Next year we have Parmelee trying to show he is ready to make Morneau expendable so they can bring up Arcia or Hicks to take over RF when Parmalee takes over 1B. So the only way left to improve the offense is going to be with a SS or a back up IF as Mastroianni is the back up OF. So to start the season the lineup will be: CF Revere 2b Carroll C Mauer LF Willingham 1B Morneau then Parmelee RF Parmelee then Arcia 3B Plouffe DH Doumit SS Floriman

Players who made the list twice had considerably more success or more playing time than those that only made the list once. Restovich is the big example of one who didn't get much playing time.

But look at how much the Angels lineup improved when Trout was promoted. I am going with Trout for MVP. while you need to drive in more runs to win games, Preventing them goes along way too so defense should be considered.

I think the 6.5 million for 3 years would be a great siging for the Twins but I think the ability to earn incentives makes it a fair for both sides contract. maybe add 300-500k per year incentives to that contract and its great for both sided.

I'd be ok if they declined his option and brought him back on a 1 year 1-2 million with incentives to make up to say 3 million contract as he probably won't have a lot of suitors this offseason, and Perkins will likely remain as closer. While we have lots of relievers and prospects, you can't have too many of them either.

If Texas is ready to play Profar next year then they have a reasonably priced SS for the next 3 years who they can trade (Andrus). The Twins could be a good fit in 1 of 2 trade scenarios. 1. If the Rangers lose Hamilton this offseason they could trade Andrus for something like Span or Revere to take over CF and Andrus leadoff spot and the Twins could throw in Burton or a prospect to balance out the trade. (Hermann or Doumit could be a fit since Napoli is a FA. but I bet he resigns with Texas) Or since Cruz is a fa after next season we could trade Arcia or Hicks instead of Span for Andrus. There are several win/ win scenarios here and it should be looked into if Texas is open to moving one of those SS.

Texas has a CF thats going to be a free agent this offseason and Cruz will be a FA soon so is Napoli. There are several things they can use in a trade. We have lots of OF prospects. How about Arcia and Hermann and Slama for Andrus. My trade ideas may not be the best but you could use Span or Revere in a trade as well.

If we retain Baker on an incentive filled contract we should have the money available to fill all of our needs. Here would be my projected rotation. Blanton Baker Diamond Blackburn Devries, Hendricks, Walters, Deduno Gibson will be in play around June/July for a rotation spot and Blackburn could lose his spot at any time. I would prefer to get another starter but we will have depth next year. I do think DeVries is the best 5th starter candidate at this point. I also wanted to add that Minn could address the other hole on out team either aquiring a 2b or SS and move Dozier to 2nd. Or signing one but I dont see tomany options out there. And with Butera, Mastroianni, and Carroll on the bench with the flexibilty of Doumit, we could sign a bench bat to help the offense. outside of Thome no real suggestions but having a bat off the bench sounds like a good idea Thome or not.

I believe Dozier will get better next year. I believe they need a new 2b with Carroll as the utility player. I am fine with Revere's production especially at his cost. I am more convinced that Morneau has it figured out more than Parmelee does so I hope they keep Morneau. Doumit is doing the job and doing it cheep. I think this exercise also poiints out the need for a professional bat off the bench. With a bench of Mastroianni, Carroll and Butera and Doumits versatity, can the Twins now bring back THome to PH and DH for one more season next year?

Why not see about extending Morneau with a 2 year 12-15 million extension? Is he worth something like that? I think he is a good candidate to buy low on and keep in the fold. He will have the concussion potential issues but he seems to be moving further past them. A 2 year extension will keep him in Minn through age 34. that is not too old. and if we can get it done at a value price then all the better. The extension could come this offseason or after next spring if he is still healthy. If he starts out hitting well, I could see a 2 year 20 million extention too.

maybe he could go to instructional league after the season to work on 2b. that is probably better than using major league games to determine if he can play 2B. If he shows some promise then next season he starts out as a 4th OF backup 2b pinch runner and can continue to show he can hit and work on 2nd base then he could go back to instructional league and win 2b job in 2014. That would be a more realistic progression unless he is fielding ok and hitting over .300 at the breake next year.

who is paying the remaining 2 million on Liriano's contract? I guess that could swing the pendulum of value some.

This reminds me of the Luid Castillo trade. Then we got Butera and the OF that was a AAA OF. Looks like we just got the next generation Punto and a lefty who may be a reliever we'll see. I had hoped to hear a we got B or B+ prospect. But it could be worse.