Riverbrian

Who knows but restoring trade value is a big part of any equation. It isn’t just what they can do for us. You have to consider what they could also bring us.

Starters are absolutely more valuable. Good starters that is. And of course I’m talking in the traditional sense. But... Bad starters will kill you completely and consistently and teams are rolling out bad starters just to fit a traditional model. Even with modern usage. The goal is still to get more innings out of your top performers. If Romero is hanging zeros in the majors. Give him more innings to hang those zero. This effectively stretches him out regardless if he starts or comes in later. If he isn’t hanging zeros. He should go to Rochester for that reason and throw innings down there to improve. What I don’t want to see is 60 good innings when he is capable of 140 good innings. It’s a waste of 80 good innings.

It's not just the immediate metro. Seattle also gets Portland. Minnesota has the Twins Cities and a lot of towns with Grain Elevators. That's why MLB has to force team relocation's or possible expansion cities. Every market has been claimed by the existing franchises as part of their territory. The Mariners are going to fight tooth and nail to keep Portland from getting a franchise just like the Orioles fought the Expos move to D.C. The commissioners office and the other owners had to basically cram it down the Orioles throat. The Giants were able to stop the A's from moving to San Jose. Atlanta has the South claimed. St. Louis has Memphis. We got Sioux Falls and Fargo and of course... Little Falls.

As of February 12, 2019... It is possible to throw 140 innings or more out of a (non-traditional) bullpen. It matters not... if the the pitcher gets those 140 plus innings by starting at the beginning of the game or if the pitcher comes into the game in a different inning down the line. Starters can throw less than 5 innings and relievers can throw more than 1 inning. The only question or concern I will have is this: Will he deserve to throw 140 innings based on his performance, as it happens? I will absolutely have both eyes and ears on utilization this year and every year in the future.

Exactly... Waiting on the core to show something is just plain bad strategy. If they show something this year... you'll want the proper support to augment the improved performance. If they don't show something this year... You'll want the proper support to try and remain competitive. Our 2019 level of breakouts and bounce backs or lack thereof... isn't just worse case scenario or best case scenario... the possibilities are everywhere in between worst and best case scenarios. No matter what... proper support is necessary because we are not the Orioles in need of a complete tear down. If we are in need of a complete tear down... the organization is broken.

The players simply didn't see it coming. They were fine with the structure as long as Ricky Nolasco got 48 million and Ricky Nolasco got 48 million for years upon years. Then the number guys came along and noticed that the league minimum guys were just as productive as the Ricky Nolasco types being paid 48 million and they just stopped doing it and they stopped collectively as a group and this activated the trap door in the CBA that was always there. Now that number guys are consistently refusing to pay longer term contracts to players in their 30's... the players are going to be forced to fight back by demanding that they reach free agency earlier. It will be a battle between the owners and players for control of the 27 year old. I side with my front office within the framework of the current agreement because it was agreed upon... but I side with the players for a much better future agreement on their behalf. If I were the commissioner... I'd tell the owners to throw some free agent bones out there to keep the peace. That isn't happening... the owners are squeezing on the front end and now the back end. Therefore the players have no choice but to band together and fight back. It will be ugly.

Yep There are no victims here. Besides you and me drinking that 10 buck beer.

you forgot to include the entire San Francisco Giants roster.

I think having money allows you to absorb bad contracts. Teams with less money to spend may not end up crippled with a bad contract but They will at least limp as a result. Big money teams just carry on. In my opinion... it is possible that when you just look at the production... everybody is playing by the same arb rules so it evens out a little.

Not quite. I can't stress this enough. I don't believe in a "25th man spot" and refuse to designate someone in that sense. I only see roster spots. Tyler Austin would have a roster spot and the right to compete for as much playing time as he earns in comparison with his teammates. I believe that as soon as you designate someone for a 25th roster spot role, or designate anyone for reduced playing time and then subsequently give them one of the 25 man roster spot. You've blown it before the season even starts. The reason is real simple... we can count on someone (usually multiple players) from the "projected starting 9" to either get hurt or struggle. I have probably the same concerns with Adrianaza as you do by my concerns will manifest themselves differently. I'm saying that Adrianaza BETTER GET 300 AB's if you give him a roster spot or you have wasted that roster spot. With Adrianaza... I don't know if he is the guy I would have chose for a roster spot but if the front office has chosen him.... they must believe in him... now they must provide ample opportunity for him to justify the selection. They could have traded for someone like Profar or signed someone like Lowrie or Tulo but they didn't... instead they offered a contract to Adrianaza early. I will wait until the off-season is complete to see how the roster shapes up... I will also wait past that... right into the season before I make any judgements What I don't ever want to see again... Is struggling players playing every day like they are Mike Trout. And I especially don't want to ever hear again... "we have to play the struggling player every day because all we have is Ryan Lamarre. I got beat up last year by posters... I was accused of being a Ryan Lamarre bobo. My point about Ryan Lamarre was consistent... You gave him a roster spot with whatever methodology that I don't have access to... He's gathering dust on the bench and we have players who suck right now playing every day. Play him or cut him. Quit wasting precious 25 man roster space with players that you don't want to play. And rostering a player with the intention of playing in a diminished role is a player that you don't want to play. I've looked at playing time allocation and roster management for the Twins over the past decade. I studied it and I looked at again... 3 4 5 times and came to the same conclusion each time. The Twins consistently reward Average to Below Average to Bad Players with everyday playing time when they should be competing for that playing time. This fundamental issue has slowed our rebuild to a crawl. The reason it's crawling is because nobody is increasing in value. Just look and see what we got back for the limited trades we made. It's a laundry list of names who became nothing. Look at what our departing free agents got for contracts and how soon they were out of baseball after being everyday players for us. We got nothing of value to trade... we have no room for rookies to play and increase in value because we have been blocked up with 9 starting AVERAGE baseball players. I'm saying that if you are going to take this approach with the average baseball player. You need more of them... Don't go average one at a time with a starting 9... You need to flood it and reward the best performer. That's how you find Astudillo and Cave. That's how you find Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez, David Ortiz. That's how you stop Logan Morrison from playing every day... that's how you become bullet proof and how you stop yourself from going down with the ship. Speaking of Astudillo... Yep... we agree 100%. He has options... players with options remaining allows you to keep the player close by while you give a player without options a chance. Players with options remaining should blow the doors down before you waste that potential depth. Because either Castro or Garver is going to get hurt and someone needs to show up from Rochester and it better not be Bobby Wilson. One last thing... I'm still thinking of Ash's word "Appreciably" from an earlier post. We all seem to imagine in our head the starting 9 playing "Appreciably" better than the others. In the past decade... how often have we had starting players performing "Appreciably" better. There's been a few but not that many. Certainly miles from close enough to ever think we have this "STARTING 9" thing down to a science". Alright... i feel better. Til next time. I'll be back with this again I'm sure.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/23/18193861/multiposition-players-flexibility-jed-lowrie-dj-lemahieu This article is a must read

If Astudillo continues to hit like he did last year (That's a big If in my opinion). He would be the best hitting catcher in baseball. However... it is a big big If and I believe that he still has to do it again to fully earn it. We are still in a small sample size with him. I am pulling for him... big time. As for the 25th spot... Personally... I lose sleep over it. I don't like calling it the 25th spot. I think spots 1 through 25 should be simply "Roster Spots" with no number attached to them. Let's the players sort out the rankings by how they perform.

Agreed and that's why I'm excited about the Cruz signing. You bolded appreciably and I appreciate that because that's the key. The Twins typically haven't had a player who was appreciably better. That's why I'm having a hard time appreciating them in hindsight. In my perfect world... they fill the roster with legit competition up and down... and maybe... just maybe... hopefully... someday... we end up with 4 OF'ers who can all play and then we can use that DH spot for honest to God overflow. Unless... Rosario could play 3B. Right now my main worry is backing up Sano... Would have loved to have a DH who could also play 3B. Oh Well... I'm happy we got Cruz. Here's to 40 dingers.

Totally agree on Cruz... His bat makes it a great signing but... not being able to man a position gives you one less spot and leaves the team exposed in case of injury or bad performance. I know many think of Adrianaza/Torreyes as after thoughts... but they shouldn't be. Those guys are the next men up. Astudillo... I agree with both you and Diehard. In my opinion... based on the parameters of the CBA. If a player has options... he has to knock the doors down. Meaning... he has to be heads and shoulders better than the guy without options. Castro doesn't have options so he gets a spot. Both Garver and Astudillo have options so the club can choose one with the other in Rochester ready for a call up. Cave has options... he has to knock the doors down... otherwise... stash him in Rochester for depth and go get an OF with talent to join Buxton, Kepler and Rosario. "OF (insert name here) with talent plus Cave in Rochester is better than Cave in the majors and no OF (insert name here) with talent. It just seems so easy... it's working elsewhere. I can't imagine why the FO isn't on board. We will see come April when the playing time distribution is displayed for us all to see.

I've been trying to stay off this topic for awhile since I spend a sizable chunk of time hammering on it but... an new article has been written so here I go again. Good article... Thanks for starting the discussion. I've looked at this Roster Resource D.L. tracker many times. I'm not suggesting the methodology is good, bad or anything in between but using the information provided, it suggests that while the Twins didn't have Houston type luck this year on the injury front, the injuries they had were typical and compares with the majority of the league. Other teams who had similar or worse injury luck in 2018 made the playoffs, including both World Series teams. The Dodgers, Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Brewers and Cubs were either worse or comparable. The point is this.... Injuries happen and they need to be expected!!! Twins were woefully under prepared for any and all possibilities. I will also go on record as saying that some disabled list stints actually improved our club. The same D.L. stints that drove the number actually resulted in better production from their replacements. Cave was an improvement over Buxton... he wasn't supposed to be but he was. Adrianaza was an improvement over what Sano brought to us... he wasn't supposed to be... but he was. Dozier and Morrison after the damage had been done, said that they were struggling because of injuries. I contend that if Dozier and Morrison would have been placed on the DL... The Twins injury metric on Roster resource would have went up but... there would also be a strong possibility that the team would have improved because the replacement would have out produced what we got. The Dodgers got nailed with injuries last year... worse than we did. They survived it because they have made themselves bullet proof by staffing their 25 man roster to the hilt. It wasn't done with money like many assume... they simply don't allow the big contract guys to take the team down. If they struggle, they are D.L'ed, cut or they play less. They use depth and flexibility to survive and I believe they are bullet proof as a result. Take notice... The Yankees and Mets appear to have joined the Dodgers, Cubs and Rays when it comes to depth and flexibility. We'll see but they have both overstaffed at this point and will need to move people around to accommodate. The answer is so absolutely simple. Build your 25 man roster to compete with each other for playing time and may the best man win. The Twins (All of Baseball actually) has to quit picking out 9 guys and then finding 4 scrubs to fill out the roster. The Dodgers and Cubs don't do this and it pays off. I am praying loudly for all to hear, that the Twins have a 25 man roster full of players who the front office believes can play full time and then I am hoping that the new manager will then give each player on the 25 man roster the opportunity to win the Lion's share of playing time by simply out playing the other players. If the front office believes that Adrianaza is that guy... I don't... but I will give the front office the benefit of the doubt. But if... Sano is hitting under .200 and Adrianaza is on the bench watching him hit under .200 everyday. I will then know that they signed Adrianaza to play getaway days, I will know that they are trying to force the issue with Sano and I will know that they allowed Sano to take the team down with him and I will also know that they could have done something about this in the off-season by simply looking at how the Dodgers did it. Bottom Line... Injuries can't be predicted specifically but it can be predicted that they will happen. Bad performance can't be predicted specifically but it can be predicted that it will happen. Now is when you prepare for those possibilities. Right now... this off season... Not after the season starts, forcing you to hope that Motter can rescue you. I will not buy any similiar "we expected more out of Buxton, Sano and Dozier" excuses. None of us should. There job is to staff the 25 and 40 man rosters. Picking out just 9 of them is not going to get the job done.

These are big boys looking across the table at each other, playing big boy games. https://nypost.com/2019/01/15/yasmani-grandal-why-i-turned-down-mets-60-million-offer/ https://www.southsidesox.com/2019/1/23/18195182/white-sox-yasmani-grandal-free-agent-collusion-confusion

If a pitcher is good... he should be developed for as many innings as possible. It doesn't matter to me what inning he enters the game. It doesn't matter if it's 6 innings at a time on traditional rest or 3 innings at a time with half the traditional rest. Give the bulk of the innings to pitchers who hang the zeros and stop trying to force a 5 man starting rotation with 5 plus ERA filler just to be traditional. Pitch Well... Pitch More Pitch poorly... Pitch less.

That's the thing about pitchers. They have multiple light switches on the wall and they just got to locate one of them. Corey Kluber didn't just roll out of bed with that nasty breaking pitch. It was something that he developed over time and it saved his career. He went from an also-ran to elite in the blink of an eye. Any pitcher is capable of changing the shape of a pitch or change the velocity of something that wasn't working previously... or... finding something altogether new and therefore changing results and expectations dramatically. Johan Santana didn't just arrive to the professional ranks with that circle-change but the circle-change changed him. Great article Parker!

Exactly My hope... my prayer actually... is that Baldelli and the collective brain trust play the players who are playing the best... and that's it. If that is Buxton... fantastic... if it's Michael Reed... OK. I'm not saying that Buxton should be cut or traded at absolute low value, because he has an option left and years of control left. There is time to fix him. But I am saying that in 2019 and beyond the 4th OF position is a role on the team that is EARNED by whoever is playing worse than the other 3. If they offer the same excuse in 2019 that Buxton or Sano didn't perform or stay healthy like they were projected to. I'm going to reply with "Same as last year, lesson was not learned". Charlie Brown should have found a holder that he could trust. Instead he kept believing in Lucy. It isn't Lucy's fault.

The Key to 2019 is Falvey and Lavine and Baldelli... They are all one now. They got their own guy. Front offices, Managers and lineup cards are so intertwined these days. They can no longer be easily separated. Falvey and Lavine now have a hand picked guy in Baldelli. The three of them will have my full support until they fail to adjust to failed play like they did in 2018. I also have no choice but to renew my opposition to any expressed sentiment that Byron Buxton is the key (might be or any degree) to anything. Buying into that narrative just absolves the front office from any responsibility. Much like the excuse last year... "We didn't get the performance we projected from Sano, Buxton or Dozier". Buying (even slightly) into the narrative that it all rests in the shaky hands of a young outfielder just lets them use the same excuse again in 2019. The front office (which Baldelli is now part of since they are intertwined) is the key to 2019. It's the people who hire the people. If Buxton or Sano fails... don't blame Buxton or Sano... blame the front office and do not swallow the excuse... we projected more out of Buxton and Sano... Don't buy it, because they had an entire season and off-season to address it. Welcome to Minnesota... Rocco Baldelli.

Fantastic Post Thank You

It's a good question. One on hand... Everybody develops at their own pace and I imagine that things like buy-in are factors. One the other hand... Where are our Superstars?

It's insert name here. I've heard that everybody has a price so who knows. You are more informed than I when it comes to prospects. I tip my hat to you so... What do you think the Twins would have to pay to acquire Realmuto? Realistically. Once you come up with that... Offer that same package to every team in the league and what do you feel would shake loose from each club.

I tend not to play in those waters because I can only base the market on what actually happens and I purposely try not form impressions of players on the farm that haven't faced major league competition yet. Based on what is happening... The value of a prospect has never been higher in my opinion. The Ivy league GM's across baseball (That wasn't a slam... they all seem to be from the Ivy league now). Seem to have placed enormous value on years of control and the free agents are falling by the wayside. You simply can't get Torres for a Chapman rental anymore. JP Crawford is now somehow worth Segura, Nicasio and Pazos. Yeah I know... Santana was thrown into the deal. The Dodgers, The Yankees, The Giants we're teams who would normally cough up prospects for experienced talent and they are not doing it anymore it seems. So if I had to guess... Nobody wants to give up their top prospects and are trying to get Realmuto for a the next level prospect or prospects and the Marlins of course want the top prospects so we all have to wait for someone to blink. This game of chicken has been going on for awhile and demands would probably be lowered to a package of 2nd level prospects... so... I think Kirilloff and prospect #12 in our system gets it done. Just guessing of course but I'm still not making the deal.

I can't speak for Tom but I don't believe he or I mentioned Kirilloff specifically. I know that I didn't. My point is that I'm under the impression that "someone like" Kluber (Tom Mentioned Syndergaard) is going to be a similar price to the price tag to acquire Realmuto in a trade. I don't know for sure but if I'm close to right... I'd rather spend that "Limited Resource" on a Kluber or Syndergaard. Not even sure if those guys are actually available for acquisition. I just won't pay the position scarcity price for elite catching.