Riverbrian

Thanks for the topic. I appreciate this as a thought exercise. It's been a fun read. I love out of the box thinking. You are a talented poster in my opinion. The data doesn't look like it supports the idea enough. Does that data from 2017 repeat in 2018 and 2019 etc. etc. ? Even if it does repeat. Lots of performers throwing data into a pot at every position. Is the risk increase or decrease for a single individual miniscule or massive? But perhaps most importantly... How does anyone write Max Kepler's name into a starting spot and say covered? ? ?

I find baseballtradevalues to be very close to accurate when you plug trades that actually happen into it. The Twins have no one in the Sean Murphy value ballpark. Baseballtradevalues has Sean Murphy with a median value of 51.3. Shohei Ohtani has median value of 52. Sean Murphy: 2022 - .250 18 HR's. OPS .759 2021 - .216 17 HR's - OPS .710 Shohei Ohtani: 2022 - .273 34 HR's - OPS .875 2021 - .257 46 HR's - OPS .965 Please look at the offensive numbers of Mr. Murphy - .250 18 HR's and .710. How many outfielders are feeling secure they will keep their jobs with numbers like that. Please don't over pay for catching. Don't ever over pay for catching. For the price you over pay you could acquire a SUPERSTAR. Oneil Cruz would be cheaper to acquire. You get Shane Bieber for that price. I have a better idea... if the catching prices are inflated and they are and they have been for a long time now. A better idea would be to... IDK... Develop your own and then trade that incredible inflated value to someone else. Of course,.. it's hard to build that young catcher into inflated value when you are buying his replacement at the inflated price instead. ?

It sounds terrible when you phrase it "wasting starter innings" But, for my own clarity. What exactly are "wasting starter innings? Also... If 60 relief appearances contribute to more wins than 26 starts. Contracts would reflect that. To my knowledge the current top Closer deal in baseball belongs to Raisel Iglasias who signed for 4 years/58 million. Zach Wheeler the non-ace signed at 5 years/118 million. Only 9 relievers made more money than Dylan Bundy last year. If 60 relief appearances contribute to more wins than 26 starts. The Arbitrators, Agents and Front offices are collectively off in la-la land. ?

Counter - Counter - Counterpoint: There is a lot of space in between the North and South poles. ? These discussions shouldn't be either or but they are. Option A - He throws 5 and then rests 5 Option B - He Throws 1 and then rests 1 Option C - There is no option C... There is nothing in between... Nothing else is possible. Go Back and look at Option A and Option B and decide between the two... There is no option C. I can't believe you even looked for an option C after reading option A and B. Option D - Get Duran more innings. Maybe 20 more... Let's see how he does. ?

Now that catching appears to be in the crosshairs, turns out that starting pitching might have been the beginning of a Twinsdaily content plan. I therefore have withdrawn my objection because my original objection was impulsively ill-timed and impatiently naïve. Judge: Good Morning Everyone, please take your seats. Lawyer: I OBJECT! Judge: Over ruled - OK Before we get to opening statements.

I want to apologize for getting bugged over the string of pitching articles. Now that it has moved to a string of catching articles... It appears that Twinsdaily is beginning to take us on an off-season tour position by position and that I was being impatient. Carry on

Cool... Hope they sign him. However... If the process goes deep into the off-season, which has been known to happen with Boras. This could really hamstring our pursuit of other free agents due to the clock running out. I assume they would have to hold the necessary funds for the possibility of signing Correa and can't spend it while courting him. Going for it and losing him late in the off-season could leave a 35 million dollar unrealized hole. ?

If it is your plan to DEVELOP Ryan Jeffers into a short side platoon player. Go ahead and severely restrict his experience facing right handed pitchers because Ryan Jeffers future with the club will no longer matter once you make that decision. Starve him of AB's against right handed pitchers and let's see how he does against right handed pitchers in a couple of years when he hasn't been allowed to regularly face them while the Twins are trying to decide if he is worth the Arb Money. Ryan Jeffers will be a free agent in 2027. If you have already decided that he can't and will never hit right-handers. There is no reason to roster him in 2023 because he will have no future value. Just humanely kill him now instead of slowly painfully PURPOSEFULLY putting him to sleep. By releasing him, you will give him a chance to join another organization that will give him an actual chance to become something... while you take that roster spot that you decided to NOT DEVELOP and give the roster spot to someone that you believe might DEVELOP into something. Your choice... you can DEVELOP a roster spot or you can put it to sleep with a pillow. There are only 26 and 40 of them. If you feel that the platoon advantage trumps what I am saying above... go ahead... but let me add that, it is also possible that Omar Narvaez will get hurt in September during a pennant chase and you will need Ryan Jeffers to all of a sudden spring to life against something that you have kept from him. If you decide to sign Narvaez so you can set up a platoon with Jeffers. Please sign another decent lefty swinging catcher that can play in September in case Narvaez gets hurt.

We might as well get used to the young arms. 40 Man roster limitations will make the veteran reclamation project harder to roster as the farm keeps producing more lettuce. This is why I remain optimistic about the direction of the organization. You have 40 spots on the 40 man to work with. At minimum 13 of those spots need to be position players because 13 are required on the 26 man. That leaves 27 spots for potential pitching. Make it 22-23 or 24 spots available because you need young talent that can be called up to perform at IF and OF when injuries occur and we all know they occur. The 40 man is tight and the 26 man roster will most likely not have the space for veteran innings eater types because there are 9 potential starters for consideration on opening day as the roster stands now.

Avoid over paying for catching when resources are limited.

Having the best at any position is supposed to be helpful. Realmuto is good. In the other dugout... The Astros are finding other positions being helpful.

Thanks Much appreciated

I'll continue to "waste my summer praying in vain... that a savior will rise from these streets". Until then I will "Show a little faith, there's magic in the night". "You ain't a beauty but hey you're alright... and that's alright with me". Gotta listen to the Springer... Even if he plays for the Blue Jays. These two lanes will take us anywhere.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Boras represents Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. So if Boras is playing the Dodgers card with Correa... What Card does he play with Turner?

Other than they are the stats that cumulated into a 28-40 record.

I get frustrated when I get bumped off my point because I'm being required to express that I understand elementary concepts. It's like the Knights who say Ni are demanding a shrubbery from me just to continue on. The reason for the topic was recalibration of off-season priorities but mostly I'm filing a grievance toward the avalanche of ACE articles. It's been over a week and there is nothing else to do on this website but drink from this firehouse. Your post illustrates a significant difference between us. You list 8 outfielders and think pretty impressive. I see those 8 outfielders... I like the depth and options... I think it's a great album but I'm not sure that there is a hit single on it... and I just can't unsee the utter collapse post all-star break of 3 (Kepler, Celestino, Garlick) of the 8 that you list knowing that Buxton is perpetually inches from a week or more of unavailability. I do agree that context matters and numbers could never tell the whole story, however, I only have numbers and eyeballs to work with because I'm not in the dugout to offer such explanations. I'd be more inclined to go with gripping the bat too tight over lack of motivation. If there is a player who lost motivation due to blown saves while in a pennant chase... I'd want them gone. ?

I understand that Post all-star break is less than half the season. 68 games to be exact. I didn't place Pagan on my list. I've posted my personal feelings on Pagan multiple times. Pagan placed himself there.

Thanks. It was an Oops. ?

Excellent Post

Thank you for this post. It actually advances the conversation and I really appreciate that. The numbers you list are full season while I used post all-star break. Let's use my format for the 1st half. I'll take the top 16 by utilization on each side again. OPS (2022 League Average was .704) 40 AB's to make the top 16 for this discussion Above 2022 League Average (8 Pre - 5 Post) Lewis - .867 Arraez - .856 Garlick - .853 Buxton - .824 Correa - .803 Polanco - .786 Kepler - .739 Miranda - 737 League Average (4 Pre - 2 Post) Urshela - .718 Larnach - .712 Kirilloff - .711 Gordon - .704 Below League Average (4 Pre - 9 Post (taking out Jeffers ?)) Sanchez - .685 Jeffers - .666 Celestino - .652 Sano - .379 ERA (league average 3.96) 20 IP to make the top 16 for this discussion Above 2022 League Average (8 Pre - 9 Post) Megill - 2.25 Duran - 2.36 Cotton - 2.76 Ryan - 2.99 Jax - 3.20 Archer - 3.41 Gray - 3.71 Winder - 3.77 Average (4 Pre - 2 Post) Duffey - 3.96 (Yeah I know but the numbers are the numbers) Ober - 4.01 Smeltzer - 4.02 Paddack - 4.03 Below League Average (4 Pre - 5 Post) Bundy - 4.71 Thielbar - 4.84 Smith - 4.88 Pagan - 5.23 While the names changed here and there - Collectively the pitching held serve from the 1st half to 2nd half. The offense didn't. The Twins were 50-44 pre-all star break and they were 28-40 post. You and I both know that injuries played an enormous role in the under-lying conditions causing this offensive discrepancy. So let's plug the injured names back in to start 2023 in order to build that roster. Unavailable due to injury during the 2nd half collapse: Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff Throw in the often injured no reason to believe they won't get hurt again: Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis Now place your top hitter Carlos Correa in Free Agency because he's gone. You are starting 2023 with Arraez, Miranda, Urshela and Gordon as your stable 4 based on 2022. Hoping that Polanco and Kepler rebound to make it a stable 6 and that Buxton stays healthy to make it 7. We don't know what Larnach or Kirilloff are at this point but we are putting way too much on their young shoulders to keep our offensive heads above water. We need a bat more than we need an Ace.

Why are we only looking at 2nd half #s? That's when the wheels came off, that's where we ended the season which then propels forward into next season. That's when we really needed to compete with the Guardians. and why are we looking at ERA? What good is ERA if many aren't giving us enough innings? A lot of our pitchers were injured most of the season Simplicity. What I dislike is people spinning stats to fit their scenerio with out looking at under-lying conditions. What have I ever done to make people think that I don't understand under-lying conditions. Do I need to make my post longer by listing everybody that was on the disabled list to prove that I understand that we had a lot of people on the disabled list?

I've often said "I want 26 guys who can play". I'm talking about that balance you mention when I say that. I think we are on the same page. Good pitching beats good hitting is a great catch phrase and all and sometimes it does. However, those inclined to make that catch phrase gospel will probably whistle right past Justin Verlander and two tough starts out of three this post season despite an ace like 1.75 ERA during the regular season. Those inclined will probably go on to insist that we sign Verlander because we can't win in the playoffs without an ACE. Don't get me wrong... I'd love to have Verlander next year but sometimes the offense is going to have to beat that ACE and sometimes they do. When you get to the playoffs, you will want all portions of your game because you don't know which one will bring you home or what combinations will advance you to the next round. You might need pitching to beat the Yankees in round one and then need to out slug the Orioles in the next round. So... I'd like 26 guys who can play. Balance... I agree and I think the balance is off with the hitting behind the pitching side as things stand right now.

Josh Hader was on that rumor mill for a while before they eventually shipped him to the Padres. The Brewers didn't want to pay that 13 or so million to Hader in that final Arb year (2023). Woodruff and Burnes are both 2nd year Arbitration in 2023 so... cashing out wouldn't be completely out of character. There is no way that I would do it. I'm supporting that rotation. I'm not selling off for parts.

This is a discussion that was intended to take place on a different thread that accidentally spilled over to this one. But if you go back to it... You will see that I clearly type "How many innings can each pitcher throw effectively is the question". I'm talking about maximizing what they are capable of. Please understand that I understand that each pitcher is unique. I understand that they possess different capabilities either natural or nurtured. It's hard to make any progress with my goofy ideas if the person responding to them doesn't believe that I understand a rather elementary concept such as the difference between a max effort bullpen guy and crafty starter. I tried once to talk about the platooning of Kyle Garlick and the response I get is on the value of platooning. I have always understood the value of platooning but this is where I have to spin my wheels if I try to advance the conversation as a thought exercise. Anyway, this is a discussion intended for another thread. And No... The Twins did not do what I was talking about. And No... very few subscribe to it because Bundy is still eating innings and relievers are still throwing an inning at a time.

I haven't heard that chatter. If it is sourced out of the Brewers front office that would be sad news for Brewer Fans. They have that rotation that everybody else is trying to get.