Riverbrian

Here is what I said: The SS who can also play 2B or 3B. Go young. This is where we try make a trade to bring in someone with years of control. Major league ready prospect is what I'd like to see. We work too hard to attach labels to things. Starter - Bench... it trips people up. I don't like the terms. I'm looking for ball players period. Their play will attach the labels. We got Culpepper to play SS, We got Lee to play 3B, We got Clemens to play 2B. What we don't have is someone who can challenge them. We will need that... and we will need Houston to keep his nice rise going as well.

Who said starting SS? 😉

I won't argue with that approach. It's fine by me. Just accumulate talent as much as you can. And don't ever stop short and stuff your roster with lesser players on purpose. People talk of log jams. I've never seen one. A legitimate log jam means you are going to the playoffs because you got talent bursting at the seems. A legitimate log jam means you have trade chips with actual value than can load up the next wave. This team can't free agent there way into this. They must develop their way to this. I don't want my manager on auto-pilot with the lineup card. Hoping today is the day that Royce Lewis figures it out with even lesser options to choose from. I don't want my summer to be sunk by sinking ball players and we lack the alternatives to fix it. I want my manager tearing his hair out trying to figure out how to get playing time for all because they are all kicking ass. And I'll tell you... A good manager can do that. A bad manager can't because he's stuck in some sort of incremental better/worse disease. Necessity is the mother of invention. Let's make it necessary.

I get the argument. I've been having this discussion with many over the years. And I have no personal problem with Kriedler. His bat fell of at the end but he did some nice things at times and won us a few games. And I am all for giving Ben Ross opportunity to see if he can carve out a career. As much as I support younger players and I really really do support them. I think they are beyond necessary to develop them. I also recognize that they are going to develop on their own timeline and you have to prepare for that. My disagreement with you and Mike is rather simple. When you bet on 9 players and 9 players only... you will lose almost every time. Now the fortunate thing is that all 30 teams will lose this bet every time so it equals out to a degree but... I firmly believe that you don't have to limit your options to 9 and the team that realizes that 13 instead of nine increases your possibility of success with more players... they will create for themselves a competitive advantage over the manager or front office doing the 9 thing. If injuries every single year hasn't made that apparent to people... I'm not sure how people are missing that. If Royce Lewis going on a one year plus slump doesn't make it apparent. If Keashcall getting moved to the OF doesn't make it apparent to all... If the consistent ever changing context from day to day, week to week, month to month, year to year for all 30 teams isn't apparent... I have to start doubting who exactly is paying attention as these things pile up like my recyclables when I miss the Thursday pick up. These are 2026 examples, you can go back to 2025, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20 and just keep counting down and you will see that it happens every year. Yet year after year... We place our bets on 9 and we lose every time. Your odds of success will increase by rostering 13 players that you would like to see the field. Instead of 4 disposable players whose greatest value to the team is that they are disposable. And I will guarantee you that those disposable players will see the field. I will never agree with the rostering of any players that you hope never see the field. You want bench players. Here's how your find bench players. Bench the players who fail in their opportunity but never assume that the chosen 9 won't fail or be unavailable for competition... Because I'll bet a large sum of money that a portion of them will because they do every single year for every single team. BTW... My son lives in Maple Grove. It's an awesome suburb.

I will be diving into this at first availabiliy of my time. I believe you are right. I think I'm going to love it. Thanks Again. You Rock.

Besides the obvious that Houston may be hurt in July... and the obvious that he doesn't adjust well to AAA. The answer is this: We currently have Lee, Culpepper, Clemens and Lewis. That's it. Besides the AA guy that you are sure will be replacing one of those 4.

Why would we give up assets for a backup that you don't want to play much. You are worrying about the wrong thing. We should be worrying about the guys that we want to play much... not playing much or not wanting them to play much. If they call up Houston because he is next man up and he is probably the next man up... And they don't play him. It will remove all doubt on why they have a decade long development problem.

Mike... We have no depth on the infield other than Houston. One injury and Houston is on the club. We were as healthy this year as we've ever been and we still ran 5 players through the SS position last year. 6 Through 3B and 7 through 2B. Why would anybody want to run thin on purpose.

I really don't care about the money at this moment. The front office has to make a decision this off-season because a wall is coming. The choice for them is to attempt to mitigate the upcoming collision with the wall this off-season or run full speed into next off-season. The wall is really simple to see. We have 4 starting pitchers next year that will be in their last years of control. Ryan, Lopez, Ober and Kramer. The Twins can either: A. Take the starting pitching that they have next year and the depth provided by Bradley, Matthews, Preilipp, Abel. and say... We have the starting pitching to compete in 2027. This isn't unreasonable. B. Move some of that starting pitching next season to soften the blow with the ball. This also isn't unreasonable. Those 8 pitchers have the potential to comprise a very competitive rotation with the depth necessary to get through 162 games. Yes we will need others to rise up and perform on the mound but every team will need others just to get through a season. Joe Ryan's trade value has (I assume) plummeted to the point that the return may not be worth it now. Pablo Lopez probably doesn't have the trade value to be worth it. However... In my opinion both Ryan and Lopez have the potential to be good pitchers for us and if the trade value has been reduced... I'd consider keeping them now. Ober and Kramer have the ability to be at least average and Bradley looks like a potential superstar to me. I'll also add that I like what I'm seeing out Matthews, Prielipp and Abel having them in St. Paul is a good thing. That pitching staff can support a young developing core on the offensive side and the team can still win ball games because I do not believe a young core means bad year. The Washington Nationals have one of the youngest offensive teams in baseball and they are third in runs scored and third in OPS. It's their pitching that really sucks. So... if the front office chooses to take that starting pitching and go for it. What does the team need? BULLPEN... BULLPEN and infield insurance. The outfield is going to be fine even if we have some injuries or failures. Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Erod and Wallner along with Roden is a good group of 6 to work with. Not to mention Gonzalez or Mendez who could find some time in the sun and Clemens is also an option to play some OF. Y'all will notice that Wallner is still on my list. I know many will disagree with that but if you leave the DH spot alone and don't get a Bell type replacement. I'm going to point out that Wallner is a 30 home run potential guy who still has 2027, 2028 and 2029 before he is eligible for free agency. He is out of options though so he would have to get that 5th OF spot. I apologize to those who curse his name but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. Y'all will notice that Larnach and Martin are not my list. I'll defend Larnach from all the senseless attacks on him from members of this community and I will keep defending him but you trade him for whatever you can this off-season or simply release him if you don't have a taker. Larnach is on his last year and this makes him the same as any one year rental that we have been surviving for the past decade and I personally don't like. Martin... if he is just a short side platoon robbing Erod or Jenkins or Roden of full development. Trade him or place him in St. Paul until he learns to hit right handed pitching and is allowed to hit right handed pitching when he gets called up. If there is any temptation to platoon Jenkins or Erod... Martin is someone who will provide that temptation. I want him gone to remove any such temptation. The infield is still scary. Lee at 3B, Culpepper at SS, Clemens at 2B and Lewis at 1B. We do not have the necessary depth. We hope Lee continues to improve and we hope he never gets hurt. We hope Culpepper is the Culpepper we expect him to be and we hope that he never gets hurt. We hope Clemens continues doing what he has been doing and we hope that he never gets hurt. We hope that Lewis snaps back out of whatever the hell he is in and we hope that he never gets hurt but if anything goes wrong on the infield. We don't have sufficient depth and this must be addressed this off-season regardless if we sell some starting pitching this year or not. I liked what Kriedler did for us this year but we need to aim a little higher. We don't have a proper additional SS and counting on Lewis is just too risky at this point with his protracted below averageness. I'm not throwing Lewis away but I would place him into a 3B, 2B and 1B utility spot. Give him some playing time and make him earn his way to more playing time. The only 1B free agent that interests me is Jake Bauers. Yandy Diaz also interests me but only if he can actually play 1B. Tampa doesn't allow it and I do not want to sign a DH because we will need the DH spot for our accumulating depth. The SS who can also play 2B or 3B. Go young. This is where we try make a trade to bring in someone with years of control. Major league ready prospect is what I'd like to see. Who do we trade to get that SS. I don't know. But we should try to get that done. Catching... We got Caratini and Jackson and catchers rising from the system. Leave it alone. Bullpen... We probably need to be a player here in FA. Get someone with some Gas. Spend money here. Whatever the team above costs. That's what we should spend.

I assume you have Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins and Erod as the top 4 OF already set. Are we are "desperate" for Lane Thomas? How much should we spend for someone who is going to take left on left opportunity from Erod or Jenkins? Play 28% of the time. And who will it be... Will it be Erod or Jenkins that is going to be chosen as not able to hit left handed pitching for the rest of his career. Take my hand... I'll help you climb out of this Rabbit Hole.

Last Game Left Handed Starter September 23 - Cesar Perdomo - Won - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 5 RH 2 Switch 2 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 21-28 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.33 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Record vs RH Starters: 54-56 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.63

It's the people who hire the people.

I don't see a hotel or convenience store anywhere.

September 21 - RH Starter - Blade Tidwell - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 1 Switch 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 53-56 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.64 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- September 22 - RH Starter - Anthony Molina - Won - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 54-56 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.63 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Record vs LH Starters: 20-28 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.33

I recognize the beefy data set as real... However that beefy data set occurred over time. Time is what is being stolen from the developing. We don't give them time. We throw them directly into this beefy data set grinder. Therefore is it hurting more than its helping? The question then becomes: What are you gaining on a per AB or per game basis to justify the time theft? If we are to believe AI. The Per AB and Per Game difference between a .600 OPS and a .700 OPS is: .03 runs per AB - .13 per game. That'll add up to about 1 run per 7 games. That's the gain. Then consider that the .600 and .700 that I am using for this example is not static it is extremely fluid. It takes time to reach the numbers that we hang players with and time is what we take away and we are taking that time away fully completely. What do you lose by stealing time from the developing. What is the cost? Trade Value because you capped it. You have made them unplayable against one side. 10 million a year for Margot or Grichuk types to play 28% of the time just to shield them. Or worse yet... the sacrificing of right handed prospects like Martin or Gonzales because someone has to do the shielding. Plus you have to roster lesser players. When the club calls up Gonzales instead of Erod. It is calling up lesser players just to feed this beefy data set grinder. Any system that requires the selection of lesser players and can justify the selection of lesser players deserves our suspicion as inherently wrong. If we have 10 players to jam into the opposite betters box against left handed starters and we do. We should be more equipped to face a left handed starter. The beefy data set says so. But yet my data is showing that it is not. The data that @MN Brian provided from 2016 to 2025 at first blush seems to indicate the same as the 2026 data that I compiled by hand. So... the numbers are not matching. The obvious reason why would be talent. Here we are calling up Ggon because he is right handed. Ggon wasn't chosen because he is more talented than Erod. We have a beefy data set in St. Paul that strongly suggests that he is not more talented than Erod. Yet it is because we can't let Larnach face left handed pitching and that train pulled out of the station 4 years ago. If we continue doing this and we seem to be continuing. 4 years from now. Jenkins will need a Grichuk. Erod will need a Grichuk and then you get to the point where you are capping the number of left handed hitters that you can roster and the percentage of arms is still 72% to 28%. It seems to me that the correct way to play the beefy data set would be more players who can attack the 72% but very few consider the disparity betwen 72% and 28%. The 28% alone will mitagate the .600 OPS that with time could become .700 OPS. It's possible that our methods are doing more long term damage than the short term benefit gained.

What is the per AB Value of a .600 OPS compared to a .700 OPS. What is the per game value?

I agree with you and I believe this is another potential cause in what is going wrong with our development. Caratini is going to get multiple shots at it. Younger options will not. Margot got multiple shots at it and he wasn't going to be back the following year. Younger options who could be back the following year would not. They will have to perform... RIGHT NOW... when opportunity first avails itself.

Enjoy yourself. Yosemite is one of the most beautiful spots in the U.S. You should focus on that. This discussion will keep. Just being probably unnecessarily pre-emptive in hope that you lend your input down the line. You are consistently one of the sharper posters on this site. I've read your stuff and I've seen you think outside the box at times. I'll keep my response short and just comment on the third paragraph. The 4th and 5th paragraphs we can discuss when you have more time. To answer your third paragraph. I don't how much rope I would give Larnach. And Larnach is for example purposes. Obviously rope will have been provided. My short answer would be: This is where... I am a strong advocate for sincere competition.

Agree with everything you say. I just can't help but wonder about the actual strength of the "beefy data set" and that makes me wonder about the truth. I recognize the data. The platoon split advantage is real. But when chasing the data... the platoon split data has led to the point of signing lesser players, and right now the Twins could be accused of limiting the number lefthanders. I can't help wonder if they've gone a bit around the bend. I appreciate the discussion.

Thank You... This is wonderful. I really really appreciate it. Ultimately we would need to compare and contrast with the other 29 teams to see how we compare so we can start searching for pluses or minuses. Another thing... and this is my thing and the reason I started the tracking I'm doing... lineup composition is a key component to what I'm trying to determine with the data. For example... We won 50 percent of our games against RH Starters over a 9 year stretch and we averaged 4.80 Runs per game. How many left handed and right handed hitters did we have in the lineup against them. How many left handed and right handed hitters did we have in the lineup against the LH Starters that produced a .477 Winning Percentage and 4.37 Runs per game. I will go back and check roster composition for the corresponding years. Without checking... I can tell you that the Twins have been light on left handed hitters for the past 5 years at least. This could indicate that the .500 winning percentage and the 4.8 Runs Per Game just might support my hypothesis and run directly counter to what the platooning is supposed to accomplish. I'm going to conduct as much research as I can on this when time allows. It will take some time using my slow data entry by hand. If you can get Claude to produce that... I may ask for your hand in marriage. I really really really appreciate what you've done here High Five Fist Bump Thank you to both you and Claude.com You might be my new favorite poster!

It's more of a hypothesis. I'm saying it's quite possible that platooning hurts more than it helps. Never platoon? Nope... never is too strong a word in consideration of the multiple contexts that occur during a given season but I am pretty sure that we shouldn't just take developing players and stuff them into a platoon automatically and we have been stuffing all of our left handed prospects into it automatically. Platoon Less? Yep... I'll take that. There is no team in MLB as locked into the practice as we are. At the very least we can give some ground here. Don't pinch it mid-game? Well... I'm not a fan of the practice especially with one out and nobody on base because you don't have the bench size to readjust to the adjustment. However... Never is too strong of a word. Key moments may arise in the 5th inning where it makes sense. Platoon but not when guys are on a hot streak? I'm suggesting that it's possible that you are robbing them of the opportunity to use the good times to improve the numbers therefore cementing the smaller sample. The data is just data at this point. I've made note of some trends like the start of this thread but I draw no conclusions from it yet. I'm just compiling it and sharing it for those who'd like to take a look. The stat doesn't exist so I'm creating it for the Twins. The data set needs to exist because perhaps all 30 teams... not just the Twins are making ENTIRE starting lineup decisions primarily based on the hand the pitcher throws with. If starting lineups are being set by this single factor... this makes this single factor a huge factor in the results and it needs to be separated from the normal left vs left or left vs right stats that we have access to. These stats not compiled by professionals and not being readily available for the public is an oversight that should be corrected especially in consideration of the billions of data sets already in use. The hand of the pitcher is determining which players are selected to do the BULK of all the offensive, defensive, baserunning and who is available to pinch hit and pinch run. That fact alone should carry much much much more weight than 90% of the available stats.

One more thing. Please don't get frustrated with me. I'm dying for this conversation. I'm ready for this conversation and you are one of the few people on this website capable of fairly having the conversation. And please keep in mind. I am acknowledging that the platoon split advantage is real. It is without question harder for left handed hitters to face left handed pitchers and this is mathematically proven historically and also proven every single season inside the larger historical numbers. I am also acknowledging that if every team adopted what I am suggesting that the platoon split advantage that is already proven could deepen or widen as a result.

We don't even need equal or even reverse splits. A left handed hitter with an OPS of .700 against lefties and a .800 against righties is perfectly fine. .650 and .850 is also fine. The platoon split is real and if an organization is just closing the door right out of the gate it will never produce a Kyle Schwarber or Freddie Freeman and an organization like the Twins will need to produce their own Kyle Schwarber because we can't sign him. You also have to factor how this complete nearly 100% sheltering of prospects is to actually producing eventual expectable numbers. The small sample numbers that we look at are fluid with additional opportunity. As a matter of fact... All numbers, combinations of whatever are fluid and they accumulate over time. Those numbers that we look at are subject to hot and cold streaks. If a left handed batter with a career .600 OPS against left handed pitching is in a hot streak against a right handed hitters because he is seeing the ball good. Wouldn't stand to reason that he could also be in a hot streak against left handed hitting because his swing is feeling good and he is seeing the ball good. With 100% denial of the opportunity of left vs. left. He will never get the benefit of that hot streak to raise his small sample number. In other words... a .600 OPS is not static. It is not what the hitter is every day of his life. There will be times when a .600 OPS is a .700 OPS due to a hot streak and there are times when a .600 OPS is .500 OPS due to a cold streak. If you deny the opportunity to participate out of hand. You are denying him the opportunity to cash in on hot streaks. This will make decent metric measurables harder. The best way to cool down a hot streak is to bench it. Why do I think the Twins are not trying? I answered this in the last post. We haven't let a single developing left handed hitter face left handed pitching on a regular basis. Not one. Our philosophy exceeds all others in this regard. We've closed the door on everyone.

Development is a major part of the issue. It isn't the only issue. Not by a mile. But... in the end development is going to need to be addressed because we ain't got the money to sign the players developed by other teams. Even if we increase pay roll to 180... we won't be able to dismiss the development necessity. The need to sign or call up lesser talent to feed the machine is a major issue. If people can't see the inherent problem with any philosophy that justifies calling up or signing lesser players. It gets really hard to bore through that wood. If you want to platoon Jenkins he will need a dance partner. That dance partner is either going to cost 4 to 5 million dollars for a Margot or worse yet... he is going to sacrifice the career of a prospect like Austin Martin. Or he is going to cause Gabriel Gonzalez to be called up instead of Emmanuel Rodriguez so we can sacrifice the career of Gabriel. 4 Years from now Walker Jenkins trade value will be capped and it will because of decisions being made today. Every left handed hitter that has come through our system has been hidden from left handed pitchers. Every single one. Not a PCA or Corbin Carroll or Ben Rice in the bunch. Not a Daylen Lile in the bunch, a Delauter or Aranda in the bunch. We do have Kody Clemens. He ranks 44th in left handed hitters AB's against left handed pitchers. The Twins have allowed 308 left handed plate appearances against left handed pitchers to occur in 2026. That ranks 26th. with a .624 OPS and that ranks 24th. The Yankees have 968 PA's of left against left. They Rank #1. They have a .716 team OPS and that ranks 8th. The OPS belongs to the Cubs with a .838 team OPS left on left. There are 10 teams in MLB with a team OPS over .700 left against left. Including the extremely young Nationals. What are doing wrong? Injuries ever changing the context is a major issue when you have purposely signed lesser players. You have 13 roster spots. Limiting your roster to 4 left handers is an issue. 4 28% right handed hitters that are required to gaurd the 4 left handers is an issue. Man... you better be right about the 5 (Right Handed) players that require no such shenanigans. Because if they perform like Royce Lewis... the mathed together ball players we are developing will be called on to replace him.