Whammy
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Everything posted by Whammy
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19 Questions for 19 Twins Hitting Prospects in 2025
Whammy replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I went down a little bit of a Eduardo Beltre rabbit hole the other day and decided to look up where the top 5-10 OPS guys in the Dominican Summer League in each season from 2018-2021 are today. Let's just say... it's pretty ugly. Julio Rodriguez in 2018 was the only notable guy and there were a lot of "Status: Released" Fingers crossed that Beltre can buck the trend.- 23 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- eduardo beltre
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19 Questions for 19 Twins Hitting Prospects in 2025
Whammy replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm a math guy so I have a clarifying question on the EV90 stuff... Is EV90 the average of his top 10% of exit velocities, or is it literally the raw exit velocity of his 90th percentile batted ball. (ie. 30th highest velo out of 300 batted balls). -
After digging into it this afternoon a little, it appears that OAA for infielders does take throwing into consideration, but not for outfielders.
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When's the deadline for making a QO? "Alexa, set a reminder for November 19th at 3pm"
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Does OAA take into account throwing out runners? It looks to me it's just dealing with fielding of batted balls.
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On a related note, it's weird to me that both DRS and OAA don't have decimal places (they obviously do, but they aren't shown) Imagine if we reported WAR or WPA in just integers.
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Interesting.... and said a bit more simply.... The Twins only won 1 game all season where they scored less than 3 runs. That's actually pretty amazing.
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Wallner was 0 DRS last season (and -2 for his career), and right in the middle of the pack for players with more than 300 OF innings last season. Trevor Larnach was also 0 DRS I'm not going to tell you he's a GOOD defender, but "atrocious" in inaccurate. Austin Martin, however, WAS atrocious.
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As a lefty with elite velocity and an incredible slider, his ceiling is #1 starter. It's just that the likelihood of that outcome is far less than the other options you listed. Here is my percent chance outcome list: #1 starter - 5% chance #2 starter - 5% chance Other SP - 20% chance Elite RP - 25% chance Useful lefty RP - 15% chance Career wrecked because of injuries - 30% chance.
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Because I was curious, here is a list of all of the Lefty SP in MLB with a Fastball average velocity above 94 MPH. So yeah, I'd do anything possible to keep him as a SP until it becomes abundantly clear his body just can't take it.
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If he makes it through the health gauntlet to August as an innings-limited starting pitcher then I have ZERO interest in having him try something else (relief pitching) for the major league club the last month or two. Why would you take an incredible outcome (a healthy season) and introduce any chance of things going haywire for a relatively limited impact MLB role the last month or so? Not worth it. Take the 2025 win and continue his SP progression in 2026.
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I think you're misremembering the end of the Joey Gallo era. Farmer played very little until the end of the season and was actually pretty good then Margot... wasn't good and kept playing. So that applies
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Those three had zero value at the trade deadline. They moved Nelson Cruz at the deadline because he had value.
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I think most of us are really excited for the eventual arrival of Emma, but he has 197 career plate appearances above high A. None of us would be shocked if he's trying to knock down the door into the majors this year, but it is FAR FAR FAR more likely that he's just not ready for the majors yet
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I also always feel like I should say... I like Falvey and I think he's a good GM/Whatever his new title is. But if you're a new owner and 2024 happened, then you miss the playoffs in 2025, it seems like you'd sack the top dude.
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Every time this topic comes up I like to mention that Falvey's motivations might not align with typical Twins Fans' motivations (mix of current success and future outlook) If I was a betting man, anything less than the playoff this year and new ownership will not retain Falvey. He's not a "sell the farm" kind of guy but if he can make a big improvement to 2025 (Cease would be that) for a package that might hurt a little, but is probably fair, then I wouldn't be surprised if he did it.
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Not sure what it was back then, but it's more than that now. Time to have some fun with 99th percentile projections
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A couple years ago I really dug into the individual players numbers. Every other number they publish (I think it was 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentile, at the time) is far more interesting than the 50th percentile projection.
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Quick question about DRA- League-wide, by definition, the average is 100, but what is the historic and recent breakdown of SP vs RP? My gut tells me that the average for a RP would be something like 98 and a SP something like 102, but I also don't know how some RP blowups (or positional players pitching) might sway those numbers closer to 100/100
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The "Kansas City 70 Wins" number that keeps getting bandied about was someone saying their 2024 projection, not 2025 (which PECOTA has at 81)
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Zebby and Festa are both 24 at the moment, but turn 25 before July 1 (SWR turns 25 in September). Julien, Royce, and Martin are all 25 right now. It not like they’re an old team. In 2024 they were around the 10th youngest, depending on how you track that, and our 3 oldest players on last years roster (Santana, Farmer, and Thielbar) are gone.
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I’d bump SWR up to 5. I like Keaschall as a prospect, but Sim has done it in the majors, for basically an entire year. Like if you were making a trade with another team, and said “choose between these two,” I feel like more teams would take SWR, but I could be wrong. Maybe I’d flip flop Lee and Rodriguez Hard to quibble much with the rest.
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- walker jenkins
- luke keaschall
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It's not a perfect comparison, but this feels like the Varland situation from last year, a little to me. With the main difference being the length of success Sands has had in the Major League Bullpen (1+ years) compared to Varland being more like half a season by the start of 2024. The Twins, it seems, wanted to just make sure that Varland as a starter was no longer viable at the beginning of 2024, giving him a rotation spot to start the year and then keeping him stretched out when he went back to AAA, before finally realizing (I think) that Varland is better suited as a reliever. Like I said, the situations are a little different, but I could see the 2025 Twins wanting to just make sure that Cole Sands as a starter is no longer viable.
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Just a random thought since deferrals came up.... The Twins could theoretically make their free agent offers (assuming they start doing those again eventually) more appealing with some deferrals. It's a way to avoid tax obligations if the player sets up their permanent residence in a low/no tax state prior to the deferred payments starting to roll in. I think state taxes get a LITTLE overblown, but it's certainly a big deal to some people.
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The most likely reason why this would happen is because Falvey can’t feel super secure about his job, with new ownership coming in. The Twins underperforming in 2025 could very easily mean the end of Falvey’s tenure. While I support the idea of trading for Cease (or King), job security isn’t really the best reason to make a big move, though it certainly can be a big motivator.
