Seansy

With the recent changes in the offseason here's my updated look at how the Twins can fill out their team while keeping to a 10% payroll cut. I tinkered with the numbers a bit (raising SP amounts, lowered Rogers figure, manually entered Gyorko) based off of what Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors put forth on contracts and arbitration. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o_RbVgIjFQ3oNfyy4uqecJONescFSiJ4WuSR1XJkm5c/edit?usp=sharing

I like the idea behind it but Bauer seems more likely to take a long term deal as the best FA SP in the market this year. Unless the Pohlads say "F it, we're tired of not ever winning a playoff game. Go get him." he will likely sign elsewhere but it's fun to imagine and dream on the unlikely scenarios...

I agree with your overview. I think the biggest thing the Twins need to do is find the good value moves they have had recently like Thielbar, Wisler, Dobnak, etc to help with filling out the rotation and BP so they can keep Cruz for 1 year. If Cruz gets a 2 year deal somewhere else (like the White Sox) you let him walk and they can replace his bat with someone like Brantley or maybe Grossman. The market seems like it will be really depressed given all of the options being declined so I think the cost to acquire interesting bounce back candidates like Kluber or undervalued guys like Smyley and Clippard will go a long way to filling out the roster as the team waits for their top prospects to matriculate through the system. Outside of bringing back Clippard and tendering Rogers I don't think the Twins need to spend a lot of money on the BP like a lot of other teams. Outside of spending big on a bat like Cruz the other big issue for me is getting a quality "10th" man to cover for Polanco and Donaldson given their injury history like Iglesias or Hernandez. I would spend most of my FA money on those two roster spots, Clippard, and a couple interesting bounceback/undervalued guys not on this year's team.

Anthony Bass and Justin Wilson for RP targets? I really like Smiley as an under the radar target.

Given Littel has an option remaining I'd hope they keep him on the 40 man if for no other reason to see if he can rediscover his form from 2019 at AAA.

Lopez and Hernandez don't seem like good targets unless you're willing to give up alot because they have 4 years of team control left AND broke out this year. Since Urena only has 1 year of arb left and Yamamoto has multiple years of team control but was awful last year and neither figures into their rotation plans for 2021 both of these players would be better targets for the Twins imo. Rosie + a C prospect for Urena is a solid opening offer if Rosie for Jon Gray doesn't happen. I'm not sure what the Marlins would want for Yamamoto but if his last option was used in 2020 (per FG) he could be a good option as a cheap 5th starter if they think they can improve his mechanics/pitch mix since the Marlins can't stash him in the minors.

I voted to keep him on the 40 man roster. He still has 1 option left so you see if he can bounceback and fix his issues next year so he can be a cheap, useful, middle reliever for the team going forward. He's also still plenty young too!

Here is what I got: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Prp6k25-99NVzLPsttNf2rLyRySGdR-OQ56w_RzoB14/edit#gid=0 I like Gausman and Smyly a lot at the projected prices provided in the spreadsheet. I think they provide the best value for SP at those prices. For DH I think Brantley is a great alternative if Cruz doesn't come back as he can spell players at the corner OF and is younger and possibly cheaper. For LF you could have Rooker/Cave platoon until Kiriloff is down at AAA for a couple months playing LF full time to be ready to play there long term. Brandon Warne's suggestion to trade Rosario for Jon Gray from CO could take the 5th spot in the rotation as well. If I'm going over budget anywhere it is to upgrade utility for someone better than Adrianza/Blankenhorn. Smeltzer is the long reliever at the 8th spot in the BP. Clippard is my top target for the BP given his track record, how good he was last year, and his low cost. Great value. May and Rogers are interchangeable but if we can find a decent trade option for Rogers so we can sign May that would ideal.

I like the idea behind targeting a pitcher like Stephenson in a trade with another team but as spycake notes it won't come from a team that is looking to contend like the Reds. Regarding the options for FA I like resigning Clippard a lot given his low cost and track record of success. May will likely be outside of our price range given the likely reduction in payroll next year but if that depresses the market enough he could potentially be viable to bring back. I think Andrew Chafin might be a good bounceback candidate that shouldn't cost more than 2-3 million tops. Justin Wilson and Anthony Bass are other good options to look at and potentially target as well.

I like Brandon Warne's idea of swapping Rosie for Gray. Pretty fair trade idea since they are both nontender candidates. He could take the 5th spot if we sign Odo or Gausman as our 4th starter.

Here's my rough offseason outline: I think Rosie is either tendered and later traded or is non tendered. Either Rosie or Cave/Rooker(Pillar?) platoon will hold down LF until Alex is used to playing exclusively LF in AAA for a couple of months. He gets called up after that and hopefully takes over there for the next 7 years. I would also be interested in signing Kevin Pillar as Buxton insurance given Buxton's injury history. For utility it will probably be either Gordon or an outside FA. I'm done with Marwin and Ehire. Maybe Blankenhorn could reprise Marwin's super utility role? More bat first than defense obviously. I want them to sign 2 starting pitchers and have Dobnak as the 6th starter in Rochester in case of injury. Odo and Hill are fine to bring back on 1 year deals. If Bauer truly wants a 1 year deal he would be my top FA target besides Cruz. If we have to sign Cruz for 2 years to keep him I would do it. He's so integral to the lineup and the clubhouse. Obviously prefer to keep it to 1 year with maybe a vesting option or a highish buyout on the option but we need to keep him. I count 6 BP arms we can count on in Rogers (move him off closer and use him mostly against LHB), Duffey, Thielbar, Wisler, Stashak, and Alcala. Assuming we go back to a 26 man roster next year that leave's two spots open. I think May will sign a multiyear deal elsewhere for as much money as he can get. Biggest FA contract to a reliever Falvine gave out was 2 years to Addison Reed and with the question marks on revenue for next year I doubt they will meet May's asking price. Signing relievers to long term deals rarely work out and the Twins keep finding guys for cheap from all sorts of places that the money can be better spent elsewhere. Hopefully they can bring back Clippard. Romo's option should be declined but they can try to bring him back for less if he's interested. Otherwise they have 2 spots to fill for either Clippard/Romo or different FAs. Chalmers and Colina need more time to develop in the minors but they will be the next wave of young BP arms to join as injuries inevitably hit. Finally with Jeffers I would start him at AAA and sign a back up C for Garver to start. If Garver continues to struggle offensively for a prolonged period or gets injured again Jeffers is ready to step back in to catch full time. Garver has 2 options remaining so if he struggles offensively again he can go down to AAA to try to get himself right. As you can see, outside of possibly LF and back up IF I don't have any of the Twins' young players with the team to start the year but I expect with injuries that most of them will inevitably get called up during the year. If you start the year with all the young players on the opening day roster and they struggle or get injured there is no depth to fall back on because they are already up with the team! That's my view at least.

I think Rosie is either tendered and later traded or is non tendered. Either Rosie or Cave/Rooker platoon will hold down LF until Alex is used to playing exclusively LF in AAA for a couple of months. For utility it will probably be either Gordon or an outside FA. I'm done with Marwin and Ehire. I want them to sign 2 starting pitchers and have Dobnak as the 6th starter in Rochester in case of injury. Odo and Hill are fine to bring back on 1 year deals. If Bauer truly wants a 1 year deal he would be my top FA target besides Cruz. Don't forget Thielbar for the 6th spot in our 8 man BP! I think May will sign a multiyear deal elsewhere for as much money as he can get. Biggest FA contract to a reliever they gave was 2 years to Addison Reed and with the question marks on revenue for next year I doubt they will meet May's asking price. Hopefully they can bring back Clippard. Romo's option should be declined but they can try to bring him back for less if he's interested. Otherwise they have 2 spots to fill for either Clippard/Romo, different FAs, or internally with Chalmers/Colina.

It is really frustrating as a fan to hear about injury issues after their season ends rather than during the lead up to the postseason. It ends up just sounding like excuses when we know that's not the case. Is Rocco's habit of saying NOTHING about injuries some kind of competitive advantage thing or is he just a big Belichek wannabe? We knew about Buxton's concussion and shoulder but now he has some unexplained issue that they won't elaborate on? We knew about Kepler being injured previously but it was still bothering him? He also was banged up at the end of the year last year too. Same thing for Garver. Polanco's ankle was a problem that was never mentioned until the end of the year TWICE! Last year and this year again. At this point we have to wonder if ANY of our core players will ever enter the playoffs healthy enough to produce. How F'ed up is that??? I never even knew Arraez had a history of knee issues for so long so I appreciate the info.

The fact we have 9 playoff caliber relievers in our bullpen is pretty insane considering how bad our bullpen had been over the last decade or so. I would slide Rogers down to 5th or 6th and try to save him and Thielbar to use against LHB. Romo in the 9th. The rest are fungible.

A healthy Yankees team is better than the White Sox, Rays, or As. I would rather play the worse team, regardless of the history.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/ 9 of the current top 30 twins prospects on MLB.com were acquired by the previous regime. When you consider how long it typically takes a player to develop in the minor leagues that they have been able to keep supplementing the big league roster with talent and develop another wave of talent to follow so quickly speaks well to the farm system development over the last few years. It's not just the development of players in the minors but also how they keep improving once they reach The Show that determines the quality of a MLB organization. Just look at Shane Bieber's growth this year and all of their other pitchers over there in Cleveland that we are starting to develop here in Minnesota now. The whole reason they brought Falvey over from Cleveland was because of how he helped them develop their pitchers. So far so good with Canterino, Balazovic, Enlow, Duran all looking very promising and all the other relief pitchers and starting pitchers that have/are coming up in the system. When you factor in the explosive growth in the Twins' offense and pitching last year and now their defensive improvements this year when they were able to put in place the coaching staff they wanted as opposed to inherited it is mind boggling to me that people don't realize how lucky we are to have them leading the organization. For some examples to remind everyone: Duffey and Littel became relief aces last year when our pitching coach (more like pitching whisperer) Wes Johnson advised them on things to work on when they went down to Rochester. This year Thielbar and Wisler have become two more set up quality pitchers that Falvine got off waivers and near retirement for Wes to work with. Maeda has gone from a very good pitcher to an actual capital A - Ace pitcher after they changed his pitch mix. Dobnak was an undrafted free agent that has a 60+ GB% and his slider has become a real weapon this year. Cody has illustrated well with his examples how well Falvine have done with the early returns from their drafts and trades so far. I've never been more excited as a Twins fan regarding the direction of the organization. Cheers!

Given Kiriloff and Larnach haven't played at all in AAA I would start them there next year and the player that does the best out of the gate gets called up to replace Jake Cave in LF sometime in 2021. If the FO doesn't want to do that try to trade him to a NL WC team like the Marlins or non AL central WC team at the trade deadline that needs a corner OF for whatever they can get. No sense messing with things this year though. There is no guarantee the prospects light the world on fire in 1 week this year when playoff rosters get locked on September 15th. Best case is Rosie or maybe Rooker gets hot in the playoffs.

They have proven themselves to be reliable set up quality relivers imo. Wisler gave up two solo shots for his 2 ER. Thielbar gave up his ERs in his 3rd IP. If Wisler cuts down the walks better he will be a major weapon with that slider of his. How long have Twins fans been desperate for a good second LHP after Rogers? This FO went "dumpster diving" and struck gold twice again this year after doing so last year as well. Oh yeah, this is Wisler's first year of Arb and Caleb's 2nd prearb year this year so they will be around relatively cheaply for quite a while too

You called it right early

With Mookie moved to the NL only Judge really stands in his way as the most notable opponent for a GG. Given Judge's health history I think Max has a good shot at it!

The more the merrier!

*The May and Odo extensions include this season.

If we could keep May, Odo, and Cruz on reasonable extensions I would. Maybe add a team option to Cruz's contract with a 1-2 million buyout for next year. Ideally it would be 2-3 years for May and 3-4 years for Odo depending on how negotiations go. The biggest thing for me is if what I have read about Odo being open to an extension are true AND he added another 1-2 mph again on his fastball than the Twins should be working HARD to extend Odo IMO. Obviously Buxton and Berrios should be extended if possible too but otherwise I think those 5 are probably the most likely/most promising extension candidates.

I think the difference between catcher and right field for Houston versus the Twins and Yankees edges them down to 3rd place for me. 1) NYY 2) Twins 3) Asterisks

The reason Romero was moved to the BP and is unlikely to ever move back is because he doesn't have a quality third pitch. Unless you are Rich Hill with his insane CB and good command virtually all SP have at least 3 usable pitches. Typically that is a fastball, some kind of breaking ball, and a changeup. Since Romero does not have a usable changeup they moved him to the BP. Could he theoretically develop one still? Yeah, but given how long they've tried to so far that's a pipe dream. That's why Graterol could still (and should) transition to a starter in the future. In addition to his FB, and SL, he also has roughly major league average changeup to use against left handed batters.