Cody Pirkl

I think it's easy to underrate how valuable Arraez is just because he is mostly one dimension. Regardless of how he gets it done he was roughly on a 3.5 win pace in '19, and '20. He probably won't eclipse that level of value because of his defense but it's hard to find a prospect of any pedigree to expect that from, especially in their first 2 seasons.

I agree that it'd have to be a haul with at least a top 100 prospect but I disagree that nobody would be willing to pay it. Arraez is a valuable player with a very unique skill set offensively. The only reason I think the Twins would even consider trading him is because they have a superior defensive 2B and plenty of corner options. Team could easily see him as a starting caliber 2B who can lead off everyday. That's absolutely worth a haul of prospects.

FWIW I don't necessarily think they should deal Arraez either. To deal Polanco would be super surprising though. They clearly don't think of Arraez as an everyday 2B otherwise Polanco would have been the one moved into a utility role because he could at least fill in at short. He's been good at 2B and rebounded at the plate. Could they get a haul for him? Probably. It'd cost them a player they already committed to and has the keys to an everyday position though which is more than we can say about Arraez.

Selling at the trade deadline is very likely at this point as all eyes turn to the Twins front office to see how they’ll handle sell offs. People are understandably nervous to deal Berrios and Buxton, but there may be a surprising controllable piece that could be explored. Luis Arraez has been found money for the Twins system. While a solid prospect, his debut season posting a .334/.399/.439 slash line was not expected by any means. He probably takes the highest quality at bats on the team and has fantastic bat to ball skills that should always buoy a solid batting average. So why would the Twins look to trade him? https://twitter.com/CoopCarlson/status/1223675817470898176 Utilityman? Arraez essentially has no primary position at this point after Polanco took over second base. He’ll still make the occasional appearance in the middle infield but often finds himself in the corner outfield or filling in for an injured Donaldson at the hot corner. His shift off the position he played his entire minor league career has gone as well as we could have expected, although usually we don’t expect much in this scenario. Arraez is slightly below average across the board defensively. His flexibility on the diamond is valuable, though not as valuable as it could be. There’s no situation where the Twins would feel the least bit comfortable with dropping Arraez in at shortstop or center field which are two of the most valuable positions to be able to play. Corner spots are typically where you hide rough defenders and you can often find passable backups. It’s very likely somebody like Nick Gordon is nowhere near the offensive contributor that Arraez is, but his defensive range and what looks to be at least a solid bat could very well close the gap on Arraez as a future utilityman in the Twins eyes. Injury History It’s probably not crazy to say that Arraez’ defensive struggles have at least something to do with his injury history. At 24 years of age Arraez has had knee problems on both sides, one being a torn ACL and the other being tendonitis that hampered him significantly throughout 2020. Even after the issue had supposedly been resolved we still see Arraez run the bases gingerly on occasion while appearing to nurse an aching lower half. Knee injuries can often result in a brutal aging curve unfortunately, and there’s worries that a 24 year old Luis Arraez is already suffering from chronic issues. As he ages further we could see decline not only defensively, but offensively. He may be able to maintain his bat to ball skills and terrific plate discipline, but as we’ve seen this season in his .351 slugging %, if his power completely evaporates as it could with leg injuries then his value at the plate could really fall off. Arraez is due to become a free agent in 2026. Is it possible that his value could be at its peak? Should We Trade Him? As with most productive controllable players, whether we should trade Luis Arraez doesn’t have a simple yes or no answer. He’s an incredibly valuable player, and likely more valuable as a player on the Twins than a trade chip at this point due to his injuries and overall struggles this season. Still, Polanco has settled into second base nicely and appears to have rebounded at the plate. The next wave of outfielders are here with more on the way. While he would be a great stop gap for Donaldson’s IL trips, he’s probably not an everyday third baseman. Especially if he rebounds at the plate and shows he’s healthy over the next month, a contender could justify paying up for the 24 year old who’s controlled for four more years if they see him as an everyday starter. The Twins lineup would certainly miss him but he’s a player they could likely afford to lose more than Taylor Rogers or Jose Berrios while still getting a nice return that could help rebound in 2022. Arraez has become a quiet star and is surely one of my favorite players, but when teams crumble as the 2021 Twins have, all options have to be considered. Could Luis Arraez be the big move the Twins make to try to rebound from a surprisingly disappointing season? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

On February 4th of this year the Twins made a relatively minor trade, cashing in some of their fringe outfield depth in LaMonte Wade Jr. for an arm they had identified as having potential in Shaun Anderson from the Giants. It couldn’t have gone more poorly. LaMonte Wade Jr. was an easy player to like. He slowly worked his way up through the minors over five years using his patient plate approach and solid outfield defense and found himself on the back end of a deep outfield rotation in 2019 and 2020. Nobody expected Wade to be a star player, but he seemed like the kind of solid contributor that fills out the edges of a competitive roster. He slashed .211/.336/.388 in a Twins uniform, played decent defense in the outfield, and even filled in at first base on occasion. It basically came down to a battle between Wade and Jake Cave for a roster spot last winter. To Cave’s and the Twins credit, he was fantastic, especially against righties prior to his disastrous 2020 season in which he was 18% below league average offensively. Cave’s prior play ultimately won him the roster spot as the Twins rightfully were planning on a rebound. Wade was eventually shipped to San Francisco for a high upside arm in Shaun Anderson. Now I like Shaun Anderson despite his struggles in a Twins uniform and I liked the trade at the time. He’s a high octane righty with a nasty slider that he struggles to locate. Plenty of adjustments that can be made. Unfortunately Anderson never figured it out in his brief time with the Twins, as he was claimed off waivers by Texas after posting a 9.35 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 8.2 innings. Meanwhile LaMonte Wade Jr. is slashing .257/.350/.443 with the Giants. No explanation is needed on Jake Cave’s performance. This wasn’t a noteworthy outcome in a vacuum, mistakes happen. I find it significant for two reasons however. First of all, this move symbolizes the entire offseason in my eyes. Was it an exciting move? No. You could make out what the Twins were trying to do however and it didn’t take much to get excited over someone they handpicked that was so under the radar. The same could be said for the signings of Robles, Happ, Shoemaker, Simmons and Colomé. Much like all of these but Robles however, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the outcome could’ve been worse. Second, for whatever reason for all of the mistakes that were made this offseason, Shaun Anderson (who has minor league options and is 26 years old) is the first addition the front office has admitted failure on by placing him on waivers. Meanwhile J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alexander Colomé continue to “eat innings” with absolutely zero chance of having any future on this team beyond 2021. It’s simply baffling. This move didn’t change the course of the Twins success in 2021, but it’s incredibly frustrating because it embodies the offseason perfectly. The majority of this winters acquisitions were sensible at the time but look absolutely horrible in retrospect as pretty much anything that could have gone wrong did. The result of such a string of lame duck acquisitions leaves Twins fans’ faith wavering, as all of the good will built up throughout 2019 and 2020 was undone in one fell swoop of atrocious pitching additions. The Twins will enter the 2021 offseason with ample money to spend and plenty of holes to fill. Can so many disastrous moves be chalked up to bad luck? Can Twins fans feel good about an upcoming offseason of acquisitions that will surely be relied upon to get back on track in 2022? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

This winter the Twins showed their faith in Randy Dobnak by giving him a 5 year $9.5m extension. It was an unexpected move but a welcome one after the sinkerballer had been so successful in his first two years. Things have not gone according to plan since then however. No player in baseball is immune to the league adjusting and Dobnak has proven to be no different. After posting a 1.59 ERA through 28.1 innings in his debut season, Dobnak took a bit of a tumble in 2020. He started out just as hot but eventually was optioned and finished the season with a 4.05 ERA. The league really appeared to finally figure him out as he tallied a 6.41 mark in his last 6 appearances. Since then the numbers speak for themselves. Through 36 innings this year Dobnak owns a 7.36 ERA and 7.95 FIP. He’s been worth -.4 fWAR, often allowing blowup performances that take the Twins out of the game before they even have a chance. So what happened to Randy Dobnak? Walks Will Haunt Dobnak by no means has what would be considered a walk problem by league standards. Unfortunately the bar is much higher for a pitcher with Dobnak’s skillset. In his rookie season he had a respectable 19.5% K rate and an incredible 4.2% walk rate. Unfortunately his K rate has dropped by over 6% over the last two seasons lowering his margin for error. It may not seem like much of a change, but his increase to a 6.5% walk rate since his rookie season means the tightrope Dobnak walks gets a little bit thinner. We’ve seen the “bad luck” starts from Dobnak in the past where seemingly every batted ball finds a hole. With little strikeout ability to fall back on, Dobnak relies too much on batted ball luck to really issue any free passes at all. Asking for no walks at all is a tall order, which is why the more obvious solution would be to try to increase whiffs. The Slipping Slider Dobnak and the Twins appear well aware of his dilemma which is why so much was made of his new slider grip this spring. Dobnak looked like a completely different pitcher in Spring Training by generating tons of swings and misses with the new pitch, but unfortunately those gains appear to have been short lived. Dobnak’s attempt to adjust to the league has simply turned out to be a disaster. To be fair the new slider has drawn a 4% increase in whiff rate thus far, but it’s hard to argue against the fact that the pitch is worse in pretty much every other measurable way. The path to consistent success was tough enough as a contact oriented control artist who leans heavily on two pitches. Without the slider it’s hard to see a light at the end of these struggles. So where can he go from here? These issues Dobnak has had obviously run deeper than this shallow explanation but it’ll be interesting to see what he can do to adjust. Perhaps the first step is a return to the slider that worked so well for him in his first year and a half. It was a bit surprising that the initial adjustment Dobnak made wasn’t a new pitch to add to his repertoire such as a cutter, perhaps something like this could still be in the cards for the right handed sinkerballer. One thing is for certain, Dobnak has a lot of work to do to restore faith in him as even a reliable back of the rotation starter for 2022. The Twins didn’t invest much into this extension but it certainly does run the risk of becoming a sunken cost if Dobnak can’t right the ship. Much like the Twins as a whole this year, Randy Dobnak is dealing with significant adversity. Can he overcome it? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The time has come for the Twins to begin prioritizing their younger players over the struggling one year veterans they brought in. Three prospects in particular are in need of some playing time to see where they stand for 2022. Bailey Ober Ober has surpassed Lewis Thorpe as a possible back of the rotation option for 2022 in my eyes. He’s dominated the Minors at every stop including AAA this year where he’s posted a 2.81 ERA and 20% K rate. He doesn’t have ace level stuff but he does have a high spin fastball that appears to play up higher than the 90-92 you see on the radar gun, and his control has been nothing short of impeccable. Ober has gotten just the one start for the Twins so far, but that should change. Happ and Shoemaker are arguably not even eating innings at this point and Ober could emerge as a back of the rotation arm for next season which would be incredibly valuable. The 6 foot 9 righty doesn’t have much left to prove in the Minor Leagues. It’s time for the Twins to see what they have. Nick Gordon Gordon’s main issue the last few years has been health, as he’s flashed his first round upside whenever he’s been able to stay on the field. Gordon absolutely dominated AAA slashing .393/.469/.571 and it appears there just isn’t much more for him to prove there. In the Majors he’s been far from overmatched, as he’s been 73% better than a league average hitter according to wRC+ Gordon’s staying power is a bit murkier, as he’s essentially up due to an injury to Arraez. The Twins are sure to find a team in need of a boost on defense to take Andrelton Simmons at the deadline however which would open a spot for Gordon for the rest of the season. The Twins have also discussed working on Gordon becoming more familiar with the outfield which would make him a much more valuable player. At 25 years old, Nick Gordon should finally get a chance to make good on his first round selection. Brent Rooker Rooker looked like a revelation when he was brought up in 2020 slashing .316/.381/.579 before a broken forearm on a hit by pitch derailed his and the Twins plans. He was quickly brought up in 2021 after failing to make the Opening Day roster but struggled to find his stride, slashing .103/.133/.241 with a 43.3% K rate. Rooker’s approach at the plate makes him a streaky hitter but his offensive profile makes him arguably the best pure power hitter in the Twins system. Rooker has no defensive position you feel good about, but we’re likely watching the last of Nelson Cruz in a Twins uniform this season. At the age of 26, it’s time to see if Rooker can approach anywhere near that magical 2020 debut which would put him in the running to at least mix into the DH spot in 2022. Like it or not, several veterans are likely on their way out in the coming months which creates plenty of opportunity. These three may be the first to get their shot but there are certainly several other young players who will be fighting for a look at the MLB level. Are there any you’re looking forward to? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Agree with all of the above information but I also need to mention some appreciation for Tom and everything he's done to keep the content flowing here at TwinsDaily. He does more behind the scenes than most of us will ever know and is truly just one of the nicest and most helpful dudes you could ask to work with as a new writer. You'll be missed Tom but I'm certainly looking forward to the increase in content!

The Twins are attempting to return to contention in historic fashion after a terrible start to the season. While their recent hot stretch has been propelled by recently struggling players such as Sano, Kepler and Polanco, one of their cornerstones hasn’t been as advertised. After inking Josh Donaldson to a 4 year $92 million contract, the Twins were surely disappointed in him missing 32 games of the 60 game season in 2020, not to mention the playoffs. Confidence crumbled even further when in the first at bat of his 2021 season, Donaldson laced a pitch into the gap only to pull up with a hamstring injury which led to an IL stint. After Donaldson slashed .222/.373/.469 (good for 29% above league average) in his shortened 2020, it appeared all the Twins could do was hope for good health. Since coming off the IL on April 14, Donaldson has had his longest stretch on the field in a Twins uniform. The Twins plans to rest him regularly essentially went out the window as the team struggled to pick up wins. To Donaldson’s credit, he’s avoided another IL trip despite the Twins aggressiveness in keeping him on the field. The Twins have largely gotten what they wanted from their largest free agent signing in franchise history, at least in terms of good health. At the time of writing this, new concerns over the remaining two and a half years left on Donaldson’s contract have exposed themselves. Donaldson has been far from bad at the plate, but it’s worth noting that this slash line of .236/.338/.415 is far from an MVP candidate. His being 10% above league average by wRC+ is buoyed by the fact that offense league wide was significantly suppressed for the first month of the season. Batting average is far from Donaldson’s game, but his .222 in 2020 and current .236 mark are both the lowest of his career going back to his rookie season in 2010. His current .338 OBP is his worst since 2014. His slugging % is his lowest since 2012. In addition to a down offensive year, Donaldson appears to have stepped back significantly on defense. The former Gold Glove caliber third baseman has been worth -3 Defensive Runs Saved, a mark that already matches Donaldson’s career worst. He also falls in the 36th percentile in Outs Above Average on defense. Defensive metrics are a finicky measurement but paired with the eye test, Donaldson appears to have made some major declines in the hot corner. Donaldson hasn’t been the caliber of player the Twins have needed in his age 35 season so far. With two and a half years left under contract, it’s not irrational to wonder if the injuries are finally catching up. That being said, it’s fair to point out that a lot of indicators are still favorable. It’s entirely possible and even likely that Donaldson has gotten unlucky so far. That’s a lot of red to still be putting up at 35 years old. That being said, the Twins are relying on luck or whatever else is going on straightening itself out if they have plans for a shocking resurgence. Can Donaldson return to being the game changing player he was signed to be two winters ago? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Nope, not rotation. He's got a good sample size of not being able to maintain his velo in the rotation now. I just wouldn't be shocked if he flourished in the bullpen.

He looked like a future piece and was a big prospect as recently as 2019 (the last time baseball was normal). He's been a valuable pitcher basically whenever he's been able to get to 91-93 consistently so why not see if he can get there in one inning appearances? I know he's been a disappointment but I'm surprised at how many people want to cut bait without trying everything after watching similar mistakes with guys like Nick Anderson.

He'd have been there if he didn't have that extra option. At this point though I'm not sure they should even go the long relief route. I'm interested to see how his stuff plays up in a traditional one inning relief role. He could turn into a valuable guy in the middle to late innings.

I could write an entire article on why the Twins should look to trade Rogers. He's a proven arm who can pitch in any situation and is left handed. Relievers are volatile. If you can trade 2 expensive years of one for a haul (the Twins probably can) then you absolutely should. Also for as much as they failed this winter to build a bullpen, being this bad this early gives them plenty of time to backfill Rogers spot and find the next high leverage guy headed into next year.

Lewis Thorpe has put up respectable numbers in his few MLB starts so far this season. That being said there is certainly cause for concern in regards to his future in the rotation. It may be time to try something a bit different. It’s hard to really pick at Lewis Thorpe’s performance on the season. In fact, his performance so far isn’t the issue at all. He has a 3.86 ERA and 4.22 FIP which is much better than most of the current rotation. His SIERA, Skill Interactive ERA however tells a much different story. SIERA is more predictive than most ERA indicators and puts Thorpe at a 5.44 mark, over a run and a half higher than his current ERA. If you’ve watched Thorpe’s handful of starts then you know exactly what the issue is. For the 2nd straight season, Thorpe is averaging under 90 mph on the fastball. In fact, Thorpe’s average fastball is actually .2 mph less than his disaster 2020 season. He was averaging a perfectly acceptable 91.2 mph as recently as 2019 where he looked like a future rotation piece. I give Thorpe all the credit in the world for performing as well as he has with what little velocity he’s had to work with. That being said, there are very few starting pitchers who can put up consistent performances with an average fastball under 90 mph. Those that do are arms like Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, etc. All command specialists with devastating offspeed pitches. Thorpe just simply doesn’t fall into that bucket of pitcher. The frustrating thing is that Thorpe possesses the ability to ramp up his fastball somewhere in there. Spring performances don’t mean much, but after an encouraging offseason he looked like a stud as he pumped 92-93 mph. So where has that fastball gone and what can the Twins do? After one of his recent starts, Thorpe mentioned that he’s been struggling with some “dead arm”, a malady all pitchers suffer through where they just don’t have their top notch arm strength. Dead arm however typically lasts a week or two and it’s looking increasingly like Thorpe just doesn’t have a fastball that can run into the low 90s for multiple innings. That’s exactly why the Twins should try Lewis Thorpe in the bullpen. In shorter stints Thorpe’s fastball could easily play up 2-3 mph which isn’t uncommon when starters transition to the bullpen. He has a pitch mix to face hitters from both sides with his slider and changeup, both of which would play off of a fastball with more velocity. Especially now that Thorpe seems to be around the strike zone more, it’s easy to imagine him finding success. It may also give him a more clearcut route to a spot on the MLB roster next year when he’s out of options. In addition to Thorpe’s benefit there are a few other factors to consider. The Twins now have two other starters that can fill that spot start role in Dobnak and Ober. I also think they’ll heavily shop Taylor Rogers on the trade market given the return they could find for him and the near $7m he’s due to make in 2022. The Twins will have an opening for another lefty in the bullpen and Thorpe may be just the guy to fill that role from within. Some may see a move to the bullpen as giving up on Lewis Thorpe. It may be giving up on him as a starter, but it’s incredibly hard to overlook the velocity issues. I personally think it’s giving Thorpe an opportunity. Plenty of openings in the bullpen are coming and the probability of Thorpe sticking there looks to be much higher than the rotation at this point. Not every starting pitching prospect finds themselves toeing the rubber every 5th day at the Major League level but I think Thorpe has a chance to follow a path similar to players such as Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers. The Twins have put themselves in a position where they can try some new things. In regards to Lewis Thorpe, I think it’s time to start experimenting. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins bullpen is certified bad at this point and outside help seems like a long shot. The Twins have been trying a lot of the same arms in relief but the time may be coming soon to try some new names. Here are 3 internal arms that could make a big impact in the bullpen. Shaun Anderson Anderson was acquired by the Twins for LaMonte Wade Jr. this winter because of their excess of fringe outfield types. He has some control and command issues with over 4 BB/9 in his short MLB career but the stuff is there. He posted a 10.5 K/9 in 2020 for San Francisco along with a 3.52 ERA in 15 innings. It seems the Twins are already at the point of giving Anderson some run considering he pitched two innings on Wednesday in Chicago and they have yet to option him again. He gave up four hits and four runs (one earned) but struck out three and only walked one which was encouraging. Anderson obviously already has a 40 man spot and while he has options left, it’s easy to argue that his mid 90s fastball and biting slider are deserving of an extended look with how the rest of the bullpen has performed. He may be sent down in a pinch if the Twins need a fresh arm, but if the Twins let him settle in and find some consistency he could easily pitch himself in some important innings. Yennier Cano Fellow TwinsDaily contributor Steve says all you need to know right here. Cano was signed as an international free agent out of Cuba a few years back and is already 27 years old. He has very limited minor league experience, only throwing 20 2/3 innings so far but he’s been nothing short of dominant out of the bullpen at the AA level. On Wednesday night he even threw an immaculate inning and has allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings on the season with 11 Ks and no walks so far. At 27 years old, Cano is already approaching the prime of his baseball career. He brings a mid 90s fastball with a nasty slider and a splitter to go along with it. As far back as 2019 shortly after he signed there was a question as to whether Cano would shoot up to the MLB squad that very season because of his advanced skills. He quite simply doesn’t have a ton of time to slow cook in the minor leagues and his raw stuff alone may be deserving of a look at this point. Dakota Chalmers Chalmers was acquired from Oakland in the Fernando Rodney trade. The Twins have tried to develop Chalmers as a starter so far despite injury troubles and some control issues (never posted a BB rate below 12.4%). For many pitchers, such a history points to them not being long for the rotation, and plenty of these arms wind up having effective careers in the bullpen. His nasty stuff doesn’t hurt his chances either, as Chalmers has posted a 33%+ K rate in every season since 2017. Chalmers already has a 40 man spot which is important given the turnover the Twins have already had. It may be a longshot for the Twins to fast track a starting pitching prospect to the majors from AA, especially as a reliever. That being said, Chalmers already being on the 40 man makes the move pretty convenient and such a gamble could pay off big for this struggling group. Something clearly has to change with the bullpen and I think these three names offer a good variety of risk/reward for the Twins to gamble on. Are there any names you’d want to see brought up? Will any of these names be enough to fix what’s been an unmitigated disaster? Let us know below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Pretty much any platform involving Twins fans has been a rough place lately, and for good reason. Some weird takes are developing as would be expected, but there’s one that makes no sense. Why is everybody hating on Willians Astudillo? Remember the good old days? 2018 wasn’t the greatest of Twins seasons but a short stocky utilityman debuted late in the season. After slashing .355/.371/.516 the legend of La Tortuga was born. While that magic at the plate didn’t carry into 2019, Astudillo remained a fan favorite not only in Twins territory, but throughout all of baseball. La Tortuga has been a ton of fun, but it’s important to note that he’s more than just an entertaining story. Even though he’s never approached his scorching hot debut again, he’s been right around a league average hitter for his career. He can play all over the field at just about any position except shortstop and center field, though not particularly well. Even for a good team he’s a Major League caliber player, even if that comes with the condition he shouldn’t be playing everyday. Speaking in present day terms, it’s safe to say that Astudillo has been exposed a bit more than we would prefer so far. He’s played in 22 of the Twins 31 games so far which is probably more than a player like Astudillo should see. That being said he’s having his best season since his debut with a slash line of .313/.308/.484, good for a wRC+ of 120. Sure, his plate approach can be frustrating which has led to his OBP hilariously being lower than his batting average (nope that slash line wasn’t a typo), but he’s been 20% above a league average hitter so far this year. Nope, I’m not trying to make the point that Astudillo is a key offensive player on this Twins team. He has however been basically the best bench bat they could have asked for. Has he come up in some big spots and failed miserably? Sure! Nobody likes to see this, but it was never the plan. Astudillo is the same fun Twins player he has been these last few years. In fact, he’s been that player and then some offensively. Look back just one year to see Marwin and Adrianza who were in the same overexposed role and falling flat on their faces. The Astudillo slander has to stop. I’m not saying Twins Territory has to fall back in love with him, but we shouldn’t let our frustrations with the team as a whole boil over into undeserving parties. The team has plenty of problems, Tortuga being overexposed being one of them, but his performance hasn’t been an issue. He may not be spectacular but in a season of disappointments, the blame deserves to be directed elsewhere. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

One certainty this season was supposed to be Cy Young runner up Kenta Maeda leading the rotation. So far however things just haven’t looked quite right, even before his blow up in Oakland on Wednesday. So what’s going on with King Kenta?It’s been pointed out on the broadcast several times since Opening Day how Kenta Maeda just hasn’t looked “sharp”. He was certainly effective leading up to one of his worst starts of his career against Oakland while sporting a 3.07 ERA and 3.02 FIP paired with a near 10 K/9. That being said he just never really appeared to get on a dominant roll like we saw so many times in 2020. After seven earned runs in three innings, Maeda’s line tells the story of a different pitcher. His ERA rose to 6.11 with a 5.29 FIP and even xERA, his most positive indicator comes out to a 4.47. All of these indicators are far from what we expected to see this season. It’s easy to blame one bad start for Maeda’s inflated stats but there are serious concerns in this young season for perhaps the most important pitcher on this struggling Twins roster. Shaky Command: As we know, Maeda isn’t succeeding by way of the 95 mph fastball. In 2020 he used pinpoint command of his pitches to place them exactly where he wanted to pick batters apart. That does not appear to be the case so far in 2021 however. His command of the strike zone appears to be failing him, as his pitches left over the heart of the plate has increased to 28% after posting a 23.9% mark in 2020. Unsurprisingly, hitters are batting .486 and slugging .886 off of these mistakes Maeda has made more often so far this year. He simply can’t afford to leave so many pitchers in a hitter’s wheelhouse with a 90-91 mph fastball. It would be different if his offspeed pitches were as otherworldly as they were in 2020, but unfortunately… The Slider: Maeda’s nasty slider and the Twins were a match made in heaven from the day they acquired him from the Dodgers. In 2019, FanGraphs gave the pitch a pitch value of 19.8, one of the best in all of baseball. In 2020 the pitch fell off tremendously to 6.7 but was still plenty for Maeda to dominate opposing hitters. So far in 2021 the pitch has a pitch value -5.1. Maeda’s signature pitch has gone from his calling card to allowing a .382 batting average and .735 slugging %. So what happened? It appears it all comes back to command for Maeda. He’s throwing his swing and miss pitch right down the middle as often as anyone in all of baseball. The end result is still a consistent whiff rate of almost 33% so far, but when contact is made, it’s loud. The league could have easily just scouted this flaw out after a year which would give a huge edge even to teams that didn’t see him in person in 2020. The Change Up: It’s possible many fans made the assumption that Maeda’s breakout was a result of the Twins overhauling his slider in 2020 but that wasn’t the case. Instead it was the best performance Maeda’s split change has had in his career. In 2020 the pitch had a career high value of 7.1, even higher than his slider. So far this year however the pitch has turned in a -1 rating and Maeda has dropped his usage of the dominant pitch from almost 30% to around 21%. What gives? For starters it’s worth noting that 2020 was the first year Maeda truly featured the pitch and baseball could have adjusted. This may be the reason the pitch has gone from a 45% whiff rate in 2020 to a 23.5% mark so far in 2021. That being said, the .300 BA allowed isn’t backed up by the .234 xBA on the pitch, nor is the .400 slugging % mirrored by the .305 xSLG. It’s also worth noting that both his vertical and horizontal break on the pitch have improved from 2020 levels so far. The change up’s struggles could be a result of sequencing given the failures of his slider or it could just be bad luck. Either way, it’d be nice to see Maeda bump the usage of the pitch back up. So where do we go from here? It’s probably likely Maeda isn’t the same pitcher over 162 as he was over 60 but the version we’ve seen so far has been a big disappointment. Maeda had the look of his 2020 self to begin Spring Training which should be reassuring that his dominance didn’t simply disappear at the turn of the year. There are adjustments for the 33 year old right hander to make. For all of the issues pitchers run into in their mid 30s, command would be a surprising one to drag Maeda down long term. For now it appears Maeda may just be missing some feel or possibly has a small tweak to make. I’d bet on Maeda righting the ship in the near future and returning to some form of dominance. Afterall, something has to go the Twins way sometime right? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article