Matt Braun

Like the previous Gary Sánchez article, inspiration struck while I was writing the recent Minor League Week in Review piece. While skimming stats, I noticed that Matt Wallner had eight steals on the year. Wallner? Eight steals? Wasn’t he a big, lethargic slugger? Something seems afoot. I took a quick dive, and as it turns out, some interesting steal-related movements are occurring in the Twins’ minor league system. Let’s look at his team specifically: the Wichita Wind Surge. Currently, they sit as the 3rd most steal-happy team in their division, the Texas League. The two most effective culprits are Austin Martin and DaShawn Keirsey, as Martin has 22 bags swiped under his name, and Kiersey has 18. Michael Helman has also broken double digits—without being caught as well—but no other player stands out like Martin and Kiersey. Instead, the team offers a democratic approach, with only one player, Catcher Alex Isola, lacking a successful steal so far this season. For Martin, his stealing acumen appears to be a new or at least unreleased skill. He had a comparatively low 14 steals last year, holds a 50 FV grade in “Run” according to Fangraphs, and the only mention I can find about his speed on Fangraphs’ scouting reports is Eric Longenhagen calling it “solid.” Although, Jeffrey Paternostro at Baseball Prospectus noted that he “was aggressive on the basepaths” in college. Perhaps the Twins wanted to unleash a wild baserunner otherwise limited by the Blue Jays. Wichita isn’t the only team running mayhem on the base paths. The Fort Myers Mighty Mussels are also 3rd in their division in burglary. Mikey Perez alone has gotten away with an otherworldly 24 steals—a total that defines him as the 19th most prolific stealer in Minor League Baseball. Noah Miller, Jake Rucker, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Daniel Ozoria join Perez as double-digit swipers; like Wichita, their catchers, Kyle Schmidt and Dillon Tatum, are the only regular players without a steal. Slight tangent: Mikey Perez is an enigma. I’ve been writing about his great play all year, but I can barely find any information on him. No one at Fangraphs has written anything him; Baseball Prospectus is equally silent. The only articles/mentions/smoke signals/morse code orders/messages from a bottle I can find about him come from an MLB. com article from last year and the three sentences that make up his Perfect Game scouting report. How is a player so good at stealing? I want to know! One big question remains: why more steals? The stolen base and its adjacent scrappy playstyle have taken a back seat to power since the Kansas City Royals lost their credibility following their World Series victory. Guess who the league leader in steals is; do you know? It’s Julio Rodriguez, but only Mariners fans and other niche hipster baseball dorks aggressively celebrate it. Once teams realized that hitting the ball over the fence ensures a run on the board, speed fell quickly out of favor as MLB’s metagame moved towards homers. But the steal may return soon. Proposed rule changes like bigger bases, a limit on pickoffs, and the seemingly inevitable pitch clock all at least implicitly support a rejuvenated stolen-base metagame. One of my followers pointed out that the pitch clock can work as a countdown for the baserunner as well; they can take off at the precise moment the pitcher must throw the ball. Anyways, it’s unclear whether this is an affiliate-at-large movement. The Cedar Rapids Kernels are 9th in their 12-team division, while the St. Paul Saints are 14th out of 20 teams. This swiped bags movement could be a serendipitous meeting of a few steal-happy players collaborating to annoy catchers in an otherwise neutral team philosophy; little stands out in the stats to say otherwise. Still, the franchise has a handful of successful stealers moving through their system, and their playstyle could add a dynamic wrinkle to a homogenous power-focused offense. View full article

You all thought there were going to lose, didn't you? Box Score Starting Pitcher: Devin Smeltzer 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Nick Gordon (2) Top 3 WPA: Devin Smeltzer (.359), Jhoan Duran (.188), Joe Smith (.094) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Devin Smeltzer faced off against seatbelt-enthusiast Zach Plesac in the final game of the series against the Cleveland Guardians. It was a beautiful day game; people around the country celebrated the 50th anniversary of Title IX, while Twins fans looked to celebrate a victory after pulling defeat from the jaws of victory on Monday and Tuesday. The first few innings breezed by before Nick Gordon blasted a hanging curveball deep into center field for his second homer of the season. The opportunity for Gordon to play centerfield and start in the lineup existed in the vacuum left by Byron Buxton’s mysterious, nagging injury. The team’s caution is Gordon’s advantage; the extra playing time has allowed him and Gilberto Celestino to flex their usefulness until Buxton returns. Smeltzer was the story on Thursday. The often-leaned on lefty came up clutch again, firing off 6 shutout innings with three strikeouts to stymy Cleveland’s bats. The Guardians were confounded all day, sending balls directly toward defenders without recourse; their BABIP against Smeltzer was a paltry .167. No one knows how he continues to do this, but few will dare be anything but grateful for the boost Smeltzer has given to the starting rotation in the absence of multiple starters. But this is a Twins game in 2022, and we know better than to get our hopes up after a great start; the bullpen must do their job, after all. Joe Smith started the 7th inning, and while he loaded the bases before netting out, he somehow wriggled out of the situation, and the team walked away unscathed. Jhoan Duran had the 8th inning and was considerably less noisy in his work. He “hit” Amed Rosario in the hand with a fastball—Rosario’s hands would no longer exist if that were true—but had an otherwise clean inning. Duran then entered the 9th inning, looking to end the game possibly. He obliterated Franmil Reyes before Rocco Baldelli halted the game and began a slow walk to the mound. It’s unclear what Baldelli said—us mere regulars don’t earn the privilege of knowing—but Caleb Thielbar then came bounding out of the bullpen to the sounds of exhausted boos anticipating the future. Andrés Giménez plopped a double into left field, of course, before Ernie Clement dribbled a ball 50 feet; Thielbar threw him out at 1st. Steven Kwan, the nuisance of the series, stepped up to the plate to pinch-hit. Thielbar peppered him with fastballs around the perimeter, daring the rookie to trust his strike zone instincts before blowing a fastball by him for strike three. After two barn-burners, Thursday's game was a tame palate cleanser. Both teams collected just five hits⁠—Carlos Correa had three of them for the Twins⁠—and pitchers issued just three walks on the day. If there was ever a dictionary definition of a getaway day-game, this would be it. Outside of Gordon's homer, the only extra-base hit for the Twins belonged to Gio Urshela, who earned credit for a "double" that Reyes brutally fumbled. Apparently the official scorer felt lenient on Thursday. What’s Next? The Twins will remain in Minnesota and host the Colorado Rockies on Friday, the first time Colorado has played at Target Field since 2017. Dylan Bundy is set to face off against Germán Márquez. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Minor league divisions across the country are finishing up their first-half schedules. If you didn’t know, teams outside of AAA can win their division during the first half of the season and clinch a seed in the playoffs; a handy link to the breakdown can be found here. If you still don’t fully understand, we’ll go over that and more in the following week in review. With short-season teams starting play recently, player names and teams can be somewhat overwhelming. When writing about Rookie Ball and the DSL, I can admit to having to click on a player’s name in the box score to remember their first name; you know you’re digging deep when the players don’t have a photo on MiLB.com. But those games are just as important; the Twins of the future have to start humbly, and they’ll make their way to the upper levels with hard work. TRANSACTIONS The Twins traded veteran infielder Daniel Robertson to the Phillies for Cash considerations. He has been rehabbing with the FCL Twins for the past two-plus weeks. RESULTS Previous Week in Review (6/7-6/13): Saints Sweep Red Wings Tuesday: Alex Kirilloff Does It Again Wednesday: Rucker walks it off, Varland Double-Header Split Highlight Wednesday in the Twins System Thursday: Wallner Blasts on Tough Night for Twins Farm Friday: Cedar Rapids Throws A Shutout, Wichita *is* Shutout Saturday: Kernels Clinch Division Title, Playoff Berth Sunday: Walk-off in Cedar Rapids, Saints Blister Bats MORE TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE CONTENT Minnesota Twins 2014 Draft Retrospective: Swings and Misses TwinsDaily 2022 Draft Coverage, June 16 This season, MLB Fining Parent Clubs for Minor-League Brawls MONDAY’S SHORT SEASON RESULTS FCL Twins 11, FCL Orioles 9 (10 innings) Box Score Starting Pitcher: Juan Rojas (4 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K) Multi-Hit Games: Danny De Andrade (2-for-4, BB, R, 2 RBI), Alexander Pena (2-for-5, 2 R, RBI, 2 K), Yonardy Soto (3-for-5, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 K), Jefferson De La Cruz (2-for-4, 2 RBI, K, SB), Ricardo Olivar (3-for-4, RBI) 2B: Alexander Pena (5), Ricardo Olivar (2) HR: Alexander Pena (2), Yonardy Soto 2 (2), Gregory Duran (1) Rehab Players: Daniel Robertson (0-for-2, K) Top Prospects: Danny De Andrade (2-for-4, BB, R, 2 RBI), Fredy Michel (0-for-6, R, 4 K). Summary: What a wild and wacky game! Going into the 9th inning, the Twins held a 4-0 lead. They added another run in the top of the 9th to go ahead 5-0, but the Orioles scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth to force extra innings. The Twins scored six runs in the top of the inning to take a big league. They gave up four runs in the bottom of the 10th inning and barely held on. DSL Twins 6, DSL Guardians Blue 14 Box Score Starting Pitcher: Jose Betancourt (0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K) Multi-Hit Games: Isaac Pena (2-for-3, 2 BB. 2 R, 2 SB), Jose Rodriguez (3-for-4) XBH: None WEEK IN REVIEW Triple-A: St. Paul Saints Week: 3-3, playing in Columbus Season: 33-32 overall The Saints treaded water this week, but sometimes that’s all a team needs to do. The Columbus Clippers, the AAA affiliate for the Cleveland Guardians, are no pushovers either; they ended the week with a 38-28 season record. These were close affairs; just one run was the difference in five of the six games, including Sunday’s 11-10 thrilling win by the Saints. Manager Toby Gardenhire remained on paternity leave, but the team still gifted him a fine Father’s Day present with his 100th win as St. Paul’s skipper. Alex Kirilloff earned his promotion to the Twins on Friday after collecting four more hits this week. Kyle Garlick began a rehab assignment on Wednesday. The outfielder is hitting .300 over 21 plate appearances but has also struck out eight times. Josh Winder continued his rehab assignment, allowing one run over 3 innings with a strikeout. Curtis Terry hit a blistering .368/.429/.842 with a pair of homers and just one strikeout the entire week. Michael Helman slashed .400/.455/.600 and captured the most hits on the week for the Saints. Spencer Steer returned to orbit as he slashed .179/.200/.321 with 10 strikeouts. Hopefully, this is just a blip on his otherwise outstanding season. Recent signee, Aaron Sanchez, struck out six over 7 1/3 IP but also allowed five earned runs, including a pair of homers. Jordan Balazovic worked in relief this week, allowing two runs over 2 2/3 innings. What’s Next? The Saints are off to Buffalo to play in what was technically a major league ballpark for a year and some change. Pitching Probables (RHP Ronny Henriquez, RHP Josh Winder, RHP Jordan Balazovic, TBD, TBD, TBD) Double-A: Wichita Wind Surge Week: 1-6, @ Tulsa Season: 33-29 overall Things could have gone better for Wichita. The team has cooled off tremendously, and the result was an ugly 1-6 week, although five of those losses were by one run, so things may not be as bad as they seem. Matt Wallner obliterated the ball and walked away with a hilarious .313/.621/.750 slash line. Even more impressive, he walked more than he struck out (11 to eight). Edouard Julien did well also, hitting .280/.400/.560 with a pair of homers. Casey Legumina carried the torch on the mound, allowing only three earned runs over 10 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts. Daniel Gossett impressed in his first start with Wichita, tossing five shutout innings. Sawyer Gipson-Long finally earned a promotion to AA but was touched up for five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. Let’s hope he can brush that off and find his footing with the Wind Surge. Andrew Cabezas threw four shutout innings in relief this week, striking out six while allowing just one hit. What’s Next? Wichita returns home to host the San Antonio Missions. Hopefully, some home cooking will help get them back on track. Pitching Probables (RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long, LHP Kody Funderburk, RHP Blayne Enlow, RHP Casey Legumina, RHP Louie Varland, TBD) High-A: Cedar Rapids Kernels Week: 4-2, hosting Dayton Season: 41-22 overall The Kernels were one of the teams that clinched a playoff spot this week. The team’s win on Saturday secured the first-half division crown, and the team can rest easy knowing that they will have a spot reserved for them in the post-season. In the meantime, there are ballgames to win. Yunior Severino smoked the ball all week, picking up seven hits, including two homers with eight RBIs. Alerick Soularie continued his season turn-around, hitting .368/.478/.632 with a pair of stolen bases. Cody Laweryson spearheaded the pitching effort with 5 2/3 scoreless innings and an incredible 11 strikeouts. Cade Povich wasn’t far behind, as he punched out 11 over 5 innings in his lone start of the week. Aaron Rozek walked away from this week unscathed, as he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings as part of Cedar Rapids’ shutout on Friday. What’s Next? The Kernels will remain at home and host the West Michigan Whitecaps. Pitching Probables (RHP David Festa, LHP Brent Headrick, LHP Aaron Rozek, LHP Cade Povich, RHP Sean Mooney, RHP John Stankiewicz) Low-A: Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels Week: 4-1 Season: 39-22 overall The Mighty Mussels were the other team that clinched a playoff spot this week. Their win on Wednesday ensured that no team in their division could catch them, and their spot in the post-season is now set in stone. Rubel Cespedes burst out of nowhere and dropped nine hits in just 17 at-bats. Kala’i Rosario launched a pair of homers while slugging .857 overall for the week. Luis Baez hit a scorching .500/.579/.563 while striking out as often as he walked (three to three) Noah Miller had just two hits but also walked five times Matt Mullenbach was elite in relief, punching out eight over 5 ⅓ innings devoid of an earned run Malik Barrington followed suit as he tossed 3 shutout innings with six strikeouts. Jordan Carr allowed one earned run in his 5-inning start What’s Next? The Mighty Mussels will head out to Lakeland to take on the Flying Tigers Pitching Probables (RHP Jordan Carr, RHP Travis Adams, RHP Pierson Ohl, TBD, TBD, LHP Jaylen Nowlin) PLAYERS OF THE WEEK Hitter of the Week: OF Matt Wallner, Wichita Wind Surge Matt Wallner might be turning a corner. The hometown talent has always been a slugger—power was never a question—but this week, he showed off an incredible talent for OBP on top of his already legendary ball-crushing ability. His eight strikeouts were still a touch high, but it feels nitpicky to call out when he walked 11 times while slugging .750. His OBP for the week starts with a .6. Enough said. At 24 years old, Wallner appears to be rounding into form at the right time. The lefty battled an assortment of injuries over his first few years in the minors—a bruise here and a nick there—and they added up to sap Wallner of consistency. His power kept him afloat, despite many (including I) questioning whether he could offset the large strikeout totals he racked up. Those strikeouts may never go away, but figuring out how to walk a bunch is an excellent way to even them out. His OBP on the year sits at a massive .408, thanks partly to a (probably) surprising batting average of .270. And, in case you weren’t convinced that his game is more well-rounded than before, he’s even stolen eight bases. It’s hard to see Wallner staying at AA for much longer. Pitcher of the Week: RHP Cody Laweryson, Cedar Rapids Kernels It’s rare to see a reliever win this distinction, but when you have the kind of week Cody Laweryson had, it’s easy to hand it to him. Laweryson made two relief outings; on June 14th, he struck out six over 3 ⅓ scoreless innings, while on June 17th, he struck out five over 2 ⅓ scoreless innings. That’ll play. Laweryson is under the radar, if not entirely off the grid, but that might not be fair to his ability. The righty made noise in 2019 by dominating Rookie-Ball as a 20-year-old, culminating in a monster 15 strikeout performance on August 26th of that season. His road has been bumpier since that breakout, but he could have a nice niche as a long reliever out of the bullpen. Given the breakdown of pitching barriers, that role can be valuable to a team. For a scouting report, Eric Longenhagen described him as a “How the hell is this guy doing this?” style of pitcher, sitting 89 MPH and crushing his competition with it. We’ve seen that work for Joe Ryan; perhaps it will serve Laweryson also. View full article

Ryan Jeffers has become something of a punching bag amongst Twins fans. In a lineup full of boppers, his numbers stand out like a child’s doodle placed next to the Mona Lisa. His lack of production led Aaron Gleeman to write about his “frustrating” offensive development, and some have speculated whether a demotion to AAA would aid Jeffers in finding his groove again. I think this consternation is misplaced, and some under-the-hood stats reveal a hitter performing better than his results indicate. My colleague Nick Nelson recently wrote an article about Ryan Jeffers, outwardly wondering if the team mistakenly bestowed principal catching duties onto the former UNC Wilmington standout. While he never explicitly says it, and I would never want to speak for someone else, I walked away from the piece believing that he thinks that the Twins should not assume Jeffers to be a consistent, everyday starter for them unless he undergoes a serious evolution. Without a doubt, Jeffers’ initial hitting numbers are dreadful, mimicking Tim Laudnerian batting prowess instead of the league-average flirtation we expected from him. His career .202/.280/.378 slash line is dragged down by an even poorer .181/.271/.312 2022 season so far. The Manfred Mushball can’t explain that away. Jeffers’s initial 2020 offensive promise seems to be a mirage; he has failed to sniff even league-average production since that year. However, there are under-the-hood stats that tell a different story. Dan Syzmborski’s recent Fangraphs article detailing under and over-performers based on his secret “z” stats caught my eye. Scrolling down a little to his “zSLUG Underachievers” list will procure a list of names, including our subject for today: Ryan Jeffers. ZIPS believes that Jeffers should be slugging .441—a number in the ballpark of Matt Olson's (.440) and Freddie Freeman's (.441) production levels, not the Adam Frazier (.309) plateau he currently sits at. Syzmborski’s projection system is his creation, so how it reaches that conclusion is hidden from us regulars, but it’s a good sign nonetheless. There are other numbers as well. His Baseball Savant page doesn’t reflect un-impeachable elite performance like one sees from an Aaron Judge or a Mike Trout, but it does tell a tale of an unlucky slugger. Jeffers’ xwOBA is .339—right above league average for all hitters. Digging deeper, his barrel rate of 9.0%—a stat that indicates specific instances of a player hitting the crap out of the ball—puts him in elite territory; 26th amongst all qualified batters in MLB. Barrels aren’t an end-all stat—a player like Luis Arraez can be great because of other characteristics—but it is indicative of extra-base damage, and Jeffers’ current production does not reflect how much impact his bat has. There are other, more subtle numbers as well. Jeffers has tightened his command of the strike zone; his O-Swing % is down to 28.5, while his overall swinging strike rate has plummeted to 9.6%. Believe it or not, he swings at pitches outside the zone at the same rate as Luis Arraez (28.5%), and he whiffs at about the same rate as Paul Goldschmidt (9.5%). His total contact has also vastly improved (72.0% career vs. 78.5% in 2022, around Francisco Lindor territory (78.7%)). Those discipline numbers aren’t elite by any means, but they are average if not above-average in some cases, and average production would be a tremendous improvement for Jeffers. Jeffers’ walk rate reflects these changes (10.9%, up from 8.6%), while his strikeouts have dipped slightly, but probably less than one would expect (30.1%, down from 34.1%). I believe those punchouts will drop even further, given his improved plate control. Ryan Jeffers hits the ball hard at an elite level, has improved his plate discipline numbers across the board, and has worse surface-level hitting stats than before. That should change soon. The often-maligned 25-year-old has a good process in place; he has not found the final crucial step in unlocking his potential: luck. Once fortune turns in his direction, Jeffers will find himself as one of the better catchers in the game. View full article

The Kernels pitched a shutout on Friday, while the Wind Surge were shutout, and the Saints blasted four homers. Read all about that and more in this edition of the minor league report. TRANSACTIONS C Kyle Schmidt transferred to AA Wichita C Frank Nigro transferred to A+ Cedar Rapids OF Alex Kirilloff recalled by Twins INF Elliot Soto outrighted to AAA St. Paul C David Bañuelos placed on 7-day IL (Dislocated right finger) C Roy Morales reinstated from 7-day IL (Back spasms) RHP Daniel Gossett transferred to AA Wichita Saints Sentinel St. Paul 6, Columbus 5 Box Score Ariel Jurado: 3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, BB, 4 K HR: John Andreoli (4), Mark Contreras (7), Curtis Terry (6), Michael Helman (2) Multi-hit games: Michael Helman (3-for-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI), Curtis Terry (2-for-4, HR, R, RBI) St. Paul won a stressful game on Friday. The Saints took a democratic approach to hitting; every batter reached base at least once, and their four homers all came from a different source. John Andreoli hit the first bomb, while Mark Contreras followed suit with a two-run shot. Both home runs came in the 3rd inning. The Clippers did respond, though. The double Wills of Brenson and Brennan (sounds like a law firm) brought home enough runs to tie the game at three; Curtis Terry broke that tie with a solo home run in the 4th. The game entered a pure Cold War stalemate for a handful of innings before Michael Helman Tore Down That Wall with a crucial two-run homer in the top of the 9th inning. Columbus punched through Dereck Rodriguez’s Star Wars defense in the bottom of the inning, but the Saints held strong and walked away victorious. Rodriguez netted the final 15 outs in the game, allowing just two runs in support of Jurado and Hunter Wood. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 0, Tulsa 5 Box Score Blayne Enlow: 3 2/3 IP, H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K HR: None Multi-hit games: None Wichita was shut out on Friday. The famous Dodgers minor league system quieted the Wind Surge bats, striking out 15 with an assortment of arms that would make any team jealous. Tulsa pitchers have given the Wind Surge fits since their inception, and this series has been no different. Bobby Miller did it the other day; Clayton Beeter did it on Friday. Austin Martin was not in the lineup, and perhaps Wichita lost important vibes because of it. Blayne Enlow continued his attempt at finding his footing again after losing crucial development time to injury. He was admirable, working 3 2/3 innings with two earned runs and four strikeouts for good measure. It’s clear that his command isn’t crisp like he would hope, but this is one step in a marathon for him. Alex Scherff was the only pitcher to walk away with an unharmed ERA on Friday, as he allowed no runs in his one inning of work. Matt Wallner hit lead-off, which reminded this author of the time Logan Morrison did the same; what a time that was, huh? Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 3, Dayton 0 Box Score Aaron Rozek: 5 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K HR: None Multi-hit games: None The Kernels won a shutout on Friday. Aaron Rozek was the man of the hour. The lefty held the Dragons to five baserunners over 5 2/3 IP with four strikeouts and, of course, no earned runs. The Dragons are no push-over, as they came into the game with a 38-21 record on the year. Cody Laweryson and Bradley Hanner slammed the door shut, netting the final 10 outs with a single hit allowed and six strikeouts. All three pitchers deserved a nice night out to celebrate their success on Friday; shutouts don't happen every day, after all. The Kernels’ bats did their job as well. They only needed one run, but they plated three off of a fielding error, a ground-rule double, and a wild pitch. In a form so ironic that Alanis Morissette would appreciate it, neither team allowed an earned run on Friday. This author cannot recall the last time they saw that occur in a baseball game. Despite the lack of runs, Cedar Rapids hitters took seven walks on top of their six hits; luck was their enemy in this game. Mussel Matters Fort Myers 8, Bradenton 3 Box Score Pierson Ohl: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, BB, 5 K HR: Rubel Cespedes (1), Carlos Aguiar (2) Multi-hit games: Mikey Perez (2-for-4, 2B, 2 R, RBI), Kala’i Rosario (3-for-4, R), Luis Baez (2-for-4, RBI) Fort Myers cruised on Friday. The Mighty Mussels jumped out early in the 2nd inning thanks to the “ez” brothers—Mikey Perez doubled home a run, and Luis Baez singled home another. Those two represented an effective back-end of the lineup for Fort Myers on Friday; three of the bottom four hitters netted multiple hits. Bradenton ambushed Pierson Ohl in the 3rd, plating three runs off some piranha-like magic, including an RBI groundout and a two-run single. The 3rd inning proved to be the only one Ohl was not dominant in, and he settled in outside of that inning to not allow a run the rest of the way. While Ohl did his job, Malik Barrington and Juan Mendez ensured that the Marauders had no shot to return in the game. The two relievers combined for four effective innings with one hit allowed and an impressive eight strikeouts. Fort Myers pitchers struck out 13 hitters in total. The Mighty Mussels embodied the Earl Weaver approach to baseball and blasted a pair of three-run homers to bury Bradenton. Rubel Cespedes hit the first one, while Carlos Aguiar blasted one in the 8th inning for good measure. Complex Chronicles FCL Twins 2, FCL Red Sox 4 Box Score Brayan Medina: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Alexander Pena (2-for-4, 2 RBI) The FCL Twins took a loss six days in the making. The FCL Twins and FCL Red Sox were supposed to play on June 11th, but rain washed away any hope of playing that game beyond the 1st inning. Rehabbing starter and forgotten piece from the Lance Lynn trade, Luis Rijo, picked up where Bryana Medina left off, tossing two scoreless innings with a pair of strikeouts. Former big-leaguer Daniel Robertson was also on a rehab assignment; he picked up a pair of walks. Alexander Pena provided all the runs for the FCL Twins, with his 1st inning single bringing home two baserunners. The two teams were supposed to play a second game, but it was canceled due to COVID. Dominican Dailies DSL Twins 2, DSL Giants Black 6 Box Score Oscar Paredes: ⅔ IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, K HR: Jose Rodriguez (2) Multi-hit games: None Jose Rodriguez provided all the offense for the DSL Twins with a 4th inning solo homer and an RBI groundout in the 6th. Cristian Jimenez struck out five over three innings of work. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Aaron Rozek, Cedar Rapids Kernels Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Michael Helman, St. Paul Saints PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #3 - Jose Miranda (Minnesota) - In Progress. #7 - Spencer Steer (St. Paul) - 1-5, K #9 - Noah Miller (Ft. Myers) - 0-3, R, 2 BB #14 - Blayne Enlow (Wichita) - 3 ⅔ IP, H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K #15 - Matt Wallner (Wichita) - 1-2, BB, K #16 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 1-3, BB, 2 K #18 - Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cedar Rapids) - 1-2, 2 BB, K SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Columbus (4:05 PM) - RHP Jake Faria Wichita @ Tulsa (7:05 PM) - RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long Dayton @ Cedar Rapids (6:35 PM) - LHP Cade Povich Bradenton @ Fort Myers (6:00 PM) - RHP Marco Raya View full article

Nick Gordon’s baseball career has been an odyssey. The former 2014 first-round pick immediately established residence on top 100 prospect lists across the baseball spectrum, wowing evaluators with an effective combination of speed, batting average, and a potential future at shortstop. His story since includes pitfalls and more challenging experiences than first expected, but he is now finding an effective and valuable role for the Twins. Consider this author among those once skeptical of Gordon’s MLB potential. The son of longtime MLB pitcher Tom Gordon fell flat on his face at AAA in 2018 and only rebounded to respectable, not elite, numbers in 2019. His bat’s potential was less dynamic, his ability to play shortstop was in the “capable of standing in the infield” camp of defensive quality, and the MLB meta grew detached from speed as a desirable trait. Perhaps some role as a utility player—the cursed designation for every fringe player—could fit Gordon’s general skillset, but he would never become a “set it and forget it” type of starter like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler; he had to fight for a role. There are a few ways for an outside player to force a team’s hand; you either hit so well that a team has no choice but to find a position for you, or you scrap around and man numerous positions at an above-average level, allowing a team to use you as a stopgap player. Gordon fits in the latter category. His bat isn’t otherworldly, but he does provide value with it in atypical ways. You probably take one look at Gordon—a 160-pound human according to Baseball-Reference—and assume that he’s the type to dink, dunk, and slash his way to doing damage at the plate. However, Gordon is something of a Statcast hero, owning a max exit velocity of 110.7 MPH in 2022, a number ahead of players like Luke Voit, Nick Castellanos, and Tyler O’Neill. Hitting the ball hard is far from the only way a hitter can do damage, but it does represent extra-base upside, and Gordon (perhaps surprisingly) possesses that kind of potential. xwOBA likes him as well, as Gordon currently sits a few points above the league average in that stat (.333 to .329). How he reaches these concluding stats is the more exciting part. Gordon isn’t one to walk, and he has more swing-and-miss in his game than one would expect, but his contact is strong enough to offset his negative attributes; he owns a .429 xwOBACON in 2022. That’s xwOBA but only including balls in play. Do you want to know how good a .429 xwOBACON is? Josh Donaldson, Mookie Betts, and Paul Goldschmidt all have a lower number in that stat. When Gordon puts the ball in play, good things happen. What has given Gordon the most value, though, is his newfound ability to play multiple positions. Various afflictions have required him to play left field, center field, shortstop, second base, and the guy even pitched once; talk about utility. He does more than just moonlight at these positions; Statcast credits him with an OAA in both left and center in 2022, as his reaction and burst make up for amateur routes. Considering that most of his minor league innings occurred at shortstop, his early success in the outfield is awe-inspiring; he played just 27 2/3 innings there in the minors. Gordon should continue to be considered solely a “break glass in case of emergency” shortstop, and he’ll probably only rarely play at 2nd base given the glut of talent the team already has there, but his defensive acumen should demand a more active team role than one of a player like Jake Cave. If playing time only exists in the outfield, he’s more than capable of making that work. If baseball has an equivalent to the 6th man in basketball, Nick Gordon fits that role perfectly. He’s good at many things but not undeniably elite in any aspect of the game; Gordon instead takes a “jack of all trades” approach, one that stats can only partially quantify. This is also conjecture, but Gordon seems like an excellent clubhouse presence as well, and he can claim a stake in building the culture that many players have raved about this season. The 26-year-old may not be the star we once anticipated, but he’s a useful player on a winning team, and that counts for something. View full article

No one predicted this would occur, yet everyone saw it coming. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Dylan Bundy, 4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, BB, K Home Runs: Luis Arraez (2), Byron Buxton 2 (14, 15), Carlos Correa (4), Trevor Larnach (5) Top 3 WPA: Byron Buxton (.337), Luiz Arraez (.094), Carlos Correa (.068) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Dylan Bundy matched up against Gerrit Cole in the series' rubber match. It looked like a classic David-vs-Goliath battle nestled within a broader clash in a similar vein; the Twins against the Yankees. Bundy coughed up a run in the 1st inning off some dinks and dunks, but the real story of the inning wouldn’t exist until the bottom half. Luis Arraez sent a ball over the wall for a solo homer, Byron Buxton followed suit, and Carlos Correa finally made it an improbable three-peat with a solo home run that made it a 3-1 game before Cole recorded a single out. For real, against Cole. But this was just the 1st inning—one against the Yankees no less; the game was far from over. Bundy nabbed two quick outs in the 2nd inning before Jose Trevino dumped a single into center, and muscly big man Joey Gallo provided the “blast” portion of “a bloop and a blast.” 1st inning fanfare could barely have time to recede before the game turned tied. Because this was a Yankees vs. Twins game, the craziness refused to exit the ballpark, and Buxton launched a three-run homer off Cole in the bottom of the 2nd to push the lead to 6-3. Again, against Gerrit Cole. The Yankees went quietly in the 3rd—perhaps saving their torrent for later—and Trevor Larnach tacked on a solo shot for the 5th Twins homer of the night. There’s probably some German word out there for it—god knows how to spell or say it—but the feeling at this point became an uneasy comfort, one that acknowledges the incredible lead while still not believing for a second that it will hold. Sure, the Twins held a four-run lead after dumping all over one of the finest starting pitchers in the sport, but come on, we know how this story goes; we aren’t fools. The Yankees moved in the 5th inning. Bundy gave up a massive homer to Joey Gallo, the second of the night for the former Ranger before Rocco Baldelli took the lonely trot to the mound and called upon Jharel Cotton in the hopes that he could provide some necessary relief. He did not. A tough missed strike three call necessitated an extra pitch, and D.J. Lemahieu cut the lead down to two with a solo bomb of his own. The Twins' offense was in scuffle mode. Yankees lefty Lucas Leutge pulled a Chad Green in 2017 (since when has it almost been five years since that game?) and held back the onslaught while New York’s bats chipped away as the outs melted away slower than the Twins would have liked. At this point, Twins fans anticipated the dreadful reality of this game's conclusion. The lead lasted one more full inning before, sigh, old friend Aaron Hicks knotted the game at 7 with a two-run homer. It didn’t stop there—the Yankees jumped all over Jhoan Duran and plated two more runs thanks to an Anthony Rizzo single and a Hicks opposite-field knock. New York took just four innings to tie and eventually overtake Minnesota’s quick, fleeting lead. Slow, draining baseball followed until the game mercifully ended. Whatever reliever Aaron Boone chose didn’t matter; they all methodically shut down a Twins offense that crushed Gerrit Cole but could find no answers for Wandy Peralta. The team mustered up just one lonely hit once the struggling starter exited the game. So it goes. The Yankees plated another run—they didn’t matter at this point, but the spirit of competition and sportsmanship call for it—and Minnesota officially fell to New York by a score of 10-7. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

I have about as much confidence in Perez keeping this up as I do in the Twins winning a game against the Yankees

When the Twins acquired Gary Sánchez in that weird trade with the Yankees, I, like many Twins fans, groaned at the thought of having Sánchez on the Twins. Overall, he is a fine player, but his infamous moments of less-than-desirable hustle combined with aesthetically (although statistically mixed) defense did not attract pleasant thoughts. But after watching him play for nearly two months, I have some different thoughts. Let’s begin. We’ll focus solely on Sánchez’s bat in this article; defensive analysis can be left to Parker Hageman or some other actual baseball knower with a shred of a clue regarding mechanics. The Twins weren’t acquiring the frustrating catcher for his glove, after all; they were after his inconsistent yet potentially game-altering bat. You’re well aware of Sánchez’s MLB career narrative. He set the world on fire in 2016, finishing 2nd in AL Rookie of the Year voting to Michael Fulmer, before running it back in 2017 with an elite wRC+ (131) that no qualified catcher has topped over an entire season since. It’s been shaky after that season; Sánchez has oscillated between mediocre, good, and dreadful, with “frustrating” working as the only consistently accurate description of his play in New York. But he’s in Minnesota now; a fresh start with a new franchise. Has he changed? Yes, to a degree. His strikeout and walk rates have moved in the wrong direction for a hitter (career 9.8 BB% to 5.8, and 26.7 K% to 28.3), but the under-the-hood numbers tell a far more interesting story. This story drew inspiration from this one image. Look at that cluster in right-center; does that reflect what you would expect from a traditional dead-pull righty? It may only be four doubles, but that’s enough to catch one’s eye. A similar grouping only ever shows up in his 2017 hit map; what’s going on? WARNING! Numbers ahead, like a lot of them. After seeing that, I moved to check his batted ball data, and wouldn’t you know it, Sánchez has inched towards a more democratic approach to hitting. His pull rate is down (45.5% vs career 51.7%), moving more batted balls into center (31.8% vs career 30.2%) and right (22.7% vs career 18.0%). Becoming a more well-rounded hitter in this vein sounds like a good thing by itself, but it may not be ideal for a powerful pull-hitter. We need more information—is Sánchez doing more damage with this new philosophy? Yes! Actually. Sánchez owns a wRC+ of 172 on batted balls sent to what Fangraphs defines as centerfield—a number almost equal to what he did during his fabulous 2017 campaign (174). He’s still not great on balls shot the other way (57 wRC+)—we didn’t expect him to become righty Juan Soto overnight—but it certainly appears that he’s found a more well-rounded stroke. Is it any coincidence that his BABIP is back up to .282 after he wallowed in Keplerian levels for the last four seasons? The good news is that he isn’t sacrificing any of his crucial pull-power to accomplish this. Sánchez is crushing balls to the tune of a 240 wRC+ when he sends them to left field—a number even finer than his legendary 2017 season. He’s not perfect, however. It seems that his new approach has cost him valuable walks, and his strikeouts have ticked up a touch as well, although I question how sticky the extra Ks are. Walks are valuable, but extra-base hits are even more precious, and the Twins seem to believe that Sánchez is a cleaner fit in the lineup when he’s doing damage, not setting the table. The "underperforming" part of the title stems from his Statcast data; Sánchez is walloping fastballs at a .412 xWOBA clip but only has a .328 wOBA against the pitch. Sure, some of that is due to the soggy ball draining power from everyone's bat, but nearly .100 points of wOBA cannot be explained away with that answer; luck must be involved. It's easy to imagine that his approach will bear even more fruit once the summer heat pushes those warning track disappointments into free souvenirs. There you have it; sometimes, an intuition or a minor blip of information can send you down a rabbit hole from which a truth hides. Gary Sánchez has adjusted his hitting style, and it may have been precisely what the doctor ordered. The former hulking slugger has embraced right-center field and may flourish for it. View full article

Alerick Soularie hit for the first Kernels cycle since 2009, three starting pitchers dominated, and a pair of upper-level outfielders exploded at the plate. It was certainly an eventful night in the Twins system. Read all about that and more in this edition of the minor league report. TRANSACTIONS INF Anthony Prato promoted to AA Wichita OF Dylan Neuse promoted to A+ Cedar Rapids OF Nelson Roberto promoted to A Fort Myers C Jair Camargo placed on IL (AA Wichita) RHP Chi Chi González optioned to AAA St. Paul Saints Sentinel St. Paul 5, Iowa 8 Box Score Dereck Rodriguez: 2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, BB, K HR: Spencer Steer (3), Alex Kirilloff (4) Multi-hit games: Alex Kirilloff (2-for-3, HR, 3 R, RBI, BB), Tim Beckham (2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI) Iowa kicked St. Paul into a hole early on Saturday, and they never recovered. The Cubs jumped all over Dereck Rodriguez in the first inning, plating six runs before the mayhem came to a merciful end. Rodriguez stayed in for another inning, but his night was far shorter than he probably anticipated. St. Paul didn’t take it laying down, though. Spencer Steer popped his third AAA homer, because of course he did, while Tim Beckham drove in runs in the 3rd and 5th innings to slash the lead to two. Alex Kirilloff brought the game within a run with a solo homer in the 7th. Then the momentum ended for St. Paul. Iowa added three runs thanks in part to a homer from Technically Old Friend John Hicks. Jake Faria gritted out six clutch, effective innings, but the task was too tall in the end. Of note: Steer played SS in this game. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 8, Frisco 7 Box Score Louie Varland: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K HR: Chris Williams (4), Edouard Julien (2), Matt Wallner (11) Multi-hit games: Edouard Julien (2-for-5, HR, R, RBI), Matt Wallner (4-for-5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI) Wichita won an extra-inning affair on Saturday. Louie Varland made his bid for pitcher of the day, striking out nine batters over five innings with just two earned runs to his name. On any other day, that start would win him the title, but some other arms were just a bit better. The bats followed a homer-heavy itinerary. Chris Williams, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner all crushed bombs; Williams was the only one who did so with runners on base, though. The Wind Surge carried the lead into the 9th, but the usually reliable Evan Sisk was fallible and allowed the tying run to score. The teams exchanged blows in the 10th before Dennis Ortega sent fans home happy with a zombie runner-scoring single. Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 7, Lansing Lugnuts 5 Box Score Brent Headrick: 5 ⅔ IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K HR: Alerick Soularie (5) Multi-hit games: Alerick Soularie (4-for-4, HR, 3B, 2B, 3 R, 2 RBI), Pat Winkel (2-for-4, 2B, 2 R) The Kernels won again on Saturday. It was the “thousand paper-cuts” method of execution, but that counts all the same. Cedar Rapids was like David Bowie in his Berlin sessions—a consistent force pumping out more hits than you can believe. All but two batters reached base. Brent Headrick continued his excellent start to the season. He netted 17 outs—perhaps the most this author has observed from a Twins minor league starter this year—and never found himself in consistent trouble. The lefty struck out nine hitters. Alerick Soularie was the star of the game, going a perfect 4-for-4 and hitting the Kernels’ first cycle in 13 years. He also walked once. Things got tight in the final innings as Lansing plated a few runs, but the Kernels pulled through in the end. Old Friend Gabriel Maciel was the final out. Mussel Matters Fort Myers 8, Tampa 2 Box Score Travis Adams: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K HR: Keoni Cavaco (3) Multi-hit games: Keoni Cavaco (2-for-4, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI), Kala’i Rosario (3-for-4, R) Fort Myers smacked Tampa on Saturday. Travis Adams set the tone, making sure that his hitters didn’t have to worry about hitting their way out of a deficit. The young righty dominated, allowing just a single earned run over five innings of work with eight strikeouts and no walks. Yeah, that’ll play. The bats picked him up almost immediately. The Mighty Mussels took a slim 2-1 lead in the 3rd inning before Keoni Cavaco blew the doors down and smacked a three-run homer. Cavaco then added an RBI single in the 7th. It’s been a good last 10 days for the former first-round pick, as he came into the day slashing .286/.333/.524 over that stretch. Jaylen Nowlin and Hunter McMahon worked four combined stellar innings in relief, allowing 0 earned runs while punching out nine batters. Fort Myers pitchers struck out 17 Tampa batters overall on Saturday. The Mighty Mussels must have had intel on Tarpons catcher Antonio Gomez, as four different players nabbed a steal off him; Jake Rucker nabbed his 12th of the season, Emmanuel Rodriguez swiped his 11th. Uber prospect Jasson Dominguez went hitless, netting an RBI and striking out once. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Travis Adamsm, Ft. Myers Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Alerick Soularie, Cedar Rapids PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #2 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 1-4, R, K #3 - Jose Miranda (Minnesota) - 1-for-3, 2B, R, RBI, 2 K #7 - Spencer Steer (St. Paul) - 1-for-5, HR, R, 2 RBI, 2 K #8 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Ft. Myers) - 1-for-2, R, RBI, BB, SB #9 - Noah Miller (Ft. Myers) - 0-for-4, R, BB, K #12 - Louie Varland (Wichita) - 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K #15 - Matt Wallner (Wichita) - 4-for-5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI #16 - Edouard Julien (Wichita) - 2-for-5, HR, R, RBI, 3 K #18 - Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cedar Rapids) - 1-for-4, 2B, R, RBI, BB, K SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Iowa (1:08 PM) - RHP Cole Sands Frisco @ Wichita (1:05 PM) - RHP Simeon Woods Richardson Cedar Rapids @ Lansing (12:05 PM) - LHP Aaron Rozek Tampa @ Fort Myers (11:00 AM) - RHP Pierson Ohl Tampa @ Fort Myers (Game Two) - TBD View full article

You are correct, I would say I personally only believe like two things I said here. This was created on a whim, really, and I'm never one to pass up a chance to be snarky for an entire piece.

The esteemed Matthew brother, the one with the surname “Taylor,” decided to write about why people should not be worried about the Twins. In Fairness (™), we at Twinsdaily thought it would be fun to pull a Richard Nixon; reaping the benefits of reactionary negativity by presenting a counter-article proclaiming that we should, indeed, be worried about these Twins. The Twins are currently 4.5 games up on the Cleveland Guardians; the White Sox are stinky, and the Tigers and Royals remembered that they are, in fact, the Tigers and Royals. Every other team in the Twins' division is dreadfully below .500 and has little recourse for their sins. Given the AL Comedy Central context, what could the Twins possibly worry about? A few things! Actually. Let’s talk about the bullpen, that terrible bullpen. Twins relievers moonlighted as an adequate group for a handful of games, perhaps fooling some into believing that Jhoan Duran, Joe Smith, and their Merry Group of Men could hold their own at least until the trade deadline. That came down in a crashing, painful fashion. Cody Stashak is injured, Smith is now mortal, Tyler Duffey forgot that he’s supposed to be good, Caleb Thielbar is walking a small village, and Emilio Pagán… let’s just leave that name undescribed. If not for Duran and his magical right arm, the bullpen would require an NC-17 rating every time Rocco Baldelli called for “support.” Stretching back to when Houston systematically crushed the Twins starting on May 10th, the unit has put up the 6th worst FIP in MLB (4.45). There is little in the form of inspirational reinforcements as well. Yennier Cano has excellent stuff but wrestles with bouts of lost command; Trevor Megill also has great stuff, but, and you’ll be shocked to read this, he too struggles with command at times. Maybe Ian Hamilton or Austin Schulfer could provide a jolt, but it would be foolish to bet on that happening. One could snarkily mention Taylor Rogers, but the Brewers jumped all over him on Thursday, so that punchline is no longer as funny. How about the starting rotation, now. Outside of the one time a week Joe Ryan descends from above to bless us with a great start (or at least when that used to happen before he got COVID), the rotation is more inconsistent than Florida in an election year. Sonny Gray is great but has now suffered multiple injuries; Chris Archer finally hit the five-inning threshold in a start the other day (it’s June), Dylan Bundy is Dylan Bundy-ing, and, honestly, who knows after that. Chris Paddack was a joy to watch until he tore his UCL again, and Josh Winder flashed potential… until he aggravated his right shoulder… again. The rotation is now Bailey Ober and whatever magic Devin Smeltzer has left in his stirrups. Chi Chi González is now starting. The case rests. “But the team is severely injured,” you might say. The Twins these days are indeed the baseball equivalent of the Ship of Theseus, but there’s no promise that the injuries will let up, and what matters is what the team does on the field, not what the team could be doing on the field. There are no awards for potential. To combat an article full of negativity, Ryan and Carlos Correa will return from COVID soon, as will Gilberto Celestino. This very well could be just one of those streaks in a baseball season, the kind that scares everyone into claiming the sky is falling before laughing off the notion after a month of great play; the team did win 18 games in May. Perhaps none of this matters—the Al Central is currently a handful of teams that look more like fronts for tax fraud than actual baseball franchises—but this team is not in great shape. The two-month slog until the trade deadline will be crucial; key pieces need to get healthy and stay healthy for this team to have hope against the better squads in the AL. The house of cards was wobbly to begin with, and they may be slipping with each day. View full article

May has ended, and it is now time to crown the player we at Twins Daily believed is deserving of our coveted Minor League Starter of the Month Award. College arms dominating has been the story so far this year, and our list reflects that. Let's begin! Previous 2022 Starting Pitcher of the Month April - John Stankiewicz Methodology: This isn’t a scientific ranking by any stretch of the imagination. Other minor league writers gave feedback on their top players before the author weighed their choices with his own opinions. Results were less clear-cut than one would hope (one writer had Matt Canterino 2nd while another had him 6th). This is meant to act as a general spotlight to shine on many players, not just the one we deemed “the best,” so don’t take this any more seriously than it needs to be. Honorable Mention - Travis Adams - Fort Myers Mighty Mussels, 3.15 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 29.7 K%, 20 IP Travis Adams, the Twins 6th round pick in 2021 out of Sacramento State, threw his hat in the ring of notable college arms making noise in 2022. He allowed a few more runs than the arms that will grace this list, but he was still outstanding—allowing an opponent batting average of .162 in May against a WHIP of 0.85. Honorable Mention - Chi Chi González - St. Paul Saints, 2.53 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 24.4 K%, 21 1/3 IP Chi Chi González joined the Twins organization this past off-season, inking a minor league deal hoping that he could pitch his way into an unsteady major league rotation. That hasn’t happened yet, but González took a significant step towards that future in May. He rebounded from a shaky April to pitch to a respectable 2.53 ERA in May without giving up a long ball in four starts. Number Five - Sawyer Gipson-Long - Cedar Rapids Kernels, 1.74 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 29.5 K%, 20 2/3 IP Sawyer Gipson-Long, another recent college arm (someone should write about that), popped up on the prospect radar last season and is proving that his success is no fluke. The righty from Mercer crushed his competition in May, allowing a sub-.200 batting average against while striking out batters at nearly a 30% clip. That’s good, folks. His age, combined with his status as an older arm, curses his evaluations to be bland; Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin described him as someone who sits “90-94 with an above-average slider and plenty of strikes.” Keep an eye on him as an under-the-radar pitcher who could be in Wichita very soon. Number Four - Brent Headrick - Cedar Rapids Kernels, 0.93 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 26.0 K%, 19 ⅓ IP Another former-collegiate pitcher, Brent Headrick, has found command in 2022, and hitters have suffered for it. Headrick crushed May, holding a WHIP of just 0.78 with three of his four starts ending without him surrendering an earned run. His FIP held him back from placing higher on this list—the next three pitchers all dominated in ERA and peripherals—but that’s hardly a knock on Headrick’s pitching ability. Allowing two earned runs in an entire month is elite, no matter how you slice it. Number Three - Matt Canterino - Wichita Wind Surge, 2.00 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 37.3 K%, 18 IP Matt Canterino had an unusual month of May; he started four games while piggybacking in another but still ended up with fewer innings than all previously named starters. Nonetheless, he dominated. Canterino allowed runs in just one outing while striking out the world as he returns from an elbow injury that shortened his 2021 season. The Rice product walked more batters than one would prefer (12.0% of them), but his strikeout total in May was so ridiculous that he still ended up at the number three spot. Number Two - David Festa- Fort Myers Mighty Mussels/Cedar Rapids Kernels, 1.45 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 36.8 K%, 18 2/3 IP One of the most talked-about Twins prospects this year, David Festa, had a month to remember in May. The 13th-round pick out of Seton Hall embodied efficiency, striking out hitters like an elite MLB reliever while not sacrificing command in favor of his stuff; he walked just 5.9% of hitters in May. His performance earned him a promotion to Cedar Rapids, where he made two outings; one great and one forgettable. His ascent through the minors could be rapid, so make sure to stop and appreciate Festa before he switches levels again. Number One - Steve Hajjar - Fort Myers Mighty Mussels, 0.51 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 42.6 K%, 17 ⅔ IP For a while, Steve Hajjar was like Cthulu—legendary and fearsome, but never seen as he pitched with a Fort Myers team that doesn’t broadcast their games and only occasionally plays against a team that does. Then May 26th happened. Hajjar took the mound against the Bradenton Marauders and shut them down completely, fanning 10 over 5 ⅔ innings with no earned runs. It was the perfect culmination of Hajjar’s ability. The Twins drafted the tall lefty out of Michigan in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft; enamored by his potential, they handed him over $1 million. Hajjar didn’t pitch for the organization that year, but grumblings from team sources indicated that they were pleased with his internal performance. 2022 hasn’t left much for the imagination. The fewest amount of strikeouts Hajjar netted in a single game is 5, and he’s already punched out 50 batters through 29 innings of work. 29; he’s thrown 29 innings and has 50 strikeouts. Walker Buehler has thrown nearly 60 innings and only has 49. The primary issue left for Hajjar is command—he’s walked 17 hitters in those 29 innings to give him a ghastly 14.7 BB% on the year. Although, there may be signs of control as he’s walked just one batter respectively in each of his last two starts. Hajjar is a starter with immense potential, and it will be a great joy to watch him develop in the Twins system. View full article

We are soon about to reach the fifth anniversary of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine joining the Twins. It was to be an intellectual super-team of sorts; Falvey had drawn praise for building the dominant Cleveland starting rotation, with Terry Francona describing him as a do-it-all “rising star.” Thad Levine, a crucial cog in keeping Texas’ front office together, helped orchestrate two popular World Series teams in Texas. Key to their vision was sustainability, long-term planning, and the “method—” whatever system could best improve a depleted Twins franchise. Are we seeing this process at this moment? If you hadn’t been paying attention to the Twins’ minor leagues, you don’t read this site enough, which is a shame. Twins Daily has been covering the system, uhhh, daily, and there has been an apparent development so far in the season: college arms dominating. Cade Povich, Brent Headrick, Steve Hajjar, David Festa, Travis Adams, Matt Canterino, and Sawyer Gipson-Long have all performed well, especially in the context of a minor league system with less sheen after graduations and under-performance amongst the best prospects. Those names stand out. I find K-BB% to be the best quick-and-dirty stat analysis for pitching prospects. It sums up just how dominant a pitcher is against his penchant for walking batters, and it completely removes poor minor league defense from the equation. It’s an incomplete picture for sure, but that’s how minor league stat-scouting goes. How well are those arms performing in context with their peers? With a minimum of 30 innings pitched, here’s how they compare with pitchers in their division. Players ranked by rank relative to division: *Hajjar has 29 innings pitched as of writing this, but he’s an essential piece of the story, so I included him anyway. Festa has pitched with both Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids in 2022, which makes his placement in the table messy—just know his K-BB% would be elite in either league. The Twins have targeted college arms specifically for years now. Since 2017, their drafts have been 43%, 43%, 38%, and 45% college arms, respectively, with 2020 ignored as it should be for every topic. Bailey Ober, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder were college arms, and while they didn’t draft Joe Ryan, he came from the collegiate ranks as well. It took a few years of cleaning out the gutters, but the system is now overflowing with college arms. This focus is nothing new for Derek Falvey; he coveted multiple collegiate arms during his time as a Cleveland executive. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and Aaron Civale rose through the college ranks before joining Cleveland’s system and found varying levels of success in the majors. That’s three Cy Young winners for those keeping track. An advantage to drafting college arms is their seasoning; those players have more time performing against high-level talent and require less time in the minors than their high school counterparts. Teams know this; it’s why the Angels, probably foolishly, drafted 19 college pitchers in 2021. The draft is 20 rounds. Another truism about drafting college pitchers is that, because their cement is more dry, taking one is less a game of projections and more a project of finding undervalued characteristics. High schoolers might as well be light-years away from the majors, and their development presents an immense risk. The Moneyball book perfectly represented the idea with Billy Beane’s anger at drafting Jeremy Bonderman, a projectable arm with a “clean delivery, and a body that looked as if it had been created to wear a baseball uniform.” Although, Bonderman had the last laugh when he pitched more than 1,200 innings in MLB over a nine-year career. Is this simply just the game repeating itself; it’s meta-game moving full-circle back towards what was cutting edge thinking 20 years ago? Perhaps, perhaps not. If you looked carefully, you’d see that players like Povich and Hajjar found extra velocity ticks after joining the organization. The team could be identifying players with more data attached to them to target a fix or two and enjoy the benefits of a more realized player. After all, this is the landscape of Big Data in baseball, and the Twins might be using it to their advantage. View full article