Matt Braun
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Last Night's Game Recap KCR 3, MIN 2: No Cruz, No Donaldson, No Arráez, No Offense Today: Minnesota @ Kansas City, 6:05 P.M. CT Twins Starter: Jake Odorizzi The big Twins news for Saturday is that Jake Odorizzi is scheduled to return to the mound and make his 2020 debut. The Big Stink was set to be a strong number two in the rotation for the Twins but was forced to miss the start of the season due to back problems. He threw a few bullpen sessions over the last week or so and the team now is evidently satisfied enough with his health to give him the green light. Odorizzi made his first All-Star game in 2019 on the back of arguably his best season to date. An underwhelming 2018 led Odorizzi to seek pitching guidance from an expert in Florida named Randy Sullivan (the details can be found in this blog post). The lasting effect was a renewed career for Odorizzi. He posted the highest K% of his career (27.1%), the lowest FIP of his career (3.36), and the highest fWAR (4.3) of his career as well. This allowed for Odorizzi to accept the QO from the Twins over the off-season and set himself up for a great 2020. His first start in 2020 will come against his old team, Kansas City. You may soon forget that Odorizzi was a Royal for a short time in 2012 as he only threw 7 ⅓ innings for them. He was swiftly dealt to the Rays along with Wil Myers in return for Wade Davis and James Shields, which is a fine group of Guys To Remember right there (I know Davis’ career isn’t over yet, but yikes). Given that this will be Odorizzi's first start of the season, he will have a limited pitch count. He threw 50 pitches the last time he faced hitters and is shooting for 70-75 pitches in today's game. Royals Starter: Danny Duffy The Royals will start one of their longest tenured players in Danny Duffy. The 31-year-old lefty has been with the team since 2011 and has accrued 14.4 career fWAR over 1,070 ⅓ career innings pitched in the majors. Duffy has seen his velocity dip over the years as he no longer is the type of guy to comfortably sit in the 93 MPH range. Still, he has been able to manipulate his pitch usage in order to stay an effective starting pitcher in the major leagues. “Effective” might actually be the perfect word to describe Duffy. You don’t pitch over 1000 major league innings without some ability after all and Duffy has thrown at least 130 innings in six straight seasons. Duffy put up an above average ERA in 2019 (4.34) and could likely be considered the Royals’ ace of the staff. Despite crushing lefties last season to the tune of a 126 wRC+ in 2019, the Twins have struggled with just a 72 wRC+ against them in 2020. That’s a drop from the 2nd best in baseball to the 5th worst. Duffy will be far from a pushover and should give the Twins a challenge. Lineups: https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1292147218263277574 Other Notes: Mike Trout hit a home run. Normally this is anything but news, but this one happened to fall on his 29th birthday; giving him his 5th career birthday home run. https://twitter.com/Angels/status/1291905735278776320 Josh Donaldson was placed on the 10 day IL retroactive to 8/4. Donaldson has been dealing with a right calf strain. https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1291882489531772930 Logan Morrison hit his first home run of the season. I really have no good reason to post this but enjoy it anyways. https://twitter.com/Brewers/status/1291912709324275713 Around the AL Central DET 17, PIT 13 CHW 2, CLE 0 1. MIN 10-4 (+28 run differential) 2. CHW 8-6 (+4) 3. DET 6-5 (-7) 4. CLE 8-7 (+15) 5. KCR 5-10 (-10) Tomorrow's Game: Minnesota @ Kansas City, 1:05 PM CT TBA vs Brady Singer See Also Josh Donaldson's Cursed (and Blessed) Calves What’s Happening at the Alternate Site? Does Lewis Thorpe Have a Velocity Problem? Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Ryan Pressly Trade?
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The Twins are blessed with depth at a number of their positions. Of course, you can point to players like Ehire Adrianza, Jake Cave, and Marwin González who provide an incredible amount of value to the team. Having starter-quality players ready at a moments notice is crucial in the modern game. This is their other great depth piece, Alex Avila, comes into play.The reaction among most Twins fans when the Avila signing was announced was more of a reserved acceptance of the fact rather than an outright celebration. In fairness, most normal human beings don’t celebrate signing backup catchers. Plus, Avila had just spent the last decade being a decidedly average player by traditional stats (with the exception of his monstrous 2011 season). It was also obvious from the beginning that Avila would play the Robin role to Mitch Garver’s batman as Garver had just figured out how to hit baseballs like Mike Trout. For my money, the combo of Avila’s uninteresting surface stats and the naturally humdrum nature of the catcher position are to blame for this reaction. This is the same mixture that doomed Jason Castro to be the butt of many jokes despite how valuable he actually was to the team. Don’t try and say you actually liked Castro, I’ve seen all your tweets about him. But why does Avila have the aesthetic of a boring ballplayer? Well, the backup catcher position naturally is not one that inspires awe in the average fan. They tend to be glove-first players who bring their value in ways that tend to be either difficult to track or nerdy to do so. You don’t often see YouTube compilations of great framing. Beyond that, they also typically find themselves replacing a player with a better bat (Garver). It’s much easier for you, the fan, to appreciate it when Garver launches a titanic homer than when Avila swipes a strike with some tricky framing. But just because a player may be boring does not mean that they lack value. Avila had the 13th most valuable glove out of every catcher with at least 200 PA last season. That may not sound too impressive, but 48 catchers in total hit that plateau last year which places Avila in the upper echelon. Beyond that, just five catchers ahead of him on the list hit for a better wRC+ than Avila in 2019; meaning that Avila wasn’t a standard Drew Butera-type who couldn’t hit his way out of a boot. Avila was also a Statcast darling in 2019. His hard hit % of 49.0 puts him in between such names as Matt Chapman and Yordan Álvarez. His average exit velocity of 91.4 was better than both Manny Machado and J.D. Martinez. To top it off, his Brls/BBE% (barrels per batted ball event) was seventh in all of baseball (min 50 BBE). Yes, I’m aware that every baseball fan over the age of 40 just rolled their eyes at that doozy of a stat. Just understand that Avila often hits the ball hard. With the struggles of Garver and the short season emphasizing the importance of playing the hot bat, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins moved towards giving Avila more playing. Such a choice should not make Twins fans worry. Avila is capable of providing great defense behind the plate along with some offense that may be better than expected. He is much more than just the prototypical “all glove no bat” backup that most teams employ at catcher. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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The reaction among most Twins fans when the Avila signing was announced was more of a reserved acceptance of the fact rather than an outright celebration. In fairness, most normal human beings don’t celebrate signing backup catchers. Plus, Avila had just spent the last decade being a decidedly average player by traditional stats (with the exception of his monstrous 2011 season). It was also obvious from the beginning that Avila would play the Robin role to Mitch Garver’s batman as Garver had just figured out how to hit baseballs like Mike Trout. For my money, the combo of Avila’s uninteresting surface stats and the naturally humdrum nature of the catcher position are to blame for this reaction. This is the same mixture that doomed Jason Castro to be the butt of many jokes despite how valuable he actually was to the team. Don’t try and say you actually liked Castro, I’ve seen all your tweets about him. But why does Avila have the aesthetic of a boring ballplayer? Well, the backup catcher position naturally is not one that inspires awe in the average fan. They tend to be glove-first players who bring their value in ways that tend to be either difficult to track or nerdy to do so. You don’t often see YouTube compilations of great framing. Beyond that, they also typically find themselves replacing a player with a better bat (Garver). It’s much easier for you, the fan, to appreciate it when Garver launches a titanic homer than when Avila swipes a strike with some tricky framing. But just because a player may be boring does not mean that they lack value. Avila had the 13th most valuable glove out of every catcher with at least 200 PA last season. That may not sound too impressive, but 48 catchers in total hit that plateau last year which places Avila in the upper echelon. Beyond that, just five catchers ahead of him on the list hit for a better wRC+ than Avila in 2019; meaning that Avila wasn’t a standard Drew Butera-type who couldn’t hit his way out of a boot. Avila was also a Statcast darling in 2019. His hard hit % of 49.0 puts him in between such names as Matt Chapman and Yordan Álvarez. His average exit velocity of 91.4 was better than both Manny Machado and J.D. Martinez. To top it off, his Brls/BBE% (barrels per batted ball event) was seventh in all of baseball (min 50 BBE). Yes, I’m aware that every baseball fan over the age of 40 just rolled their eyes at that doozy of a stat. Just understand that Avila often hits the ball hard. With the struggles of Garver and the short season emphasizing the importance of playing the hot bat, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins moved towards giving Avila more playing. Such a choice should not make Twins fans worry. Avila is capable of providing great defense behind the plate along with some offense that may be better than expected. He is much more than just the prototypical “all glove no bat” backup that most teams employ at catcher. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Miguel Sanó entered tonight’s game 1-for-17 with eight strikeouts and no walks. He hit a home run in each of his first two trips to the plate in support of a great start by Kenta Maeda, as the Twins beat Cleveland 3-0.Box Score Maeda: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Sanó 2 (2), Rosario (2) Top 3 WPA: Maeda .344, Sanó .172, Rosadio .088 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): Download attachment: Winchart.png King Kenta Kenta Maeda continues to make Twins fans forget who they gave up to receive him (Brusdar who?). His six innings of work took just 83 pitches in total. Maeda’s off-speed offerings stole the show as he was able to get 14/59 total swinging strikes combined between his changeup and slider. The slider was an especially deadly weapon as when hitters actually did put it in play, they averaged just 78.5 MPH off the bat against it. Maeda likely could have gone deeper into the game but manager Rocco Baldelli opted to give the bullpen more work. The first two innings were a bit shaky for Maeda as he struggled with command and had to rely purely on batted balls for his outs. The third inning proved to be pivotal for Maeda’s start as he punched out the side and showed better command until the end of his outing. Miguel Sanó Finds His Groove Sanó was one of the handful of Twins hitters who have struggled to find their timing to begin the season. The already strikeout-prone slugger was whiffing at an astounding 47.1% clip coming into the night and had a batting average that would make any pitcher embarrassed. Parker Hageman broke down some of the mechanical issues he had in his swing a few days ago. Something was evidently different on Saturday as Sanó launched two absolute rockets out of left field against Carlos Carrasco. The Twins offense so far this year has been strangely inconsistent. They had two monster games against the White Sox with a handful of passable performances since against St. Louis and Cleveland. A more consistent Sanó would help alleviate these problems going forward. Eddie Rosario didn’t want to let just one person have all the fun as he launched his own bomba in the 4th inning. The Bullpen Remains Strong The bullpen continued to be incredibly reliable to begin the season as Trevor May, Cody Stashak, and Taylor Rogers combined for three scoreless innings to finish off the game. Both May and Stashak saw some minor traffic in their innings of work but no runs came of it. Rogers has yet to allow a baserunner through his first three outings. Stashak being utilized in the 8th inning may point towards the Twins believing in him more as a late inning guy capable of getting clutch outs late. He could join the long list of reliable Twins relievers whom Baldelli may call on at any time he needs. Although, Stashak did walk his second ever batter, so the wheels might be coming off for him. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Postgame Pint Immediately following the 3-0 win over Cleveland, Nick Nelson, Matthew Trueblood and Renabanena discussed Kenta Maeda's stellar outing and Miguel Sano's two-HR night. Watch below, or download the audio-only podcast. Click here to view the article
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Box Score Maeda: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Sanó 2 (2), Rosario (2) Top 3 WPA: Maeda .344, Sanó .172, Rosadio .088 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs): King Kenta Kenta Maeda continues to make Twins fans forget who they gave up to receive him (Brusdar who?). His six innings of work took just 83 pitches in total. Maeda’s off-speed offerings stole the show as he was able to get 14/59 total swinging strikes combined between his changeup and slider. The slider was an especially deadly weapon as when hitters actually did put it in play, they averaged just 78.5 MPH off the bat against it. Maeda likely could have gone deeper into the game but manager Rocco Baldelli opted to give the bullpen more work. The first two innings were a bit shaky for Maeda as he struggled with command and had to rely purely on batted balls for his outs. The third inning proved to be pivotal for Maeda’s start as he punched out the side and showed better command until the end of his outing. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1289729233019756544 Miguel Sanó Finds His Groove Sanó was one of the handful of Twins hitters who have struggled to find their timing to begin the season. The already strikeout-prone slugger was whiffing at an astounding 47.1% clip coming into the night and had a batting average that would make any pitcher embarrassed. Parker Hageman broke down some of the mechanical issues he had in his swing a few days ago. Something was evidently different on Saturday as Sanó launched two absolute rockets out of left field against Carlos Carrasco. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1289712479786811392 https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1289722776702640131 The Twins offense so far this year has been strangely inconsistent. They had two monster games against the White Sox with a handful of passable performances since against St. Louis and Cleveland. A more consistent Sanó would help alleviate these problems going forward. Eddie Rosario didn’t want to let just one person have all the fun as he launched his own bomba in the 4th inning. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1289715939135467520 The Bullpen Remains Strong The bullpen continued to be incredibly reliable to begin the season as Trevor May, Cody Stashak, and Taylor Rogers combined for three scoreless innings to finish off the game. Both May and Stashak saw some minor traffic in their innings of work but no runs came of it. Rogers has yet to allow a baserunner through his first three outings. Stashak being utilized in the 8th inning may point towards the Twins believing in him more as a late inning guy capable of getting clutch outs late. He could join the long list of reliable Twins relievers whom Baldelli may call on at any time he needs. Although, Stashak did walk his second ever batter, so the wheels might be coming off for him. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Postgame Pint Immediately following the 3-0 win over Cleveland, Nick Nelson, Matthew Trueblood and Renabanena discussed Kenta Maeda's stellar outing and Miguel Sano's two-HR night. Watch below, or download the audio-only podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFHXQeid1cw&feature=youtu.be
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Twins Daily Minor League Draft: Rounds 9-12
Matt Braun posted a topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We kick off the back-half of the draft with rounds nine through 12. By this point, each drafter is digging fairly deep into their minor league knowledge for their picks. Drafting at this point is not unlike searching for supplies during an apocalypse as you're really hoping that no one is looking where you're looking. Each snipe is even more brutal as there are generally very few players who can now replace the guy you were looking at. Let us know who you think is shaping up to have the best roster after 12 full rounds.If you missed the first round rounds, you can view them here. A brief primer: We're taking 16 players with "prospect" or "rookie" status. Positions on each team included: Catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three outfielders, a bench player/hitter, three starting pitchers, three relief pitchers, and an extra pitcher. (Please note that comments under the picks were made by the person making the selection.) Round 9 Seth Stohs - DaShawn Keirsey, OF 2019 was a tough season for Keirsey. He struggled and he just wasn’t able to stay on the diamond for an extended period of time. But, he is as athletic as anyone in the organization, and he can play a very good defensive centerfield. Steve Lein - Moises Gomez, RP Happy to land the guy I voted for as Twins Daily's 2019 Relief Pitcher of the year. He led Twins minor leaguers in K/9 rate at 13.3 and held hitters to an average under .150. He finished his season by being sent to the Arizona Fall League. Ted Schwerzler - Chris Williams, C The bat wasn’t what it was in 2018 with Elizabethton, but Chris Williams put on a show during his pro debut year. He swatted 15 dingers right out of the gate, and even in a down 2019, reached double digits. Lots to like here, and while he may not be the ideal defender behind the plate, I’m banking on the offense. Cody Christie - Jacob Pearson, OF I’ve been a big fan of Pearson since the Twins acquired him from the Angels. The organization has been aggressive with him and he put up some of his best offensive numbers after getting to the FSL last season. If the Twins continue to be aggressive with him, I think there will be positive results. Jeremy Nygaard - Yennier Cano, RP The Twins signing MLB.com’s #2 international free agent didn’t make big news as it came at the close of the 2019 IFA period and amidst the Twins division pennant run. Cano struggled with control during his American debut, but has the chance to move very quickly (and be a steal at this point in the draft.) I should also note Thievin’ Ted took the other two guys I targeted for this pick. Matt Braun - Yeltsin Encarnacion, SS I needed a shortstop like a plant needs water. Encarnacion fills the role with a passable bat for the position and the opportunity to move as Royce Lewis moves through the minor league system. Plus, his name is “Yeltsin”, what isn’t to love? Round 10 Matt Braun - Gabe Snyder, 1B Snyder provides the standard 1st base pop that was needed in my lineup. He isn’t as flashy of an option as someone like Zander Wiel but a 131 wRC+ at Cedar Rapids is great no matter how you slice it. Jeremy Nygaard - Anthony Prato, 2B Had to reverse course after plans to add power in Julien or Wiliams was foiled. Prato, who lacks power, makes up for it with speed and on-base skills. Between the top three of Celestino-Prato-Wade, there will be plenty of guys on base (who can also pose a threat to steal) for Wiel. Now just need to find more power bats... Cody Christie - Charles Mack, 2B The Twins took Mack out of high school back in 2018 and he played all last season with the E-Twins. He’s been young for both levels he has played at so far and he has been able to hold his own. Defensively, he has split time between third and second base. I’ll pencil him at second since I already have Steer at third. Ted Schwerzler - Max Smith, OF Smith was a late round pick in 2019, and while he was old for the Appy League, he showed up nicely. Power isn’t something I’d expect from him, but he did put seven balls over the fence. Add in that he can play all three outfield positions and this is where I’ll build that group from. Steve Lein - Caleb Hamilton, C Lot of reliever arms still left I like here, but pitchers need someone to throw to, right? Hamilton has played all over the diamond, but I'll keep him at catcher to utilize his leadership. Hamilton also gets on base and flashes power. Seth Stohs - Jovani Moran, LHRP He struggled a bit in 2019, primarily with control, but Moran has a track record of dominance. In 34 innings in 2019, he struck out 50 batters. Then he struck out 14 batters in nine innings in the AFL. From a roster construction standpoint, it will be good to have a lefty in the bullpen too. Round 11 Seth Stohs - Wander Valdez, 3B In the GCL last summer, Valdez hit .323 with six doubles and four home runs. This spring training in Ft. Myers, Valdez was one of the most impressive young prospects that I saw. He’s big, strong and athletic and looks to have a ton of power potential. Steve Lein - Tom Hackimer, RP The sidewinding righty has been phenomenal in the Twins system thus far with a 2.77 ERA and K/9 rate north of 10 as a pro. Surgery held him back for most of the 2018 season, slowing his rise, but rebounded in 2019 and could be an option for the Twins bullpen in the near future. Ted Schwerzler - Ernie De La Trinidad OF Acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade with the Diamondbacks, De La Trinidad brings it across the board. None of the tools are flashy, but all have a chance to be average or better. Another strong outfield type, he’ll fit nicely out there on my team. Cody Christie - Victor Heredia, 1B Heredia showed some power during his time in the DSL but that power didn’t follow him last year as he made his debut with the GCL Twins. With another year of experience under his belt, I think the power will return and he completes the right side of my infield. Jeremy Nygaard - Zach Neff, LHRP Neff was a late-round pick in 2018, but has impressed enough to get a post-2019 invite to the AFL. He’s not great against right-handed batters, but dominates lefties and has posted over 9.00 K/9s both seasons as a pro. Matt Braun - Hector Lujan, RHRP Lujan had an odd year in 2019 as he struck out less hitters than usual at Fort Myers but then walked more hitters than usual at Pensacola. He’s been remarkably consistent so far in his career and his miniscule homerun rate made him an attractive candidate for my first reliever spot. Round 12 Matt Braun - Ryan Shreve, RHRP Everyone has “their guy” in the system and Shreve is certainly mine. He struck out 29.9% of batters in rookie ball for his first taste of professional baseball and that will work at any level. Once his BABIP is under control, he should move quickly through the system. Jeremy Nygaard - Drew Maggi, 3B Adding a 31-year-old to provide veteran leadership to an infield that includes two guys making their full-season debut. Good for getting on base, I also expect Maggi to bring double digits home runs and stolen bases to the lineup. Cody Christie - Anthony Escobar, RHRP I need to fill up a bullpen with the rest of my picks and Escobar is a good starting point. The 19-year old made his GCL debut last season and was asked to finish games for the first time in his career. His strikeout numbers aren’t there yet, but he doesn’t walk a ton and he has the potential to add to his small frame. Ted Schwerzler - Jimmy Kerrigan, OF Kerrigan was undrafted and has spent time in Indy Ball, but he’s also flashed at different stops in the Twins system. There’s both power and speed potential here, and rounding out my outfield this is a safe pick. Steve Lein - Jordan Gore, SS Ted sniped me above with Kerrigan, but I've also been planning to start shuffling some prior picks around the diamond to accomodate what is left. I like Gore's defense at SS a bit more than Gordon's, so I'll shift Nick to 2B. There's not been much bat here yet, but is a switch hitter with some speed and arguably the best hair in the organization. Side Note - Gore has been moved to the mound and is 100% a pitcher in 2020, so Steve has a true dual threat on his hands! Seth Stohs - Michael Helman, 2B Helman had a fantastic college career, and the Twins made him their 11th round pick in 2018. After signing, he quickly moved up to Cedar Rapids. He was pushed very aggressively to Ft. Myers to start 2019 and really struggled with the bat until a season-ended wrist injury. But he could hit, and he is a terrific middle-infield glove. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article-
- dashawn keirsey jr
- moises gomez
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If you missed the first round rounds, you can view them here. A brief primer: We're taking 16 players with "prospect" or "rookie" status. Positions on each team included: Catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three outfielders, a bench player/hitter, three starting pitchers, three relief pitchers, and an extra pitcher. (Please note that comments under the picks were made by the person making the selection.) Round 9 Seth Stohs - DaShawn Keirsey, OF 2019 was a tough season for Keirsey. He struggled and he just wasn’t able to stay on the diamond for an extended period of time. But, he is as athletic as anyone in the organization, and he can play a very good defensive centerfield. Steve Lein - Moises Gomez, RP Happy to land the guy I voted for as Twins Daily's 2019 Relief Pitcher of the year. He led Twins minor leaguers in K/9 rate at 13.3 and held hitters to an average under .150. He finished his season by being sent to the Arizona Fall League. Ted Schwerzler - Chris Williams, C The bat wasn’t what it was in 2018 with Elizabethton, but Chris Williams put on a show during his pro debut year. He swatted 15 dingers right out of the gate, and even in a down 2019, reached double digits. Lots to like here, and while he may not be the ideal defender behind the plate, I’m banking on the offense. Cody Christie - Jacob Pearson, OF I’ve been a big fan of Pearson since the Twins acquired him from the Angels. The organization has been aggressive with him and he put up some of his best offensive numbers after getting to the FSL last season. If the Twins continue to be aggressive with him, I think there will be positive results. Jeremy Nygaard - Yennier Cano, RP The Twins signing MLB.com’s #2 international free agent didn’t make big news as it came at the close of the 2019 IFA period and amidst the Twins division pennant run. Cano struggled with control during his American debut, but has the chance to move very quickly (and be a steal at this point in the draft.) I should also note Thievin’ Ted took the other two guys I targeted for this pick. Matt Braun - Yeltsin Encarnacion, SS I needed a shortstop like a plant needs water. Encarnacion fills the role with a passable bat for the position and the opportunity to move as Royce Lewis moves through the minor league system. Plus, his name is “Yeltsin”, what isn’t to love? Round 10 Matt Braun - Gabe Snyder, 1B Snyder provides the standard 1st base pop that was needed in my lineup. He isn’t as flashy of an option as someone like Zander Wiel but a 131 wRC+ at Cedar Rapids is great no matter how you slice it. Jeremy Nygaard - Anthony Prato, 2B Had to reverse course after plans to add power in Julien or Wiliams was foiled. Prato, who lacks power, makes up for it with speed and on-base skills. Between the top three of Celestino-Prato-Wade, there will be plenty of guys on base (who can also pose a threat to steal) for Wiel. Now just need to find more power bats... Cody Christie - Charles Mack, 2B The Twins took Mack out of high school back in 2018 and he played all last season with the E-Twins. He’s been young for both levels he has played at so far and he has been able to hold his own. Defensively, he has split time between third and second base. I’ll pencil him at second since I already have Steer at third. Ted Schwerzler - Max Smith, OF Smith was a late round pick in 2019, and while he was old for the Appy League, he showed up nicely. Power isn’t something I’d expect from him, but he did put seven balls over the fence. Add in that he can play all three outfield positions and this is where I’ll build that group from. Steve Lein - Caleb Hamilton, C Lot of reliever arms still left I like here, but pitchers need someone to throw to, right? Hamilton has played all over the diamond, but I'll keep him at catcher to utilize his leadership. Hamilton also gets on base and flashes power. Seth Stohs - Jovani Moran, LHRP He struggled a bit in 2019, primarily with control, but Moran has a track record of dominance. In 34 innings in 2019, he struck out 50 batters. Then he struck out 14 batters in nine innings in the AFL. From a roster construction standpoint, it will be good to have a lefty in the bullpen too. Round 11 Seth Stohs - Wander Valdez, 3B In the GCL last summer, Valdez hit .323 with six doubles and four home runs. This spring training in Ft. Myers, Valdez was one of the most impressive young prospects that I saw. He’s big, strong and athletic and looks to have a ton of power potential. Steve Lein - Tom Hackimer, RP The sidewinding righty has been phenomenal in the Twins system thus far with a 2.77 ERA and K/9 rate north of 10 as a pro. Surgery held him back for most of the 2018 season, slowing his rise, but rebounded in 2019 and could be an option for the Twins bullpen in the near future. Ted Schwerzler - Ernie De La Trinidad OF Acquired in the Eduardo Escobar trade with the Diamondbacks, De La Trinidad brings it across the board. None of the tools are flashy, but all have a chance to be average or better. Another strong outfield type, he’ll fit nicely out there on my team. Cody Christie - Victor Heredia, 1B Heredia showed some power during his time in the DSL but that power didn’t follow him last year as he made his debut with the GCL Twins. With another year of experience under his belt, I think the power will return and he completes the right side of my infield. Jeremy Nygaard - Zach Neff, LHRP Neff was a late-round pick in 2018, but has impressed enough to get a post-2019 invite to the AFL. He’s not great against right-handed batters, but dominates lefties and has posted over 9.00 K/9s both seasons as a pro. Matt Braun - Hector Lujan, RHRP Lujan had an odd year in 2019 as he struck out less hitters than usual at Fort Myers but then walked more hitters than usual at Pensacola. He’s been remarkably consistent so far in his career and his miniscule homerun rate made him an attractive candidate for my first reliever spot. Round 12 Matt Braun - Ryan Shreve, RHRP Everyone has “their guy” in the system and Shreve is certainly mine. He struck out 29.9% of batters in rookie ball for his first taste of professional baseball and that will work at any level. Once his BABIP is under control, he should move quickly through the system. Jeremy Nygaard - Drew Maggi, 3B Adding a 31-year-old to provide veteran leadership to an infield that includes two guys making their full-season debut. Good for getting on base, I also expect Maggi to bring double digits home runs and stolen bases to the lineup. Cody Christie - Anthony Escobar, RHRP I need to fill up a bullpen with the rest of my picks and Escobar is a good starting point. The 19-year old made his GCL debut last season and was asked to finish games for the first time in his career. His strikeout numbers aren’t there yet, but he doesn’t walk a ton and he has the potential to add to his small frame. Ted Schwerzler - Jimmy Kerrigan, OF Kerrigan was undrafted and has spent time in Indy Ball, but he’s also flashed at different stops in the Twins system. There’s both power and speed potential here, and rounding out my outfield this is a safe pick. Steve Lein - Jordan Gore, SS Ted sniped me above with Kerrigan, but I've also been planning to start shuffling some prior picks around the diamond to accomodate what is left. I like Gore's defense at SS a bit more than Gordon's, so I'll shift Nick to 2B. There's not been much bat here yet, but is a switch hitter with some speed and arguably the best hair in the organization. Side Note - Gore has been moved to the mound and is 100% a pitcher in 2020, so Steve has a true dual threat on his hands! Seth Stohs - Michael Helman, 2B Helman had a fantastic college career, and the Twins made him their 11th round pick in 2018. After signing, he quickly moved up to Cedar Rapids. He was pushed very aggressively to Ft. Myers to start 2019 and really struggled with the bat until a season-ended wrist injury. But he could hit, and he is a terrific middle-infield glove. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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- dashawn keirsey jr
- moises gomez
- (and 3 more)
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Minor League Baseball Is Being Dismantled
Matt Braun replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I also wanted to add that I'm proud of the fact that the Twins are not going to cut any of their minor leaguers at this time. Giving their players stability is exactly what teams should be doing and it brings my joy to know that the Twins care. -
Twins Daily Minor League Draft: Rounds 1-4
Matt Braun replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Gotta say, I'm liking that Matt kid and his selections. -
MLB has had quite the struggle recently regarding its own short-term future. The players and owners remain in a stalemate for the time being and each new day brings seemingly worse news for the potential of a season actually starting. During all of this fuss, the minor leagues have been thoroughly picked clean on a daily basis.Over the last few days, major league teams have announced their decisions regarding the future of their minor league players. 28 of the 30 teams have publicly committed to paying their minor league players at least through the end of June. Many of these commitments however were also met with a grand exodus of roster cuts. News of the roster cuts naturally came after the teams gained some goodwill from their announcements as they saw opportunities to bury the more unpleasant flip-side of their promise. It would be foolish to categorize all of these roster cuts as purely evil. In any normal year, minor leaguers are released after spring training and before the draft consistently as teams decide who is worth keeping around beyond the short term. Yet, the timing of the cuts in conjunction with the uncertainty surrounding the general economic apprehension at the moment does turn these roster moves into something beyond a standard activity. Many of these players have been hyper-focused on baseball alone over the majority of their lives and now will have to pivot toward finding a new income source for the near future. For many, this will signal the end of their careers as a whole. At $400 a week, it costs just $6,000 total to keep a minor leaguer on payroll until the end of the minor league system. Multiply that by the number of players being dropped and you'll find that every team is saving about half the cost of the major league minimum salary. Evidently, that is too much for some teams. This gutting of the minors isn’t coming completely out of the blue. MLB was already set on cutting 40 minor league teams before the season and the loss of revenue from games put MiLB in a position of even less power. MLB under Rob Manfred has been dead-set on eliminating anything fun that holds inherent benefits that can’t be tracked by a dollar sign. They do not care for the impact that these teams have on small communities, or the alienation of fans who use these games as a cheap alternative to MLB, or for the hundreds (maybe thousands) of players and coaches who are supported by these teams. Granted, not every single minor league player will become a future major league player or provide the needed depth for an organization. But is the potential for a player figuring it out not worth the incredibly low cost of keeping them around? Randy Dobnak was found from the depths of independent baseball, eventually started a playoff game, and now looks to be in contention for a starting rotation spot. Max Muncy was given a second chance by the Dodgers and is now one of the better hitters in baseball. Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round of the draft as a favor and eventually became one of the best catchers of all-time. What if none of those players got their shot because the team deemed them to not be worth it? This gutting of the minor leagues destroys the great infracture of MLB. They’ll claim that these moves make the system more efficient because pure productivity is all they care about. To them, these aren’t teams, or players, or coaches who all have identities; they are just numbers. Numbers that can be eliminated or tossed away with the snap of a finger. It’s an unfortunate tragedy that will likely get lost in the greater discussion currently surrounding baseball but will be just as important to baseball’s professional future in North America. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article
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Over the last few days, major league teams have announced their decisions regarding the future of their minor league players. 28 of the 30 teams have publicly committed to paying their minor league players at least through the end of June. Many of these commitments however were also met with a grand exodus of roster cuts. News of the roster cuts naturally came after the teams gained some goodwill from their announcements as they saw opportunities to bury the more unpleasant flip-side of their promise. It would be foolish to categorize all of these roster cuts as purely evil. In any normal year, minor leaguers are released after spring training and before the draft consistently as teams decide who is worth keeping around beyond the short term. Yet, the timing of the cuts in conjunction with the uncertainty surrounding the general economic apprehension at the moment does turn these roster moves into something beyond a standard activity. Many of these players have been hyper-focused on baseball alone over the majority of their lives and now will have to pivot toward finding a new income source for the near future. For many, this will signal the end of their careers as a whole. At $400 a week, it costs just $6,000 total to keep a minor leaguer on payroll until the end of the minor league system. Multiply that by the number of players being dropped and you'll find that every team is saving about half the cost of the major league minimum salary. Evidently, that is too much for some teams. This gutting of the minors isn’t coming completely out of the blue. MLB was already set on cutting 40 minor league teams before the season and the loss of revenue from games put MiLB in a position of even less power. MLB under Rob Manfred has been dead-set on eliminating anything fun that holds inherent benefits that can’t be tracked by a dollar sign. They do not care for the impact that these teams have on small communities, or the alienation of fans who use these games as a cheap alternative to MLB, or for the hundreds (maybe thousands) of players and coaches who are supported by these teams. Granted, not every single minor league player will become a future major league player or provide the needed depth for an organization. But is the potential for a player figuring it out not worth the incredibly low cost of keeping them around? Randy Dobnak was found from the depths of independent baseball, eventually started a playoff game, and now looks to be in contention for a starting rotation spot. Max Muncy was given a second chance by the Dodgers and is now one of the better hitters in baseball. Mike Piazza was taken in the 62nd round of the draft as a favor and eventually became one of the best catchers of all-time. What if none of those players got their shot because the team deemed them to not be worth it? This gutting of the minor leagues destroys the great infracture of MLB. They’ll claim that these moves make the system more efficient because pure productivity is all they care about. To them, these aren’t teams, or players, or coaches who all have identities; they are just numbers. Numbers that can be eliminated or tossed away with the snap of a finger. It’s an unfortunate tragedy that will likely get lost in the greater discussion currently surrounding baseball but will be just as important to baseball’s professional future in North America. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here
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Few things get baseball fans more riled up then talking about the Hall of Fame and who deserves to make it in. To continue that, we’ll be looking at the cases for two Twins who look to be, as of today, on the fringe of making it.Torii Hunter: Hunter’s case is decent. He won nine Gold Glove awards, two Silver Sluggers, and was a five time All-Star over his career. The good news for Hunter is that there are only six outfielders who have more career GG’s (Clemente, Mays, Griffey Jr., Jones, Kaline, Suzuki). Four of those players are already in the Hall while Suzuki will certainly make it once he’s eligible. Much of Torii’s case rests on the strength of those GG awards and how much voters weigh that when deciding who to vote for. The bad news for Hunter is that those four outfielders already in the hall were much better hitters over the course of their careers than Hunter. Hunter aligns almost perfectly offensively with Andruw Jones, the other outfielder with more GGs than Hunter who snagged just 19.4% of the vote in his third year on the ballot. Hunter’s career OPS+ sits at 110 while Jones is at 111. Beyond the fact that Hunter wasn’t quite an elite hitter, he never was unquestionably one of the best players in baseball at any point in his career. The highest he ever placed in MVP voting was when he came in sixth in 2002, and even then he was only the 25th best position player in the AL by fWAR. Both Corey Koskie and Jacque Jones were more valuable by that stat. Hunter never finished higher than 15th beyond that year. Hunter will have an advantage as he will be eligible for the ballot next year and there aren’t many players joining him who have slam-dunk cases. Curt Schilling could make it but no one else seems like an obvious case unless the voters suddenly get real cool about steroids real quickly. Hunter could garner some back-ballot votes as he only has to fight Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson as other strong newcomers. Josh Donaldson: As is, Donaldson faces a similar uphill battle but he has reached his own point in a starkly different way than Hunter. While Hunter started playing consistently at the age of 24, Donaldson didn’t see his first full season until 2013 during his age-27 season. That has yet to be a negative for the Bringer of Rain. Every season that Donaldson has seen at least 400 at-bats has resulted in him getting MVP votes including his 2015 season that won him the award outright. Since 2013, the only position player with more fWAR would be the one and only, Mike Trout. Let’s put it this way; Donaldson certainly has the peak play needed to gain entry into the Hall. After another great 2019 season with the Braves, his peak might not even be behind him quite yet. The major difference between Hunter and Donaldson is that Donaldson can still alter his career and improve his case for the Hall. A strong four years in Minnesota would likely cement Donaldson’s case for the Hall, especially if he leads the team to a title. Anything less is where his case starts to get a bit murky as he may fall into the Dale Murphy pit of “great peak but not enough longevity”. These next few seasons will be crucial for Donaldson’s case and he’s certainly not being helped by these lost games. Both players present different yet similar cases for the Hall. One has to leave it all up to the voters while the other can still influence his career and build onto an already impressive resume. What do you think? Do either of these players belong in the Hall of Fame? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article
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Torii Hunter: Hunter’s case is decent. He won nine Gold Glove awards, two Silver Sluggers, and was a five time All-Star over his career. The good news for Hunter is that there are only six outfielders who have more career GG’s (Clemente, Mays, Griffey Jr., Jones, Kaline, Suzuki). Four of those players are already in the Hall while Suzuki will certainly make it once he’s eligible. Much of Torii’s case rests on the strength of those GG awards and how much voters weigh that when deciding who to vote for. The bad news for Hunter is that those four outfielders already in the hall were much better hitters over the course of their careers than Hunter. Hunter aligns almost perfectly offensively with Andruw Jones, the other outfielder with more GGs than Hunter who snagged just 19.4% of the vote in his third year on the ballot. Hunter’s career OPS+ sits at 110 while Jones is at 111. Beyond the fact that Hunter wasn’t quite an elite hitter, he never was unquestionably one of the best players in baseball at any point in his career. The highest he ever placed in MVP voting was when he came in sixth in 2002, and even then he was only the 25th best position player in the AL by fWAR. Both Corey Koskie and Jacque Jones were more valuable by that stat. Hunter never finished higher than 15th beyond that year. Hunter will have an advantage as he will be eligible for the ballot next year and there aren’t many players joining him who have slam-dunk cases. Curt Schilling could make it but no one else seems like an obvious case unless the voters suddenly get real cool about steroids real quickly. Hunter could garner some back-ballot votes as he only has to fight Mark Buehrle and Tim Hudson as other strong newcomers. Josh Donaldson: As is, Donaldson faces a similar uphill battle but he has reached his own point in a starkly different way than Hunter. While Hunter started playing consistently at the age of 24, Donaldson didn’t see his first full season until 2013 during his age-27 season. That has yet to be a negative for the Bringer of Rain. Every season that Donaldson has seen at least 400 at-bats has resulted in him getting MVP votes including his 2015 season that won him the award outright. Since 2013, the only position player with more fWAR would be the one and only, Mike Trout. Let’s put it this way; Donaldson certainly has the peak play needed to gain entry into the Hall. After another great 2019 season with the Braves, his peak might not even be behind him quite yet. The major difference between Hunter and Donaldson is that Donaldson can still alter his career and improve his case for the Hall. A strong four years in Minnesota would likely cement Donaldson’s case for the Hall, especially if he leads the team to a title. Anything less is where his case starts to get a bit murky as he may fall into the Dale Murphy pit of “great peak but not enough longevity”. These next few seasons will be crucial for Donaldson’s case and he’s certainly not being helped by these lost games. Both players present different yet similar cases for the Hall. One has to leave it all up to the voters while the other can still influence his career and build onto an already impressive resume. What do you think? Do either of these players belong in the Hall of Fame? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here
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Predicting Future Twins Aces
Matt Braun replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No evidence? Does he not get any credit for being a high-ranking member of a front office that put together an historic starting rotation? Do you believe that the Twins' recent massive pitching improvements occurred naturally without Falvey's influence? If you don't think Falvey deserves any credit, there's a great book called The MVP Machine that might change your mind. -
Predicting anything in baseball is a laughable pastime. The very foundation of the game is founded on the notion that “stuff happens” which leads to the chaos that makes the game so enjoyable to many. In this chaos, patterns of success occasionally emerge and are then repeated until they no longer prove to be useful. One of these patterns happens to include Luis Rijo, Jhoan Duran, and Chris Vallimont.For those unaware, Rijo, Duran, and Vallimont are three minor league pitchers in the Twins’ organization. Rijo pitched well at Cedar Rapids the entire season as he put up a 2.86 ERA over 107 innings with good peripherals. Duran reached AA in 2019 as he simply refused to stop striking people out (29.9 K% at A+) and had great peripherals at AA despite a poor ERA of 4.86 (2.76 FIP). Vallimont was having a great year with Miami before coming over to the Twins. At Fort Myers, he put up a cartoonish 1.34 FIP over 22 1/3 innings. Three pitchers did well, big whoop, why are they special? To answer that question, we have to hop into a time machine and go back a few years into the past. On the final day of the trade deadline in 2010, the Cleveland Indians partook in a three-team trade that would have been lost to the sands of time if not for the fact that they acquired future Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber. Kluber was a no-nothing prospect for the Padres at the time but, as we all know so very well, he would develop into one of the best starters in baseball with the Indians. The next important year is 2014. During the waiver wire period following the trade deadline, the Indians acquired Mike Clevinger from the Angels for Vinnie Pestano. Like Kluber, Clevinger was not much of a prospect at the time. He finished 2014 with an ERA of 4.41 in the minors but continued to improve. These days we all know Clevinger as another frustratingly good pitcher for the Indians. The essential string that ties together all five pitchers (Rijo, Duran, Vallimont, Kluber, and Clevinger) is that they were all acquired as minor leaguers in trades with other teams. To pin every single one of these deals (especially the ones in Cleveland) on Falvey alone would be incorrect. Front offices have about 100 positions with titles that sound quite similar to each other so any move made by a team had the input of a great number of minds beforehand. Yet, it is fair to say that Falvey played some role in the moves made in Cleveland and he undoubtedly has brought his pitching knowledge over to the Twins. Part of this knowledge has been applied to major league squad as a number of pitchers had career seasons in 2019. The system of development as a whole has been cleaned up also which has helped players like Randy Dobnak, Zack Littell, and Cody Stashak to hold their own at the major league level. But this knowledge can be applied to pitchers outside of the organization as well. The Astros, cheating aside, have found great success in finding value in under-performing major league pitchers. They steal them, pump them full of numbers, and then spit out a deadly machine of nastiness. The Twins may be taking a slightly different route in acquiring high upside minor leaguers and then developing them from within. This strategy is much more in line with how the Indians built their past dominant starting rotations. Kluber, Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco were all not drafted by the Indians yet they all found their footing with them. Ultimately, this form of predicting success is still a crapshoot. Just because it happened before to other starters does not immediately make every pitcher the Twins acquire a future ace. It does make those pitchers very interesting prospects to keep track of. Because if someone who has an eye for talent likes a certain player, then perhaps that player might be someone to keep tabs on. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article
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For those unaware, Rijo, Duran, and Vallimont are three minor league pitchers in the Twins’ organization. Rijo pitched well at Cedar Rapids the entire season as he put up a 2.86 ERA over 107 innings with good peripherals. Duran reached AA in 2019 as he simply refused to stop striking people out (29.9 K% at A+) and had great peripherals at AA despite a poor ERA of 4.86 (2.76 FIP). Vallimont was having a great year with Miami before coming over to the Twins. At Fort Myers, he put up a cartoonish 1.34 FIP over 22 1/3 innings. Three pitchers did well, big whoop, why are they special? To answer that question, we have to hop into a time machine and go back a few years into the past. On the final day of the trade deadline in 2010, the Cleveland Indians partook in a three-team trade that would have been lost to the sands of time if not for the fact that they acquired future Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber. Kluber was a no-nothing prospect for the Padres at the time but, as we all know so very well, he would develop into one of the best starters in baseball with the Indians. The next important year is 2014. During the waiver wire period following the trade deadline, the Indians acquired Mike Clevinger from the Angels for Vinnie Pestano. Like Kluber, Clevinger was not much of a prospect at the time. He finished 2014 with an ERA of 4.41 in the minors but continued to improve. These days we all know Clevinger as another frustratingly good pitcher for the Indians. The essential string that ties together all five pitchers (Rijo, Duran, Vallimont, Kluber, and Clevinger) is that they were all acquired as minor leaguers in trades with other teams. To pin every single one of these deals (especially the ones in Cleveland) on Falvey alone would be incorrect. Front offices have about 100 positions with titles that sound quite similar to each other so any move made by a team had the input of a great number of minds beforehand. Yet, it is fair to say that Falvey played some role in the moves made in Cleveland and he undoubtedly has brought his pitching knowledge over to the Twins. Part of this knowledge has been applied to major league squad as a number of pitchers had career seasons in 2019. The system of development as a whole has been cleaned up also which has helped players like Randy Dobnak, Zack Littell, and Cody Stashak to hold their own at the major league level. But this knowledge can be applied to pitchers outside of the organization as well. The Astros, cheating aside, have found great success in finding value in under-performing major league pitchers. They steal them, pump them full of numbers, and then spit out a deadly machine of nastiness. The Twins may be taking a slightly different route in acquiring high upside minor leaguers and then developing them from within. This strategy is much more in line with how the Indians built their past dominant starting rotations. Kluber, Clevinger, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco were all not drafted by the Indians yet they all found their footing with them. Ultimately, this form of predicting success is still a crapshoot. Just because it happened before to other starters does not immediately make every pitcher the Twins acquire a future ace. It does make those pitchers very interesting prospects to keep track of. Because if someone who has an eye for talent likes a certain player, then perhaps that player might be someone to keep tabs on. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here
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The metaphorical ball of “starting the season” has been in motion for quite some time now. From literally Trevor Plouffe breaking rumors to the newest war between the players and the owners, the gears of North American baseball are slowly turning. There are numerous implications and details that will need to be ironed out before the season can officially begin. One of those questions; how will the trade deadline work in a short season?The trade deadline has been the backbone of in-season improvements for teams for years now. Every season the trade deadline forces teams to admit their problems and fix them with additions or surrender the rest of the season. You, the reader and baseball fan who wasn’t born yesterday, already knew this, so how will it be different this season? The timing of the old trade deadline was essentially perfect. It sits at just over 100 games into the season which provides each franchise with ample time to diagnose where their team is and scout which players they want to target. The competitors can get a feel for which player will best help them going forward and the bottom-feeders can target the prospects they want. A shortened season throws all of this out of the window. If Plouffe is correct, then the start of the season and the old trade deadline would both exist in the same month. This would be an incredibly small sample size that doesn’t give enough time to evaluate talent. Want an example? The ERA leader in MLB last season before May was Zach Davies. Yeah, for real. Cody Bellinger was hitting .431 before May. Small samples can get funky. Or even consider the Twins last season. Michael Pineda had an ERA of 6.21 going into May and Marwin González had an OBP of .244. Both players eventually turned it around and had fine seasons but if the trade deadline was early, then the Twins might have traded for replacements for those players. That sample size would just be far too small to be fair for anyone. Instead, they could push the deadline back a month so that it would be on the last day of August. Doing this allows for slightly more breathing room and the opportunity for a fairer evaluation. There were still some ridiculous numbers last year over a similar sample size like how Jorge Polanco was 10th in baseball in slugging % going into June. But there were also some numbers that remained fairly accurate such as the Twins’ team wRC+ going into June being 120 and their end-of-season wRC+ being 116. It isn’t unrealistic to have MLB cancel the trade deadline altogether. Along with the sample size problems, forcing a player to move to an entirely different city while the pandemic remains to exist seems like an unwise decision. It would make the season less dramatic but MLB appears to be taking a “we take what we can get” method to having baseball in 2020. If that includes eliminating the trade deadline for a season, then so be it. It will just be another factor that makes this year unlike any other MLB season. The long and short of it is that we’re going to see some weird stuff this season. If that includes a trade deadline that would barely be after 1/3 of the season in any other year, then that will have to be the reality. If that includes there being no trade deadline, then that will have to be the reality as well. The trade deadline is just a small part of what makes the baseball season great so it may be subdued, delayed, or abandoned for the betterment of major league baseball and its participants. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article
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The trade deadline has been the backbone of in-season improvements for teams for years now. Every season the trade deadline forces teams to admit their problems and fix them with additions or surrender the rest of the season. You, the reader and baseball fan who wasn’t born yesterday, already knew this, so how will it be different this season? The timing of the old trade deadline was essentially perfect. It sits at just over 100 games into the season which provides each franchise with ample time to diagnose where their team is and scout which players they want to target. The competitors can get a feel for which player will best help them going forward and the bottom-feeders can target the prospects they want. A shortened season throws all of this out of the window. If Plouffe is correct, then the start of the season and the old trade deadline would both exist in the same month. This would be an incredibly small sample size that doesn’t give enough time to evaluate talent. Want an example? The ERA leader in MLB last season before May was Zach Davies. Yeah, for real. Cody Bellinger was hitting .431 before May. Small samples can get funky. Or even consider the Twins last season. Michael Pineda had an ERA of 6.21 going into May and Marwin González had an OBP of .244. Both players eventually turned it around and had fine seasons but if the trade deadline was early, then the Twins might have traded for replacements for those players. That sample size would just be far too small to be fair for anyone. Instead, they could push the deadline back a month so that it would be on the last day of August. Doing this allows for slightly more breathing room and the opportunity for a fairer evaluation. There were still some ridiculous numbers last year over a similar sample size like how Jorge Polanco was 10th in baseball in slugging % going into June. But there were also some numbers that remained fairly accurate such as the Twins’ team wRC+ going into June being 120 and their end-of-season wRC+ being 116. It isn’t unrealistic to have MLB cancel the trade deadline altogether. Along with the sample size problems, forcing a player to move to an entirely different city while the pandemic remains to exist seems like an unwise decision. It would make the season less dramatic but MLB appears to be taking a “we take what we can get” method to having baseball in 2020. If that includes eliminating the trade deadline for a season, then so be it. It will just be another factor that makes this year unlike any other MLB season. The long and short of it is that we’re going to see some weird stuff this season. If that includes a trade deadline that would barely be after 1/3 of the season in any other year, then that will have to be the reality. If that includes there being no trade deadline, then that will have to be the reality as well. The trade deadline is just a small part of what makes the baseball season great so it may be subdued, delayed, or abandoned for the betterment of major league baseball and its participants. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here
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Almost weekly now, a leak from a media source provides baseball fans with inside knowledge on how the league may plan to play the season. These plans must be made as the normal rhythm of the baseball season cannot exist in this new reality. No one wants to face the implications of a heavily postponed (or cancelled) season. The consequences for MLB will be strong, but the ramifications for the minors present different issues.The most apparent impact from lost games will be the missing time for prospects to develop. They simply won’t be able to play the games needed to establish themselves at whatever level they are at or improve. The good news is that the advancements in technology for player development will lessen the blow somewhat as players can still train in the ways the team wants. But, technology can only take a player so far. The in-game experience of performing under pressure is a crucial component that will be missed. This will also likely change the timeline for prospects such as Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis who were probably set to debut in September. Now, depending on how many games they can actually fit in, the most likely outcome is that they’ll make their first major league appearance in 2021. A player like Jhoan Duran who is on the 40-man roster may find himself in a situation where his timeline isn’t altered as the team might need to call upon him for help down the stretch. If games are expedited, then the merry-go-round of arms on the 40-man roster will only move faster. In fact, the team most affected by this will probably be the AAA Rochester Red Wings. MLB rosters will be expanded and these extra spots will go to pitchers like Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak who were tweeners to make the MLB roster. That leaves the Red Wings in a position where they’ll need arms either from Pensacola or in the form of minor league free agent deals. If they do decide to pluck from a team under them then it will be a cascading effect of teams needing pitchers from the level beneath them. Maybe instead there will be a run on veteran minor leaguers such as Jhoulys Chacín who will provide crucial depth to uncertain teams. Of course, the most extreme option of cancelling the minor league system renders most everything void. This may be a reality as any plan to jumpstart the major league season will prove to be even more difficult to implement in the minors, and the scenarios crawling out regarding the major league season are already flimsy. Beyond the financial loss felt by already struggling minor league teams, the players would bear an even more brutal reality. The best case for some (if they are a well-regarded) prospect will be that they lost a season of development. The less well-off players may have to quit the game altogether as the loss of an already insubstantial paycheck could prove to be too strong of a burden. No matter what happens, the infrastructure of the minor leagues will be tested in 2020. The battle between the minors and sustainability has already been rough as 40 teams will soon face the chopping block. The surviving teams will now have to endure an even more aggressive shuffling of players, lost development time for players, and the potential loss of talent all across the minor league system. It’s a tough reality for an association already in dire straits and this impact will undoubtedly be felt in the major league seasons in 2020 and beyond. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article
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The most apparent impact from lost games will be the missing time for prospects to develop. They simply won’t be able to play the games needed to establish themselves at whatever level they are at or improve. The good news is that the advancements in technology for player development will lessen the blow somewhat as players can still train in the ways the team wants. But, technology can only take a player so far. The in-game experience of performing under pressure is a crucial component that will be missed. This will also likely change the timeline for prospects such as Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis who were probably set to debut in September. Now, depending on how many games they can actually fit in, the most likely outcome is that they’ll make their first major league appearance in 2021. A player like Jhoan Duran who is on the 40-man roster may find himself in a situation where his timeline isn’t altered as the team might need to call upon him for help down the stretch. If games are expedited, then the merry-go-round of arms on the 40-man roster will only move faster. In fact, the team most affected by this will probably be the AAA Rochester Red Wings. MLB rosters will be expanded and these extra spots will go to pitchers like Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak who were tweeners to make the MLB roster. That leaves the Red Wings in a position where they’ll need arms either from Pensacola or in the form of minor league free agent deals. If they do decide to pluck from a team under them then it will be a cascading effect of teams needing pitchers from the level beneath them. Maybe instead there will be a run on veteran minor leaguers such as Jhoulys Chacín who will provide crucial depth to uncertain teams. Of course, the most extreme option of cancelling the minor league system renders most everything void. This may be a reality as any plan to jumpstart the major league season will prove to be even more difficult to implement in the minors, and the scenarios crawling out regarding the major league season are already flimsy. Beyond the financial loss felt by already struggling minor league teams, the players would bear an even more brutal reality. The best case for some (if they are a well-regarded) prospect will be that they lost a season of development. The less well-off players may have to quit the game altogether as the loss of an already insubstantial paycheck could prove to be too strong of a burden. No matter what happens, the infrastructure of the minor leagues will be tested in 2020. The battle between the minors and sustainability has already been rough as 40 teams will soon face the chopping block. The surviving teams will now have to endure an even more aggressive shuffling of players, lost development time for players, and the potential loss of talent all across the minor league system. It’s a tough reality for an association already in dire straits and this impact will undoubtedly be felt in the major league seasons in 2020 and beyond. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here
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Should The Twins Target Trevor Bauer?
Matt Braun replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Alright, I want to add one more comment. First, I want to apologize for being unclear on what I meant regarding the statement on his political statements. I did not mean to imply that being a Trump supporter was something I was concerned with. My intention was to use his comments about birtherism as an example of how clubhouse chemistry may be affected by his vocal personality. I found this to be important as clubhouse chemistry is a topic that the Twins have been greatly concerned with and the team was notoriously poor in that regards in 2018 thanks to a few sour grapes in Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn. That was the intention of my comment and I would like to apologize for not making that clear. -
It has become apparent with each offseason that the front office headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine is nothing like the ones from before. The team has finally expanded their reach in free agency over the last few seasons. Players who would previously never have been considered realistic targets for the team such as Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson have made their way up north to bring their talents to the Twin Cities. Could the next big move be acquiring Trevor Bauer?The free agent market for starting pitchers next year isn’t quite a desert but it could be a distant cousin of one. The market lacks the big flashy names of last offseason that saw Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Zack Wheeler become available. Instead, this offseason’s market will be littered with assorted #2 guys at best in players like Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, and Jake Odorizzi. All are fine pitchers but more as complementary pieces to a rotation that already has a bona-fide stud leading the way. The Twins may have that guy in José Berríos but the fact that that is a disputed take among Twins fans speaks to the idea that he isn’t quite at that studly level yet. Bauer, however, has been at that level. Using fWAR, his 2018 season (5.8 fWAR) would be the second best season by a Twins starter over the last decade. Part of that is due to the Twins’ inability to develop a starting pitcher of value for much of that time, but that’s why free agency exists in the first place. Can’t develop them? Then go buy them. Beyond Bauer’s on-field ability, his work with Driveline Baseball and desire to push the pitching meta of baseball as far as it can go would essentially make him an extra pitching coach in the dugout. In fact, it was this quality that connected Bauer and Derek Falvey when Falvey was with the Indians who had plucked the pitcher from the Diamondbacks. The familiarity is already there. Now, the thing about Bauer is that you’re getting more than just his ability. Bauer is one of the more outspoken players in baseball and comes with an eccentric personality. Unfortunately, this also comes with political statements that will not be specified for the purpose of focusing on strictly baseball, but can be found with a Google search. This is where the prospect of trading for Bauer becomes hazy. Yes, he would undoubtedly make the team better, but should we advocate for acquiring talent over all else? Do we not also want to be rooting for the best people possible or is it “just win baby”? If you only value the product on the field, then Bauer should absolutely be your first target on the free agent market. His ability combined with his playoff experience will make him a top target for most teams but the Twins could be an attractive choice given the Falvey connection and their contention window. Netting him would stabilize a rotation that will likely lose Jake Odorizzi in free agency but will have Berríos, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda returning. If Bauer is absolutely off the table for you, then you will likely have to settle for either one of the aforementioned second-tier starters or a Maeda-type through trade (maybe Syndergaard will be cheap coming off TJ surgery). You’d also be justified in using his on-field performance on top of his antics off the field as his reason for avoiding him. He has merely been a passable starter outside his monster 2018 campaign (his second lowest season ERA is 4.18). That number is much more in line with the Robbie Rays and Mike Minors of the world who will also be available and probably less sought after. This will likely be the turmoil that both the fans and front office members face next offseason. The starting pitching need will still likely be obvious and they may not want to deal another top prospect like they did to acquire Maeda. Bauer will be the top free agent option available and signing him would, on paper, likely push them even further into being World Series contenders. Is that worth it? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Matt Braun on Twitter here Click here to view the article

