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Wade offers a potential elite defensive OF _______________________________________________________________ I want to push back against the notion that Wade can't play CF. He definitely can, he's a great defender who's only made 2 errors at the position in hundreds of games at the minor league level. He's got great defensive instincts and is fast enough cover a ton of ground and can make every catch you want from your CF. I would argue that his CF defense wouldn't be that unlike Denard Span's who's a great CF, but also deals with the shortfalls that come with having a weak arm. Span has largely played CF because he's good enough to do it and because there is only a handful of times a season when Span's lack of arm strength compared to a CF with elite arm strength will hurt you. Span has also rotated between OF spots at times, partly because of this very reason. It is true that ideally Wade plays LF, but in the same way that Brett Gardner plays LF. Having a LF with Wade's type of instincts, speed, and defensive ability provides a lot of value. Further, on this Twins team...pairing Wade and Buxton together in an OF would immediately make the Twins OF if not the best fielding OF in the league, arguably the best--both because of Wade's defensive ability and also by replacing Rosario's negative defensive value and moving him to DH. This alone would have a cascading effect that helps out our pitchers and leads to lower runs against per game. Wade in LF next to Buxton offers not just passable defense, but elite defense from a LF. We've seen the way Buxton is able to generate value from the defensive side of the game...and obviously Buxton is much better and plays a much more important position, but the combination of defensive potential that those two would offer the team would be extremely positive. _______________________________________________________________ Wade has been a plus plus hitter at the minor league level _______________________________________________________________ Also in regards to a lack of power, it's true that Wade isn't going to hit a lot of HRs or even hit an elite amount of XBH's. But we're talking about a guy with a career .820 OPS at the AA level and a wRC of 130. Wade may not be a power hitter, but he certainly is an extremely positive offensive producer. While Wade isn't a huge basestealer, he's an extremely good baserunner and maximizes his value on that side of the game by using his speed to take extra bases leading to lots of runs. In almost a full season at AA, Wade is going to score 100 runs. While Wade may not by Buxton on the base paths, he is similar to a younger Brian Dozier. A guy who was a really smart baserunner who was continually annoying opposing pitchers by looking for every opportunity to take extra bases, get good jumps, and steal bases when the opponent isn't watching closely. Dozier was one of the best baserunners in the league not because of blazing speed, but because base running is a skill--a skill that Wade definitely has. Further, as a leadoff hitter Wade is on pace to drive in 90 runs at the AA level. We're talking about a guy that is an extremely tough out and always puts the ball in play using all fields driving in runners in scoring positions. It's not easy to drive in 90 runs from the leadoff position, especially when you aren't hitting a ton of XBH's or homeruns. But even when saying that, it's marginalizing Wade's ability to hit the ball. We're not talking about Ben Revere here. It's completely within Wade's abilities and track record, should he be able to translate his minor league numbers to the pros, to expect 25 doubles, 5 triples, and approaching 15 HRs. While these aren't huge numbers in terms of driving the ball, Wade definitely can drive the ball and isn't purely a singles hitter who can't hit the ball out of the infield. The nice thing about Wade's offensive style is that there isn't anything about it that shouldn't translate to the majors. Guys who have success at the minor league level without big power numbers and don't translate it to the majors are guys who's contact skills are not good enough to play against major league pitching. Wade's best skill aside from his eye at the plate is his contact skills. Striking out is more rare for him than Joe Mauer striking out. He's gonna put the ball in play and he's gonna not try and do too much with pitches if it isn't a pitch to try and do too much too. While this leads to lots of singles and non-flashy hits it's also an easily repeatable skill, even against higher levels of competition. If a hitter has an extremely good eye and command of the plate and works pitchers deep into counts by not swinging at pitches outside the zone and getting themselves out or guessing and making weak contact against a pitch, rarely swings and misses and has an elite hand-eye coordination ability to put the bat on the ball, and doesn't try and do too much with pitches taking what the pitcher gives him...it doesnt matter what kind of stuff a pitcher has (to a degree). Further, Wade can drive the ball a little bit...it's not the cruxt of his game, but not a non-factor in his game. If pitchers make a mistake Wade can make them pay. He's not a speedy slap hitter beating out infield singles and hitting flares into the shallow OF. _______________________________________________________________ Hitters Wade compares too _______________________________________________________________ Hitters at the major league level that Wade's metrics compare most closely towards are guys like Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, DJ Lehmehaui, and Lorenzo Cain when trying to look for guys with a high obp, medium high avg, teen homeruns, and XBH's in the high 20/low 30 range (Looking at 2017's MLB stats) Posey and Mauer are probably the closest comps. While Posey offers more HR power and Mauer offers more doubles power...there are only a few guys that can match the kind of approach that Wade shows at the minor league level. There are only a handful of MLB players that have a BB% of 14+ and a K% of 14-15 or under. These are guys like Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner and only a handful of others. Basically guys known as the hardest outs in the game. _______________________________________________________________ I wish I could make it clear how hard it is to be a below average pitcher if you've got this kind of approach at the plate, ability to get on base, ability to make contact and put the ball in play, and ability and willingness to use all fields. Wade isn't just his ability to get on base a bunch by taking a ton of walks. He's also a good hitter. There are guys, like Grossman, that have this type of approach skill...but they aren't good hitters. Needless to say, they get on base enough usually to make up for it...but Grossman's gonna struggle to hit .250 and when he does swing he's not a good enough hitter to make contact like Wade can...which is why Grossman's strikeout numbers are so high. Wade's approach is great, but his ability with a bat is also good. Great defensive OF play and the potential runs that a Buxton/Wade duo will save, plus really good baserunning value (extra bases gained), plus elite ability to get on base, plus a solid ability to make contact and hit the ball to all fields and hit for average. Wade isn't the perfect player and there are things that he can't do. In turn these are things that you are going to have to get from the rest of your lineup. But there are a ton of things he can do that other hitters can't and a lot of teams are missing and could use in their lineups. ____________________________________________________________________________ Don't sleep on this guy Twins fans.

Are we talking A+ or AA? Lewis (19 -- 20 in June) and Kirillof (20 -- 21 in Nov) at AA this quickly must be more than the Twins could even expect. Both guys could get 100 games and if the success continues, start at AAA sometime early in the 2019-20 season. Do you see the Twins moving Wade up to AAA when these two are moved up to AA?

I actually just made a post about him. He's been my guy for a year plus or now. I'm extremely high on guys that can command a plate appearance, get on base, and make contact in the way he's been able to with almost shocking consistency in his numbers at every level so far. He's gonna fly under the radar and he has and a lack of skillset with a potential superstar ceiling is gonna keep him from being talked about, but I will really be surprised if he doesn't outperform the #4 OF monicker given to him. Look at the career Grossman's been able to carve out for himself with this same type of trait as his most elite skill. This is despite Grossman being below average on the base paths and not being able to field a position positively. Grossman has even less of a hit tool than Wade has shown at similar levels and even if the hit tool is similar, Wade packages it with much fewer strikeouts, plus speed, positive baserunning value, and arguably plus defense at any OF position. If Wade is a Grossman clone with the bat, but has a bigger package with the speed, defense, and more contact...I can't see how that skillset doesn't play up even further than Grossman has been able to make it do. Further, in a modern MLB with rising strikeout numbers, fewer guys being able to hit for average, and even get on base. Wade's skillset is one that many teams are going to desperately try and seek and one that's a relatively scarce in the current market. Put it this way, there's tons of guys who can hit 20 HRs and 20-25 XBH to a degree that's never been seen before in the MLB. There was a time when this skillset was scarce and guys who could offer this were extremely sought after. Now 40 HR guys struggle to get signed and have to sign short term prove it deals for low AAVs (Logan Morrison). Modern MLB teams, the Twins included, are full of guys that can hit 40-50 extra bases and drive in tons of runs--but what they lack are guys that can get on base at somewhere close to a .380-.400 clip and also have speed. Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Dozier, and even Buxton if he returns to last year's numbers or basically the heart of the Twins lineup are all going to go for 40+ extra base hits...they're stuck throwing Mauer out in the leadoff spot or underutilizing Dozier's power. This is a skillset that the Twins and many teams want and Wade provides. The pitching will get tougher as Wade goes to AAA and the majors, but BB% numbers and the ability to command an at bat skill that Wade provides should allow him to continue to steadily provide a .275-.295 average and .370-.400 OBP. This ability along with speed to maximize bases while on base should allow Wade to be an extremely valuable player for a team even if he only hits 25 doubles, 4-5 triples, 10 HRs, and 15 SBs...which seems to be pretty much his floor in my eyes. Wade might not have a high ceiling or even a ceiling much higher than that (think 30 doubles, 5 3Bs, 15 HRs, 15 SBs), but he's gonna get on base a TON and score a TON of runs. You can't build your team around him, but adding him to a lineup with run producers in place--he's the perfect asset to maximize your run producers skillsets. That's all Wade is and isn't and I can't see him really being more or less than a guy who puts up those kinds of numbers--he might even be closer to the floor I listed. He's gonna help a team out big time.

I definitely agree on the BB%, getting that walk rate from ~6 range to the 8-10 range would be big for him. I do agree to that he's riding a high BABIP and that he's not gonna keep performing like this through the rest of the season--110+ XBH and 155+ RBIs per 162 games is a ridiculous pace. (If he does we might have the future GOAT on our hands). But I will push back a little bit on the BABIP measure, it's likely that he is operating with some luck, but power hitters who hit the ball as hard as he seemingly does and get a ton of XBH do carry higher BABIP's than the league average. Just for comparision some of the other names thrown around in threads trying to compare his development to--Oswaldo Arica, Jason Kubel, Miguel Sano, Justin Morneau, even Kennys Vargas--all of these are power hitting prospects that have developed through the Twins system over the previous years. All of these carries BABIP's in the mid-300's...especially at the lower level. If Kirillof is near these guys level in terms of a power prospect, carrying a BABIP in the .320-.360 range, again especially at the lower levels of the minors, wouldn't be by any means out of the norm. Kirillof's BABIP in rookie ball was .328 in 55 games, while this year its at .348...84 games through his minor league career Kirillof is carrying a BABIP of about .335. That's even towards the lower end of the BABIP's some of those power prospects carrying for longer stretches of time in the (especially in the low) minors. Now we'll see if Kirillof develops on the level that many of those prospects did, but if he is the kind of guy that early returns are trending him towards...we're talking about a guy who BABIP's below .315 or .320 probably mean he's going through periods of bad luck as opposed to fortune despite that number being well above the league average of .300. We'll see and again I fully expect regression, but again power prospects (Mike Trout's BABIP was closer to .400 then .350 in the minors. Bryce Harper's was about .340. Even Eddie Rosario was in the .320-.330 range with seasons well above that) I'm not comparing Kirillof to Harper or Trout, but important context when understanding his BABIP likely means expecting it to be .320 or .330 plus. Further, especially for a guy like Kirillof that uses all fields well and lets his natural power carry the ball to the entire field (2018: 39 pull - 31 center - 30 opposite field Rookie: 41 pull - 19 center - 40 opposite field) With that kind of approach, one would expect less at bats in which Kirillof gets himself out by trying to pull a ball on the outside part of the plate or something such as that. This is one of the bigger positive indicators in my mind that Kirillof will not only hit for power, but should also hit for a decent average. I expect the 85 2B + 3B pace per 162 to come down, but probably in exchange for singles more often than outs. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him finish .330ish+ in the BABIP department. ______________________________________________________________________________________ He currently has 22 doubles, 3 3Bs, 12 HRs, 60 rbi's, .334 BABIP in 84 career minor league games (23 hr, 42 2B, 5 3B, 116 RBI pace). I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him finish at per game production levels similar to that. The biggest thing for me is that I'd like to see in the BB%, at about 5.8% this year and about 4.8% his initial stint in rookie ball. He seems to swing away and it hasn't at all hurt him yet--especially with his willingness to use all parts of the field. But at higher levels this seemingly could hurt him if he doesn't increase this rate. I do believe to some extent this metric and the type of approach at the plate that a high BB% or low BB% indicates is something that either a player has or doesn't. I don't think there are many players that go from one extreme to the other. Kirillof isn't Rosario walk avoidant levels, but he isn't all that far off. I'm not sure he'll ever be a guy that has an above average BB% nearing or above 10%, but hopefully he can get to 7 or 8% which should indicate enough of a certain type of approach at the plate that won't negatively effect him at higher levels. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Other than that small tweak, I can't state enough how much I like what I see and how much I think Twins fans should be positive about this guy. His success at A ball, if it continues, suggests that the Twins, if they want, could choose to move him up a level or two to A+ or AA to see how he handles it during the second half of this year. In my opinion orginazations should give players as much as they can chew especially if they haven't yet shown they can't handle it. If they continue to show they can handle higher levels of competition at a younger age than expected, than that bodes extremely well from them as a prospect. If they don't, well I think it's good for hitters to know their weaknesses that can be exploited at higher leves as early as possible. I don't think a little adversity is harmful negatively on a long-term basis, this does depend a little bit on the makeup of the prospect, but Kirilloff to me in interviews I've read shows a really mature demeanour and one of his touted strengths is his baseball IQ. I hope Kirilloff gets a chance at AA should his success continue, even it's just 10, 15, or 20 games near the end of the season. This should allow him to start next season at AA and put him in really good company and on a really good trend towards future major league success. Now with that being said, it's hard to remember that Kirilloff is only 20 years old, with only 29 games out of rookie ball coming off a Tommy John injury and a year away from competitive baseball. I would understand the orginization being careful and cautious with him. But I would argue that until he gives you a reason to be this way then you're envisioning things in your head that might not and probably aren't even there. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, I couldn't be more excited that the Twins have seemingly hit on a big natural power bat who's power comes not from launch angle changes or approach switches to cheat and pull more balls, but naturally through driving the ball where it's pitched. I think that's an extremely strong skillset and formula to success at higher levels and eventually the majors. The Twins are going to have some really interesting orginzational decisions on their hands over the next 2-3 years. I think both Kirilloff and Lamonte Wade are going to be big-time players that have a major league skillset that the team is really intigued with having in their lineup. Where these guys fit in with Rosario, Kepler, and Buxton I'm not sure. I think there's room for both if you want to get creative with Rosario at DH, Kirillof at 1st, and Wade in LF. But I'm also not sure the Twins will be comfortable with Sano at 3rd long-term--if not for his defensive issues which I personally think are overblown, but because of his inability to stay healthy both playing in the field and hitting over a full-season. If that's the case, then Kepler (or possibly Rosario) could be an extremely interesting trade candidate that could fetch a pretty good return on a future position of need. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Regardless, I haven't been this excited for a Twins prospect group since Berrios/Buxton/Sano/Polanco/Rosario/Kepler were all in this position of being 1-2-3 years away from the majors. It's a testament to the Twins drafting and development that they've been able to stack groups of prospects of this kind of talent back to back in the way that they have. Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Wade, Romero, Gonsalves, Graterol just might be as impactful if not more as the above group has turned out to be.

That's really encouraging. It seems the power is real and an advanced hitting approach developed from a young age suggests he drives the ball with power to all fields and doesn't rely on trying to pull everything over the fence. Maybe won't hit as many HRs as he could if he tried to pull everything, but he'll get lots of XBH, a higher average, and plenty of HRs too. Maybe Justin Morneau could be a similar comp? Too lofty to hope for, but in terms of their styles. Morneau's average 162 game stretch was: .280-.350-.830 37 2B - 2 3B - 26 HR - 103 RBIs Some positionality differences and such, but Morneau was a guy with big time natural power who never really gave up on driving the ball to left-right center and using all parts of the field. Topped out around 30 HRs though had the potential for more...tons of XBH and generally Morneau hit for a pretty nice average...he certainly developed himself into a guy that was able to at least.

Insane numbers for Kirilloff season-wide. Season-wide slash: .303/.344/.915 Pace Per 162: 85 runs - 73 2B - 11 3B - 28 HR -150 rbi What an amazing first 29 games for the guy!! Playing at that high of a level for about 20% of a minor league season is seriously impressive! It would be extremely hard to keep that pace up for an entire season, but 20 XBH, 27RBIs, and a +.300 batting average in 29 games is crazy good! You're right, he started slow too, 1 for his first 12! Since then (26 games), he's hitting: Slash line: .327-.371-.997 Per 162: 94 runs - 81 2Bs - 12 3B - 32 HR - 168 RBI It's extremely hard to be over an RBI a game for an entire month and Kirillof accomplished that (April 9 - May 14). I love how he has natural power too, he's not a huge pull guy or anything like that...his hit chart is a pretty even spread across all fields and he can go deep left-center/going the other way. Should mean tons of positive things for him. ________________________________________________________________________________ He keeps anything close to this up for the rest of the season and Royce Lewis might have to watch out for the best position prospect moniker, positionality value be damned! ________________________________________________________________________________ Really really impressed with the numbers our top guys are putting up universally across the board--Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, Gordon, Kirillof, Graterol, Badoo are all doing big things across various levels in the Twins system! Not sure I've remembered this many guys with this kind of talent all going this well at once before. (With apologies to Javier, Rooker, Enlow...but you can't have everything)

More cool Escobar stats. In games in which Escobar is a starter for the Twins since he became a regular in 2014 (492g and 1680 ABs in this sample): ****(I filtered out some of 2016 and left out 2013 in which he played as a utility/bench player/injury fill in/spot starter which seems to affect his numbers negatively a little bit, see 2013 and 2016. He's not as effective of a hitter thus far in his career in this role without consistent PT and role) Escobar's 162 game pace/per game production numbers are as follows: .270avg - .315ops - .437 slg - .752ops 70 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 17 HR - 70 RBI - 36BB - 112K -6.5 BB% - 20.3 K% ________________________________________________________________________________ Looking at the average OPS by position in 2015-2017 Escobar's OPS (.755) over this time span would rank: --10th in SS OPS --15th in 2B OPS (Dozier's 2016/17 .886 & .856 ranked 4th for reference) --15-18th in 3B OPS Looking at the average OPS by position using Escobar's OPS (.800) in his last 159 games (seemingly his prime): --5th-8th in SS OPS --8th-10th in 2B OPS --10-12th in 3B OPS _________________________________________________________________________________ Thoughts-- I don't think Escobar is quite as good as the second measure suggests, his .877 OPS this season is well above his previous career highs of .758 and .754. I do think it's fair to conclude that Escobar is at least a .750-.760 OPS guy now in his prime. Has he truly taken another step forward this year and if so how far so? Escobar's value can't be undersold, offering solid to plus defense at 3 infield positions, while offering a roughly league average bat at 3B and SS and a borderline top 10 bat at SS is hard really nice for a player that not many expected to perform at this high of a level. As an aside, it's kind of cool to see the tiers in hitting talent between 2B, SS, and 3B. SS is clearly the weakest position for hitting, it also has the largest variance--Escobar's .800 OPS going back further past 2015 ranked anywhere from 1-12 depending on the year--since 2015 the MLB SS position has gotten a lot better with that bat and Escobar's OPS falls back to somewhere between 5th and 10th on average depending on the year. I was surpised by the amount of hitting talent at the 2B position, there are a lot of good hitters here and it's no longer really a weak hitting position like it used to be. It seems that teams hide their weak-fielding MI prospects with bats here to some extent--which makes sense. Again, not a surprise but there are tons of good hitters at 3rd base--Escobar's .800 OPS struggled to crack the top 10 on average. ________________________________________________________________________________ My conclusion from this analysis is that Escobar is a really good player, likely peaking as we currently watch him, who's probably a top 10 or borderline top 10 SS right now. Impressively, Escobar's current .877 OPS ranks him 6th behind a bunch of big names--he's having a borderline top 5 season for a SS currently. His real value comes from his ability to play SS, his glove doesn't matter nearly as much at SS or 2B and his bat doesn't play quite enough to be worth it to block Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon from playing time should things go right. I can see them bringing Escobar back, but only if Polanco falters returing from suspension, they decide to move Sano to full time DH, or Escobar continues to hit with a ops well above .800. _________________________________________________________________________________ Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon should have a shot to take over the group in 2019 Aside from a 16 game stretch in July of 2017 in which Polanco went 2-47, in 117 games and over 441 Polanco at age 23 put up a 162 game pace numbers of: .280 avg - .333obp - .780 ops - 9.3 BB% - 15 K% 75 runs - 40 2B - 4 3B - 18 HR - 103 RBI - 17 SB That's after putting up a 22 season with pace numbers of: .282 - .333 - .757 56 runs - 35 2B - 10 3B - 10 HR - 65 RBI - 10 SB Escobar's production and age is not worth blocking Polanco from a chance to win the spot. The sample is enhanced a little bit to remove a slump, doing so for any player will make their numbers look much better, however Polanco's 1st half of 2017 was associated by some of the worst luck peripherals in the MLB last year despite hitting the ball extremely hard. It's likely that his true talent level is something close to this level if not higher. Further, Nick Gordon at 22 years of age has 158 GP at the AA level and has put up a line of: .287- .352 -.785 - 9.5 BB% - 23.8 K% 98 runs - 38 2B - 11 3B - 12 HR - 84 RBI - 18 SB We'll see if Gordon can replicate these types of numbers at the MLB level, but the beginning of 2019 should or could be the time the Twins give him a chance to break into the majors. Even if this move costs the Twins in the immediate short term of the 2019 season as Gordon gets settled--it should pay off in the long term. Especially with even strong MI prospects pushing at Gordon's heels. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Escobar will turn 30 at the beginning of next season and while it's unlikely that he'll drop off in produciton in the next 2 or 3 years, he's currently at the peak of his production. During his contract he's provided incredible value for the Twins and has been an extremely valuable player. But his value comes from his above-average bat/defense combo at the SS. Escobar's bat doesn't play nearly as well at 2B or 3B . Unfortunately neither Gordon nor Polanco possess the arm to play 3B. Further, their bats don't play as well as they do in the MI. The most surefire scenario in which the Twins retain Escobar is asking him to take over 3B duties, meaning that Miguel Sano's days fielding that position are numbered--which they might be. If Miguel Sano is asked to transition towards a full-time DH or a full-time 1B/DH...the Twins don't have much immediate system help at 3B and will likely retain Escobar for the near future. However this move would likely come at the cost or expense of a player like Joe Mauer and the Twins might be reluctant to choose Escobar over Mauer. I do hope that the Twins keep Escobar, but not at the expense of Polanco or Gordon's chances. Moving Escobar to 3B and splitting Sano between 3B, 1B, and DH along with Mauer at 1B and DH could be the best way to get all of these players in the lineup. It will be interesting to see what choices the Twins make.

I'm worried about Rooker, but the sample size is small and I'm not sure he's been quite as bad as the numbers appear--he was 0-11 with 7 K's his first 3 games, but has been marginally better since then. He's realistically within a couple week hot streak away of salvaging a respectable season. In those 31 games his slash is .240/.280/.670 and his strikeout to walk ratio is 33/6 K/BB. A strikeout a game is a little on the high side, but it feels a lot better than 40 in 34. Further, a 162 game pace for those 31 games would give him a game production projection of about 65 runs - 37 2B - 5 3B - 16 HR - 65 rbi. I'm most concerned about the drop in walk rate, I doubt the power is gone and he's hitting a decent number of extra base hits, but I'm not sure where the approach went. Hopefully he has a big second half. ___________________________________________________________________ I like Badoo's approach, I'm generally a fan of that kind of approach. I think there's value in making pitchers work, getting them deep into counts, and getting more opportunities for a mistake instead of swinging at a pitch that isn't the pitch you're looking for when you've got strikes to play with. High strikeout totals can be worrying, but context matters--if the strikeout totals are a result of going deep into counts and he strikes out after 5-6-7 pitches I'm fine with that. More often than not those kind of ABs are leading to a walk, a hitter's pitch to hit, and there's value to making a pitcher throw a lot of pitchers both for your own ability to hit a pitcher, but also for your teammates. So, not all strikeouts are created equal. I'm wondering where the extra base hit power has gone. For a guy that young and raw I'm not expecting a ton of home runs even if the projection is there to add some as he matures, but it would be nice to see him barrelling more balls and putting them in the gaps. After having 19 2Bs, 5 3Bs, and 4 HRs in just 53 games at Rookie Ball...there's some more there. He's getting on base a ton 22.6% walk rate and scoring almost a run per game and on pace to steal 40+ bases. Crazy that almost 54% of his plate appearances right now are ending in a strikeout or a walk. I'm sure that will normalize somewhere less to the extremes on both cases, but he's now drawn 82 walks in 118 games (16.6 BB%)--the eye is there. I don't think you can coach a guy out of that really if he likes to take pitches and work counts. Cool player. Excited to see what happens.

In parts of 2 seasons at AA Wade's been pretty consistently putting up some really impressive numbers--especially in terms of his ability to manage an at-bat, work deep into counts, draw walks, and make contact. ____________________________________________________________________________ Offense ____________________________________________________________________________ In 150 games as the leadoff hitter during the previous 2 seasons at AA here are Wade's stats: 661 PA - 545 ABs - 160 hits .294 avg - .398 obp - .810 ops 22 2B - 4 3B - 12 HRs 93 runs - 82 RBI - 13 SB 96 BB - 82 K ____________________________________________________________________________ Defense ____________________________________________________________________________ Speed (50) – Wade is an excellent athlete and has 55-60 grade top end speed, but he takes a few steps to get to that speed, meaning he’s likely not ever going to be a great base stealer, but he does very well on the bases taking an extra base once he’s at full speed. Defense (55) – Wade has tremendous instincts in the outfield. That has allowed him to handle center field to this point in his minor league career, but he would likely be better suited in a corner spot, probably left field to suit his arm, and he could be an elite defender at that position with his instincts. Arm (45) – While Wade’s arm is below-average in strength, his instincts on defense are not limited to just getting in position on the ball to make a catch. He also has great instincts at getting himself in position to be behind the ball and able to make an accurate throw, so while his arm isn’t the best, he does get himself into good position for throwing, which helps to cover it somewhat. ____________________________________________________________________________ Wade seems to project to be able to play all 3 OF positions defensively at an above-average to elite level. While his lack of arm-strength will mean that in a perfect world he plays a CO spot, we've seen players like Ben Revere and Denard Span have pretty good success in CF despite a lack of arm. The defensive versatility is nice and he's an extremely high IQ fielder with really good speed and defensive instincts with above average/to better than that potential as a CO. You can count on 1 hand the number of errors Wade has made over his minor league career. Further, while he's never going to be a big base stealer, stealing bases is only one way of generating positive value on the bases. Wade doesn't have a great couple of first two steps supposably, but he's a great baserunner who will be able to take extra bases and add value that way. ____________________________________________________________________________ Wade project to be somewhere between average and elite defensively at all 3 OF positions and has speed to be able to generate positive value running the bases. Offensively, he's got one of the best eyes seen in the Twins system in quite awhile. At AA, Wade's 162 game pace is 104 BBs and a borderline .400 OBP. He doesn't have a ton of power by any means, but for a guy that gets on base does it really matter? The most immediate comparisions of former Twins that I can think of compared to LaMonte Wade are Denard Span and Robbie Grossman. Both have extremely good eyes and get on base a ton to make up for their lack of power. Wade is much much better than Span thus far in his minor league career than Span was, although Span was younger. Although it's also fair to say that Span, especially early on, was a better MLB player than a minor league player. Neither player stole a ton of bases despite some speed although Span was probably faster, but Wade seems to have more power. Span struggled to hit the ball out of the infield. As a hitter Wade compares more similarly to Grossman seemingly in terms of offering a little bit more pop past the in field. Grossman's minor league slash line was .270/.380/.392/.772 compared to: Wade's minor league slash line is .294/.398/.412/.810 _______________________________________________________________________________ So Wade is a better hitting version of Grossman--especially average-wise--or at least projects to be. He also might have a little bit more potential than Grossman to drive the ball--although it remains to be seen how that ability carries at the major league level. Approach at the plate, batter's eye, and BB/K%'s translate as nicely as any metric to the MLB from the minors. If Wade can offer a 13-15% walk rate similar to Grossman in the majors and Wade's minor league track record that would put him near the top 10 in terms of BB%. His minor league K% would put him near the top 10 in terms of least strikeout prone batters in the MLB. Wade might not be able to replicate those numbers that strongly, at least not right away, but he's definitely gonna be one of the hardest Twins hitters to get out easily and get on base as much as anyone not named Mauer on the team. Further, he's going to offer positive base-running value, speed, and OF defense. Wade is old for AA at 24, but his slow progression through the minor leagues is towards no fault of his own--his numbers of basically held steady throughout each level of his minor league career. Further a late start at rookie ball at 21 means he's a little bit older, but not because of a lack of minor league success. Ceiling: Adam Eaton lite -- Adam Eaton's 162 game averages in his MLB career are .285-.360-.780 with 105 runs- 31 2B - 10 3B - 11 HR - 57 RBI - 17 SB. This line compares decently well to Wade's 162 game AA averages of .294-.398-.810 - 100 runs - 25 2B - 5 3B - 13 HR - 90 rbis - 15 SB Eaton's numbers are anchored by a slow first two seasons and he's an even better player than that now. I don't think Wade's hit tool is that good, but I think his eye could be better. He might not get those kind of XBH totals, but I think he could have a higher OBP. Middle Projection :It really seems like Denard Span with a little bit less base-stealing ability and average, but more walks/obp and power is a pretty good comp for Lamonte Wade--this seems like a pretty realistic projection. Floor: A floor does seem to be a better defending, faster, Robbie Grossman--but a better defensive and faster Robbie Grossman probably isn't a 4th out fielder. _______________________________________________________________________________ Guys like Lamonte Wade are the kind of guys that fall through the cracks because they don't do anything flashy, but are simply really good baseball players that take really good ABs, get on base a ton, and make a lot of positive impact plays. It's not at all s I think that while there's a chance he does top out as a 4th outfielder, those labels seem to limit a guy that is a relatively safe bet to be more than that. His bat only needs to be Robert Grossman level's to really be a starting or borderline starting caliber player for some team with the baserunning and defensive value he provides. I would argue there's a lot of reason to believe the bat is a notch above Grossman's which in my mind would make him pretty comfortably a major league caliber starter. Even if his power numbers resemble Denard Span's that's a guy who can start for some teams. _________________________________________________________________________________ Wade should definitely be promoted to AAA pronto, it's a little confusing why they are holding this guy back as they are. Once Wade gets ABs and is successful at the AAA level, the Twins should look to call him up after the all-star break. He's about as good of a backup OF as you can get with his ability to play solid to plus defense at all 3 positions, take consistent quality ABs, and get on base in bunches. Where Wade fits long term in an extremely crowded Twins OF it remains to be seen. The Twins, understanding Buxton's durability issues, would really benefit from carrying a player in Wade's mold to spell all 3 OFs and to be able to step in if injuries happen. Grossman for large stretches of these periods has played this role and gotten ABs because of his ability to take quality ABs and get on base. Wade is Grossman, but in upgrade in just about every area. Grossman has also played a decent chunk of games at DH over the previous two seasons. You could DH Wade, but the better strategy would be to let Wade play 2,3, 4 games in the OF a week spelling one of the outfielders and moving them to DH or Buxton to the bench. Wade is a defensive upgrade to both Kepler and Rosario. Further, he adds speed and obp to a lineup that could benefit from a guy who can do both of those things. Regardless of how the Twins decide to get Wade involved in their lineup he'd be a perfect leadoff hitter, again on a team without a natural leadoff hitter. Even if Wade is unable to replicate his minor league successfully, if he is able to hit .270-285 and get on base .370-.400 and provide plus defense he'd be a great piece added to the Twins roster that they don't currently have. He's not a highly ranked prospect because this kind of production isn't sexy or flashy, but it's underratingly valuable. Especially on a Twins team full of extra-base hit machines who are much more medoicre at getting on base at a high rate. Imagine the amount of times him and Mauer would be on base at the top of the order for the run producers. I think there's a better chance that many Twins fans and people in the organization give credit for that Wade puts up these kind of numbers either for the Twins or another major league team. I get the frustration by Twins management at the lack of big power or extra base hit numbers, but I'm not sure it's gonna matter with the kind of contact skills that Wade offers--the power would be nice...but there's value there regardless.

Wow, 6-2 240 is about as good as you can hope for in terms of build for projecting a guy who's gonna be able to pitch a bunch of innings. I try and keep tabs on prospects, but this guy has seemingly come out of nowhere for me which makes it even better. If he's able to stay healthy and continue to pitch like he has through the all-star break...does he get a shot at AA as the season closes? Or do the Twins shut him down to limit innings as he only pitched 40 innings in 2017? Fernando Romero track coming back from injury? A+ if he continues to light it up and after 10 or so more starts/50 innings at A? Innings cap at 100ish? The Berrios track was 103 innings at A his age 19 season--but he also struggled a little bit at A. His age 20 season he went A+, AA, cup of coffee AAA. Cautious this season? Aggressive next? Crazy to think that if they so choose and this success continues, he could probably handle a few AA starts to end the year.(And then from there it's majors watch at just 20) But that's just me wanting to see him up with the Twins as early as possible. __________________________________________________________________ I'm impressed with the control for someone as young as he is and will be watching to see if that continues. How's the movement on his FB, obviously when we're talking 100+ we're talking icing on the cake, but if he throws that hard with any kind of movement--wow. Or is that kind of thing where it flattens out at when he's touching 99-101 and when he's at 95-98 it's got a little bit more movement to it. What's his best secondary pitch? Can he control it yet? __________________________________________________________________ Maybe the track record isn't quite there to put him #2/#3 or even argue for why he's the best the Twins have yet, but if he stays healthy it's hard to imagine him not.

I don't mind stretching him out as a starter during the rehab process...it's probably better and gets him throwing more anyways which will be a positive thing for a guy who hasn't pitched professionally in awhile. With Santana's impending return, Odorizzi and Gibson's success at the bottom of the rotation, and Romero seemingly holding his own in the majors in a big way...I'm hoping that if all things go right he's added to the bullpen sometime after the allstar break. May was arguably the best reliever on the team prior to his injury and flashing borderline closer potential or at the very least shutdown high leverage late inning guy. The Twins are currently tied for 20th in Bullpen ERA at 4.20 and definitely near the bottom of the league in pure talent level. May's addition would be huge for a Twins bullpen group that is arguably their weakest link and really needs it.

Another really good start for Odorizzi...despite some worrying peripherals (.243 BABIP, 83% strand rate, 5.30 FIP, 4.95 xFIP) I think he's solidifying a formula that looks repeatable and should work for him. He's an extremely weird pitcher, although the BABIP, Strand Rate, and FIPs are all higher than one would hope for suggesting he's getting very lucky so far. He's always been a buy with a BABIP well below league average (.300 --> .267), Strand Rate well above league average (70-72-->76) and FIPs/xFIPs that are well above his career ERA (3.8/4.3). So Odorizzi, to some extent seems to be a guy that the traditional methods of identifying whether current performance should correlate to future success using advanced stats...doesn't really work as well as it does for most pitchers. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Further, Odorizzi is pretty much at or within decimal points of all of his career traditional stats (before this game)... I think his career high HR/FB% and BB% should come down which should bring down the OPS/SLG/OBP/AVG numbers that are all slightly above his career averages. Against this, more balls in play that fall and lower runners stranded should lead to more runners on base and more runners that score. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised to see the effects from the competing pressures of the normalization of all of those indicators wash out to some extent. So while I don't think the 3.3 ERA is quite sustainable, I do think an ERA in the mid to high-mid 3's is obtainable for Odorizzi. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Odorizzi is one of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers that I've ever seen--his usual GB rate is around 30-33%. This means that he gives up a ton of fly-balls meaning it will be important for Odorizzi to try and keep the ball in the park--which he's struggled with at times this season. The Twins could be the perfect team for Odorizzi--the OF when healthy with Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler is going to get to just about as many balls as any OF group in the league. The OF defense behind Odorizzi will be key to maximizing Odorizzi. Fly-ball pitchers give up a lower BABIP, but more XBH hits--which we've seen with Odorizzi. We've also seen his above-average ability to limit guys from scoring by being able to strike players out and allowing fly balls and in-field fly balls that prevent batters from advancing. Again, I think to do this Odorizzi needs to use lots of pitches--so I think that fans have to accept the lack of 5 and 6 innings starts from Odorizzi rather than deeper outings. But in this role I really do think he can have success and I think that's one of the better #4/#5 options the Twins have had in a long-time. ___________________________________________________________________________________ To me the success seems relatively real, the ERA will come back a little bit, but Odorizzi is on the perfect team with the Twins outfield defense to have one of his better years and have success going forward. This guy really intrigues me because of his uniqueness.

2] I am a big fan and believer in Polanco, whether he sticks at SS or moves to 2B. I am NOT Gordon, who I believe will be a fine player, but he is not yet a proven player and may need this year, and maybe part of 2019 before making his mark. ________________________________________________________________________________ Prelude ________________________________________________________________________________ I too am a big believer in Jorge Polanco, more so before the suspension for the positive PED test. However, I generally believe that in recent years we've seen inconclusive evidence that a player's success before getting caught for PEDs can't be repeated to at least some extent upon returning. Guys like Ryan Braun and Melky Cabrera have been able to relatively closely match their numbers post-ban with only marginal degrees of drop-off. I believe that the edge players get from PEDs is in their ability to remain healthier, recover faster from nagging injuries, and stay fresher over the course of a long season. It's probably also true that PEDs are a shortcut to gaining muscle mass--but I think it's just that, a shortcut. Most importantly, I don't think PEDs have much, if any correlation, to the most important skill in baseball...that is...the ability to square up and hit a baseball. Polanco is an extremely talented hitter with a very strong pedigree and track record of production offensively. The guy has great hands, hand-eye, and good bat-speed and is just simply a natural hitter--or at least that's been his strength coming up through the minors and when he's on in the majors. I would be a lot more worried about a positive test if Polanco was a pure power guy such as a Logan Morrison or Miguel Sano...I think a power hitter that relies on that skill largely to differentiate themselves as a hitter faces a ton more questions than a guy who's a smaller-in-stature-line drive/gap/pull it to the corner HR guy like Polanco. In my mind, the positive PED test raises questions about his ultimate future power potential in terms of HRs, not his ability to be an above average MLB hitter. Polanco hit 10 HRs, 15 2Bs, and 2 3Bs in 63 second half games last season for per 162 game paces of 39 2Bs, 26 HRs, and 5 3Bs. The positive PED test puts into question whether he continues to show the surprising mid-to-high 20 HR power he did in last year's second half...instead of the mid-to-high teens HR guy he was thought of prior to last season's power explosion. 2 seasons ago, in 53 second half games, Polanco hit 12 doubles, 4 3Bs, and 3 HRs for 162 game paces of 37 doubles, 12 3Bs, 10 HRs. I think it's much more likely his per game production is something more similar to this kind of line-drive/gaps/XBH power than the over-the-fence/HR power he showed last season--especially after the positive PED test. So while the positive PED test muddies the waters to some extent about Polanco's production upon his return and his ultimate ceiling--especially power-wise, I don't think it bars Polanco from the Twins future plans should he prove to have the work ethic to get himself into shape and stay off the PEDs in the future. ________________________________________________________________________________ Prior to Polanco's suspension this offseason, I wrote an analysis that's partially my own, but als gathering some analysis written by fangraphs writer Brandon Warne and others regarding Polanco's potential and their excitement for the young player. I'm going to copy and paste that reddit post following this: ________________________________________________________________________________ I'm a huge Polanco believer. He advanced through the minors so quickly with a lot of success, it's not surprising he's been a little inconsistent at the major league level. The dude is just a downright solid hitter. I'm a big analytics junkie especially in baseball--so I'm a big Fangraphs guy. Fangraphs is absolutely massive on Polanco. _________________________________________________________________________________ Here's there projections for this year: _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco won't wow you with any individual attributes, but instead of flash, he's just downright solid. His season numbers in 2017 aren't terribly impressive -- .256/.313/.410 -- but he ended the year blazing hot after an early-season stretch where he faltered badly at the plate, and perhaps not inconsequentially, lost his grandfather. When Polanco woke up on Aug. 1, his season line was .213/.265/.305; from that point on – 55 games – he hit a blistering .316/.377/.553 with 10 homers, 15 doubles and seven steals. Those are 162-game paces of 30 homers, 45 doubles and 21 steals! He won't post a .900-plus OPS, but this is a guy you should be targeting after the studs at shortstop. Polanco had a horrible start to last season, but he also was horribly unlucky. Even after his crazy stretch in August/September, his BABIP was only .278. This is from a guy who's BABIP in the minors was in the .310-.330 range consistently. Polanco has a great command of the strike-zone and an elite ability to make solid contact and drive balls. It's not a surprise he's such an XBH machine. _________________________________________________________________________________ Fangraph's writers across the board love Polanco and his contact skills, here's another article written about Polanco in early January: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/10-players-im-excited-to-watch-in-2018/ _________________________________________________________________________________ Here's another writers Polanco analysis: _________________________________________________________________________________ In his pre-season player profile last year I wrote the following of Polanco: Polanco doesn’t have a lot of power, but he actually led all MLB shortstops in line drive percentage (30%), and already shows he can pull the ball effectively (41%), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see just enough pop in 2017 to make Polanco a cheap middle infield source of slightly above average power/speed (think 20 HR+SB). The switch-hitting Polanco made good on that analysis, combining for 26 HR + SB and a .253/.313/.410 line in 133 games. What I didn’t expect was that he’d accomplish almost all of it in just half a season, hitting 10 of his 13 home runs in August/September and swiping 7 bases in that timeframe in six less games. Polanco’s effort to change his approach clearly paid off, (.293/.359/.511), and he’s young enough (just 24) that it’s not unreasonable to expect many of those gains to stick around for 2018. Polanco finished the 2017 season with career marks in contact rate (86.5%), swinging strike rate (5.8%), and hard hit rate (27.7%). I’m excited to see what might be next for this MIN post-hype prospect. _________________________________________________________________________________ Here's one last article from November that has the punchline I'm getting to in it... Article: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/post-hype-prospects-part-1/ _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco Player Analysis #3 _________________________________________________________________________________ I remember reading and hearing about Polanco on Twins prospect lists for several years, but then once he came up to the majors… nothing! I’m not talking about 2014-15 when his two sips of coffee combined for 20 PA, but even in 2016 when he played 69 (nice!) games there wasn’t any real chatter surrounding him. Then this past season he slogged through 78 games with a .570 OPS before rallying to the finish line with a fantastic .931 OPS in 55 games including 10 HR and 7 SB. Only then did he get a little buzz, but even that was muted by fellow second tier prospect Eddie Rosario (.889 2H OPS). Perhaps Polanco could be on something of a Jose Ramirez track. It’s not a perfect comparison as I think Polanco trades some of the contact and speed of Ramirez for more ready-made power, but both are switch-hitting power/speed middle infielders who were up at 20 years old logging MLB time. Again, Polanco tallied just 20 total PA in 2014-15 while Ramirez had 280 through his age-21 season, but Polanco turned around his struggles quicker than Ramirez had through age-22 (78 wRC+ in 625 PA) so he may not need as many reps to make the leap. The beauty with Polanco is that his first half overshadows his final two months on the bottom line so there won’t be a ton of attention on him come draft day. Scoop him up on the cheap! The writer loosely compares Polanco to Jose Ramirez and while Polanco likely isn't quite that good...he's still really good. _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco's 2017/18 162 Game Pace/Production Per Game Stats _________________________________________________________________________________ Polanco's stats last year on 162 game pace were roughly(with slight embellishment): .260/.315/.410/.725 with 75 runs - 36 2B - 4 3B - 16 HR - 90 RBI - 16 SB and a .280 BABIP that suggests even more positive regression in that line. Like the articles have pointed out, Polanco has reached the majors at the age of 20 and while he hasn't quite consistently established himself...players like Polanco who rise that quickly and face development levels way past their age-group can get slightly soured by groups of fans who don't understand that most of Polanco's peers were still in the low-minors. Polanco shouldn't be penalized for that. His career 162 game average isn't bad either and are just under: .270/.325/.420/.765 with 70 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 15 HR - 80 RBI - 15 SB Projections have him pretty close to that line(162 game pace): .275/.330/.425/.755 with 83 runs - 35 2B - 5 3B - 17 HR - 83 RBI - 17 SB _________________________________________________________________________________ I think that's roughly a pretty fair over under for Polanco, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Polanco take an Eddie Rosario type jump and approach .290 or even higher with 40+ combined 2B/3B's and approaching 20 HRs. His run and rbi totals will depend on his lineup spot. Regardless, if Polanco can put up numbers somewhere between those two lines...holy moly should Twins fans have a lot to be excited about. I really think he can. His hitting skills, ability to make hard contact, and ability to command the strike zone are all legit. I'd be really disappointed if Polanco can't establish himself this season. Defensively, I think Polanco's best position long-term is probably 2B. But I was pleasantly surprised with his ability at SS last season and while he'll likely never be a guy with a glove that is a real plus his ability to not be a huge minus defensively and play both MI spots will allow his bat to play. Guys, Polanco is ONLY 24. _________________________________________________________________________________ Who knows if Polanco will reach his potential, but I really think he's he's got a make-up that suggests he could be a good one. The biggest concern for me is the lower exit velocity, that stat seems to contradict a lot of the other metrics in his profile. Some of that could be because he's not a big guy or a huge power guy in terms of mammoth home runs. I'm not sure...we'll see. I'm optimistic. Having his kind of bat at 2B/SS could be a huge luxury. _________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________ Post Analysis Post Thoughts Some of this will be reiterating what was written in those paragraphs, but Polanco's great really good hit tools. He's got a really good approach at the plate, a great command for the strike zone, and elite elite ability to make contact. His 86.5% contact rate and 5.8% meaning that he's got absolutely elite bat control and almost never misses, especially on balls inside the zone. His 8ish% walk rate puts him very solidly above average, he's no Rosario and this rate shows that he can both make contact as well as get on base at an above average level. Further, his 14.3% strikeout rate was near Mauer-esque in terms of limiting strikeouts. Many guys who make a lot of contact do so while protecting the plate and making weak/singles type of contact. Polanco mashes the ball and led all MLB shortstops in line drive% with 30%. Basically, Polanco is a switch-hitting extra base machine that makes a ton of really solid contact driving the ball in gaps all over the field. He's tries to yank and pull balls over the fence at times if he gets one in his wheelhouse, but generally spreads the ball really well to all fields. It remains to be seen how he can perform after returning from the suspension, but Polanco is just 24 and the same age as Buxton and has had 2 stints of extremely successful seasons at the MLB level at age 22 and 23 after reaching the majors for the first time at just 20 years old. I was most excited for Polanco this offseason and I really hope he can regain form. Polanco regaining his form would be one of the most positive things I can think of for the Twins potential future offensively. When healthy, him, Rosario, Sano, Kepler would form a pretty solid foundation for the lineup of guys who are all 24/25 tears old: #2 (Polanco - SS), #3 (Sano - 3B/DH), #4 (Rosario - RF) #5 (Kepler - LF) Aside from whatever Buxton can or can't produce... __________________________________________________________________________________ One last caveat--Interesting that you're high on Polanco, but low on Gordon With that being said, it's really interesting that you don't like Nick Gordon because Gordon and Polanco are very similar prospects. Defensively, both are SS's who've had to deal with questions about their ability to stay at the position and not move to 2B (Polanco answered them well last season). Neither are big guys, Polanco is 5'11 200 and Gordon 6' 165, neither project to be big HR guys, but should hit a bunch of extra base hits...both of their best skills are their ability to make a lot of pretty good contact. Polanco probably has a little more power while Gordon has a little bit more speed. It's interesting that you're bullish on Polanco, but boarish on Gordon. Curious why that is?

Really good post. I pretty much 100% agree. My lineups were just meant to get discussion going and I fully expect things to change as more baseball gets played and new trends emerge--sample sizes are still small. As that information changes, the Twins strategy on future roster construction should change too. Regarding your points 1 and 2--I am very high on both Morrison and Polanco as well. I'll share my thoughts 1] Morrison has been heating up, and could still be a must sign, even if he doesn't match 2017 numbers. In Morrison's first 12 games and 39 ABs he was 3-39 posting a 0.68-.180-.270 slash line. Despite his struggles to put the ball in play, Morrison largely maintained his approach at the plate drawing 5 walks and only striking out 12 times. For a power hitter, a strikeout a game is actually very good, and his 162 game pace last year put him at 162 strikeouts or the same mark--so despite hitting so poorly he wasn't striking out at a higher rate than his successful year last year. Besides the power, last season Morrison showed an amazing ability to draw walks and get on base. His 88 walk pace per 162 games put him somewhere in the 10-15 range among MLB hitters in terms of walks drawn per game last season. This season, that number is a little bit down, but not significantly so at least to any degree in which it should cause concern or worry. Morrison's 5 walks in 12 games would put him around 70 per 162 games and put him near the 35th spot or so in the MLB for walks drawn--despite the struggles he was still maintaining his approach and getting on base which should have been a big sign that Morrison would turn things around. In 72 ABs since, Morrison has gone 20-72 for a .278 average. He's also drawn 8 walks in 21 games, which would put him at about 60 walks for the season--his walk numbers are still down, but it's likely that last year could have been a bit of a career year in this department. 19 strikeouts means he's not striking out an alarming amount either. He's also hit 3 doubles, 3 HRs, and 11 RBIs in that span, or a 162 game pace of 24 HRs, 24 2Bs, and 85 RBIs. Morrison's overall slash line during that period paced to 162 games is roughly: .280/.335/.785 with 85 runs - 24 2B - 24 HR - 85 RBI That's not quite what the Twins hoped for based on last season's performance, but it's also not negative production especially for the price the Twins got him at this offseason. Further, there's reason to believe that further positive regression could be coming... his BABIP is extremely low at .220 and well below the MLB league average of .300. A fly ball hitter like Morrison will likely have a low BABIP, but it's still below the .270 or .280 BABIP he had in the last two seasons. Some of this is because, as the eye test suggests, he's not hitting as many balls hard. His LD rate (20.5-->18.6) is slightly down as is his soft contact percentage (17.5 --> 23.3). As a result his hard contact percentage (37.4 --> 33.5) and HR/FB (22.5-->11.5) are also down. Even if Morrison can't repeat his breakout last season, he's still below his HR/FB rate of two seasons ago before changing his launch angle which was around 15%. The biggest reason for this is that Morrison's IFFB% (in-field fly ball percentage) is up big time from 8.9% to 19.5%. For a guy with the type of loft on his swing that Morrison has, during periods of struggle, he's going to get under balls and pop them up. This seems to be the biggest indicator behind the decreases in HRs, linedrives, hard contact, and power percentage. We'll see how much positive regression happens, but I would argue that there's going to be some in that department in all likelikihood. Further, no matter the result I would argue that Morrison is closer to the hitter that he's been in his last 72 plate ABs (65% of his at bats this season) than the guy he was in the first 39 ABs (35% of his at bats this season.) If Morrison can find some consistent production at the level he's been producing for his last 65% of his at bats this season or even better...it'll be an interesting conversation that the Twins will have to think about on which guy between him and Mauer they end up keeping. (Or both).

There ya go. It worked. I trust Odorizzi's formula. Learn to accept the 5 to 6 innings. Let him use lots of pitches and accept him for what he is. He's got the formula to make it work. With a guy on 2nd, nibbling and forcing guys to get themselves out works. He'll get outs...and there might be a walk that puts another guy on base somewhere in there but that sets up the force. Sometimes it won't work, but more often than not it will. I prefer bringing in relievers with clean innings. Bring in the reliever in that situation if Odorizzi give up a run...not before. Again it won't always work, but I believe that's the best way to approach things. That formula I've outlined might not be an ace, but we don't need Odorizzi to be an ace. If those are the kinds of outings you get from your 4th and 5th starters you'll either be winning or in a position to compete to win in just about every game. If your 4th and 5th starters consistently put you in that situation--you're gonna be a really good team.

3.38 era. He could very well give up a run. More times than not over a season he won't. Bringing in a reliever might get the guy out this time too. I've seen the movie happen where it also goes the other way. Trust your guys. Odorizzi's got the stuff to strike guys out and is comfortable pitching with guys on base and making sure guys don't get hard contact with guys on. Again sometimes guys will score. But more times than not they won't. Bringing in a guy cold out of the flow of the game with runners on in my opinion is a much harder spot. Odorizzi's been pitching well and they're his guys. He doesn't want them to score. I trust that .

I disagree. Hits happen. Once the leadoff double is in play you gotta get real careful with your pitches...if it takes him 20 to get out of the inning so be it. Odorizzi can strike guys out and if takes him keeping balls to the perimeter of the zone using up the rest of his pitch count and forcing guys to hit tough pitches or make weak contact that's fine. I'd rather let him keep going then bring in a reliever cold to face guys on base. I think that's much tougher. You might get burned, but we've seen pulling a guy with runners on get burned and it happens all the time. I trust Odorizzi to get outs.

***Lack of being able to generate any offense against Wade Leblanc is about to lose us this game.

I actually disagree a little bit. The average starter only goes 5 or 5 1/3 inning or something like that. Plus there's some evidence that starters, especially back end starters should throw less innings.... https://www.mlb.com/news/starting-pitchers-should-throw-fewer-innings/c-157383440 If a starter only knows he needs to go 5 or 6 innings, he doesn't have to limit his pitches the same way current baseball thought thinks. The same way relievers are able to waste more pitches, exert more effort, etc and let there stuff play up because they throw shorter stints...starters can be more effective with their at bats and go deeper into at bats without worrying that that might mean only 5 or 6 innings. A quality 5 or 6 innings on a regular basis should be no problem for the bullpen and actually the average MLB team gets about 5 to 5 1/3 innings out of their starters over 162 games anyways...so that means they average 3 2/3 to 4 innings out of their bullpen. Obviously, in a better world Odorizzi can go 6-7 on an average basis...but that's part of why he's a #3-5 instead of a #2-3...if he has to exert more effort and be more careful with his pitches to get guys out and is only able to go 5 to 6 innings but can allow 2/3 or less runs in those innings...the Twins are going to be winning or in every game and will win a lot of ball games. Further, I don't have the exact analysis but for Odorizzi's career he's really really good the first 2 times through lineups but falls off the 3rd time...so he might even be best served in his role.

True. Fair point. I'll agree with that. Although with some guys...say Berrios..if he's the kind of guy you want him to be on your staff...you're gotta let him fight through some stuff even if he's struggling at times. But maybe he's not that guy yet. But again this is unrelated, so I'll stick to the game. Odorizzi is seeming to wanna fit a 25 pitch inning in there just so he can stay to his 6 innings.

Little bit unrelated to this current game...I'm just saying something to watch. Berrios got taken out after 78 pitches the other day for example. Maybe it's something I'm selectively seeing and it's not something he generally does. I just feel if our pitcher has 90-95 pitches he's not going out the next inning where there are other managers that would send them out the next inning. I don't mind 105-110 pitches.

We'll see what happens during this game, but generally Molly seems to wanna take starters out an inning early rather than an inning late...which I guess I can't argue with as a general strategy...I'd like to see him stay with the starters a little longer generally I think. Too many starters are being taken out with 92 pitches going into the next inning. I don't think there's a big difference between 95 pitches and 105 pitches...especially if a lot of those pitches have been relatively lower levels of stress.

This is true, but we're gonna have plenty of cap room. I'd rather spend a couple extra than maybe a team friendly price to bring him back then skimp on price and deal with what we've dealt with in the past. Although we do have a lot of potential options with Gonsalves, Gibson, Pineda, May, and others.

Big fan of Odorizzi. Not gonna go deep into games and that's why he's a #3/#4/#5 but he's gonna limit hits, strike guys out (also walk some guys), and go 5-6 innings and allow 2-3 runs...there's a ton of value in that. Really hope the Twins sign this guy long-term should he keep it up and seemingly he should.

Buxton's been hitting a decent amount of hard outs this year--at least I remember the first stretch of games at the beginning of the year he was and there was another one there. That can get a little bit lost/forgotten with the numbers. Sample size is still small and a lot of that is amidst injury stuff. Patience.