bunsen82

Priellip after his last outing I was expecting to be dominant. He was good through 3 with only one run then thing fell apart in the fourth. Most likely a little nerves and not being fully stretched out and still working a bit on the feel. Zebby is definitely one I will be keeping an eye on. Not mentioned here listened to the Kernels game for an inning and they had high praise for Cavaco, seemed to have better plate discipline contact, and was playing outstanding defense at first. Still not expecting much, was more surprised to hear the name.

First off I fully agree potential supersedes production often on these prospect lists. In the same token, it takes true talent and stuff to make it to the big leagues and then be successful. Ok so let’s talk honestly, his raw stuff in 2020 and 2021 was elite even for college pitchers. This is what makes the scouts and projections state he has the potential to be an ace or a #2 pitcher. Now lets be clear he hasn’t pitched in 2 years (not 3 as has been stated). Honestly I think one of the biggest thing that hurt Priellip last year in the draft was making the decision early to not pitch and to only focus on the scouts in controlled outings. There was no sacrifice for the team this was clearly what he thought would best serve him in the draft. Even still by all standards he was well in the recovery window to slow play it. If I have any red flag, this might be it I see #1 pitchers ultimately as bulldogs wanting the ball and will run through a brick wall, this may have been a smart play but also very passive. Had he came out even in relief and struck out a couple of the top hitters he is a top 15 pick. Otherwise one injury or tommy John doesn’t make a player injury prone. In some cases it takes that risk down significantly in the future. I think health wise we will be pleasantly. Surprised. As to the stuff if he pitches the way I expect him to he will be top 5 in the prospect rankings in short order. Right now if he shows he can produce even in the lower levels his prospect ranking sky rockets. I wish good health and stand out performances.

My guess is 280 to 300 million. You had the Red Sox bidding against the Padres and also the Cubs. The Yankees Dodgers and Red Sox don’t appear to want to get involved due to the cheating scandal. So we have the cubs Twins and Giants. Giants have to outbid due to higher taxes. They have money to spend so they may just throw out a crazy offer like judge. My guess is they don’t. The cubs seem to have focused on Dansby. Twins may end up with the best offer.

I wouldn’t be so sure. The cubs for some reason are not as enamored with Correa. I could see it coming down to us and the Giants.

To me this is where it is big. It seems like most years past the number 1 picks there is a tier if 4-6 really solid players and them after that a drop off. The twins benefitted this year in 2022 as to me there were 7 solid prospects and then a drop off. However 1-2 gems drafted players rated lower either due to falling in love with a prospect or managing the draft pool. We then had brooks Lee fall in our laps.

Correa and Buxton would be 2 elite players you can build an offense around year in and year out if they remain healthy. The contract makes sense on that front. For a year and only a year we will have excess pitching and within 2 years most of it will be gone. We will have spent a lot of prospect capital for the next 1-2 year window. I struggle with what it would take to get Correa to sign. What it will mean is the organization will have to continually hit on prospects in the next 4-5 years to make this work. They will have limited funds to fill in the gaps for the next 6 years. I think we would be better off gambling on Lewis becoming a top 5 shortstop. At this point it is a wait and see.

I will say 30% chance. The Yankees will spend their money on resigning Judge, Where I think this falls is on the Dodgers and Trea Turner. I think the Dodgers are willing to resign Turner and can outspend any other team. So does Trea Turner want to go back to a team on the East coast or resign, I say he will resign. So then it really opens up. Cubs and Atlanta could outspend. I think the Twins feel comfortable with Correa. They may be willing to do a bigger contract now that he has been in the system for a year. 7 years 245 million-250 million is the end game. If the Twins are serious which I think they are, and the two major bidders are out of the equation, the Twins have a punchers shot.

1st off we paid Julien more than Seth Gray (our 4th round draft pick). He had a heck of a run in the college world series and started to ask more than was likely agreed to when the Twins initially signed, but they were able to find the initial money to sign him after he had said he was going back. To me, he was another lottery pick that year similar to Holland. Of the two I wish Holland had hit as he is a shortstop, but Julien performing well is still a win. 2nd base and our future utility player or trade chip comes down to Martin or Julien likely. I anticipate they each will get a taste at the big leagues next year.

For Martin it comes down to getting comfortable with what the Twins are asking him to do at the plate and playing defense and getting healthy. He quietly got better on defense throughout the year. He had a very rough beginning of the year on the defensive side of things. He may never be an elite SS, but a good bat average defense has a place in this game. There is flexibility in his game that he can likely move to second or Outfield. We are starting to get a glut of SS prospects, although if all make it to the big leagues you could have infield of Martin 2nd, Lewis at SS, Lee at 3rd. My gut feel is Martin is a 300 hitter, 400 plus OBP mid .800 OBP player with lots of steals. I received lots of pushback this summer. He has now had 2 injury riddled years along with some subpar hitting. However, with better confidence and a more refined swing I think we will start to see Martin get back to the hitter he was before.

Where is the article about how many players have outplayed their rankings. You would have at least 6 up to 12 players including those that were traded. Headrick, Festa, (Hajjar, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, Povich - all traded) Raja, Varland, Celestino, Winder, Ryan, Julien, Palacios, Helman, Mooney, Raya, Rodriguez. This also doesn't consider other players that are doing well. Overall the prospects played better than expected overall.

Baseball reference has him as 3.3 WAR player. He will likely get to 4 WAR by the end of the year. Personally this about as good as you can ask for and for the Twins situation I think they will be more than happy if Correa opts into another year to let Lewis get healthy. Correa will have essentially played to the contract and if he opts in good deal.

The asked Falvey to name some prospects that have impressed them and could help in the future and he only named Varland. Said he would be helping the team sooner rather than later.

On the interview this weekend they stated how much they like Varland, essentially insinuated he may be up with the big league team at the end of the season.

But he is playing to his contract and people are acting like he is playing poor. He is not playing poor, He is still likely in the top 15% of all players, he is just not in the top 1-2% like he has had in a few seasons. A lot of things have to go right to get those types of seasons.

Since when is a 3-4 WAR player considered a poor player? If Correa hits 4 WAR he will be worth 34 million dollars. No offense this is pretty good productions. Point two is check out Correa stats. He historically has an excellent season followed by a good to great season. This seems to follow that trend. If we can get an extra season out of this contract all the better.

It has been reported the twins coveted Mahle more than any other pitcher on the market. Whether due to his lower cost or the expectation he may be as good or better than Castillo or Montas. Mahle cost quite a bit but we have the option of giving him a qualifying offer and if he does as well as we think he will that would turn into a pick at the end of the first round. Or we get him for another year. So right now we are looking at 1 year 2 months and a future end of the first round draft pick, or 2 years and 2 months for Mahle. That is a pretty good return. I truly think the twins think he is an ACE. We will see if that comes to fruition or not. As to Lopez, this current version of him, he is a stud. 7 pitches 3 up 3 down. I was talking with my uncle yesterday and he thought I needed to know what a closers roll is since we haven't had one since Molitor left :). It was refreshing to not load the bases and hope we can get out of the inning by the skin of out teeth. Lopez for 2+ years for 1 solid prospect, and older reliever with control issues and 2 flyers seems like a very good deal for the Twins. Fulmer for a player potential at risk in the rule V draft works out very well for the Twins. Its another reliable arm to spread out the stress and responsibilites. If Maeda can make it back and be a solid reliever in the bullpen, the bullpen is suddenly a strength of the team. The trades made help as much for next year as this year. The cherry on top may be that Correa seems to be really invested in this team and organization. There is more of a possibility he may be willing to either not opt out or take a team friendly deal ( I use this term loosely). This puts the ball in managements court on how they want to attack next years team, but if Correa stays, we will have likely one of the top 5-6 teams in MLB and a legit shot at the World Series.

I wouldn't be surprised if the twins are able to add another tick or two to the fastball.

Ashbury this trade pretty much answered whether someone would have been interested in taking him in the rule V draft. Detroit is obviously willing to add him to their 40 man roster and would have been willing to take a flyer on him.

Gipson Long likely would have been lost in the rule V draft. We found something that could help us this year. This is good trade.

The first four picks along with Steer and a couple flyers netted us Gray, Mahle and Lopez. 2 starters and a closer with decent control.

The team does not need him and his contract. That was the deal breaker. Martin will be given another year to see what he is. As to SWR he has performed very well in AA. His prospect actually improved. Martins is down. Overall maybe slightly below the value when we got them last year.

I think its fairly evident the Twins liked Priellip much more than the rest of MLB. Could be our relationship with the program, could be we are projecting him much higher than most. We paid him overslot, but not crazy overslot money. Even still I think we can comfortably say he was likely the highest rated pitcher they had on their board from what we can gather. As to how good he will be that is comes down to how healthy he is and can he perform even close to his first season in college. If so we have a pretty dynamic arm. It is a high upside gamble on an injured arm. We have plenty of those throughout the system.

My guess is he decided he would be better off immediately going to the twins organization to get healthy and get stronger for next year. He is one heck of a lottery pick.

So here are my thoughts. The Twins obviously liked their first 2 draft picks as they very rarely go overslot on their early picks they are usually trying to gain money to use later in the draft. 2. Someone posted Priellip was closer to 48 than 28. Base on the contract I think that is a fair assessment. It’s not to say he doesn’t have high upside, but due to his injury he was lower on peoples boards than many of us anticipated and he commanded much less dollars to sign. 3. This is another year where the day 2 signings are more interesting to me than the day 2. On day 2 currently only the knuckleball pitcher and the volts 2nd baseman look like they have a reasonable shot at the MLB. We are also getting a couple high school athletes as lottery tickets. This was one hell of a draft.

Mahle actually has pretty good stuff. Take him out of Cincinnati and he is a top 30 pitcher. Seems undervalued to me.