bunsen82

Declining K increasing BB. Look I like Duran, he regularly induced weak contact. Personally I think he is closer to last years numbers than this years if I’m being honest. I still hope he remains a dominant closer though. I can just see where the Twins thought there may be risk that he declined in performance.

I feel ignorant is a fair statement when the claim was the front office has NEVER helped the big league team. As to the 2021 draft we still have Ohl and Debarge who still lives on from the Petty trade. My personal issue since they took the team is they have always tried to put a good product on the field. They have regularly stolen from the minors in trades to supplement the big league team and never did a proper tank. Honestly this morning I like the trade even more. Abel has 5 very good pitches. Really it comes down to control and sequencing. The Phillies seem to be very aggressive in moving up their prospects so leaving him at ASA seems like a very good idea to fine tune his repertoire and gain a little more confidence and control. As to Tait the bat is legit. The risk is staying behind the plate and my guess is the Twins feel he will or they wouldn’t have made the trade. These are the 2 best prospects traded. We still have risk they will perform but it seems like very good value for Duran.

Abel has 5 pitches that are 100+. Yes he has to wrk on control if remains a starter he is 23, otherwise he is a Duran starter kit. Abel is much further along than Ryan ever was. Duran has lower velocity, lower K and higher BB.

Suarez to the Mariners.

Debarge, Amick and Winokur are continuing to rake.

Other than a minor trade of Siroka things have calmed down. The twins need to do well, with the trades for Bader Castro and Coloumbe. Based on the value for Rogers I do think we could get a decent return for him. If the Twins do trade Ryan or Jax it better be viewed as an overpay. The pitchforks are ready and sharpened.

Seriously? Are you seriously being ignorant. We used almost the entire 2021 draft to supplement the MLB team. You are ignoring the Arreaz deal, the Gray deal, even signing Correa, even though that feels like ages ago and seems to be causing us to make some of these decisions pre-maturely. The anti Falvey crowd is getting louder and louder and show the frustration is much more than just a return on a trade of Duran.

Ober. You have Matthew’s and Festa who have talent. Was able to trade for Gray, Lopez and Ryan. Starting pitching isn’t a major issue for this organization. It’s consistent hitting.

He is throwing significantly less pitches over 100 each year yes the e velocity is coming down. He still creates a lot of weak contact, if it begins to become louder contact you run into problems. in the low minors you have Dasan Hill and Soto and Bohorquez as high end young pitching prospects. As of now the mid round and late round pitching prospects have not panned out as well as say 2022. This current draft class should fix that issue with quality and quantity. As to Abel, there is clay to work with for a good starting pitcher. Worst case you let him cut lose as a reliever and maybe he fills Durans spot.

Success in the MLB is fickle, especially with the Pohlads at the helm. I still like the outlook especially for the medium and long term. We have 3 nice long term pieces in the bullpen in Jax, Varland and Sands. The SP still look like a top 10 group with Lopez, Ryan, Ober as your primary 3 starter. SWR, Mathew’s and Festa are still trying to find consistent success at the MLB level. The next group is Raya, Priellip Lewis, Culpepper and Morris. Right now a Priellip seems dominant even with minimal innings. He really has an elite ceiling and he is a lefty. Now you add Abel into the mix. This draft and prior drafts we have picked up some really talented pitchers. Soto, Hill, and Priellip who has already been mentioned. We have 4 very talented pitchers in Quick Ellwanger Reitz and Barr plus our usually flyers. We have talked about pitching pipelines, I think we can say we are finally there. We have talented hitters, I really wonder why our prospects have struggled so much when they have come up. I think Lee is turning a corner. We have some young kids who can really hit in Keashall, Culpepper and Gonzalez. So there are reinforcements. we do seem to have a Correa problem. I am ok with the variable performance, but it’s clear we can’t afford his contract which is causing some of the decisions to be made. My personal opinion is continue to ride it out for another year. Maybe he has a rebound year. we have the prospect capital to stride for some of our holes. I’m still a massive Twins fan but can understand some of the frustration.

I’ll let you be grumpy and concede a bit on the org trying to save money in these deals.

I disagree. Durans velocity is gradually coming down. He has relied upon his superior velocity. Here is my take on the trade, the good bad and the ugly. We have heard of the sellers market and assumed we would get an overpay, by most metrics this seem like fair value for Duran which is disappointing for some. With such a high value for Duran his value depreciates immensely over time. Like the Rays value is dependent on what the organization believes they can achieve. In SWR case the risk was a lack of velocity (which he never really gained until some recent improvements) for Ryan it was that he was a fastball only pitcher. Like Ryan I think they will really start working on the secondary pitches with Abel. Regarding the catcher, the Twins seem to have some specific qualities they look for, and when they have taken a swing they have hit. How many here complained when they took Jeffers in the 2nd round way above rankings, last year in the draft they took Diaw and Ferrer and both are looking solid. Ultimately the risk is you took an A to A+ catcher and not one in AA or AAA. I think theTwins have specific plans for both and likely value them higher than the trade calculators. Beyond the prospects I think then Twins had concerns on Duran continuing to be an elite closer. Between reliever volatility, Durans decreasing velocity, and the trade value diminishing over time we did achieve pretty good value for him. The ugly is 2 fold. This does appear to be motivated by money. I stated in the Paddack trade that I didn’t think we were selling for monetary reasons, I can no longer state that. It seems pretty clear we are shedding salary. The other is we are tanking for draft capital. I really wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a top 5 pick in the draft. That has additional value to adding better prospects to the org, but I have always said baseball is highly determinant on if you got on a hot streak. Like the Braves who were light buyers a couple years ago they caught lightening in a bottle and won. This team had the talent to catch lightening in a bottle. They were good enough other than the fringe players. We are taking away that chance now likely for the next 2 years especially if we trade Ryan. As of now it appears we are keeping Jax, which is an odd that it felt like we were in a rush to trade Duran. We still had time. The Twins are still listening. If they do trade Ryan it really has to be for significant value otherwise the pitchforks are coming. On a brighter note, the minor league system is getting stocked very well. There are some real opportunities to use some prospect capital to help the big league team in the offseason like we have done in prior years. Overall I think Falvey did pretty well, but it wasn’t the knock I tout of the park I thought he could achieve.

Still won’t take him 3 years.

Abel is up now, Priellip could be up next year.

For trade value purposes in the offseason Duran would be worth around 20 points. The calculator is also quite volatile. In either case we will be getting more prospects and we need to hit on several of them.

Ryan came in with just a fastball. I am amazed at the dislike on this board.

We turned Ryan into #1 pitcher.

Yes a mistype on an iPad. 19 is still impressive.

The trade calculator actually is higher, but they are only giving Abel a value around 5-6. Abel has the stuff to be a #1 or #2. His raw stuff is much better than Ryan. I can only imagine what the trade calculator valued that deal at. Ultimately the value comes down to the players, and we got 2 good prospects in this deal. i do agree young catchers tend to have a lot more variability as they rise the ranks, but what he is doing as a 17 year old is very impressive.

He is 23 in MLB right now. If he makes as much improvement from 1 year to the next as he did in AAA, I’m sure everyone here would take that.

2.7 in AAA. 25 innings is the definition of SSS.

Wow lots of hate for a very good trade. This was the exact haul discussed many times. I would even say an overpay. Abel is a much better pitcher than SWR.

Duran to Phillies

I think Ford has to be included in a trade for Duran.

Seeing Mariners as still the leaders for Duran. Going to be off for a couple hours. See if anything happens.