Matthew Lenz

Thanks, MN_ExPat for the kind words. It's great to have a place where I can share my thoughts with others who are passionate about the Twins.

As the season comes to an end I wanted to reflect on some of what I wrote in my first Twins season at Twins Daily and Zone Coverage. Below you will find a review of my preseason predictions as well as some of my early articles. My Preseason Predictions https://twitter.com/Lenzy2108/status/979415769036607488https://twitter.com/Lenzy2108/status/979415769036607488 The Record The Twins finished the year with only 7 fewer wins than I had originally predicted at 78-84. What you may not realize is that outside of the month of April the Twins played .493 baseball with a 69-70 record. What killed them this year, outside of the month of Aprill, was their record in 1 run games (14-21), which was the 8th worst winning percentage in all of baseball. Offensive PoY/Most Homeruns Brian Dozier was part of the laundry list of Twins player who had disappointing seasons, although he might be the biggest bust. Many of the players that underperformed for the Twins this year (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, etc.) were guys that had questions going into the season anyway, but I think many people assumed that Dozier was a lock for at least 30 home runs while slashing somewhere around .250/.340/.500. Your actual winner, in both categories, has to be Eddie Rosario. Although he was a little inconsistent he was the most reliable hitter the Twins had from start to finish. Starting Pitcher of the Year According to FanGraphs WAR and backed up by the eye test, Berrios was the Twins best overall pitcher this year. He improved in almost every metric and at only 24 years old, I think Twins fans should be excited for the pitcher Berrios is becoming. That said, I think an argument could be made for Gibson who was probably the most consistent Twins pitcher this year and is coming off a career year. Relief Pitcher of the Year Nobody could have possibly foreseen the disaster that was Addison Reed this year. He is #2 on my list biggest busts this year behind the aforementioned Brian Dozier. According to FanGraphs WAR, this season was the worst season of his career. We have another year with him, so lets hope the law of averages applies and he kills it next season. The actual Relief Pitcher of the Year would Taylor Rogers who lead all reliever with a WAR of 1.8. A note to make here is that Trevor May looked really good coming out of the pen...something to keep in mind for 2019. Rookie of the Year Gonsalves had his shot to make an impact and his minor league numbers made it seem like he could succeed at the big league level. Unfortunately, those numbers didn't translate at he really struggled with his fastball command and overall control...something he is going to need to figure out when he only throws 90 miles per hour. Again using FanGraphs WAR as my barometer, Mitch Garver and Jake Cave tied as the top rookies with a WAR of 1.3, and I am okay with naming Co-RoY's as I think they were both deserving. Despite having one year left with Jason Castro, I think Garver cemented himself as the primary catcher heading into 2019. In the case of Cave, I think he provides a viable option to compete with Kepler for the RF job entering 2019 spring training while also providing a good "plan B" if Buxton never figures it out. My Articles 2018 Breakout Candidate: Stephen Gonsalves My prediction was somewhat accurate as he did have a pretty good 2018 in the minor league system and never did look back once he was called up, but that was more because of the September 1st roster expansion and (much) less because of how he was performing. I've already addressed what went wrong above and will do a more in-depth dive soon. Season Preview: Kyle Gibson My prediction had Gibson giving us about 180 innings with an ERA around 5 and I had estimated that he wouldn't be able to keep up his 2017 second half K/9 and BB/9 rates. He ended the year with 196.2 innings, an ERA of 3.62 (xFIP of 3.91), and did maintain his K/9 while walking an additional batter per nine innings in 2018. Needleess to say, I think the Twins were impressed with what they got from their sinkerballer as he put together the best season of his career. The guy who I had pegged as our #5 pretty quickly established himself as our #2 or #3, which might say more about our pitching staff than about him. Season Preview: Felix Jorge and Felix Jorge Update Felix Jorge was my "adopt-a-prospect" pick who had an injury-riddled 2018. I had predicted we would see him in 2018 and still think we would have had he stayed healthy. Although 2018 was a loss, he is still young with the potential to make an impact with the Twins in 2019. The Art of the Swing: Logan Morrison This is all you need to know about my prediction with the LoMo signing..."I think this is why Twins fans can be confident in the deal they got with Morrison. His 2017 wasn’t a random fluke. It was a purposeful change in approach and mechanics that lead to some great results. Personally, I am expecting much of the same in 2018." Ouch, man, ouch. So there you have it...my 2018 season in review. Hopefully, 2019 will see better predictions from myself and better performances from the Twins. Any feedback you readers have for me would be greatly appreciated in the comments!

I was hoping for the same, especially since he was the #17 prospect entering the season. I don't have any insider information, but I would like to see the Twins bring him back on another minor league deal with a spring training invite.

With the minor league season coming to an end, I thought a quick update on my “adopt-a-prospect” would be good. It was back in early March when I was looking forward to providing “bi-weekly(ish)” updates on Twins prospect Felix Jorge. I had predicted that we would see him at some point in 2018 with a September call-up being the worst case scenario. Not too long after that, he was placed on the disabled list for the Twins AA affiliate Chattanooga with soreness in his right triceps, which is his pitching arm. After about two and a half months, he was able to debut and pitch 3.0 innings for the Gulf Coast League Twins in late June. In his two appearances, he struck out two and allowed two base runners while giving up one unearned run. His rehab was short lived as a week later he was taken off the 40-man roster and eventually released from the team. It was only five days later that the Twins then re-signed him to a minor league deal and assigned him back to AA Chattanooga. In the two months since he has not been able to come back from his triceps injury. Why did the Twins and Jorge part ways just to sign again five days later? It was actually nothing that either party had control over as Mike Berardino explains: <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> The Twins have a good problem ahead of them and that is that they have a lot of options for starting pitchers going into the 2019 season. You have the mainstays from 2018 in Odorizzi, Gibson, and Berrios while also expecting Pineda to be healthy as well as Meija, Gonsalves, Stewart, Slegers, Littel, and Romero all possible candidates to fill out the final spot. This is bad news for Felix Jorge, who will no longer be defined as a prospect in 2019, who also will be coming off a lost season. At this point, it is hard to project what Jorge will become in the future but the Twins must still have hope that he will contribute at some point if they re-signed him back in July knowing that he wasn’t going to pitch for a while. Depending on whether or not he can get healthy this offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Felix Jorge back in Spring Training in what may be his final shot at making the big league club.

I don't think they will DFA him as that will be bad PR, but I think his playing time will significantly decrease as the season goes on assuming he is still struggling and we are still out of it. I get what you're saying about Gibson. If he can maintain this level of production, then of course you keep him as a bonafide #2 starter. Of course that's not guaranteed, so I'm selling on him at his highest point thinking he will regress closer to his career norms. I do agree it's a long shot they trade Mauer, but you can't tell me it's a bad idea. They can trade him and still re-sign him in the offseason. Just out of curiosity, what makes you say Seattle? Cano is due back pretty soon here and they are on pace for 100+ wins without him.

Just a couple days ago LaVelle Neal III reported that the Twins are going to be sellers at this years trade deadlines. This isn’t surprising news as the Twins are currently 12 games back of Cleveland in the division and realistically have no shot at a wild card when the AL has four teams in two divisions on pace for 100+ wins. Moreover they are on a 6-game losing streak and are sporting a 2-8 record in their last 10 after and FanGraphs has there playoff odds sitting at 0.4%. As sellers, you have two questions you need to know the answer to: Who on your roster is available? What are your needs? In this write up I intend to share my opinions on those two questions. 1. Who is available? When looking at players who are available common practice is to start by looking at players on expiring contracts. That list includes the following players: Ervin Santana, Fernando Rodney, Bobby Wilson, Willians "Tortuga" Astudillo, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Jake Cave, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, Matt Belisle, and Logan Morrison. Next lets look at who would have value on the market (Note: it was very tempting to include "Tortuga" on this last but alas he just fell short). Ervin Santana, Fernando Rodney, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, and Logan Morrison are the players that I think hold some trade value. Of that list, the only player I would really like the Twins to hold onto is Escobar as his offense and versatility can help the team for years to come. The only player I would consider who isn't on an expiring contract is Kyle Gibson. Addison Reed might be another name to float out there, but at 29 years old I think he can be a staple in our bullpen for years to come. Starting Pitchers Ervin Santana - about a month ago I wrote about how to make room for him and now I'm writing about moving him. Man baseball is fun. Anyway, despite not pitching yet this year I can see a potential playoff team taking a flier on him, especially if an injury arises. Maybe not by the non-waiver July 31st deadline but more likely by the waiver deadline of August 31st. Lance Lynn - Sans his last start he has looked real good since April. Kyle Gibson - he has continued his strong second half from 2017 and has overachieved from what I thought back on March. As Andrew Thares wrote about just a couple days ago "the time to trade Kyle Gibson is now". Relief Pitchers Fernando Rodney - he has been better than expected this year. Probably won't be a closer anymore if he gets moved, but he will be sought after. Zach Duke - same story as Lynn...tough March/April but has been one of our best relievers since. I wouldn't mind to see him in a Twins uni for another couple years, but I think he'll hold good value at the deadline. Hitters Joe Mauer - of course he needs to waive his no trade clause, and maybe he would do that for a shot at a world series ring. It would be weird to see him in a different uniform, but he deserves a shot at a title. Remember, this is just a rental so he could still re-sign next year. Brian Dozier - it's been fun to watch Dozier grow into the player he is, but he's already said he doesn't intend to re-sign with the Twins. Hopefully he can figure things out like he has the past two years to increase his value. Logan Morrison - he does have an option for next year and it's not a bad amount at $8 million, but according to FanGraphs WAR he is having the worst year of his career. He doesn't have a ton of value with those numbers, but there is something there as a power bat versus righties off the bench. Honestly, Escobar probably holds the most value here (yes, ahead of Mauer) but I think he can be a contributing piece for us over the next few years. 2. What are your needs? Pitching. There's an old saying..."you can never have enough pitching" and it is oh so true. I actually like what the Twins have waiting in the wings with the likes of Trevor May, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Adalberto Mejia, and/or Stephen Gonsalves so I wouldn't say it's an immediate need. BUT..."you can never have enough pitching". From a positional perspective, I think Nick Gordon has the best bet to successfully fill shoes in 2019 at second for Dozier and is a good bet to see sometime in the Majors yet this season. Other than that, we possibly will need someone to bridge the gap between Mauer and Rooker and this player could either stay at 1B or move to DH if we are thinking long term. Also I think we need find a back up plan for Miguel Sano and this player could be another potential 3B or DH thinking long term. In short, I think a corner infielder and a pitcher should be on our radar. Our current starting outfield is under team control for many years to come and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Even with Buxton's offensive struggles there is plenty of value in his defense. What do you think? Who will the Twins deal? What are there needs? I look forward to reading your thoughts and continuing this discussion.

Right! Thanks, Tom.

1) You could tell by the title what this was about, so why waste the time to read and/or comment on it if you aren't worried about it? I'm all about constructive criticism, but your comment serves no purpose. 2) You must not like much of the content that is written on Twins Daily or any sports website for that matter. Much of what is written, and what is fun about writing, is trying to think ahead and predict what will happen.

IMO, I don't think Lynn has the stuff to be a great bullpen pitcher. I guess he could be a long reliever and give us those innings as needed. lukeduke1980 brought up a good point about possibly having an innings limit put on Romero in which case a move to the bullpen would make the most sense for him. I know they don't look great now, but I'm not ready to write off the Twins has a non-playoff team. That said, things may be different in a month and if we are clearly not a playoff team then trying to dump Lynn would be a good solution.

A week ago Ervin Santana made is 2018 debut with the double-A Chattanooga Lookouts and threw 2 innings (45 pitches) giving up 4 hits, 0 walks, 2 earned runs, while striking out 1. He was pulled early as there was a concern about his velocity, which topped out at 90 mph while he usually sits around 94. Because of this concern he will move down and pitch today for single-A Fort Meyers Miracle, according to Brandon Warne. With this development it is fair to think that we won’t see Ervin on the Twins roster until the end of June at the earliest. Whenever he is ready to make his season debut for the Twins there will be a tough decision for Paul Molitor to make on what to do with his rotation, and that’s what I want to address in this piece assuming the current starting 5 stays healthy. Option #1: Demote Fernando Romero As much as Molitor and Twins fans would not like to see this, I think it is a very likely scenario. Because of options (or the lack thereof) and performance, Romero is the only realistic candidate from the starting rotation. I couldn’t find data on minor league options (does anyone have a resource for this?), but I would guess that Odorizzi, Lynn, and Gibson are out of minor league options while Berrios has been the Twins best pitcher. That leaves Romero as the odd man out. In this case, he would be the first pitcher called upon after an injury or for double headers. Option #2: DFA Grossman and move a starter to bullpen This would be another tough decision for Molitor. Mauer is set to return very soon and I would think that will result in the demotion of Gregorio Petit, which then leaves the Twins with Adrianza, LaMarre, Grossman, and Wilson as their 4 bench players. If Molitor decides to go this route, then we would probably see LaMarre or Grossman as the player to be demoted which would leave a thin bench but a stacked bullpen. Personally, I think Grossman has earned the demotion but I thought that out of spring training too. It’s not uncommon for a starting pitcher to get some time in the bullpen early in their career and with how electric Romero has been this year I think this would be a great option. With the way successful teams have been built the last few years it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Twins to stack their bullpen with another dominant pitcher. Only downside of this is that he most likely wouldn’t be available to start again this year as his arm wouldn’t be ready to throw that much. Option #3: DFA Grossman and utilize 6-man rotation See above on why Grossman is the position player getting demoted. To be honest, I think this option is highly unlikely but it is something to consider. Pitchers (and baseball players in general) are creatures of habit and by nature are not fans of a 6-man rotation. This option allow him to continue to face major league hitting and it allows the Twins some flexibility if they do have injuries. Again, I don’t see this happening but also wouldn’t mind if it did. Personally, I would like to see Romero stay in the majors with whatever roster moves it takes. Realistically, I think option 1 is what is going to happen. Which option do you think is the best? Is there another option I didn’t consider? Lets discuss!

I think he's in, not first ballot, but in. That said, continue playing at an above average level for the next 2-3 years would solidify it even more. Also, thanks for linking to my article. Appreciate the share!

Not trying to open a can of worms here or attack your work. Unless I am missing it, you reference the phrases "high leverage", "medium leverage", and "low leverage" without ever defining what those actually mean. I know those definitions aren't exactly static, but some general explanation of what those means could be helpful. I interpreted this statement, "In his career, Mauer has a career .946 OPS, or a tOPS+ of 127 in 808 plate appearances with two outs and runners in scoring position", as you further proving he is clutch because he hits well with RISP + 2 outs. I wouldn't call it "clutch" if that happens in the first inning, but would might call it "clutch" if that happens in the 9th inning depending on the situation. It's not "clutch" if the game is out of reach in either direction. It is "clutch"if that happens in the 9th inning, we are losing, and he ties the game. It's even "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are tied, and it wins the game. It's EVEN "more clutch" if it's in the 9th inning, we are losing, and and it wins the game. I guess my point is what defines "clutch"? What defines low leverage v. medium leverage v. high leverage?

The Lindor home run was so awesome. I had the chills watching him run around the bases and pump up the crowd. The passion he has for the game and his country was so cool. I hope Eddie gets to experience the same thing today!

This. This is correct.

Nice job, Andrew. I think this is an unfair criticism of Mauer. I would be interested to see his BA/OBP/SLG in the 7th - 9th inning, 3 run or less game, with runners in scoring position. I know that anytime you have RISP or RISP w/ 2 outs it takes some clutch factor to get those guys in, but that's very different in the 1st inning than in the 9th inning with the game truly on the line. I also wonder how he fares as compared to other players in the MLB (2004-curent), rather than historically compared to players in the Twins organization. Also, his postseason OPS is awful...we have to be honest about that. Sometimes I think the irrational "hate" that Mauer gets is defended by irrational "love".

Yes - he is the face of the franchise and his jersey is popular. If we went buy jerseys we'd be in the hunt for Carew, Killebrew, and Puckett too. This has nothing to do with it. I don't speak for all fans, but I don't know if I ever bought a ticket just to see Mauer play. He's just not that type of player. I bought a ticket to watch Johan pitch, I bought tickets to see McGuire and Sosa, I bought tickets to see a really good Twins team in the mid-2000's, but I have never once bought a ticket to see Joe slap an opposite field single. This isn't me ripping on him...I appreciate everything about Mauer, but my point is that he's not that "must see" type of player IMO. If they bring him back it should only be based on the market value and whether they believe he makes the team better. Don't get me wrong - it would be awful to see Joe in another uniform but I'm also more impressed with wins than watching aging stars bring down a team. At this point, I don't see a viable replacement so as long as we can get him at a fair deal, then I see him in a Twins uniform for the next few years!

It's no secret that Joe Mauer is in the final year of his eight year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" has on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. There are really only three options.1. Stay with the Twins Personally, I think this is the most likely scenario. He's from here, his family is here, he's spent his entire career here, his personality and demeanor (although frustrating to fans) fits well with the "Minnesota nice" mantra, and the Twins are starting to become contenders. So what will it take for the Twins to keep him here? Since his move from catcher (2012), Mauer has played 813 games as a first basemen, which is good for 13th most among 50 qualified players. In that same time he has provided a 14.7 WAR which is good for 10th best: The "good": He's staying healthier, he's getting on base (6/50 in BA and 5/50 in OBP), and he's become one of the best defensive 1B in the game (#1 in UZR in 2017 among 21 qualified players).The "bad": He'll be 36 in April of 2019 (only six qualified players were 36+ years old in '17), he provides no power as a 1B/DH (42/50 in SLG from 2012-17) and despite being healthier he's still good to miss at least 20 games/year not including the days provides no defensive value as a DH.I think it's fair to assume that 2017 is the ceiling of what we can expect from Mauer in 2018 and beyond, although he has been lights out so far this season. Looking at salaries for players who are currently 36+ years old, 2017 and 2018 contract agreements, and salaries of other first basemen around the league, I would be looking for the Twins to give Mauer a two- or three-year deal at $8-$10 million/year not including incentives or player/team options. Again, I believe him signing with the Twins is the most likely scenario. I came up with the $8-$10 million range from looking at the following data. Yonder Alonso signed with the Indians for $8 million per year. Compared to Mauer he provides a little more power, less OBP, and a lot less defense. He's younger, coming off a career year, and also fits the "launch angle" ideal that so many hitters are trending towards. Ultimately, my opinion is that the pros and cons of both players provide a similar value to a team although the type of value they provide are different. I think that provides a sort of baseline going into next offseason. I also looked at players who signed in the 2016/17 offseason who were 36+ years old and although the median salary was $7.75 million a few of those guys are getting paid $13 & $16 million. If I were to include 35+ year olds, which is technically how old Mauer will be at the start of the 2019 season, the median is at $8 million and includes Yadier Molina (a career-long Cardinal) getting paid $20 million. Although the median is lower, I think the higher deals give Mauer/Shapiro some room to negotiate an above the median salary. Especially if Mauer performs similarly to how he did in 2017 and/or is able to hit like he currently is for a majority of 2018. 2. Sign Elsewhere I don't see this happening, but obviously this is a possibility. Assuming Mauer only has a few more years in the big leagues, he could be looking for a team to win now. Now being 2019 or 2020. Depending on what the Twins front office does in free agency over the next couple of years the Twins may or may not be legit World Series contenders. I hate to say it, but with Greg Bird not being able to stay healthy the Yankees may have an opening at first base that would be a good fit for Mauer. Teams like Houston, Boston, the Cubs, Dodgers, Indians and Nationals are also obvious contenders, but currently have a player who is under contract at first base. 3. Retire From what I have read/heard, there have not been any rumblings that Mauer is ready to hang them up. Doesn't mean it's not something to consider. Honestly, I almost think Joe would be more apt to retire than he would be to sign somewhere else. Moving somewhere else obviously would mean either moving his family or moving away from his family, which I don't think he would want to do. Click here to view the article

Fun read! Thanks, Nick. Damn Phil Cuzzi. Why is that not like Twins Daily tagline or a twitter account or something?? Even better maybe the name of someones blog!

I missed Bremer's remark, but that's awesome. Can't take anything for granted. Good article, Ted!

One of the biggest questions entering the 2018 season is what we can expect to get from Kyle Gibson. Much attention has been given to the differences in his first and seond half, so I'd like to take a look and see which version of Kyle Gibson we will get in 2018 or if it is somewhere in between.I don't just want to throw a bunch of statistics at you as that doesn't help determine if his second half is truly repeatable, but I do want to start there as that will guide the rest of the article. Here are a few stats that I think help explain the difference in overall results we saw from Gibson: Clearly, the biggest difference is that he did a lot more striking out and handed out a lot fewer free passes, which is a good recipe for any pitcher. Let’s take a second to appreciate that he had a 331 percent increase in his K/BB percentage from the first half to the second half, which I think helps explain the improvement of virtually every other stat. As reference, Gibson's career K/BB rate stands at 7.9 percent. So what adjustments did Gibson make that contributed to the dramatic difference between his two halves? I used Brooks Baseball pitch f/X data to help me answer this question. Below is an overview of some of the data I will be referencing. Download attachment: TrajMove1H.png Download attachment: TrajMove2H.png Gibson has long been known as a sinker ball pitcher who relies more on ground balls than swing and misses to get him through his work day. Interestingly enough, Gibson threw his sinker about 28 percent of the time in his second half appearances compared to about 40 percent of the time (also his career mark) in the first half. He relied much more on his fastball in the second half than he ever had through his career, especially as the first pitch he threw to batters. Getting ahead in the count, specifically throwing first pitch strikes, is key to a pitcher's success and allows him some flexibility in how he can approach the rest of an at-bat. Last year, some of the best pitchers in baseball, headlined by Clayton Kershaw, led the league in first pitch strikes. Another takeaway from the data above were the differences in pitch movement from his sinker, change up, and slider from each half. Essentially his sinker and change-up dropped more while his slider became more of a mix between a curve and a slider, which some would call a “slurve”. A change in release point can be credited for this change in pitch movement. As a visual, I have attached a graph of his average vertical and horizontal release point for each game in 2017. Vertical release point is measured from the top of the pitching rubber and horizontal release point is measured from the center of the pitching rubber. Download attachment: Type1H.png Download attachment: Type2H.png To summarize these graphs, Gibson lowered his arm angle slightly but the bigger difference was that he slid about a foot towards third base from the first half into the second half (see below). This gave hitters a new perspective from which they saw the ball released from Gibson. Again, these adjustments are part of the reason why his pitches created a different movement pattern in each half. So what does this mean for 2018? Like most, I tend not to look into spring stats too deeply, although he did have a solid, yet unspectacular spring. From video, I can tell you that Gibson has “looked” good this spring and that he has carried his adjustments noted above into spring training. That said, I think Gibson was able to fool a lot of batters in the second half of last season because he had changed his delivery and pitch selection. In other words, hitters had a scouting report on Gibson but then he didn’t follow it and was able to catch hitters off guard. Despite his second half numbers, Gibson is not a guy who is going to consistently strike out almost one batter an inning. He also will not be the pitcher who walked four batters per inning. He will fall somewhere in between. The great thing about 2018 is that Gibson is our number five guy which will help ease expectations from Twins fans. I would expect a typical pitching line for him to be 6 IP, 2-3BB, 4-5K, and 3-4 ER which is pretty good for a back end rotation guy, especially with the backing of a lineup that will be one of the best in the league. Click here to view the article

Good write up, Tom! I look forward to reading these this season. One thing I disagree with that I am seeing everywhere is Duke being labeled a lefty specialist. Yes, he does better against lefties, but have you seen his numbers against righties as a relief pitcher? .236/.328/.379 are his career numbers, but from 2014 - 2017 he held right handed batters to .221/.322/.353 with a 9.8 K/9. Not dominant, but pretty good and good enough to not be labeled a lefty specialist.

One of the biggest questions entering the 2018 season is what we can expect to get from Kyle Gibson. Much attention has been given to the differences in his 1st and 2nd half, so I'd like to take a look and see what version of Kyle Gibson we will get in 2018 or if it is somewhere in between. I don't just want to throw a bunch of statistics at you as that doesn't help determine if his 2nd half is truly repeatable, but I do want to start there as that will guide the rest of the article. Here are a few stats that I think help explain the difference in overall results we saw from Gibson: Clearly, the biggest difference is that he did lot more striking out and handed out a lot less free passes, which is a good recipe for any pitcher. Let’s take a second to appreciate that he had a 331 percent increase in his K/BB percentage from the 1st half to the 2nd half, which I think helps explain the improvement of virtually every other stat. As reference, Gibson's career K/BB rate stands at 7.9 percent. So what adjustments did Gibson make that attributed to the dramatic difference between his two halves? I used Brooks Baseball pitch f/X data to help me answer this question. Below is an overview of some of the data I will be referencing. Gibson has long been known as a sinker ball pitcher who relies more on ground balls than swing and misses to get him through his work day. Interestingly enough Gibson threw his sinker about 28 percent of the time in his 2nd half appearances compared to about 40 percent of the time (also his career mark) in the 1st half. He relied much more on his fastball in the second half than he ever has throughout his career, especially as the first pitch he threw to batters. Getting ahead in the count, specifically throwing first pitch strikes, is key to a pitchers success and allows him some flexibility in how he can approach the rest of an at bat. Last year, some of the best pitchers in baseball lead the league in first pitch strikes headlined by Clayton Kershaw. Another takeaway from the data above that helped was the differences in pitch movement from his sinker, change up, and slider from each half. Essentially his sinker and change up dropped more while his slider became more of mix between a curve and a slider, which some would call a “slurve”. A change in release point can be credited for this change in pitch movement. As a visual, I have attached a graph of his average vertical and horizontal release point for each game in 2017. Vertical release point is measured from the top of the pitching rubber and horizontal release point is measured from the center of the pitching rubber. To summarize these graphs, Gibson lowered his arm angle slightly but the bigger difference was that he slid about a foot towards third base from the first half into the second half (see below). This gave hitters a new perspective from which they saw the ball released from Gibson. Again, these adjustments are part of the reason why his pitches created a different movement pattern in each half. So what does this mean for 2018? Like most, I tend not to look into Spring stats although he did have a solid, yet unspectacular spring. From video, I can tell you that Gibson has “looked” good this spring and that he has carried his adjustments noted above into spring training. That said, I think Gibson was able to fool a lot of batters in the second half of last season because he had changed his delivery and pitch selection. In other words, hitters had a scouting report on Gibson but then he didn’t follow it and was able to catch hitters off guard. Despite his second half numbers, Gibson is not a guy who is going to consistently strike out almost one batter an inning. He also will not be the pitcher who walked 4 batters per inning. He will fall somewhere in between. The great thing about 2018 is that Gibson is our number 5 guy which will help ease expectations from Twins fans. I would expect a typical pitching line for him to be 6 IP, 2-3BB, 4-5K, and 3-4 ER which is pretty good for a back end rotation guy especially with the backing of a lineup that will be on of the best in the league.

With his lack of velo, his career will be defined by locating pitches and having a good repertoire. He seems to have the control/command part figured out, but as you noted, developing a 3rd pitch will be crucial.