Matthew Lenz

Thank you for catching that. I'm not sure how I screwed that up so badly! IMO, you can do your job and still not do it well, especially when you're handed a 9-run lead. Also, keep in mind, the Rangers made all three outs on the basepaths in the bottom of the 6th. That inning would have been a lot worse had they not helped him out there.

The Twins offense was due. It had been over a week since the Twins put up double -digit runs, and with Pedro Payano on the mound for the Rangers, tonight's result was somewhat predictable. Michael Pineda provided five solid innings and despite a rough outing from Devin Smeltzer out of the bullpen the Twins came out on top 13-6.Box Score Pineda: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 63.9% strikes (55 of 86 pitches) Bullpen (Smeltzer): 4.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Home Runs: Arraez (3), Sano (22), Rosario (27) Multi-Hit Games: Arraez (3-for-5), Cave (2-for-3), Gonzalez (4-for-5), Polanco (2-for-6) Top 3 WPA: Arraez (.170), Pineda (.115), Cave (.111) Twins Offense Strikes Early and Often The scouting report on right-handed pitcher Payano showed two things: 1) He has reverse splits with more success against left-handed batters, and 2) He struggles commanding the strike zone. That explains Sano batting second for the first time in his career as well as the five-run second inning where he was missing his spots badly after a quick first inning. Luis Arraez started the party with a home run, which seemed about as likely as Kenny Wu joining the Bash Brothers, what with Payano’s success against lefties. All Mighty Duck references aside, Arraez got it started again in the third with a two-out double down the right field line followed by a Marwin Gonzalez single to drive him in. After two full-count walks in the fourth, Payano’s night was over after just 3 1/3 innings although that didn’t mean much to the Twins hitters. The offense would go on to score 13 runs on 14 hits including three home runs. Pineda Looks Good in Return to Rotation Michael Pineda’s didn’t miss a beat after suffering a triceps strain during his August 1 start against the Marlins. If you haven’t been tracking him closely Pineda has been the Twins best pitcher (in terms of fWAR) since June 1 and he looked all the part tonight. It wasn’t until the fourth inning with two outs that the Rangers were able to get their first hit and at that point they were down by 10, which definitely made things easier for Pineda. With a home run to start the inning by Willie Calhoun followed by back-to-back singles, the Rangers scored their second run of the game on Jorge Polanco’s fourth error in his last three games. After a total of five hits, two earned runs, and 30 pitches Pineda would get through the fifth and give way to Devin Smeltzer out of the Twins bullpen. Throughout the night, Pineda was pinpointing his fastball and slider to the tune of six strikeouts and just one walk. The Twins will look to stay hot tomorrow against Mike Minor who’s having the best year of his career. Meanwhile, Odorizzi will take the bump for the Twins and look to continue pitching well after he’s given up one run or less in his last three starts. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

I mean career numbers are a little hard to compare here when Adrianza is experience his first extended run of success, IMO. I couldn't nail down precisely to Marwin's first 947 career AB's but through his 2015 season (1,121AB's) he had a OPS+ of just 89. It's funny to me you reference their career OPS+ to support your point but ignore the fact that in 2019 Adrianza is at 116 while Marwin is at 91.

Don't get me wrong, I definitely see the value in Kepler batting lead off. I would classify myself of the "new school" mentality for a vast majority of things pertaining to baseball but one "old school" idea I stick with is having table setters in your 1 and 2 spots followed by some power guys. Now, Kepler has been solid at getting on base by Arraez has been better. There isn't one number that can completely explain anything, but Kepler has a UZR/150 of 6.2 this season in 334 innings in CF. That's good for 14th of players who have 300 or more. Again, not saying that's the only stat to consider but I do think it's one of the better ones.

Yep, I acknowledged the small sample in my first sentence and I completely agree that I need to see more of Adrianza to believe he can sustain this, but I think this is a good opportunity to give him a chance. I understand that UZR and UZR/150 is not the end all be all of defensive stats but of players who have played at least 240 innings in RF, Marwin has the 12th worst UZR/150 so in his larger sample he's made it clear it's not a position of strength. You're absolutely right. If I was writing on article on who I think the Twins think is better than I would just look to see what line up Baldelli has been trotting out versus each pitcher and written about that. That wasn't the point. And the Twins aren't always right. I definitely believe there is a case for either player, but I (obviously) don't think it's as ludicrous of an idea as you make it seem.

Since mid-June the Minnesota Twins have been dealing with non-stop injuries to various players in their lineup. Luckily, until the current Byron Buxton injury, none of the injuries held any of the players out for an extended period. That said, the injuries have been so constant that the Twins haven’t been at full strength for much of the most important and arguably most difficult stretch of their 2019 season.With the emergence of super utility players like Luis Arraez and Ehire Adrianza as well as the help of veteran super utility Marwin Gonzalez the Twins have been able to maintain their historically potent offense. These players have been invaluable as the team has been dealing with key injuries to Buxton and C.J. Cron and slumping hitters like Jonathan Schoop and Jorge Polanco. Twins versus right-handed pitcher without Buxton and Cruz 1. Luis Arraez, 2B Since the start of August, Luis Arraez has been the regular second basemen with Jonathan Schoop starting every fourth game or so. As previously mentioned, the emergence of Arraez has been a huge development for the Twins and with a .415 OBP versus right-handed pitching I’d like to see him in the leadoff spot as a table setter. 2. Jorge Polanco, SS Polanco has been mashing from the left side of the plate all season with a .917 OPS. You could easily switch him and Kepler, but Polanco gets on base a little more and shows a little less power. 3. Max Kepler, CF Buxton being out for the foreseeable future makes Max our everyday center fielder where he has been an above average fielder. As you can probably tell from my lineup construction so far, I’ve never understood having a guy known for hitting home runs (i.e. Dozier and Kepler) batting lead off. As referenced above, him and Polanco could be switched as their numbers are very similar against right handed pitching but Kepler provides a little more pop which I want from a three hitter. 4. Mitch Garver, DH/C It’s time for Mitch to get as many as bats as he can and with Nelson Cruz out this may be the perfect opportunity for him. Get this, Garver has the fifth best OPS (1.146) of hitters with at least 100 at-bats when men are on base. This guy needs to be in the middle of the order on a daily basis even with Cruz healthy. 5. Jason Castro, C/DH Castro is in the midst of one of the best years of career but is being overshadowed by the guy he is sharing time with behind the plate. Nonetheless, with a .903 OPS versus righties he’s my pick to bat fifth. Once Cruz is healthy, there is still room for him in the line up and see you’ll see me mention later. 6. Miguel Sano, 3B Since lowering his hands and getting used to the adjustment in late June/early July, Sano has been on fire. As a right-handed hitter he has more success against lefties, but since July 1st he has a .854 OPS against righties. 7. Eddie Rosario, LF As has been noted many times as of late, Rosario has been struggling mightily at the plate since the All-Star Break specifically by chasing pitches out of the strike zone. It’s time for him to be reeled in a little bit and put lower in the line up. 8. Ehire Adrianza, RF Although a small sample (15.0 innings), Adrianza is the Twins second best right fielder based on his UZR while Marwin has been the worst by a long shot. He’s also a slightly better hitter versus right-handed pitching than Marwin. 9. C.J. Cron, 1B C.J. Cron has been a nice addition to the club but hasn’t been great against right-handed pitching. I don’t mean to be a broken record, but I’d love to see Garver to get some reps at first to get his bat in the line up. Surprisingly, C.J. has been a below average first basemen defensively so it could be a net positive to get a better hitter some time. The Twins have one of the best lineups in baseball against right-handed pitching and oddly enough that lineup gets stronger with the return of two right-handed hitters in Cruz and Buxton. When Buxton returns Adrianza will undoubtedly lose some playing time. When Cruz returns I’d love to see Garver get some time at first so we can keep his bat in the line up. Cruz DH’s in the three-hole followed by Kepler (CF/RF), Garver (1B), Castro ©, etc. Twins versus left-handed pitcher without Buxton and Cruz 1. Luis Arraez, DH See what I said above except replace his .411 OBP with a .441 OBP versus lefties. He’s not quite as good as a second basemen as Schoop so I slid in him into the DH spot. Once Cruz is healthy, then Arraez should be your second basemen. 2. Mitch Garver, C Can you tell him I huge fan of “Garv Sauce”? Polanco and Kepler really struggle against lefties so you’ll see them further down in the line up. As good as Garver has been against righties he’s even better against southpaws. He’s the far better hitter in this scenario than Castro. 3. Miguel Sano, 3B As has always been the case, Sano’s has the traditional split where he has more success as right-handed batter facing a left-handed pitcher. You’ve seen the reflect in Baldelli’s lineup construction of late as well. 4. C.J. Cron, 1B Despite his defense, Cron is one of the better Twins hitters versus left-handed pitching so he should be in the lineup. 5. Ehire Adrianza, RF He’s been one of the better hitters against southpaws this year and although doesn’t have the typical power of a five hitter he could restart the line up as he as an OBP of .400 and OPS of .926 against lefties. 6. Jonathan Schoop, 2B With the absence of Cruz and Buxton, the Twins lineup thins out pretty quickly against left-handed pitching. Schoop has actually been pretty solid against lefties this year and still should get semi-regular at-bats as a power threat in this lineup. He’s rated as a slightly better defender than Arraez which is why I have him getting the start in the field. Once Cruz is healthy, then you might get Schoop some playing time against lefties to keep him engaged and fresh. 7. Max Kepler, CF As a lefty facing left-handed pitching, Kepler has the 18th-best hitter in baseball of players who have over 100 at-bats. So although he’s much better against righties, comparatively, he’s actually pretty good. 8. Eddie Rosario, LF Creating a line up isn’t always about just stats. Statistically speaking, Marwin Gonazlez should be the play here as he is the better player both offensively and defensively. Whether we like it or not, Players have egos and feelings and I don’t think Rosario would take it too well if he started being platooned with Gonzalez against lefties. 9. Jorge Polanco, SS Statistically, Jorge is our worst hitter against left-handed pitching even when you take his hot start into consideration. In fact, once Buxton is healthy you could argue starting Adrianza or Gonzalez in place of Polanco against left-handed pitching. Adrianza would be a major downgrade defensively and Gonzalez, in a very small 9.0 inning sample, would be an upgrade. That said, like Rosario, he might not take too kindly to sitting out against lefties. Things look vastly different without Buxton and Cruz in the line up. If and when they are healthy again in 2019, that will make our v. LHP line up significantly stronger but will also force Baldelli to make some tough decisions specifically in regards to Polanco and Rosario. In all reality, I think Adrianza and Schoop are the two guys that lose playing time once Buxton and Cruz are healthy. What do your lineups look like? Is worrying about the egos and feelings of your players something you consider when constructing a line up? Debate it out in the comments! Click here to view the article

The Twins and Indians faced off in the third game of their four-game series that was delayed by two hours because of the rain on Saturday night. Jake Odorizzi provided the Twins with six solid innings, while Adam Plutko rolled through three innings on 40 pitches before the Twins hit him hard for two runs in the fourth. Minnesota prevailed, winning 4-1.Box Score Odorizzi: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 60.7% strikes (62 of 102 pitches) Bullpen: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Kepler (32), Gonzalez (13) Multi-Hit Games: Polanco, Gonzalez, Adrianza Top 3 WPA: Odorizzi (.300), Arraez (.110), Rogers (.082) Odo inefficient, yet effective Per the FSN broadcast, this was the fourth consecutive start that Odorizzi had thrown 100+ pitches but of the four only his last start versus Atlanta lasted six innings. Part of this is due to Odorizzi’s lack of success the third time through the line up, which seems to be the reason, in most of the cases, he’s been pulled mid- inning, as was the case tonight. Although he struck out six and induced mostly weak contact, Odorizzi also walked four and faced eight three-ball counts while allowing six hits. All that said, he did his job by stranding all nine baserunners and giving the Twins a much needed solid outing from their starter. Twins offense breaks through Despite having only one hit through three innings, the Twins entered the fourth with an xBA of .290 per Baseball Savant. That coupled with an average 92.7 mph exit velocity meant that it was only a matter of time before the balls started falling for hits. With two-outs in the fourth, Garver snuck a ball past Jose Ramirez down the third base line for a double which was then followed by Arraez’s first career triple. Back-to-back singles by Gonzalez and Adrianza made the game 2-0 before C.J. Cron was thrown out at the plate for the third out. After lead off home runs in the fifth and seventh innings by Kepler and Gonzalez, respectively, the Twins took a 4-1 lead. Other notes Puig’s 455 foot home run was Sergio Romo’s first run given up in his last 16 inningsThe Indians finished with eight hits, despite an xBA of .222, per Baseball SavantTwins were 3-for-3 with RISP while the Indians were just 1-for-12 and left 20 runners on basePer FSN broadcast, this was Taylor Rogers seventh save of six or more outs this yearTwins are now 6-6 versus the Indians this year and 27-30 against teams at or above .500This was a much needed win for the Twins who have now gone 2-4 during a week many touted as the most important of their season. They will look to secure a series tie on Sunday and move the lead back to two games over the Indians as Berrios draws the start. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

The Twins are on pace to destroy the MLB record for home runs in a season by one team by 40...

Thanks for catching that. I just misspoke. I was looking at his stats as a RHB.

Fair point. Their OPS is 24 points lower and wRC+ is 5 points lower, comparatively, which doesn't seem like a "struggle" or "considerably worse" to me unless you're really trying to look for a flaw in the most potent offense in MLB history. But nonetheless, if we're splitting hairs, then the OP was correct. Fun tidbit that doesn't necessarily mean anything...the Twins are 24th in the league in the number of "high leverage" plate appearances (266). Only other competitive team lower is the Yankees (261) and the Diamondbacks are first with (363).

If you're talking solely about today, then sure. If you're talking as a whole, then you should know that the Twins have the 8th best OPS and wRC+ in "high leverage" situations as defined by FanGraphs.

It was going to be Gibson's start but since he pitched an inning in the 18-inning game they pushed him back and started Thorpe. I was surprised Duffey wasn't the most responsible according to WPA, at least.

The Twins were part of yet another five-plus hour day of baseball, but this time it wasn’t because of extra innings. Despite the White Sox ace being cut short due to a three-hour rain delay the Twins couldn’t take the Sunday rubber match losing just their seventh series on the season.Box Score Thorpe: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 67.1% strikes (47 of 70 pitches) Bullpen (Duffey, Morin, Magill) : 3.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Nelson Cruz (16) Multi-Hit Games: None Top 3 WPA: Garver (.222), Magill (.073), Cruz (.042) Bottom 3 WPA: Gonzalez (-.215), Buxton (-.136), Arraez (-.115) Lewis Thorpe Debuts Who knows what the final line for Lewis Thorpe would have looked like if it wasn’t for mother nature ending his debut after five spectacular innings and only 70 pitches. All afternoon Thorpe was dotting the edge of the strike zone with his fastball and slider to the tune of a 20.0% swinging strike rate on those two pitches, which accounted for strike three on six of his seven strikeouts. Even on Moncada’s two-run home run he hit the spot Garver gave him, but unfortunately Moncada loves the ball low and away as a left handed hitter where he has slugged .571 in 2019, per Brooks Baseball. Other than that blip, which was really Garver’s blip, Thorpe was lights out showing a mastery of his pitches and allowing the defense to help him any time a runner reached base. Offense Sputters Against All-Star Starter Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, was effective and efficient against one of the most potent offenses in baseball allowing only one baserunner and striking out four over five innings. Of course it helped that the starting lineup was missing a few “non all-stars” like Eddie Rosario (IL) and Max Kepler (knee/rest) as well as Miguel Sano (though Sano did come in as a pinch hitter late in the game). Deservedly, Giolito was named an All-Star right as the game was getting back underway. Twins Hit Bullpen Hard But Cannot Overcome Deficit Many on Twitter viewed the rain delay as a good thing, as it meant the end of the road for Giolito and that proved to be true as the Twins came out hitting the ball hard. Nothing came to fruition in the top of the sixth despite three hard hits, but they were able to put three on the board in the seventh thanks to a Nelson Cruz two-run home run and a Sano pinch-hit RBI single. Unfortunately, in the bottom half of the sixth inning Tyler Duffey got roughed up allowing four consecutive singles and two earned runs before being relieved by Mike Morin who got the last two outs of the innings while stranding two runners. Magill followed Morin in the bottom of the seventh and eighth, striking out three while only allowing one hit and hitting upper-90’s on the radar gun with his fastball, which is an interesting and possibly significantly development. The Twins continued to put good wood on the ball in the eighth and ninth, but were unable to score, specifically with Garver in scoring position with only one out in the final frame. Other tidbits: -Odorizzi was named an All-Star. He will join Jorge Polanco as the only Twins representatives ... for now. -As mentioned above, Magill’s fastball topped out at 98 miles per hour multiple times today while it has an average velocity of 95.7 miles per hour. -Buxton's highlight grab in the bottom of the fourth had a xBA (expected batting average) of .670 and a catch probability of five percent. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/...488620444250112 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we're going to look at a Cleveland lefty. No, not that one.Oliver Perez, LHP, 37-years-old Cleveland Indians ( in AL Central) Vesting option in 2020 for $2.75M if he reaches 55 games in 2019. 2019: 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 12.15 K/9, 1.35 BB/9 in 20.o IP 2018: 1.39 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.97 K/9, 1.95 BB/9 in 32.1 IP What’s to Like? This would be a long shot since teams typically don’t make trades within their division and they’re also competing for a Wild Card spot, but Oliver Perez would be a perfect buy-low candidate as his 4.42 ERA doesn’t look pretty. Perez's peripherals would suggest some progression coming his way as opposing hitters' exit velocity, hard hit and barrel rates are all below the league average while his K rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) are above the league average, per Statcast. Furthermore, Fangraphs has his FIP in the low threes and his SIERA in the high twos, which gives you an indicator of how poor Cleveland is defensively. Concerns The vesting option will most likely be met, as he’s already at 28 games. That means he’ll be with the team next year, although $2.75M is not much to quabble over. His four seamer, which he throws 14.5 percent of the time, has been the cause of his inflated numbers as batters are slugging 1.071 off the pitch whereas it was literally .000 in 2018, per Statcast. There hasn’t been a drop in velocity so that’s not a concern, but he has thrown the fastball in the strike zone, and more importantly, in the middle of the strike zone more than last year which could be the reason for hitters success. This is an option that should be cheap if they are available but can still effective pieces and an improvement over the bottom half of our bullpen. Also, I’d like to think that pitch location is something that can be overcome with an adjustment in pitch mechanics or different pitch sequencing. See Also Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today we'll take a look at Cardinals right-hander John Gant.John Gant, RHP, 26-years-old St. Louis Cardinals (35-33 in NL Central) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 1.66 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.13 BB/9 in 38.0 IP 2018: 3.47 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.50 4.50 K/9, BB/9 in 114.0 IP (19 games started) What’s to Like? He’s just under 27-years-old and could be with the team for three more years, which could turn out to be pretty valuable if his first 33 innings as a full-time reliever are any indication. With a 1.64 ERA his peripherals would obviously suggest the possibility for negative regression, but Gant has elite stuff that has been fooling hitters all year. Per Statcast, the movement of his changeup (23.9 percent usage), four seamer (23.1 percent), and curveball (11 percent) are all considered top 10 or better in the league. This leaves out his most oft used pitch, the sinker (33.1 percent), against which opposing hitters have a slugging percentage of .301 in 2019. Concerns I don’t mean to be overly optimistic, but there isn’t a lot to be concerned about here since he’s been so good. That said, some things to consider: given his age, contract situation, and success he’ll be more expensive than Oliver Perez and Craig Stammen, the move from the NL to the AL means he would be facing better hitting (primarily a DH instead of a pinch hitter), and as he gains more innings, hitters will have more of a scouting report on him. The concerns are really grasping at straws here. Gant would be a phenomenal add to our bullpen and would probably fit right into an eighth-inning role. See Also Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

On top of what Mr. Brooks said, you have to understand that teams don't want to be in the middle. They either want to be contending for a World Series or #1 over draft pick. Specifically right now, when there are 3-4 teams that are clearly better than everyone else...do you really want to fight for a wild card spot when you have little chance of winning it all? I don't think there is a right or wrong answer to that question, but something that FO's are considering...

It's no secret, the Twins will be seeking bullpen help as the trade deadline approaches. The current group of relievers has helped get the Twins where they are, but let's face it, there is plenty of evidence that suggests upgrades are required. Who may be available? Today, we'll take a look at Seth Lugo of the Mets.Seth Lugo, RHP, 29-years-old New York Mets (33-34 in NL East) Three more years of team control via arbitration. 2019: 2.51 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.69 K/9, 1.59 BB/9 in 32.1 IP 2018: 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.15 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 in 101.1 IP (5 games started) What’s to Like? Lugo is a good, not great, reliever that would fit in nicely as a bridge between the starters and eighth or ninth inning guys and could come at a relatively cheap cost. That said, he has effectively pitched a majority of the games in the eighth inning for the Met, so the potential is there for him to come in during a high leverage situation. He is right around league average in his K rate, hard hit rate and xwOBA, and has been very good at limiting free passes as a reliever. As laid out in this article, he also has reverse splits by dominating lefties this year which is something the Twins bullpen is in need of. Concerns Being eligible for arbitration makes him more valuable, and more expensive, than if he were a half year rental. That said, that could also benefit the Twins if he does well. The biggest area of concern would be Lugo’s strand rate with runners in scoring position. Per FanGraphs, he has a 69.4 percent strand rate overall which includes an 80.0 percent rate in “high leverage” situations and just a 9.4 percent (!!!!) rate with men in scoring position. With men in scoring position, his K/9 stays about the same (11.81) but his BB/9 more than doubles (5.06). This could indicate that, with runners on, Lugo is dancing around the strike zone a little more trying to miss bats and get hitters to chase. Something a simple change in philosophy could cure in a matter of no time. Regardless of the concerns, I do think this is one of the better, cheaper options for the Twins to pursue. See Also Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target Click here to view the article

As the Twins get ready to finish up the four game series against the Blue Jays, Michael Pineda will take the mound for what will be his fourth start of the season. The early returns of his two-year contract have looked good so far as he was another cheap, low-risk signing by the Twins new management during the 2018 offseason. As we’ve seen how shaky our bullpen can be, much of the Twins success this year will rely on their starters and specifically could depend on what version of Pineda they get.Pineda exploded on the scene in 2011 with the Mariners as an All-Star and finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting. Unfortunately, that success was short lived as he spent all of the 2012 and 2013 seasons recovering and rehabbing from a shoulder injury, which can be a career ending or altering injury for a pitcher. Prior to this injury Pineda featured fastball that sat at 95 miles per hour, used an above average slider as his out pitch, and mixed in a circle change-up about six percent of the time. Brooks Baseball did count 23 “sinkers” in 2011 (and 36 for his career), but that’s not enough data to glean anything meaningful from and is likely a misinterpretation of the pitch that was actually thrown. After two lost seasons and a trade to the New York Yankees, Pineda finally returned to the mound for 509 innings from 2014 to 2017. A partially torn ulnar collateral ligament required Tommy John Surgery, causing him to miss a season and half. In his time with the Yankees, his velocity never completely rebounded, sitting at about 94 miles per hour and his slider didn’t have quite the same bite. Despite this, his K-BB percentage held steady and converted in to a ground ball pitcher, although the added ground balls hurt his ERA a little bit, which is evident by his xFIP being almost a full run better than his ERA. Velocity and movement are the two things that make a pitcher effective, but can also be less effective after a pitcher returns from an arm injury, which has help us set some “norms” for what we we’re looking for from Pineda. To give it to you straight, the small sample we have on Pineda in 2019 looks good up front but the peripherals should leave you a little tentative. First thing that sticks out is that his fastball is sitting at 92 miles per hour, which isn’t too surprising as he is still getting back into things after recovering from Tommy John, but is something to definitely keep an eye on if he starts to get hit. As far as his other pitches go, his slider has much less movement than in years past but his circle change has the same velocity and movement as usual. Consequently, he has reverted back to a fly ball pitcher which has flipped his ERA and xFIP by about half of a run. On the other hand, his K-BB rate is the best of his career and he’s been having success because hitters are making contact on pitches outside of the zone significantly more than usual (71.8 percent in 2019 versus 57.1 percent for his career), which leads to less walks and weaker contact. It’s way too early to jump to any conclusions on these figures, but it something to keep an eye as he gets back into the swing of things after a year and a half hiatus. Over his next few starts, the two big things to look at are his fastball velocity and how much “help” he’s getting from the opposing hitters. These tendencies should give you an idea on how the rest of the season will look for Pineda. Click here to view the article