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The methodology I used was actually how John Bonnes dispelled the notion on the impact of playing in the AL Central back in 2018. As he put it, “I promise you, you can do this with a spreadsheet and it takes no math more complicated than some long division” and even as a high school math teacher I can assure you that all it took was some elementary understanding of arithmetic. At the end of the article, you will be provided a link to a google sheet where I broke down their schedule in every way I could think of. Disclaimer: Using the Vegas win totals is not an exact scientific method to make any confident predictions and projections about the Twins season. Rather this was more of a fun exercise to run through to take a look at where things could be “easier” or “tougher” depending on their opponents. March/April (16 home, 15 away, 5 off) The Twins start the season with their third toughest month of the year. The Twins play the Athletics six times right away which is good for multiple reasons: (1) gets one West Coast road trip off the travel itinerary for the year; (2) gets three of their 10 9:00pm CDT or later start times out of the way;and (3) gets six of their 30 games against projected playoff teams out of the way, all while they are at their freshest. After playing some middling or worse teams in the middle of the month, they will then end the month back on the West Coast facing the Dodgers. Notable Former Twins coming back: C.J. Cron and Jonathon Schoop (DET); Martin Perez (BOS) Notable Fan Giveaways: 04/02 - Quarter Zip Pull-over; 04/18 - Corduroy Twins Bomber Cap May (13 home, 16 away, 3 off) As the weather really starts to warm up so should the Twins, as they’re schedule really starts to cool down. Outside of facing the Yankees in New York from the 26th to the 28th, the Twins will mostly be facing teams that are projected to finish significantly below .500 (Giants, Royals, Tigers, Orioles) while also mixing in 10 games against their only “competition” for the division in the White Sox and Indians. If all goes as planned in 2020, it’s not crazy that on June 1st the Twins could have close to a double digit lead in the division. For comparison, they had a 10.5 games lead in June 1st in 2019. Notable Former Twins coming back: Kohl Stewart (BAL) Notable Fan Giveaways: 05/04 - Twins Star Wars T-shirt; 05/18 & 19 - Reusable Twins Tote; 05/22 - Morneau HOF Pin; 05/23 - Morneau HOF Bobblehead June (16 home, 10 away, 4 off) In June the Twins will face the toughest competition of the season, as they play 10 games against projected AL playoff teams (Rays, Astros, Yankees) and only have 10 games against opponents who are projected to be under .500. Moreover, the Twins will face the toughest 10-game stretch of their season with back-to-back-to-back series against the Brewers (2), Yankees (4), and Astros (3) with their tenth opponent being the Rockies. Luckily, they spend most of the month at home and with only one eastern road trip before coming home against Milwaukee and New York. I would plan on being at Target Field for as many games as possible from June 16th to June 21st. Notable Former Twins combing back: Jason Castro (LAA) Notable Fan Giveaways: 06/06 - Twins Cap; 06/16 - Josh Donaldson Bobblehead; 06/27 - 30 HR Bomba Club Bobblehead July (10 home, 15 away, 6 off) Although June has a higher projected opponent winning percentage, you could argue that July is the toughest month of the season. Their average opponent winning percentage is less than a point away from June but they play 60-percent of their schedule on the road. A matter of opinion if this is a good or bad thing, the Twins will come out of the All-Star break with their longest road trip of the season (10 games). The good - they are (hopefully) rested and healthy; the bad - they only have 9 off days the rest of the season when they return home. Outside of the Tigers, every team they play on the road in July is projected to be slightly below (Rangers) or above (Indians, Diamondbacks, and White Sox) .500. The end of the month will begin their fourth toughest 10-game stretch of the season with a two-game set against the Dodgers and a game on the last day of the month against the Astros. The silver lining here is that this leads in to the trade deadline and the Twins will get a good look at how they handle a tough schedule after June and July put together. Notable Former Twins coming back: none Notable Fan Giveaways: 07/31 - Baby Blue Twins Replica Jersey August (14 home, 13 away, 3 off) Right as the dog days of summer really starts to heat up, the Twins' dog days of their schedule are in the rear view mirror. August is bookended with tough opponents (Houston and Cleveland at the start; Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland at the end) but the 16 games in between those opponents are against the Royals, Red Sox, White Sox and Tigers. This will be a great opportunity for the Twins to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division and possibly make some headway at the #1 or #2 seed in the playoffs. Notable Former Twins coming back: C.J. Cron and Jonathon Schoop (DET) Notable Fan Giveaways: 08/05 - TOPPS Baseball Card Pack Giveaway; 08/15 & 16 - Back to School Item; 08/19 - Native American Heritage Celebration T-Shirt; 08/21 - Knit Can Koozie; 08/22 - Twins T-Shirt September (12 home, 12 away, 3 off) The Twins start the easiest month of their schedule off by finishing their four-game series against the Cleveland Indians in what could figuratively or literally wrap up the division by September 3rd. Outside of three games against the Rangers and three games against the Padres, the month of September will be filled with games against other AL Central teams. If the Twins haven’t clinched the divison by the 3rd, then you could see them clinch between the 4th and 10th where they play six consecutive games against the White Sox and Indians. This again will be an interesting time of year as the Twins' easy schedule could set them up for a home series or two in the playoffs. Notable Former Twins coming back: Kyle Gibson (TEX); C.J. Cron and Jonathon Schoop (DET) Notable Fan Giveaways: 09/06 - Case IH Tractor; 09/18 & 19 - Twins Stocking Cap; 09/20 - T.C. Kids Mug Other Tidbits: The Twins longest homestand of 10 games will be their second homestand of the season from April 17th to April 26th. Could provide an interesting make-up scenario if we have a wet spring. Their longest stretch of consecutive games is 17 from May 8th to May 24th. Luckily, 10 of those games are home. Per Baseball Savant, the Twins will travel 28,834 miles in 2020. That is the sixth fewest in all of baseball. https://gfycat.com/thickfakebluefish Again, this isn’t an exact science but a fun exercise in looking ahead to the season. Below you will find some of the resources that I referenced above. Schedule Analysis - feel free to make a copy and mess with this yourself Full Twins Schedule Full Promotional and Giveaway Calendar MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't see why this needs to take but maybe one extra day, if that. The mini competitions can happen on the same day. -
Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And wouldn't that be entertaining??? You're inviting an audience who maybe doesn't like baseball but loved this movie to watch baseballs biggest stars have a little fun. I'm in! -
Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I did think about that but I also figured that anything can happen during the current format of the homerun derby and All-Star Game. If the Player's Association thinks swinging a bat as hard as you can repeatedly for minutes at a time is not a risk then I wouldn't think diving once and jumping against a padded wall once would be any more or less of a risk. -
Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think my point in the marketing issue is not about being a "celebrity", but it's the fact that a vast majority of the world knows who LeBron James and Tom Brady are whether you follow the NBA or NFL or not. I would guess that if you don't follow MLB at all you likely don't know who Mike Trout is and he is projecting to be the greatest baseball player of all-time. Again, it's not about the "celebrity" it's about marketing and branding in sport that is fading out. -
Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair and transparent, in 2019 baseball did have the best numbers out of the 4 major sports in terms of their All-Star games. That said, if we look at the bigger picture...21.2 million people watched Game 7 HOU v. WSH and 98.2 million people watched the Superbowl. Baseball, or any sport, will likely never trump Super Bowl ratings but a difference of 77 million people is staggering. The bigger picture is that we need to draw more people into the sport. -
Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As someone who comes to a baseball site like Twins Daily, it's not surprising that you (and I and most everybody on this site) enjoy the game the way it is. The fact is, the popularity of baseball as a whole and, specifically the All-Star Game, has been declining for all of America consistently for the last 10 years. I'm not saying my idea is the best idea, but it wouldn't hurt to try something new to market your sport and players. -
Lets Redesign MLB All-Star Week
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As a disclaimer: this is an idea to solve a marketing problem more than an All-Star Game problem. That said, many people will take this as me saying there is something wrong with the game itself. I, a baseball fanatic, enjoy All-Star Week. The rest of America doesn't necessarily feel the same. Proof is in the ratings... https://twitter.com/Lenzy2108/status/1232661650706182144?s=20 -
Last week, our Jeremy Nygaard designed an overhaul to Major League Baseball’s regular season after Rob Manfred’s ideas of restructuring the playoffs for 2022. Below is a proposed redesign for MLB’s All Star Weekend that will result in better marketing and showcasing of the sports best players.Last week, our Jeremy Nygaard designed an overhaul to Major League Baseball’s regular season after Rob Manfred’s ideas of restructuring the playoffs for 2022. Below is a proposed redesign for MLB’s All Star Weekend that will result in better marketing and showcasing of the sports best players. In the overhaul mentioned above, teams will be provided with an entire week for All-Star festivities which will begin in the last few days of June and extend into the beginning of July. The redesign of the All-Star festivities are inspired from the three other major american sports. Total All-Stars Selected There will be 60 All-Stars selected which is about 15 less than normal. The position you play...doesn’t matter. The team you play for...doesn’t matter. The league you play in...doesn’t matter. Lets see the top sixty players in baseball compete. How All-Stars Will Be Selected This week is as much for the fans as it is for the players (and their bonuses), so a fan vote is still important and will account for the first 45 or, 75-percent, of the players selected. The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the Baseball Writers’ of America Association (BBWAA). The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the players and managers of MLB. The final three, or five-percent, of the players will be selected through an objective process using WAR. This will hopefully reduce the number of “snubs” by having so many different parties having a say in who is selected. Competitions for the Week The Futures Game and Celebrity Softball game will still be part of the week. The rest week will be filled with both individual and team based competitions. Being that players weren’t named All-Stars by position there won’t be a formal baseball game played at all during the week. Why is that? The first thing that comes to mind when I think of any of the four major sports most recent All-Star weekends is how Jarvis Landry dominated a game of dodgeball, how Ja Morant threw an alley-oop to Zion Williamson, or Luka Doncic and Trae Young making shots from half court. I can’t tell you who won any of the actual games. MLB All-Star Week will be filled with mini-games where players can win individual awards as well as an overall team award. Individual Competitions - these are optional for players to participate in and, when noted, will have limits on how many players can participate. To encourage players to participate, their results could impact the weekend down the road. Home Run Derby (top eight All Stars by home run) - very similar to the current format but instead of total home runs hit, players will advance by their home run distance. When I say advance, I mean lets ditch the bracket and lets see the top-four (of eight) advance to the semi-final, and the top-two advance to the final. Again, home run distance is all that matters.Skills Course (no limit) - players will start in centerfield and perform the following skills. Like the NBA Dunk Contest, there will be a panel of former players and manager or BBWAA members to assign a score to the fielding parts of the competition.Players will attempt to rob one home run ballPlayers will return to centerfield and attempt to make a diving catch on a short flyballPlayers will move into shortstop and attempt to field one ground ball and make an accurate throw to first.Players will move in front of the pitchers mound and throw one ball as hard as they can. They will earn a score on a 10-points scale based on their speedPlayers will move to the batter's box and perform two bunts. They will earn a score out of 10 points based on where the ball lands in a grid that is painted on the field.On the second bunt, the player will immediately run to first base (the clock starts when the bat makes contact with the ball or when the ball crosses home plate if the bunt is missed). Players will earn a score out of 10 points based on their time to first base.“Top Golf” (no limit) - players will essentially take batting practice but will attempt to hit certain targets on the field. Like “Top Golf”, you will get points for how close to the center of the target you hit and how far away the target is from home plate.Team Competitions - there will be 15 teams (four players per team). The top 15 fan vote getters will be captains and will draft three additional players. The teams will be separated into three pools (five teams per pool) and will compete against one other team in the competitions below. The winner from each pool and one wildcard will then advance to a bracket style wiffle tournament. Any pool tiebreakers will be broken based on the scores of the individual competition that each teammate participated in.Dodgeball - no special rules, just your classic “dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge” game. Last man standing gets a win for their team.Stolen Base Challenge - one team will try to steal second. The other team will have a pitcher, catcher, first basemen, and shortstop ready to try and pick off the runner or throw him out on the steal attempt. Once all four runners have gone, the teams will flip flop roles. Team with the most stolen bases wins. If there is a tie, teams will compete in an NHL shoutout-esque stolen base-off.Glove Flip Game (best of three) - this is a very popular game that amateur players play before the actual game starts. Eight players will stand in a circle, alternating a representative from each team, and use their gloves to flip the ball continuously until the ball hits the ground. There will be a judge on whether it was a bad flip or a miss and that player will be assessed a strike. Three strikes and you’re out. Traditionally, a player will turn his hat sideways after strike one, backwards after strike two, and then they’re out after strike three.The Primetime Wiffle Ball TournamentIn place of the traditional All-Star Game, the three pool winners and one wild card will compete in a wiffle ball tournament. To air three games during primetime, a new inning will not start once the game is 30 minutes old. There will not be any baserunning and hitters will start with a 1-1 count (like slow pitch softball) and pitchers will throw at a wiffle ball strike zone. There will be one pitcher and three fielders, and the field will be set up as seen below. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2020-02-25 at 7.43.07 PM.png Admittedly, a radical idea with a lot of intricacies and explaining it by word definitely makes it overwhelming to imagine. Looking at the three other major American sports, it seems “mini competitions” are taking over their All-Star festivities. My thoughts are that there is no better way to grow the game, especially with the youth, then allow the professionals to relive their youth in front of a national audience. What do you think? Should the current set up be left as-is? What would you change? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Last week, our Jeremy Nygaard designed an overhaul to Major League Baseball’s regular season after Rob Manfred’s ideas of restructuring the playoffs for 2022. Below is a proposed redesign for MLB’s All Star Weekend that will result in better marketing and showcasing of the sports best players. In the overhaul mentioned above, teams will be provided with an entire week for All-Star festivities which will begin in the last few days of June and extend into the beginning of July. The redesign of the All-Star festivities are inspired from the three other major american sports. Total All-Stars Selected There will be 60 All-Stars selected which is about 15 less than normal. The position you play...doesn’t matter. The team you play for...doesn’t matter. The league you play in...doesn’t matter. Lets see the top sixty players in baseball compete. How All-Stars Will Be Selected This week is as much for the fans as it is for the players (and their bonuses), so a fan vote is still important and will account for the first 45 or, 75-percent, of the players selected. The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the Baseball Writers’ of America Association (BBWAA). The next six, or ten-percent, of the players will be selected by the players and managers of MLB. The final three, or five-percent, of the players will be selected through an objective process using WAR. This will hopefully reduce the number of “snubs” by having so many different parties having a say in who is selected. Competitions for the Week The Futures Game and Celebrity Softball game will still be part of the week. The rest week will be filled with both individual and team based competitions. Being that players weren’t named All-Stars by position there won’t be a formal baseball game played at all during the week. Why is that? The first thing that comes to mind when I think of any of the four major sports most recent All-Star weekends is how Jarvis Landry dominated a game of dodgeball, how Ja Morant threw an alley-oop to Zion Williamson, or Luka Doncic and Trae Young making shots from half court. I can’t tell you who won any of the actual games. MLB All-Star Week will be filled with mini-games where players can win individual awards as well as an overall team award. Individual Competitions - these are optional for players to participate in and, when noted, will have limits on how many players can participate. To encourage players to participate, their results could impact the weekend down the road. Home Run Derby (top eight All Stars by home run) - very similar to the current format but instead of total home runs hit, players will advance by their home run distance. When I say advance, I mean lets ditch the bracket and lets see the top-four (of eight) advance to the semi-final, and the top-two advance to the final. Again, home run distance is all that matters. Skills Course (no limit) - players will start in centerfield and perform the following skills. Like the NBA Dunk Contest, there will be a panel of former players and manager or BBWAA members to assign a score to the fielding parts of the competition.Players will attempt to rob one home run ball Players will return to centerfield and attempt to make a diving catch on a short flyball Players will move into shortstop and attempt to field one ground ball and make an accurate throw to first. Players will move in front of the pitchers mound and throw one ball as hard as they can. They will earn a score on a 10-points scale based on their speed Players will move to the batter's box and perform two bunts. They will earn a score out of 10 points based on where the ball lands in a grid that is painted on the field. On the second bunt, the player will immediately run to first base (the clock starts when the bat makes contact with the ball or when the ball crosses home plate if the bunt is missed). Players will earn a score out of 10 points based on their time to first base. [*]“Top Golf” (no limit) - players will essentially take batting practice but will attempt to hit certain targets on the field. Like “Top Golf”, you will get points for how close to the center of the target you hit and how far away the target is from home plate. Team Competitions - there will be 15 teams (four players per team). The top 15 fan vote getters will be captains and will draft three additional players. The teams will be separated into three pools (five teams per pool) and will compete against one other team in the competitions below. The winner from each pool and one wildcard will then advance to a bracket style wiffle tournament. Any pool tiebreakers will be broken based on the scores of the individual competition that each teammate participated in. Dodgeball - no special rules, just your classic “dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge” game. Last man standing gets a win for their team. Stolen Base Challenge - one team will try to steal second. The other team will have a pitcher, catcher, first basemen, and shortstop ready to try and pick off the runner or throw him out on the steal attempt. Once all four runners have gone, the teams will flip flop roles. Team with the most stolen bases wins. If there is a tie, teams will compete in an NHL shoutout-esque stolen base-off. Glove Flip Game (best of three) - this is a very popular game that amateur players play before the actual game starts. Eight players will stand in a circle, alternating a representative from each team, and use their gloves to flip the ball continuously until the ball hits the ground. There will be a judge on whether it was a bad flip or a miss and that player will be assessed a strike. Three strikes and you’re out. Traditionally, a player will turn his hat sideways after strike one, backwards after strike two, and then they’re out after strike three. The Primetime Wiffle Ball Tournament In place of the traditional All-Star Game, the three pool winners and one wild card will compete in a wiffle ball tournament. To air three games during primetime, a new inning will not start once the game is 30 minutes old. There will not be any baserunning and hitters will start with a 1-1 count (like slow pitch softball) and pitchers will throw at a wiffle ball strike zone. There will be one pitcher and three fielders, and the field will be set up as seen below. Admittedly, a radical idea with a lot of intricacies and explaining it by word definitely makes it overwhelming to imagine. Looking at the three other major American sports, it seems “mini competitions” are taking over their All-Star festivities. My thoughts are that there is no better way to grow the game, especially with the youth, then allow the professionals to relive their youth in front of a national audience. What do you think? Should the current set up be left as-is? What would you change? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Case Against Extending Jose Berrios
Matthew Lenz replied to Patrick Wozniak's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Berrios being the staff ace is arguable. In a one game winner take all, I want Pineda before Berrios for sure and possibly Hill. To be transparent, I’m suffering from Berrios fatigue. He’s a good pitcher but I’m sick of people treating him like he’s anything more than that. -
With the news that former Twins great Justin Morneau will be the lone member of the 2020 Twins Hall of Fame class, this piece will look at three other candidates for 2021. Being that it’s just a matter of time, this piece will not look at Joe Mauer, but will look for other less obvious candidates.With the news that former Twins great Justin Morneau will be the lone member of the 2020 Twins Hall of Fame class, this piece will look at three other candidates for 2021. Being that it’s just a matter of time, this piece will not look at Joe Mauer, but will look for other less obvious candidates. Was it surprising to anyone else that Mauer was not named as an inductee with Morneau? It seems super fitting for Mauer and Morneau to enter the Twins Hall of Fame as the M&M boys of the mid-2000/early-2010 Twins. Regardless, Mauer will not be an inductee this year but will undoubtedly be sometime in the near future. Per the Twins website, “the Twins Hall of Fame [was established in 2000 and] annually recognizes uniform personnel who have made significant contributions to the franchise and game of baseball across the Upper Midwest”. Here are three other Twins who are potential candidates for the 2021 class. Roy Smalley For the better part of nine seasons, Roy Smalley was the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins, including his lone All-Star season in 1979. He is the best Twins shortstop of all-time and helped the team win its first World Series title in 1987. He’s already been inducted into the USC Athletic Hall of Fame and the College Baseball Hall of Fame. In his post playing career Smalley has spent 17 seasons in some role on the Twins broadcast team. Per the Twins website, “[smalley] serves as President on the Board of Directors for the nonprofit organization Pitch In For Baseball and is an advocate for the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Twin Cities”. If you only consider his playing career then it becomes a much more arguable case, but when you look at the whole picture I think Smalley is deserving of being inducted in 2021. He’s been contributing to the franchise in one form or another for about 45-percent of its time in Minnesota. Corey Koskie His career with the Twins was short lived with only six plus seasons as their anchor at third base and his entire career was cut short due to concussions. Arguably, he is the greatest third basemen the Twins have ever had (for now) even garnering an MVP vote after his 2001 campaign. He’s even a member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame which Morneau currently cannot say. In his post playing career, he is giving back to the baseball community through coaching right here in the Twin Cities area and has also started a podcast called “How I Got Here with Corey Koskie” where he interviews athletes on the path they took to get where they are in their careers. This is another case where the whole picture makes Koskie a deserving candidate in my eyes. Yes, he was only here for six years, but as a player he was a key cog in the team going from contraction to three consecutive division championships. Furthermore, his continued work in the local community shouldn’t go unnoticed. Ron Gardenhire “Gardy” is the second winningest manager of all-time and led his teams to more playoff appearances than any other manager of the franchise. Most importantly, he was another person who led the team from contraction to six division titles in nine seasons. His community outreach isn’t readily available in a google search but his down to earth personality and humility during his time as manager would lead one to assume he’s a very giving person. His tenure with the Twins was overshadowed by his lack of postseason success, but the bigger picture cannot be missed here. I’m not sure when people become eligible but I’d think Gardy is near a lock when he is first put on the ballow. Who are some names I missed? Are there others you’d consider? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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With the news that former Twins great Justin Morneau will be the lone member of the 2020 Twins Hall of Fame class, this piece will look at three other candidates for 2021. Being that it’s just a matter of time, this piece will not look at Joe Mauer, but will look for other less obvious candidates. Was it surprising to anyone else that Mauer was not named as an inductee with Morneau? It seems super fitting for Mauer and Morneau to enter the Twins Hall of Fame as the M&M boys of the mid-2000/early-2010 Twins. Regardless, Mauer will not be an inductee this year but will undoubtedly be sometime in the near future. Per the Twins website, “the Twins Hall of Fame [was established in 2000 and] annually recognizes uniform personnel who have made significant contributions to the franchise and game of baseball across the Upper Midwest”. Here are three other Twins who are potential candidates for the 2021 class. Roy Smalley For the better part of nine seasons, Roy Smalley was the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins, including his lone All-Star season in 1979. He is the best Twins shortstop of all-time and helped the team win its first World Series title in 1987. He’s already been inducted into the USC Athletic Hall of Fame and the College Baseball Hall of Fame. In his post playing career Smalley has spent 17 seasons in some role on the Twins broadcast team. Per the Twins website, “[smalley] serves as President on the Board of Directors for the nonprofit organization Pitch In For Baseball and is an advocate for the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Twin Cities”. If you only consider his playing career then it becomes a much more arguable case, but when you look at the whole picture I think Smalley is deserving of being inducted in 2021. He’s been contributing to the franchise in one form or another for about 45-percent of its time in Minnesota. Corey Koskie His career with the Twins was short lived with only six plus seasons as their anchor at third base and his entire career was cut short due to concussions. Arguably, he is the greatest third basemen the Twins have ever had (for now) even garnering an MVP vote after his 2001 campaign. He’s even a member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame which Morneau currently cannot say. In his post playing career, he is giving back to the baseball community through coaching right here in the Twin Cities area and has also started a podcast called “How I Got Here with Corey Koskie” where he interviews athletes on the path they took to get where they are in their careers. This is another case where the whole picture makes Koskie a deserving candidate in my eyes. Yes, he was only here for six years, but as a player he was a key cog in the team going from contraction to three consecutive division championships. Furthermore, his continued work in the local community shouldn’t go unnoticed. Ron Gardenhire “Gardy” is the second winningest manager of all-time and led his teams to more playoff appearances than any other manager of the franchise. Most importantly, he was another person who led the team from contraction to six division titles in nine seasons. His community outreach isn’t readily available in a google search but his down to earth personality and humility during his time as manager would lead one to assume he’s a very giving person. His tenure with the Twins was overshadowed by his lack of postseason success, but the bigger picture cannot be missed here. I’m not sure when people become eligible but I’d think Gardy is near a lock when he is first put on the ballow. Who are some names I missed? Are there others you’d consider? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Opinion: Manfred Proposes a Playoff Restructure
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
God forbid we add a marketing opportunity and a little bit of fun! -
Opinion: Manfred Proposes a Playoff Restructure
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
A "gimmicky TV special revenue" to some can also be called marketing to others. Especially in a sport that is desperate for good marketing. -
Opinion: Manfred Proposes a Playoff Restructure
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think I said any of this, other than going with the "dilution" theory. Yes, anything can happen in any sport. But that doesn't mean that any and every time should get a shot at competing in the playoffs. Adding games to any sport will never "hurt" the playoffs or that sport. More games = more money. -
Opinion: Manfred Proposes a Playoff Restructure
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't know how well this would work out but it sounds fun! -
Opinion: Manfred Proposes a Playoff Restructure
Matthew Lenz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Why does it have to be awkward? Just because you pick a certain time doesn't mean it's a sign of disrespect. I would bet that the 2019 Houston Astros would have picked the Tampa Bay Rays in the Division Series over the Yankees or Twins. Not because Tampa Bay was a bad team but because the Yankees and Twins offenses were that good. -
On February 10th, Joel Sherman of the New York Post released an exclusive article laying out Rob Manfred’s proposal for a new playoff structure. The news sure had the Twitterverse, including current and former players, like Trevor Bauer and Trevor Plouffe, stirring, ready to share their reaction.This piece will summarize the proposal and then include some subjective commentary on how it could impact baseball. After reading, I look forward to hearing what you think and what ideas, if any, you have on a possible restructure. So let's start with a quick bullet point summary of the proposal: Increase playoff teams from five to seven in each league, which introduces two additional Wild Card teams.The team with the best record in each league will receive a bye to the Division Series.The Wild Card Series would be a three-game series where all games take place at the home of the teams with the best record.The division winner with the second-best record would choose who they play of the three lower Wild Card teams.The division winner with the third-best record would choose who they play of the two remaining lower Wild Card teams.The last two Wild Card teams remaining will play each other.There will no longer be Game 163s... the tiebreaker at the end of the regular season will be their head-to-head record.There will be a “selection show” on the last day of the regular season where teams will pick in a reality TV-esque show.I believe that the playoffs should be as exclusive as reasonably possible. I still don’t like the fact that the playoffs were expanded in 2012, and believe that the team that loses the Wild Card play-in game should not be credited with a playoff appearance. That’s right, in my eyes, the Twins did NOT make the playoffs in 2017... sorry, not sorry. Needless to say, I don’t like expanding the playoffs even more as it takes away some of the meaning of making a playoff appearance. Furthermore, by expanding the playoffs I think you encourage teams to remain complacent. If you decide to truly “tank” you’re not going to be vying for one of the last Wild Card spots even with the expansion. On the other hand, if you are an average to slightly above average team expected to win ~85 games, you now have the opportunity to appease your fan base by “making the playoffs” without feeling the pressure to add an expensive or high-impact piece. Oh, and owners get the added financial benefit of playing at least two extra games without the payroll commitment. All that said, I love the rest of the proposal. You don’t need to expand the playoffs to allow the top division winner to choose their opponent. Strategically, a team might decide to play the best team available right away while they know the health of their players or if they feel they match up better against the team. That’s one aspect of the proposal I would change: Why does the division winner have to choose from one of the Wild Card winners? It wouldn’t be completely crazy to see one of the Wild Card teams actually have a better record than the third-best division winner. While you’re at it, give me an hour-long selection show special for some added drama. I wouldn’t hate to see the current one-game playoff change to the proposed best-of-three series where the Wild Card team with the better record hosts all three games. Anything fluky can happen in one game, so that’s not a great measure of who is truly the better team. And if the losing team puts up a respectable fight in the series, I’d even consider crediting them with a playoff appearance. What do you think of the proposal? Does it deter tanking? Would you make any changes to the current structure? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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This piece will summarize the proposal and then include some subjective commentary on how it could impact baseball. After reading, I look forward to hearing what you think and what ideas, if any, you have on a possible restructure. So let's start with a quick bullet point summary of the proposal: Increase playoff teams from five to seven in each league, which introduces two additional Wild Card teams. The team with the best record in each league will receive a bye to the Division Series. The Wild Card Series would be a three-game series where all games take place at the home of the teams with the best record. The division winner with the second-best record would choose who they play of the three lower Wild Card teams. The division winner with the third-best record would choose who they play of the two remaining lower Wild Card teams. The last two Wild Card teams remaining will play each other. There will no longer be Game 163s... the tiebreaker at the end of the regular season will be their head-to-head record. There will be a “selection show” on the last day of the regular season where teams will pick in a reality TV-esque show. I believe that the playoffs should be as exclusive as reasonably possible. I still don’t like the fact that the playoffs were expanded in 2012, and believe that the team that loses the Wild Card play-in game should not be credited with a playoff appearance. That’s right, in my eyes, the Twins did NOT make the playoffs in 2017... sorry, not sorry. Needless to say, I don’t like expanding the playoffs even more as it takes away some of the meaning of making a playoff appearance. Furthermore, by expanding the playoffs I think you encourage teams to remain complacent. If you decide to truly “tank” you’re not going to be vying for one of the last Wild Card spots even with the expansion. On the other hand, if you are an average to slightly above average team expected to win ~85 games, you now have the opportunity to appease your fan base by “making the playoffs” without feeling the pressure to add an expensive or high-impact piece. Oh, and owners get the added financial benefit of playing at least two extra games without the payroll commitment. All that said, I love the rest of the proposal. You don’t need to expand the playoffs to allow the top division winner to choose their opponent. Strategically, a team might decide to play the best team available right away while they know the health of their players or if they feel they match up better against the team. That’s one aspect of the proposal I would change: Why does the division winner have to choose from one of the Wild Card winners? It wouldn’t be completely crazy to see one of the Wild Card teams actually have a better record than the third-best division winner. While you’re at it, give me an hour-long selection show special for some added drama. I wouldn’t hate to see the current one-game playoff change to the proposed best-of-three series where the Wild Card team with the better record hosts all three games. Anything fluky can happen in one game, so that’s not a great measure of who is truly the better team. And if the losing team puts up a respectable fight in the series, I’d even consider crediting them with a playoff appearance. What do you think of the proposal? Does it deter tanking? Would you make any changes to the current structure? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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We now have ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2020. After (obviously) looking at the projections of total home runs where Steamer has the Twins at 262 and ZIPS at 264, the attention was then turned to look for notably different projections.I started by sorting both groupings by WAR and noticed right away that Randy Dobnak was projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him projected for a WAR of 2.1 whereas Steamer is at just 0.7. For reference, Dobnak contributed a 0.8 fWAR in 2019 in just 28 1/3 innings pitched. Comparing K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and ERA it’s clear that Steamer doesn’t quite buy into his 2019 campaign like ZIPS does, although the biggest explanation for this is innings pitched. Steamer has him pitching just 90 innings in 2020 whereas ZIPS has him at 147 innings. Regardless, a 0.7 fWAR over 90.0 innings is quite a bit different than 0.8 fWAR in 28 1/3 innings. It would be fair to temper expectations for the Twins 2019 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, as he only gets to 147 innings due to injuries from the starting staff. Many Twins fans are awaiting the true breakout of Jose Berrios and view 2020 as the year it will happen. After a good first half in 2019 he struggled to carry that into the second half of the season. Unfortunately, both ZIPS and Steamers view him as a “quality” starter in 2020 which isn’t what you want to hear about your number one. Quite literally, both projections have him average six innings per start and giving up close to three runs, although ZIPS is slightly more optimistic on him which turned out to be a theme between the two projections. Essentially, both projections view him as a slightly better version of Kyle Gibson’s career as a Twin which is another thing you don’t want to hear about your number one. On the offensive side, Twins utility man and third catcher Willians Astudillo is projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him contributing 1.5 WAR whereas Steamer has him at just a 0.3 WAR. This is largely due to Steamer projecting him for just 50 at-bats, which is realistic considering the signing of Alex Avila and 2019 emergence of both Jake Cave and Ehire Adrianza as quality role players. Like Dobank, at this point in his career, Astudillo’s comical character may overshadow his flaws as a contributor at the major league level. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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I started by sorting both groupings by WAR and noticed right away that Randy Dobnak was projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him projected for a WAR of 2.1 whereas Steamer is at just 0.7. For reference, Dobnak contributed a 0.8 fWAR in 2019 in just 28 1/3 innings pitched. Comparing K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and ERA it’s clear that Steamer doesn’t quite buy into his 2019 campaign like ZIPS does, although the biggest explanation for this is innings pitched. Steamer has him pitching just 90 innings in 2020 whereas ZIPS has him at 147 innings. Regardless, a 0.7 fWAR over 90.0 innings is quite a bit different than 0.8 fWAR in 28 1/3 innings. It would be fair to temper expectations for the Twins 2019 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, as he only gets to 147 innings due to injuries from the starting staff. Many Twins fans are awaiting the true breakout of Jose Berrios and view 2020 as the year it will happen. After a good first half in 2019 he struggled to carry that into the second half of the season. Unfortunately, both ZIPS and Steamers view him as a “quality” starter in 2020 which isn’t what you want to hear about your number one. Quite literally, both projections have him average six innings per start and giving up close to three runs, although ZIPS is slightly more optimistic on him which turned out to be a theme between the two projections. Essentially, both projections view him as a slightly better version of Kyle Gibson’s career as a Twin which is another thing you don’t want to hear about your number one. On the offensive side, Twins utility man and third catcher Willians Astudillo is projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him contributing 1.5 WAR whereas Steamer has him at just a 0.3 WAR. This is largely due to Steamer projecting him for just 50 at-bats, which is realistic considering the signing of Alex Avila and 2019 emergence of both Jake Cave and Ehire Adrianza as quality role players. Like Dobank, at this point in his career, Astudillo’s comical character may overshadow his flaws as a contributor at the major league level. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Alright, we’ve all had time to be excited about the Minnesota Twins making an impact move and landing MLB Trade Rumors' fifth-best free agent of 2020. Now, it’s time to look at the other side: why isn’t this a good deal for the Twins as they enter their competitive window?[DISCLAIMER: My punishment (okay, not actually a “punishment” per se) for writing and publishing a piece on Matt Hall the day the Bringer of Rain was signed was writing a piece opposing the signing. Mr. Donaldson, I assume you’re reading this and please know that I love you’re going to wear a Twins uniform for the next few years!] I think the easiest opposition to this, which I’ve seen on Twitter, is to say that the Twins haven’t answered their biggest need in a starting pitcher. Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron played passably at the hot corners in 2019 so bringing them back and saving the money for a frontline starter, whether it be via free agency or trade, is how $92 million should have been spent. Possibly the next easiest criticism is his age. Giving a four-year, $92 million deal to a guy entering his age-34 season is undoubtedly a risk. I think there are two parts to this theory, which is to look at the average aging curve for him as a hitter and him as a defender. In a series of articles from Jeff Zimmerman, he explored the topic of the aging hitter and found an interesting pattern: on average, hitters enter the league at their best and decline as they years go one. In other words, there is not a true aging “curve”. Download attachment: aging_curve_wrcp.jpg Using wRC+ as the measurement , Zimmerman created the above display to show the aging curve. As noted in the legend, each color represents a different era where the “06 to 13” era is the post-PED’s era and is the data that we should use to predict how Donaldson will age. In 2019, his age-33 season, Donaldson had a wRC+ of 132 and Zimmerman’s data would suggest that Donaldson would decrease in 2020 so much so that he would become a below average hitter and end his tenure as a Twin as an awful hitter. Although this much of a decline at the plate seems unlikely, I think it’s fair to think that some decline will happen each season from 2019 to 2023 and that we will likely be paying Donaldson more than he is worth in the last year or two of his contract. On the other hand, the defensive aging “curve” is a little harder to predict as defense is generally harder to measure anyway. Regardless, Jeff Zimmerman found a similar pattern when using UZR to predict future performance. Although Donaldson’s UZR numbers have been a bit sporadic, which isn’t unusual, he’s been an “above average” defender or worse by FanGraphs standards since 2016. Using the chart above, it’s likely that he will be a liability at third base for at least half of his contract. With the extension of Sano, there won’t be anywhere for Josh to go other than becoming a designated hitter. Maybe this was one factor of choosing the Twins over the Braves? The final opposition to this article is looking at the impact a $23M average annual value (AAV) salary will impact on keeping our current young studs like Berrios and Buxton, our future prospects like Lewis, Graterol, etc., and/or acquiring another impact player. Although it’s a step in the right direction, the Donaldson signing put the Twins right in the middle of the pack, in terms of payroll, at about $138M. There are currently only four teams in Major League Baseball who have more than one player who is averaging $20M or more in AAV, so it seems unlikely the Twins would join such a small group of teams. Even if we lower the AAV to $15M there are only 10 teams who have more than one player that make as much. In short, acquiring a second impact player via trade or free agency seems unlikely. If any of the players mentioned above want to test the waters of free agency then the Twins will likely lose out in a bidding war, which means they will need to sign those players to team friendly deals like they did with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano. This relies heavily on the players preference of security over money and the players becoming or remaining as big reasons for the Twins winning. As with most multi-year deals, there is some risk involved. The longer the contract and the older the player the more the risk increases. In the end, time will tell if the Josh Donaldson contract provides the value that all Twins fans are assuming it will. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Devil's Advocate: Why the Josh Donaldson Deal Isn't Good for the Twins
Matthew Lenz posted an article in Twins
[DISCLAIMER: My punishment (okay, not actually a “punishment” per se) for writing and publishing a piece on Matt Hall the day the Bringer of Rain was signed was writing a piece opposing the signing. Mr. Donaldson, I assume you’re reading this and please know that I love you’re going to wear a Twins uniform for the next few years!] I think the easiest opposition to this, which I’ve seen on Twitter, is to say that the Twins haven’t answered their biggest need in a starting pitcher. Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron played passably at the hot corners in 2019 so bringing them back and saving the money for a frontline starter, whether it be via free agency or trade, is how $92 million should have been spent. Possibly the next easiest criticism is his age. Giving a four-year, $92 million deal to a guy entering his age-34 season is undoubtedly a risk. I think there are two parts to this theory, which is to look at the average aging curve for him as a hitter and him as a defender. In a series of articles from Jeff Zimmerman, he explored the topic of the aging hitter and found an interesting pattern: on average, hitters enter the league at their best and decline as they years go one. In other words, there is not a true aging “curve”. Using wRC+ as the measurement , Zimmerman created the above display to show the aging curve. As noted in the legend, each color represents a different era where the “06 to 13” era is the post-PED’s era and is the data that we should use to predict how Donaldson will age. In 2019, his age-33 season, Donaldson had a wRC+ of 132 and Zimmerman’s data would suggest that Donaldson would decrease in 2020 so much so that he would become a below average hitter and end his tenure as a Twin as an awful hitter. Although this much of a decline at the plate seems unlikely, I think it’s fair to think that some decline will happen each season from 2019 to 2023 and that we will likely be paying Donaldson more than he is worth in the last year or two of his contract. On the other hand, the defensive aging “curve” is a little harder to predict as defense is generally harder to measure anyway. Regardless, Jeff Zimmerman found a similar pattern when using UZR to predict future performance. https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/675410540064210944 Although Donaldson’s UZR numbers have been a bit sporadic, which isn’t unusual, he’s been an “above average” defender or worse by FanGraphs standards since 2016. Using the chart above, it’s likely that he will be a liability at third base for at least half of his contract. With the extension of Sano, there won’t be anywhere for Josh to go other than becoming a designated hitter. Maybe this was one factor of choosing the Twins over the Braves? The final opposition to this article is looking at the impact a $23M average annual value (AAV) salary will impact on keeping our current young studs like Berrios and Buxton, our future prospects like Lewis, Graterol, etc., and/or acquiring another impact player. Although it’s a step in the right direction, the Donaldson signing put the Twins right in the middle of the pack, in terms of payroll, at about $138M. There are currently only four teams in Major League Baseball who have more than one player who is averaging $20M or more in AAV, so it seems unlikely the Twins would join such a small group of teams. Even if we lower the AAV to $15M there are only 10 teams who have more than one player that make as much. In short, acquiring a second impact player via trade or free agency seems unlikely. If any of the players mentioned above want to test the waters of free agency then the Twins will likely lose out in a bidding war, which means they will need to sign those players to team friendly deals like they did with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano. This relies heavily on the players preference of security over money and the players becoming or remaining as big reasons for the Twins winning. As with most multi-year deals, there is some risk involved. The longer the contract and the older the player the more the risk increases. In the end, time will tell if the Josh Donaldson contract provides the value that all Twins fans are assuming it will. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

