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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Yesterday, I read this and got depressed. Then I looked at the LAA spring training box scores and saw that Bard's first two outings were perfect, and got even more depressed. Later in the evening, I saw that Bard was shelled in yesterday's appearance, and it made me happier. Where should I seek counseling?
  2. jkcarew
    Fair enough. That makes sense when looked through the lens of how flipping them would be viewed by Polanco, the still-developing incumbent. So instead, I'll be slightly disappointed that Gordon was playing 2B while Gregorio Petit was playing SS. Anyway, we'll get the more definitive view over the first 20 games or so for Rochester...because that roster will have at least one experienced SS on it. Meanwhile his small number of AB's have been very encouraging IMO.
  3. jkcarew
    Slightly disappointing to see Gordon playing second in spring training...especially at the same time Polanco is at short. Seems like an early indication that they feel Polanco's defensive ceiling at SS is better than Gordon's. Given Polanco's limitations, I'd take that as a nail in the coffin in terms of hopes that Gordon will be a SS. Having said that, the small number of at-bats I've seen are very encouraging, and he may have the potential to be above average defensively at second (one would think given his overall athleticism?)
  4. jkcarew
    Nothing to see here. I would have questioned everything I thought I knew about Dozier as a competitor if he had decided to forgo free agency. I love him based on his offensive production and based on the way he plays. But, based on our organizational depth, I wouldn't expect the Twins to be super aggressive trying to sign him. Mauer is a completely different personality and in a completely different situation. I fully expect his approach to free agency to be different than Dozier's.
  5. jkcarew
    I've read this a few times here. And, no. He can't. There is no evidence to suggest the Twins would even consider it in an abolute emergency. He has exactly zero appearances in the OF over the last two seasons, and a total of 2 starts the year before that. 2012 was the last time a MLB team saw fit to give him even as many OF starts as Grossman had last year. Escobar would play OF (and has) before they would move Morrison out there.
  6. jkcarew
    I would guess that north of 80% of the starts for the 4th outfielder (assuming Kepler/Rosario are healthy) will come against left-handed starters. That would argue for Grossman over Granite. Although interestingly, Granite has a bit of a history of reverse splits. Still, I think the Twins will opt for Grossman's bat in this scenario. If there are injuries, then I think you look for Granite to be the replacement 'every-day' 3rd outfielder. Granite plays every day at Rochester, then if/when there is an OF injury with the big club, he gets called up. I think that will be the start-of-the-year plan. Kepler needs to make a significant step forward against left-handed pitching, or he will lose value for the Twins, including trade value.
  7. jkcarew
    Injured during spring training? Trevor May...yes. Ervin Santana...no. Shouldn't the theme of the story be "injured during previous season, but did nothing the entire off-season and underwent surgery once Spring Training began"? That would be a longer list...or at least have more top-end players/prospects on it.
  8. jkcarew
    Agreed. But, especially when considered as a group, all (mentioned) 26 or younger, the trend should be up for the next few years. I have the patience of a man who owns ticket stubs from the '87 and '91 series. I'll just shut up now.
  9. jkcarew
    Why not? It is likely that Buxton, Kepler, Sano, and Rosario will be better offensively (as a group) when they are 27-29 than 24-26. That would be a normal outcome. There are opportunities at the 1B/DH spots for more production, etc. Meanwhile, who are the current offensive needle-movers that would be gone? Only Dozier, presumably. Look, I think we're all desperate to win now, but it would not be unreasonable if someone, (maybe especially a new FO) viewed the prime window to be beyond 2018. In fact, I'd be extremely worried about how they view the young core if they DIDN'T feel that way. I agree that such an approach still doesn't require throwing in the towel on 2018.
  10. jkcarew
    Tip of the hat.
  11. jkcarew
    Absolutely is. Eroded his performance by the time he was in his late 20's, and prematurely ended his career. As I remember, though, with Hrbek the media tended to laugh it off...just a good 'ole boy that wants to mix some bowling and fishing in with his baseball...'one of us', and all that. Interesting. Having said that, I would like to see Sano carrying less weight. Increase the odds that he can be a serviceable 3rd baseman (which absolutely would help the Twins)...and even if not, would prolong the back-end of his career.
  12. jkcarew
    I've decided that, until they actually prove otherwise, I choose to believe our number 3 can play major league shortstop and our number 2 will be a starter. Makes me happier.
  13. jkcarew
    We have an obvious offensive comp for Gordon, that being Polanco who played with the same teams at the same age for his 19, 20, and 21 years...and just two years in front of Gordon. Year 19 (Cedar Rapids) Polanco 308/362/452 Gordon 277/336/360 Year 20 (Fort Myers) Polanco 291/364/415 Gordon 291/335/386 Year 21 (Chattanooga) Polanco 289/346/393 Gordon 270/341/408 Against right-handed pitching, Gordon looks better. It comes down to defense, and finding a bit of an answer against left-handed pitching. If he can play a solid major-league SS...(pretty huge divergence of opinion among the experts here)...and he can OPS+ 100(ish) which seems possible, that is a very valuable player. With regard to where he ranks...it's hard for some...me included...to wrap my head around a high school kid taken number 5 overall that ends up being a high floor, relatively low ceiling prospect. It's usually the other way around when a high-school kid is taken that high. But it could work out. This year is huge, obviously.
  14. jkcarew
    Yep. I think most (including me) that feel like Palacios is being under-valued in some of the reaction, still would have made the same 'choice' regarding which of the four to trade for Odorizzi...and absolutely would have pulled the trigger on this deal. Whether we end up being right about that...whether it end's up being a good trade...I'll tell you in three years
  15. jkcarew
    It was 11 HR is 276 plate appearances. Sorry.
  16. jkcarew
    I agree. PART of the reason Palacios is ranked significantly behind our other three SS prospects is simply that one of those was a number 5 overall draft pick, one a $4 million Dominican bonus baby, and the other a number 1 overall pick. The 13 HR in under 300 PA last year at Cedar Rapids was a bit of an eye-opener...and, if nothing else, the trade seems to validate that MLB teams project Palacios as a SS...which is something we don't necessarily know is the case with all three of our other top SS prospects. Having said that, I agree this is a trade you make every time you get a chance. A position of organizational depth for someone that has a reasonable chance to make the major-league club a little better.
  17. jkcarew
    Honestly, even before the disappointing (so far) off-season, I was more excited about 2019 than 2018...and more excited about 2020 than 2019. And the FO is acting as if they felt the same. I'm not saying that I'd be willing to defend what has transpired so far. This certainly has rattled the faith that the FO would take advantage of any future "whatever it takes" moments. Still, I like the core, the on-the-verge prospects, and I'm thinking this window is not going to slam shut on us.
  18. jkcarew
    The players are bigger and the modern ballparks are smaller...so, I don't see the trend for trying to hit the ball in the air reversing any time soon. I guess, maybe some type of pitch or delivery will prove to be materially successful in mitigating launch in the future and cause a shift? What is smart, does not necessarily make for more interesting baseball, though. Diversity of swings and styles of play are dying. Everyone has the same swing, and fewer and fewer seem capable of adapting it if the game situation simply calls for putting the ball in play. And the strike-out rates, which this evolution contributes to, are already at absurd levels.
  19. jkcarew
    Kirby Puckett called...with his two world championships, his WS MVP, his 6 gold gloves, and his seven seasons with top-7 finishes in MVP voting... He said he wished he had taken more walks.
  20. jkcarew
    Interesting take. Or, it could be that even he doesn't take it that seriously. Just something that he does because he likes it, and because he can. Hard to truly know. To me, it's not specifically the rap thing that makes his situation different or interesting. It's that there is probably in the neighborhood of $100 million sloshing around in the savings accounts of the immediate family. I mean, you gotta LOVE the game of baseball....or, maybe you REALLY want to be better than your brother. For my part...about the 10th time I was made to look like a fool at the plate in some place like Beloit Wisconsin, I'd already be tempted to ask for that interest free loan to start my fly-in fishing lodge in Canada.
  21. jkcarew
    My point would be that Gordon has lot's of "creative endeavors" as options. This one is extremely expensive and not an option for most (if not all) other prospects. Most others would have been playing Pokémon or watching TV, or maybe even approaching 24/7/365 on baseball...because those would have been the options available. There's the rub. All other things being equal, I'll take the hungry guy.
  22. jkcarew
    His words give no solace to me. Only his performance on the field will do that. Driven to be better than dad and brother? Or distracted by all the other lifestyle options the family's wealth offers? It's probably going to be one or the other for Nick.
  23. jkcarew
    This. I'd be interested to hear from those that have seen both, what separates these two by such a seemingly wide margin in prospect rankings. They both had very similar success as 18-year-olds at Elizabethton. Since then, it took Palacios a little more than a year to figure out low A, but he continues to show promise. Is Javier's upside offensively just that much better? Or is it defense? Or mostly just the $4 million?
  24. jkcarew
    Thanks for continuing to share this stuff. "Value of Marginal Wins". These are the correct questions imo...a reasonably accurate view of the number of marginal wins provided by the player, combined with the expected value of each win. This absolutely lends itself to higher AAV and shorter term. Each additional year presents diminished expectation of marginal wins provided (assuming at/past prime player), and at the same time, more risk regarding how each win should be valued. I'm not ready to write Granite off. A starter is not defined in a vacuum. Just because you don't want three Zach Granites in your outfield, doesn't mean you can't have one. Check out Dan Gladden's numbers from '87 to '91, and tell me if you think Granite, with a some adjustments and opportunity, doesn't have a chance to be that player. (Ignoring the post-season heroics...although, I'd take those as well!)
  25. jkcarew
    It makes no sense to me (anymore) to pull for one side or the other. The owners lost the reserve clause years ago, and the players are very well represented. So, I pull for signed agreements that are legal and binding...and hope that the game itself is in a healthy enough spot for the agreement to be sustainable.
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