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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    1. While you can argue the Twins took a risk with Pelfrey, it was still better than signing Baker because at least Pelfrey took the mound. Last time I checked, it's hard to get anything for a guy in trade if he doesn't pitch until September. 2. Pelfrey was an above average pitcher in 2010, just one season before he missed a season due to TJS. You can argue whether Pelfrey is good enough, whether the Twins should have signed him, or a host of other things, but under no circumstances can you argue that Scott Baker was a better signing, particularly in hindsight because he didn't pitch. I'll take the guy who sucks but is playing over the guy who can't play at all. That's just common sense. You can always bench the sucky guy if something better comes along.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    If you want to field the best team possible, Willingham should DH. If you want to keep Josh's trade value higher, Willingham should be LF. Personally, I think Josh should DH, at least when Hughes is on the mound. I don't want that poor guy pitching while Arcia and Willingham bumble around the OF.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I have a hard time believing Delmon was a better defender than Arcia. But yeah, Arcia's pretty bad out there. Brutal at times. Nothing close to "decent" at this point, though he's still young. But in all likelihood, he has DH written all over him.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Chris Parmelee has spent his entire professional career splitting time between OF and 1B. Initially, he only played a few games at first but by 2008, he was splitting time almost evenly between RF/1B.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Baker career: 6.03 innings per start Pelfrey career: 5.89 innings per start
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Methinks you need to take another look at Butera's stat line. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buterdr01.shtml
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    In the past few days, Ryan has turned Ryan Doumit into Sean Gilmartin and Kurt Suzuki, all while saving around $750k (not that any of us should care one bit about the Twins saving a million bucks right now). A pretty good deal all around. Lower payroll, a better defensive catcher, and a marginal LHP prospect added to the farm.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential. It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, picking up Valencia was an okay move. The thing is that without that absurd BABIP and essentially getting lucky, Valencia is a really marginal player. First, he's the wrong side of a platoon. No matter what you do, the guy is going to take many of his ABs against RHP. It's inevitable and you can basically write off any ABs he takes after the sixth inning. There is no reason he should ever face a lefty out of the bullpen. Ever. Second, he's an awful defender at third. Will it work out for the Royals? Sure, Valencia may get lucky and post an absurd BABIP against lefties again. Is it likely that it will work out? No, probably not. I'm still floored that Duquette was able to get anything for a guy with 170 PAs in 2013, much less what looks to be a decent fourth outfielder. Every single stat line in Valencia's 2013 SSS screams regression in a big, bad way. Well, except for his BABIP against RHP. But that's not exactly the stat line you want to see up on the upswing in a platoon player. Also, it should be noted that the Orioles didn't do a particularly good job of protecting Valencia against righties, which puts into the question their "setting him up to succeed". Valencia had 102 PAs against lefties, 68 PAs against righties. Sure, it's hard to protect a RHB platoon against righties but at a glance, it doesn't look like the Orioles even tried that hard to do it. 68 PAs is 40% of his total PAs in 2013. Again, Duquette made a marginal move and got really lucky with it. The smartest thing he did was recognize that luck and flipped that player for something before he regressed.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't realize that a 27 year old who plays decent outfield defense and posted a rookie season OPS+ of 96 was such a drag on a roster. Wait. The Twins could totally use one of those guys right now.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    "Alleged right fielders". What an apt description of the Twins current roster.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh yeah, IE's compatibility mode. Greaaaaaaaat feature, especially when enabled by accident or without user knowledge.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Hah! Hey, maybe Valencia is an outlier. It's definitely possible, I'm merely suggesting that given his makeup, it's not likely that he can sustain a perennial .330 BABIP.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    There are a couple of traits common with players who routinely have above-average BABIPs. Byron Buxton has speed. It's a great ability to have but also one of the first to go in a MLB player's career. Put the ball on the ground to the left side of the infield and there's a good chance he beats it out. The other end of the spectrum are the Joe Mauers and Paul Molitors of the world. Guys who simply do not swing at pitches they cannot hit and when they do swing, almost always make contact. Danny Valencia has neither of those traits.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I think pitch framing absolutely impacts the game. I struggle believing some of the numbers spit out by various metrics. Without a doubt, Ryan Doumit is a liability as a catcher. But if you use him correctly, he can be a valuable player, particularly on an NL team. He's a switch-hitter, which gives him an advantage off the bench. He *should* OPS around .750, which makes him a bad DH but a very good bench bat. And you can put him behind the dish ~30 times a season and he won't kill your team, which means that you can't need to carry a second catcher on the roster, a position often synonymous with "boat anchor at the plate". He shores up several problems on the average NL roster and his only detriment is his catching, which is also a positive because he can catch, even if it's badly.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh, Omar Infante. I don't like many (maybe even most) of Moore's decisions. But I'm not trying to bash Moore... I'm taking more of a swing at the people who think Danny Valencia was some kind of brilliant acquisition by Duquette. The Orioles got lucky with Valencia in 2013. The smartest thing Duquette did was realize that fact and shoo Danny out of town before anyone else noticed.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that we don't even know if he's a quality platoon candidate, as evidenced by his .405 (!) BABIP against lefties, which is surely going to plummet. What happens if that BABIP normalizes? Is he still a good platoon player? In this case, he probably is but he's not going to be nearly as good as he was in 2013. Not to mention that right-handed platoon players are marginalized to begin with, as it's so easy for teams to negate his split advantage after 5-6 innings. Also, LHP starters are far more uncommon than their right-handed equivalents. If Valencia is going to play at all, he's going to get 30-40% of his ABs against RHP. Platoons are great when they work but the left-handed hitter in a platoon is going to be far more valuable than the right-handed hitter in the same platoon.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It depends. Valencia has only had a "normal" BABIP in one season, 2011. It was .275, which is a bit low but given his makeup, that's not unreasonably low. And in 2011, he was below replacement level. Unless Danny Valencia is lucky, Danny Valencia is a very bad baseball player.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    An absurdly low .214. Surely that will go up but that's not the trending split you want to see from a platoon candidate.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    But Lough had a .322 BABIP in 265 PAs against lefties. A little high but not outrageous given his speed and 8-9 IF hits in 2013. Valencia had a .405 BABIP in 102 PAs against lefties. Not the slightest bit sustainable and that SSS makes me reel. It should also be noted that he had a .394 BA and .429 BABIP in Camden Yards and a .286 BA and .262 BABIP away from it.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I won't give Ryan a ton of credit for picking Buxton because he was coveted by most organizations. But let's not pretend that there were no questions surrounding him out of high school. He played in the sticks; there were questions about competition level and whether it was masking some inherent flaws in him as a player. Plus, playing out in the sticks meant that scouting on him was light compared to his relative talent level.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    My issue is that I don't consider Valencia "depth". I consider him to be pretty much useless and 170 PAs with a .340 BABIP isn't going to convince me otherwise. We've been down this road with Valencia before. If his BABIP isn't outside the norm, he's not just bad, he's a boat anchor on the roster.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It makes you wonder how much longer Ryan plans on staying in the GM's chair. I think his role is a pretty reluctant one right now.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    No, Lough isn't a terribly good player himself... But he's younger, is rangy enough to play the occasional CF (and therefore, be a decent fourth OF), and doesn't suffer from ugly splits. In short, he has a better chance of being a useful player.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Casilla was a much better pick-up than Valencia from a risk analysis standpoint. Casilla posted multiple partial seasons with an OPS+ between 90-100. He was a defensive asset at an up-the-middle position. He was only 28 years old. He posted a positive WAR in most seasons of his career. And Casilla failed. Sometimes, decent bets don't pan out while shot-in-the-dark risks like Valencia work out over the short term. That doesn't mean Duquette was right to pick up Valencia and wrong to pick up Casilla. Luck cannot be predicted and sometimes, even the worst moves work out because dumb luck is a big part of this game.
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