Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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True, though I used the quick-and-dirty stat of hits allowed to point out the same thing... Not as precise as your analysis but it reaches the same conclusion. -
A lot of variables going on here. At some point, it becomes a chicken/egg situation. If Correia is holding his own, do you waste potential trade value by dumping him for nothing? If you hold onto him too long, are you sacrificing a competitive team for one guy's trade value? It's going to be hard to give up on Correia entirely if he's hovering around league-average numbers. I hope they do it (or at least aggressively push to trade him ASAP, even at a discounted price), I'm just not sure they will... and with the current roster crunch, I don't see how they keep both Correia and Pelfrey on the roster and replace them with Meyer from Rochester and Deduno from the bullpen. As for Meyer, he's giving up fewer hits and he's striking out more hitters at a higher level. No one stat is enormously better than his AA numbers but when combined, they make him look more dominant.
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Don't get me wrong, I think he's legit. I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't make a move in the next month if he continues this torrid streak of pitching (unless they make a move for Deduno, who pitches well and fills the last rotation spot).
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But the changeup is new. He's dominating at a level he didn't show in AA and his new pitch is getting the credit. Again, I'm not against calling up Meyer soon, I simply believe that showing a bit of prudence and letting him pitch a few more innings in AAA isn't going to kill anybody. Let him show that the changeup is real and that he's truly a dominant pitcher.
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No. IIRC, Ryan pointed out that he wasn't going after batters before the call-up, which was also Gibson's problem in the Majors. By June/July of last season, the front office no longer had much of a choice. The rotation was so bad that somebody had to step up... I'm sure they were hoping Gibson was that guy, despite statements about consistency before the call-up. Obviously, that didn't work out for them but based on comments, I think they were aware that might be an issue.
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They get to watch the guy's film every start. We don't. It's really that simple.
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Which is why I've questioned multiple times whether he's injured. His velocity is down, he's giving up an inordinate number of gopher balls, he's relying less on offspeed pitches (already a weak point of his pitching style), and he's walking too many batters. If he's even *a little bit* injured, he needs to be out of the rotation immediately.
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I don't think that has much of a bearing on anything other than "protect the younger guys who may not have the confidence to go against the tougher pitchers the first two times through the rotation". Rotation order has so little bearing on anything that I wonder why people even bring it up.
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He hasn't even come close to proving he is ready. He's had two dominant starts in a row. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Kyle Gibson was pretty dominant for over 100 innings of AAA ball last season and was absolutely awful when he got the call.
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Absolutely. Personally, I think the right move is to dig down and find out why Pelfrey is throwing more fastballs more slowly than any other point in his career. If he's even slightly injured, you replace him with Deduno immediately. Then, if Correia is still struggling in mid-to-late May, then you consider calling up Meyer if he's still dominating.
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Two weeks is generally three more starts but the numbers don't really matter. You move him when you're confident that he has turned the corner, which isn't always evident from a box score. He was actually quite good in the second half of last season. I'm all in favor of yanking Pelfrey out of the rotation because, as I pointed out in another thread, his velocity is down and he's not a good pitcher when he can't throw 93-94 mph. But given the weather this April, I think the prudent decision is to give him another couple of starts to see if he turns around (unless he's injured, at which point you yank him out of the rotation yesterday and replace him with Deduno).
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Meyer doesn't need to keep throwing shutouts. If he continues to miss bats and walks fewer batters, then he forces a decision. My point is that two starts usually don't provide enough information to make an informed decision. Give him some more time and if he's still completely dominating lineups two weeks from now, then you know he's really on to something and isn't succeeding through a healthy dose of dumb luck and bad lineups. Sure, and I agree with that premise... But you have to give those guys more than five starts in miserable April weather to make that decision. If they reach the 7-8 start mark and are still awful, then they've had their chance. You yank them out of the rotation and move on.
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Nope. Nice try, though.
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It could easily be argued that it sends a worse message to your team to pull the rug out from under established veterans after one bad month. I'm all for calling up Meyer soon and getting him MLB innings but before you do that, you need to make sure of two things: 1. That he's actually going to better than the guy he's replacing 2. That you're removing the correct veteran from the roster Right now, the Twins don't have answers to either of those things. Do you remove Pelfrey or Correia? Are these two starts by Meyer an aberration or is he legitimately dominant, enough so to make an impact on the MLB level? Give it another 2+ weeks, see how things shake out, then make the appropriate moves, if a move needs to be made at all. Calling up Meyer after last night's start is the very definition of a knee jerk reaction.
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I think roster space has a lot to do with it for position players but I'm not so sure about pitchers... I think the (maddening at times) bullpen stints for Liriano and Santana had as much to do with controlling innings as rotation space, particularly in the case of Liriano, who was only 22 in 2006. The Santana situation in 2003 was infuriating, though. He was only 23 at the time but he was so obviously better than some of the junk they were rolling out in the rotation.
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If you're throwing twice as many strikes as balls, you're doing pretty well for yourself.
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If anyone in the Twins front office makes a decision based solely on Super 2 status, they deserve a kick in the crotch on behalf of a tired, downtrodden fanbase.
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He's *most likely* better than Pelfrey right now but the Twins have Meyer for 6-7 years. At this point, they have to do what's best for him as a player. We all saw what happened to Carlos Gomez because the Mets were impatient. I'm not saying Alex Meyer is Carlos Gomez, just pointing out that prospects can be negatively impacted by overeager front offices. Hey, I'll be right next to you, hollering about Meyer if he's not up in late June and is dominating AAA but the thinking that leads to giving a guy a call-up after two dominant starts is how teams get burned by rushing prospects. Maybe it was cold. Maybe the opposing lineups had off-days. Maybe the ump was overly generous. Maybe Meyer just flat-out got lucky. A lot can happen to influence two starts positively (or negatively) and when you're dealing with a guy who you control through the entirety of his prime seasons, it's not a bad idea to stand pat for a few starts and see how things shake out.
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I don't think this is fair. The Twins have certainly jerked around players in the past but if the player looks to be an unstoppable talent, he hits the Majors pretty quickly. Joe Mauer was up in his age 21 season. Liriano was up in his age 21 season. Arcia was up in his age 22 season. Hicks was named the starting CF in his age 23 season. Sano would have made the Majors in his age 21 season if not for the injury. Buxton has a shot at making it to the Majors in his age 20 season and almost certainly will be in Minnesota for his age 21 season. As excited as I am to see Meyer, he has five AAA starts and he's still walking a few too many batters. There's absolutely nothing wrong with giving him a few more starts to see how the new changeup shakes out over more than two dominant starts.
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I might be wrong but I don't believe there's a single instance of Boras doing this with a high profile client.
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Article: That's The Ticket: Dodging Storms
Brock Beauchamp replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oy. The weather is going to be bad for this series. I'm just hoping they find a way to get at least two of the games in the books before the Dodgers leave. -
Pelfrey to the bullpen?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Richie the Rally Goat's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If Pelfrey is throwing hard, he's a good option as a reliever. He can probably wick it up into the 93-94 mph range and rely heavily on his fastball for an inning or two. Never face the same batter twice and then hit the showers. But if he's sitting at 91 mph, ugh. Not so much. -
Article: My Twins Mt. Rushmore
Brock Beauchamp replied to tshide's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Mauer is signed through his age 36 season and has a no-trade clause. I think it's a given that he's going to spend the vast majority of his career playing for the Twins. Besides, Oliva only really spent 13 seasons with the Twins. Mauer is already in his 11th season with the team. -
Pelfrey to the bullpen?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Richie the Rally Goat's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yep, which is why I think Deduno gets first shot at the next rotation opening. It's too tempting to just flip roles with whomever he replaces in the rotation. Still, I'd give Pelfrey and Kevin two more starts apiece. See if warmer weather will help right the ship at all. If not, send one to the bullpen and be done with it. The Twins are riding high right now and can't afford to put themselves in the position of repeating 2013's May because the pitching staff continues to be terrible. -
Pelfrey to the bullpen?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Richie the Rally Goat's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'd give him two more starts and then decide whether he should be in the bullpen or added to the DL. Either way, neither he nor Correia should have much of a leash, not with the Twins sitting at 12-11 and the rotation being in shambles.
