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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Like Denard Span and Ben Revere? I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    He was the first overall pick in the draft. It's unlikely that he sits in the minors until he's 23-24 unless something goes terribly wrong. Coming out of college, he'd be in his age 21 season before he played an inning of pro ball. He'd only get a partial season in his draft year and suddenly he's looking at his age 23 season with only 1 1/3 MiLB seasons under his belt. It's likely that he'd push back his overall service time at least one season, maybe two, by going back to college. Given that the average MLB free agent makes around $6-7m a season, one year of FA is worth a lot more than the $3m in question today.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a lot easier to deal with a player's bad attitude if he's good at baseball. AJ Pierzynski is no longer good at baseball.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    If he isn't interested in a one-year deal, I'd probably balk at signing him at all. I *might* go two years if the price is right. The thing is that neither Pinto nor Vargas are can't-miss prospects. They both have issues going forward and their chance of failure is pretty high. If Morales was "blocking" Byron Buxton, I'd feel very differently about it.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    In Pinto's case, his problem isn't hitting MLB pitching (at least that's not his major problem). It's working with pitchers and being a catcher. He's best served by doing that in the minors, I believe. From pretty much every account by everyone involved, he has a lot of work to do before he's a MLB catcher defensively. And Vargas? He's not going to be ready in April of 2015 anyway. If the Twins are in contention with Morales next season, great. Slide Vargas into a swing role in July and let him take his hacks with the understanding he's your guy in 2016. If the Twins are out of contention, Morales should be traded in July anyway. You can give Vargas all the DH plate appearances at that point. I just don't see how Suzuki or Morales are blocking anyone until this time next season. Neither Pinto nor Vargas will be ready for a full-time role in Minnesota for quite some time. And none of this brings up the various injury issues teams have throughout a season, allowing guys to get a taste of the MLB before you expect to see them.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd say it matters more than anything depending on how you define "depth". A couple of 5-6 WAR players won't get you to the playoffs. A team of 2-3 WAR players? They'll give you a damned good shot at the postseason. You may not advance but you'll be competitive. Good teams are built on the backs of the good-but-not-spectacular players. You know, players kinda like Kendrys Morales.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd love to read that article. Plouffe has dropped under the radar in many ways. At an initial glance, he looks like the same ol' Trevor Plouffe... but then you look at his defense, LD rate, and discipline and see that he's a much better player this season.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I went out on a limb and voted Arcia. Here's hoping the kid turns it around in the second half.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that it sets back his development 1-2 years. Out of high school, he might be a FA at age 28-29. Out of college, it's more like 30-31. 1-2 years of free agency are worth a lot more than $3m. Still, what an awful situation to be put in. Houston, just give the kid his money.
  10. Brock Beauchamp

    A much longer update. A much longer update. A much longer update. A much longer update. A much longer update.

  11. Brock Beauchamp

    It's-a me, Mario!

  12. Brock Beauchamp

    I'm a updating!

  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's likely that this is exactly what happens.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    There's no reason they can't do both. Just like this season, non-contending teams can trade the Kevin Correias and Josh Willinghams of the world to clear space for the Meyers and Mays. You keep the window open to contend, hand the team to the young guys in July if it doesn't happen. Outside of Josmil Pinto, who would Suzuki or Morales block on Opening Day 2015? Vargas won't be ready and if Pinto is going to catch, he needs to do it in Rochester for awhile. It's pretty obvious that he has a long way to go before he's a MLB catcher. The overwhelming likelihood is that it won't happen between today and April 1, 2015.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure they'll be competitive at all, I simply believe they should keep the window open to be competitive. 1. They won't get help that adequately replaces Dozier's bat. He's a pretty good player. 3+ WAR players don't grow on trees. 2. Help from the minor leagues will perform at a lower level than Brian Dozier. I don't predict many things with utmost certainty but you can pretty lock that in as fact. Brian Dozier is better than 25 other MLB 2B, much less some MiLB players with question marks. 3. What's the point of trading Brian Dozier if you're just going to trade or sign someone to replace him? And if the production was equal to Dozier, why wouldn't the other team skip trading for Dozier and just sign that theoretical 2B with Dozier-level production? 4. They have a decent shot at contending in 2015 if a few things break right. Hell, they looked like a fringe contender at times this year and it's unlikely the Twins get worse in 2015 without some unfortunate injury luck. Teams rarely go from 72 wins to 90 wins and contention in a season. It's a process. This year, the goal is 75-ish wins. Next year, it should be around 80. If a few things break right, boom, you're a contender at 85 wins.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Why not both? Why not pursue a make-good contract with Vargas in hopes of being a fringe contender in 2015? If it doesn't work, trade him in July and call up Vargas. It's not as if Vargas is going to be ready on Opening Day of 2015 anyway. He could use some time at Rochester. The Twins have money. Why not give yourself a chance to win in both 2015 and 2016-beyond?
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Overall good post. I'm only going to tackle this one comment. I feel like I've repeated this a thousand times but if you see downside in a player, so do 29 other GMs in the league. The fact is that if Dozier continues to hit in 2015, his value will be higher than it is today. He'll still have three years of control and a track record of 2 1/2 seasons of quality play. That will put to rest any unease with potential collapse. He'll still only be 28 and he'll have the rest of his prime seasons under control. And in a year, Polanco, Rosario, and (fill in blank second baseman) will be closer to MLB. If the Twins trade Dozier now, they're punting on not only 2014 but 2015 as well. Do any of us want to see that happen? Frankly, I'm tired of losing and I certainly don't want the Twins to act like they're the Kansas City Royals of the 2000s, constantly trading players to build for a future that never comes.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm looking for someone who has a copy of IE11, some free time, and a mind for technical issues. No coding required, just some patience and the ability to describe potential issues with site functionality and display. PM me if you're such a person.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Barring injury or extreme production drop-off, Dozier's value will still be very high in two years and at that point, this theoretical replacement will be closer to the big leagues and more of a viable option to actually replace Dozier and be productive. Teams can't trade off solid, productive players due to irrational fear of collapse... if they operated in that fashion, they'd trade every. single. player. on their roster the moment they got good at hitting or throwing baseballs. Teams can't win if they continually trade off their good players without viable replacements on hand. It's that simple.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Escobar could fill that role once Santana comes back from rehab.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it's hopeful at all. Sano's surgery shouldn't effect his arm enough to worry, particularly because now he's probably not going to see a MLB roster until this time next year. And from reports I've read of his recent defense, he's better than Joe the moment he gets the call to Minnesota. Even if he's defensively rough at third, he'd still be the second best option at the position behind Plouffe.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that Morales isn't old and was very productive as recent as last season. He's an extremely likely bounce-back candidate, as his troubles this season almost surely stem from missing spring training and close to half of 2014. This isn't a retread or a Rondell White situation. It's a smart buy-in on a player whose value has plummeted because he's rusty.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    As unlikely as it seemed even three months ago, I think the answer to that has to be "yes". Over the past 365 days, Dozier has 28 home runs. He's been a masher for roughly 13-14 months now. I think it's safe to say that this is who Brian Dozier is now. He's a low average, high discipline masher at a premium position. Unless the offer is "holy crap, yeah, I'll take the #4 prospect in baseball" good, there is no reason to trade Brian Dozier, particularly for a guy owed a bunch of money over the next handful of years (Allen Craig). I don't understand why people are in a rush to get rid of Brian Dozier. He's a 2.5-4 WAR player right now. That's a really valuable piece and the return better be amazing if he's moved and it needs to be a lot better than Craig, a defensively-challenged OF/1B type who is owed $25m in the next three years. Trading Dozier seems a lot like shuffling deck chairs. You're closing one hole so you can open another. It doesn't actually improve the team in any capacity.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    After watching Joe man first base this season, I don't see how he can play third base. It'd be Plouffe all over again. By the time Joe is even just a "bad" defender at third (as opposed to "awful"), Sano will be ready to take his place. No thanks. Trevor is just fine at the hot corner.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Normally I'd agree but coming off a season where two Boras clients were snakebit by unreasonable expectations, this might be a good offseason to get Morales on the cheap. After what happened early this season, I have to believe that both Morales and Drew just want to play baseball and have no interest in repeating last offseason's shenanigans. They're old enough where they can't afford to risk sitting out another season and throwing away their last shots to get back on track and sign a 2-3 year deal into their mid-30s. It wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them take a one year offer early in the offseason just to make sure they're not left out in the cold again. And given how both Morales and Drew have played in 2014, do you see a team giving one of them more than $8m in 2015? I don't.
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