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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Out of the Twins' starting pitchers and potential starting pitchers for April of 2015, Gibson is the only guy who is a dedicated ground ball pitcher. Overall the Twins' defense may not be the worst in the league but if you factor in their pitching staff, they're one of the worst defenses where it counts. The impact of infield defense is minimized if the ball is constantly going over the infielders' heads.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, we certainly agree that the third option is a bad one. I'm okay with the first two, though I lean toward letting the kids play.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed fully. In past years, I understood their reluctance to go all-in on the rebuild... The pieces simply weren't there to do it. Now we're in a situation where May is in Minnesota, Meyer should be in Minnesota already, and Berrios looks like he's on a fast track for 2015. Buxton, Sano, Rosario, et al aren't terribly far away either. Now is the time to let the kids play because - finally - there are kids actually worth playing.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    A pretty good pick-up by the Nationals, in my opinion. I really dislike Florimon as a starter but given his speed and defense, he makes a ton of sense in a bench role on a contending team.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't understand how anyone wouldn't be intrigued to see Pelfrey throw out of the pen. He's not dissimilar to LaTroy Hawkins. Big, flat fastball that he throws non-stop. He's pretty much a no-brainer for the pen, in my opinion.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    It's more than Pelfrey, though... What about Milone? Johnson? There will be competition for rotation spots no matter what happens. Unless the Twins are going after a massive upgrade in the rotation - and they almost surely aren't in the market for a Shields-type pitcher - I don't see a lot of gain for the money spent. The future of this team lies with Meyer and Berrios. The faster the front office gets them to Minnesota, the better. It's not only about Meyer. Berrios, barring catastrophe, is going to start 2015 in Rochester. The Twins made that pretty apparent with his late-season promotion to AAA. Let the kids play, I say. If I have to hold my nose in April and May while Pelrey/Milone stink up the joint because it means that Meyer and Berrios get 15+ starts in Minnesota next season, I can certainly live with that.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    That should read "dangle Vargas or Arcia". There is definitely room for one of them. Both? I'm not so sure.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that I outlined why it will be hard to pick up a starting pitcher without punting on Meyer for another half season. Either this team is rebuilding or it's not. If you don't let guys like Meyer and May throw MLB innings, they'll never be MLB pitchers. Again: Nobody seems to be answering this pretty obvious question.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't understand the notion that it has to be one or the other. It's entirely possible - scratch that, it's likely - that both bad pitching and bad defense have contributed to the overall line of the pitching staff. The problem is that with the pitching staff, the rotation is virtually locked in for 2015 already unless you're willing to punt on giving the Twins' best pitching prospect a shot at MLB, something most would argue he earned back in June of this year. Gibson has tailed off this season. His trade value is meh. Hughes is too good to trade. Nolasco has zero value right now. May needs innings. Meyer needs innings. Who gets bumped? Meanwhile, the Twins have no legitimate left fielder. It seems to me the easiest choice is to explore that arena and see if you can find someone to patch that hole in 2015 and not embarrass himself in the field, knowing that Hicks or Buxton will take center field in the near future.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Hah, fair enough. I still think he's a decent bullpen arm if he can get back to the 92-93mph range.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think one of the most interesting ideas this offseason is shopping Vargas or Arcia. Dangle them and see what offers you get in return. Given the offensive upside of each and the fact that they don't really fit well with the coming tide of MiLB players, Ryan might be able to get a piece that works a lot better in the long-term.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I definitely understand your point. My personal opinion is that if Nolasco is just average, 2015's rotation probably isn't too bad. Of course, guys always get injured but that's why it's nice to have a guy like Pelfrey around... I'm not keen on starting the season with future building blocks in the minors, though. Another reason why it would have been nice to see Meyer in Minnesota on August 1st. We'd have more information as to what is needed in 2015.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    But given the reality of the situation, Meyer is the guy you're bouncing out of the rotation by signing another starter. At some point, the Twins need to just pack it in and let the kids play, in my opinion. If the starters fail - and they might - then go find a starter next offseason. In the meantime, shoring up the outfield defense - or maybe just sacrificing offense and letting Hicks/Schafer play - is a pretty easy fix and you get to find out what you really have in Hicks. I'm tired of seeing the Twins kick the can down the road and stalling out prospects. At some point, they need to just throw prospects out there and make them play. And given how the MiLB system is stacked right now, those choices are only going to get harder in the coming years. If there's prospect chaff in the upper minors right now, find out and move on before you have to figure out what to do with Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, etc.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, it depends. If you walk 6 guys in a game, there's a good chance you don't make it out of the fourth inning. So, do you take the additional 1-2 runs 1BB/6H allows over 6-7 innings or do you take the 6BB/1H line that probably has the guy struggling to go 5 innings? And that's really the problem. If you have a guy consistently walking 3+ a game, that pitcher is going to struggle to go more than five innings an outing. That's an extra 30-35 innings on your bullpen, which affects how the bullpen pitches in the rest of their outings due to fatigue. In all likelihood, that 6BB/1H pitcher is a net loss compared to the 1BB/6H pitcher over the course of a season.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think Pelfrey has a place in this rotation barring injury, period. Maybe the bullpen. But Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer give you a shot at competing. They don't have the highest upside in MLB but they should be able to hold their own. May and Meyer need to pitch. Hughes is good. Gibson has earned another year. Nolasco is paid too much to be waived and even he has been pretty good in the past 28 days: 32.0 IP, 5 BB, 23 K, 34 H, 3.09 ERA So how do you make those guys a little better? Easy, you put a competent defense behind them, particularly in the OF because most of those guys are flyball pitchers.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    True, May does have a much higher chance of success in the pen. Gibson is a starter, boom or bust... But May can wick it up fast enough and drop his weakest pitch and turn into a solid eighth inning guy, maybe a closer.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that defensive metrics aren't perfect but we have a situation where the Twins have multiple players in the OF that are below replacement level, both statistically and visually. The pitching staff continues to underperform expected production levels based on defensive deficiencies, despite seeing massive player turnover from season to season. Is that worth 50 runs? Maybe. Is it worth 80 runs? IMO, almost surely not. Is it worth 30 runs? Probably. My point is that no matter how you look at the situation, the easiest path to "fixing" the pitching staff is to fix the defense. You can't "fix" Mauer - the rest of the infield looks decent - but you can fix the outfield, which has been absolutely terrible.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    If Dozier only brings back Kemp or Ethier, I'll start cheering for the Brewers. I wouldn't trade Dozier for both Kemp and Ethier.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I remember Span being held back quite a bit... by a concussion.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    One run every third game (which 50 runs isn't quite that number but close enough) isn't unreasonable. Looking at Arcia, Parmelee, Willingham, et al and you see at least one missed opportunity a game, it seems. If you miss a tough catch in the outfield, there's a very good chance that it's going for extra bases. Tack on an extra double every 13.5 innings and there's your one run every three games.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree. I think May has a ceiling not terribly different from Gibson, though he gets there very differently. A ceiling of a fringe #2 with a likely outcome of a fringe #3 or good #4.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a conservative estimate. Every metric you can find out there says this defense is terrible, including the eye test. Though obviously Hicks and Schafer change that dynamic quite a bit.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It turned out to be a pretty significant issue. The database software corrupted itself and fell over. Go home, MySql. You're drunk.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Booo. I work at Polaris. Buy an Indian or a Victory.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Very true about outfield defense. It's probably a coincidence that Nolasco has returned to being an adequate pitcher once Hicks, Schafer, and Santana all joined the roster but those guys certainly aren't hurting his performances. I don't hate this pitching staff. I think the smartest money the Twins could spend is on an outfielder who won't embarrass himself in either the field or at the plate. Or maybe you trade one of Arcia or Vargas for a more flexible player with less plate potential. There are options, the question is what route Ryan will take this offseason.
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