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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that has a lot to do with the concept of a replacement player. Offensively, the gap between a replacement player and a competent player is huge and might be as much as 100 OPS points. Defensively, the gap is much smaller between replacement level and competency, as many "replacement players" are already competent defensively. That's why they're on the roster in the first place. Nobody keeps around a guy who is replacement level offensively and worse than replacement level defensively. That's a useless player, often referred to as "Jason Bartlett" in some circles.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Baseball's rule changes completely altered the playoff landscape. In the 2000s, every playoff team had a legit chance of winning it all. The WC often faced the second-best team in the league, they didn't even have to face the best competition if it came from the same division. They had five games to advance and with a lone wildcard, that team could often align their rotation to compete to the best of their ability. I don't dislike the rule changes but they've drastically changed the ability of the WC to compete. The WC team has to burn one of their best pitchers in a single game playoff. If they win, then they have to hit the road and face the best team in the league at a distinct disadvantage. Seeing a WC team play in the World Series was pretty commonplace in the 2000s. I don't think we'll see it happen nearly as often with the new playoff schedule.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't believe Meyer, Sano, and Buxton will be the only good Twins players, I just think the team will struggle until a few of the blue-chippers emerge. There are several good role players on the Twins and in the high minors - May, Arcia, Tonkin, Vargas, Santana, etc... But they're more Michael Cuddyer than Miguel Cabrera. Guys you need to succeed long-term (2-4 WAR players, maybe) but not MVP-level talent.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    No arguments that I think the Twins should have started playing the youngsters earlier, I just think the idea that they'd be markedly better is a bit overblown around here. The Twins won't be good until Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Berrios, et al are playing. Up until around June of this year, they simply didn't have the horses in the farm system to compete... Which, unsurprisingly, is when I started becoming more critical of the front office as May and Meyer stayed in the minors instead of logging MLB time. But in 2012 and 2013, the Twins simply didn't have good options anywhere. Arcia got time when he was ready, Gibson was a bit slow but they did the right thing and promoted him in 2013 and gave him innings so it's mostly a moot point. Past that, the Twins basically had three options to play: - Bad veterans - Raw minor leaguers without much talent - Awful AAAA players No matter what you do in that situation, you're going to field a bad team that isn't going to meaningfully improve because the players have a ceiling of mediocrity. Sure, I wanted to see Parmelee play more in 2013 but ultimately, it doesn't really matter because Chris Parmelee is not a very good baseball player.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I wouldn't predict that the Twins leapfrog the Astros, simply pointing out there's a decent chance it happens if Sano, Buxton, Meyer, and Berrios hit the MLB squad in 2015. A lock? No. A moderate chance of happening? Sure. The Twins might graduate four top 50 prospects in 2015. That's incredible to think about.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, both teams finished with the same record. While I agree that the Astros are "in a better place" because they played a metric ton of young players this season, they also had a full season headstart on the Twins (not to mention three additional years of top 15 picks before that point... going into 2011, the Twins farm system was atrocious). Given that both teams finished 70-92 while the Twins farm was absolutely decimated by injury to top prospects, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Twins leap-frog the Astros in the next 24 months despite doing it with less draft picks and in a one year shorter timeframe. And if that happens, then it's pretty apparent the Twins had the more effective rebuild.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    While I differ in opinion about the concept of "rebuild", this isn't a fair statement. The Astros were in full-blown "we suck, we're starting over" mode when the Twins were still in the playoffs. I'd hope they are ahead of the Twins because they've been awful for a long time. The last time the Astros won more than 76 games was 2008 and they blew up the franchise in 2010 while the Twins were were facing the Yankees in the postseason after a 94 win season. Not to mention that the Astros finished this season with a 70-92 record. The very same record sported by our Minnesota Twins.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Statistical variation. Put that team on the field for ten identical seasons and they average 74-ish wins a season. The point is that the team was marginally better than their record. They didn't drastically over- or under-perform. They were a bad team, which is an improvement over the 2013 squad, which was flat-out awful.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    My first choices as well. At first, I was deep into the pro-Molitor camp but after considering it a bit more, I've started to warm up on Mientkiewicz. He's young, can definitely relate to the young core of players, and was in the same situation as a player in 2000 when the Twins emerged from obscurity. Either is fine with me and I don't envy Ryan having to make this decision.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It bothers the hell out of me that the Astros get to pick at two and five this year. Yeah, I know it's the rules but after the crap they pulled this summer, they deserve to lose that second overall pick.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I was going to start a similar thread. Baseball is a funny sport. Despite seeing a very similar record, this team improved significantly over the 2013 squad. Most predictors I saw before the season (myself included) put them somewhere in the 71-73 win range. Well, they technically missed that mark... but if you look at their pythag, they were actually a little better than 73 wins, the high mark for many of us. Still a long way to go but it's nice to finally see improvement of any kind, particularly with so much of that improvement coming from players under the age of 25.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I was sitting in Angel Stadium that night, watching the Angels face the Red Sox in the playoffs. I was wearing a Twins hat and people kept shouting updates to me. Surrounded by BoSox fans (including my friends sitting with me), we were all united against the Yankees. And then Nathan came out for a third inning. Despite the fact that the Red Sox were beating the Angels, the entire section deflated a bit because Sox fans were so desperate to see the Yankees lose (and subsequently not face them in the ALCS) that the entire section briefly became Twins fans. I was livid at Gardenhire that night.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    You're tilting at windmills. I didn't come into this thread swinging or anything close to it. I stated an opinion why I don't want to see the Twins emulate the Royals. That opinion happens to be different from your opinion. Yet you continue to hammer away at it. Why? This is not an argument you can win, as we fundamentally disagree on the details and being that terms like "success" are subjective, we're not going to change the other's mind.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Honestly, I'm pretty open on the next manager... There are several good options out there, I just hope they choose someone who doesn't make my stomach turn (eg. Ozzie Guillen).
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Dude, just let it go. Seriously. We differ on opinion. That's okay.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... Dozier's K rate dropped 1.2% and his BB rate went up 4.4%.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I nearly fainted upon this realization.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. People have different goals and different measures of success. I lean more in the direction of "compete, then push for multiple division titles". I'm skeptical that the Royals are capable of doing that long-term.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Again, I don't want to get into this argument for the umpteenth time but you're essentially arguing that James Shields is +12 wins over Wil Myers.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I disagree but that's another argument in itself. With the new wildcard rules, I don't consider playing 163 games a great success.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Boo.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Now we just need to get Correia back in this rotation and we're ready to rock.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Blergh. I want to like Olbermann but then he says stupid crap like this. Number of managers in the history of baseball that lost 90 games four consecutive years who were not employed by the Twins or did not own the team but managed to keep their job the following season: 0
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the team had a lot of good years with Gardy. I had as many issues with Gardy as anybody but this is still kinda sad, even though it needed to happen.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, and I hope he finds success in another organization. I often disagreed with Gardy's on-field practices but overall, I kinda liked him. It was time for both parties to go their separate ways and I hope there is little/no animosity there. This had to happen.
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