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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    RAWRGHBLARGH ONE SPACE BTW, the two space thing isn't me being stubborn. It's the RTE refusing to cooperate with a line of code. It'll be fixed when we launch the new site, whenever that happens.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree the Twins' bench choices have been a source of aggravation over the years, that was (mostly) on Gardy. I'm cautiously optimistic Molitor may take a different tack once he stretches his wings a bit and becomes more comfortable as a manager.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, sure. We agree on that, obviously... But I cringe every time I see someone post Nolasco's Minnesota FIP as proof of anything (I believe someone else in the thread used the number, not you). He was a terrible pitcher in 2014. Terrible. It wasn't luck-related. He was just bad.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not saying metrics should necessarily change, only pointing out there are outliers (usually in the direction of "terrible") where the metrics shouldn't be used (or at least taken with a grain of salt). For the vast majority of players, they're useful. For a few really crappy players, they normalize things and make those terrible players look better.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Very true but one of my biggest problems with commonly-used advanced metrics is that they fail to acknowledge some things aren't luck-based. It's hard to normalize a pitcher who gives up frozen ropes all over the field. See Nolasco, Ricky. His 2014 wasn't unlucky; he was an awful pitcher. Hitters didn't squeak through a hit or two, they were squaring up on him and drilling the ball. But your point about BABIP is correct, my point is more about SLG and that normalizing some performances make them less accurate, not more. Ricky deserved every bit of that 5.30 ERA in 2014.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Milone is far from an awful pitcher. He has roughly three seasons of average ERA. No, he's not a sexy strikeout guy but he gets the job done. He's a useful piece as a fifth starter, I merely wish the Twins had better 1-4 guys.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Arcia has an MLB OPS+ of 104. He has shown he can hit MLB pitching. People are too down on him for his terrible 2015 season and forgetting the solid hitter he was before last season. And Buxton profiles as a wildly different hitter. He's right-handed (and therefore less prone to ugly L/R splits), is lightning-quick, and has better plate discipline. The two players don't share much in common and that's not even bringing up their defensive differences. Even if Buxton stumbles at the plate, much of his value comes from baserunning and defense. Arcia has to hit (and hit a lot) to have value.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    People like Sansa? I've been actively cheering for her to meet a gruesome end for roughly 4,000 pages. I can't imagine anyone actually liking the character. Arya, on the other hand, she's a favorite of almost everyone I know.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh, yes. 30% of ALL balls in play end up with a runner on base. There are literally millions of data points to prove it.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The manager doesn't get final say over who makes the roster but he does have final say over which players play and how often. And it's highly unlikely Duffey doesn't make the roster, which gives Molitor final say over where/when he pitches. Everybody wants to win and I can't see a situation where Ryan asks Paul to play an inferior player so he can build trade deadline value.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    My thoughts as well. Nolasco needs to be lights-out and/or Duffey needs to implode. I think Ricky needs to drastically out-pitch Milone as well. He's on the outside looking in no matter how you frame the conversation.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I think both Ryan and Molitor are more interested in winning ballgames than showcasing a player for trade.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It was a very stupid move. The player has absolutely nothing to gain with this statement while it has the downside of creating ill-will between everyone involved, including the fans. Few fans in Minnesota like Nolasco. He has no leverage in this situation. If he wants to voice an opinion, he needs to do it in private because no one is going to support him publicly. No one.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Less than 48 months after the fact, it's hard to envision this draft going better for the Twins. You have two elite prospects in Buxton and Berrios, an intriguing starter in Duffey, and a handful of wildcards in Walker, Chargois, Melotakis, etc. So much talent in that list. So much.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    It's my opinion Nolasco isn't competing against any of those guys anyway. Are the Twins really going to put Alex Meyer in a mop-up role? Burdi? Those guys will slot into the sixth or seventh inning roles. Their talent demands it. Whereas it makes all the sense in the world to slot either Nolasco or Milone into a mop-up role. It keeps them somewhat stretched out to spot start or take the fifth rotation spot the moment a guy falters or gets injured.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I believe Arcia makes the roster unless something truly bizarre happens. The same goes for Santana. I suspect the Twins are positioning him to be a super-utility guy, which is why they're playing him all over the diamond. In fact, I think the Twins bench is almost a given: Arcia Santana Murphy Nunez The only question in my mind is who gets the fifth spot (which is likely to be the starting CF position). Is it Buxton? Santana? Sweeney? And Buxton almost surely has the job by June 1st anyway.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep and yep. You just listed why I don't like Nolasco. But it's easy to misread these kinds of things. Maybe Nolasco is just a bit dense and doesn't realize the impact of what he's saying in the moment. Maybe he's a fierce competitor who doesn't take criticism well and reacts emotionally. Those don't necessarily make him a clubhouse problem, they just mean he's kind of a petty jerk. It doesn't automatically mean he acts the same way around his teammates. It's easy to conflate the fan perspective with the clubhouse perspective. Sports history is littered with public jerks who endeared themselves to their teammates because a man's public face does not necessarily reflect his private face.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's definitely something to keep an eye on, I'll agree with that. Nolasco has always rubbed me the wrong way and this event certainly doesn't change my opinion of him. But it's hard to get a read on the guy from the outside. Maybe he's affable and genuinely nice in person. Maybe he's a prick and his teammates hate him. I'm only wary of reading too much into this single event. Ultimately, the people who know him better need to make this call.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, Nolasco doesn't need a new ballpark. And everybody knows you only roll out the cancer-stricken kid when a ballpark is on the line. They're the LOOGY of public relations.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's a possibility but I think people are overreacting to the text message. Yeah, it looks bad - and it reinforces my general dislike of Nolasco - but as far as "clubhouse problems" go, it barely moves the needle. Maybe Nolasco apologizes tomorrow and accepts a bullpen role. Maybe he was frustrated in the moment, said something stupid to his agent, and this "problem" vanishes within the week. Or maybe he's a jerk and becomes a legitimate problem. Time will tell. It's the type of decision that needs to be made internally, not based on a single text message that didn't originate from the player himself.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, they're kinda mandatory, actually. A pitcher has very little control over the ~30% of batted balls that result in a runner standing safely on base. Less batted balls in play, less runners on base. There's a very high correlation between missed bats, strikeouts, and pitcher success.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    At that point, Nolasco is down to being a $3.5m per year mop-up man with the potential to be a capable spot starter (or even a fifth starter). And you keep that guy because "why not"? There's some upside in him and he's not costing you anything other than the roster spot where teams usually stash their worst pitcher.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    You're assuming a GM would even make that deal. I don't know if I would... I'd consider it but I wouldn't necessarily pull the trigger. It requires a team with a rotation in shambles, hopes of contention, and a barren farm for the deal to work under any circumstances (and those three things are unlikely to happen). As I said earlier, I don't know if Nolasco can be moved before next offseason. Even this July is a stretch unless he's pitching out of his mind and at that point, he may be worth keeping the entire season.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Nolasco is owed roughly $25m right now. If you're an opposing GM, what do you require to pick up that contract? If it was my call, I'd want no less than $12m and then I might throw in a PTBNL. Nolasco is an albatross. We need to live with it, at least for now.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Duffey should be the guy unless he pitches his way out of the rotation to start the season. Given Nolasco's performance and health concerns, he should be the long relief guy, ready to jump into a spot start here and there as needed. Unless Nolasco is lights-out and pitches his way into the rotation. That changes things. It's March 10th. I can't get too hot and bothered about any of this until the season approaches. Too many variables, too few answers.
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