Brock Beauchamp

Disclaimer: I don't like May in the bullpen and would prefer to see him in the rotation. With that said, too many people are treating a half season of fWAR as gospel in this thread. Was May the Twins' best starter last season? Possibly. Does fWAR tell us he was the best? Eh, of that I'm not so sure. fWAR for pitchers has some oddities that bother me. After all, it's convinced Nolasco was above replacement level in both 2014 and 2015.

I'll go out on a limb with the over. I think their pitching delivers and they scrap their way into the 83 win range with the help of faltering Yankees and Orioles squads. Of course, 83 wins only gets them third in that division.

Because it's not even March 20th yet and he was injured for pretty much all of 2015? I dislike Nolasco as much as the next guy but half this forum has gone completely off the rails with their opinions on him. There is so little to be lost in roster flexibility by putting Nolasco in the long relief role and he provides modest spot starter upside.

Yes, because "head in the sand" is synonymous with "I refuse to wildly speculate without a lick of evidence to back up the statement".

Again, none of this matters until April. Veteran players often have their own agenda in spring. It's about preparation, not production. It's not a problem until Perkins throws a 91 mph fastball in a regular season game. I'll be somewhat concerned if Perkins can't regularly hit 94 on March 25th. I'll be legitimately worried if he can't hit 94 on April 4th.

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mbqk5arB5a1qznndco1_500.gif

If he's hitting RHP anywhere near .800, that's a no-brainer. You keep that guy, especially given the makeup of the current Twins roster. I'm worried he might struggle to hit .700, not .800. He has looked various shades of terrible for quite some time now.

Absolutely, which is why I wouldn't give him a long leash, just one more opportunity to make good on his talent. To me, the difference between Arcia and Benson is that Arcia smacked around MLB pitching for quite some time while Benson stumbled before he even reached the majors. Yeah, Arcia's offense was offset by his horrible defense but still, a bench bat/spot starter with his potential has value to a contending team. Like I said earlier, I'd shoot for 100 plate appearances and then reevaluate (and that evaluation wouldn't be entirely based on numbers, it'd be more about his approach and attitude).

Yep. He's a potent bat off the bench, something the Twins have been lacking for years. Really, I'm pretty happy with how the bench looks to start the season. A capable catching backup in either Suzuki or Murphy, a speedy futility guy in Santana, a classic bench guy with a decent bat in Nunez, and a potent bat-first guy in Arcia. That's a decent bench and if any of those players were better at baseball, they'd be starting. There isn't a black hole guy anywhere on that list; each player has a useful tool that can help the team win ballgames if used correctly.

Giving up on Oswaldo Arcia in March of 2016 is the kind of thing that has a high probability of biting the team in the ass... Not to the level of David Ortiz - that's extremely rare - but Oswaldo could easily turn into an .800 OPS guy if he sorts out a few relatively minor issues (which seem to approach-related, not any kind of physical deficiency). He should get at least 100 PAs before the team considers cutting bait with him permanently.

That bullpen is fierce. It's borderline unfair. With that said, I take the under because I'm skeptical their offense can deliver. Last season, A-Rod and Beltran posted roughly 1000 PAs of .830 OPS ball. Mark Texiera posted roughly 450 PAs of .900 OPS ball. Those three players are older than dirt. I expect regression across the board with at least one devastating injury mixed in. It's hard to recover from that kind of loss. I don't think they'll be way under 85.5, maybe 81-83 wins.

I keep seeing people say they want Nolasco off the roster... Well, who do promote to replace him? Pat Dean? Does that matter? A bullpen isn't a group of seven guys who throw innings based on a hat draw. Guys have specified roles and the role slotted for Nolasco is not a role you'd give to Meyer, Burdi, or one of the other talented young arms. He's a three inning mop-up guy who might spot start in a pinch. I get that people dislike Nolasco but, come on... Booting him off the roster just for the sake of booting him off the roster is bad asset management.

I agree that civil rights, defense, etc. are federal issues. Those are universal issues that impact the entire country. Disclaimer for the rest of the post: I hate the south. I have since I was a child. It's my opinion they have continually dragged the rest of this country down and wasted vast resources fighting their largely backwards way of thinking about damned near everything. Give them what they want. Let them suffer the pain of state-run and -funded programs (or, in their case, lack thereof). Anyone who wants to leave, come on north. We'll accept you with open arms. Break the back of the south and once that is accomplished, then maybe we can actually move forward as a cohesive union. I look at places like Scotland and the stark differences between it and the American south are disheartening. Scotland is pure blue; they're all about workers' rights, democratizing equality, and all the other things you'd expect a bunch of blue collar citizens to fight for as a group. Then there's the American south, which routinely votes against its own damned interests as a population. Well, I say let them vote against their own interests. Let them see the folly of their decisions and suffer the consequences of it.

I believe this is how the US should implement damned near everything. We're a Republic, yet we routinely forget to take advantage of one of its biggest advantages: small scale experimentation.

I agree. I'm not even looking for a strict platoon; I'd be happy with occasionally rotating guys in and out of the lineup as it suits the team's needs. Outside of Sano, no hitter on this team is so good they can't sit occasionally against a weak side starter. After we've seen Dozier fade down the stretch in two consecutive seasons, it's pretty obvious he could use more breaks in the schedule. Santana doesn't seem to have a real strong/weak side split so maybe Molitor should think about trimming Dozier down to 145-150 games this season. He's not a big dude and a little rest certainly isn't going to hurt his power swing. Rest him against RHP when it makes sense. I'm going to be disappointed if we see the same lineup roll out for weeks on end. This team has flexibility right now... No, it's not the ideal form of flexibility but it's flexibility none-the-less. Use it to your advantage. That means everybody whose first name isn't Miguel either rotates around the diamond or gets a break once every week or two based on pitcher matchup.

Well, in a roundabout way, I did. The guy who hits for power and doesn't miss the ball when he swings at it is going to provide plenty of sacrifice flies when presented the opportunity to do so.

I agree that Santana should start the season on the roster but batting average is basically useless to use in isolation, especially in the case of Danny Santana. Santana will never repeat his 2014 BABIP, which directly led to that 2014 batting average. Santana swings and misses a lot. He doesn't walk often. He's a flawed hitter who doesn't show the signs you want to see from a hitting prospect. Kepler, on the other hand, was damned near immaculate last year. He didn't swing and miss. He drew loads of walks. The guy has a refined approach Santana will never replicate. Oh, and Max profiles to hit for modest power as well. In a nutshell, he's everything Danny Santana is not as a hitter. Santana MiLB BA: .276 Kepler MiLB BA: .280 Well, those are similar, right? Well, maybe not so much... Santana MiLB OBP: .319 Kepler MiLB OBP: .362 Okay, these players aren't very similar at all. One guy thinks about taking a walk every so often, the other guy goes to the plate with the intent of making the guy on the mound throw pitches. Santana MiLB SLG: .399 Kepler MiLB SLG: .445 (and a whopping .531 last season) Yeah, these players are vastly different. The guy who makes the pitcher pitch also punishes the ball when the pitcher fails to execute. And the coup de grace: Santana MiLB SO: once every 5.47 PAs Kepler MiLB SO: once every 6.34 PAs (once every 7.65 PAs last season) This is getting ridiculous. The guy who makes pitchers pitch and tattoos bad pitches also hits the ball when he swings at it. He's looking like a damned fine hitter at this point. The other guy, maybe not so much. Batting average is a bad statistic in isolation. Kepler is a vastly superior hitter to Santana and trended up in a huge way last season. If Max gets the call to Minnesota, he needs to start every day. Danny Santana is utility fodder and the Twins should treat him as such (which it appears they are doing).

God, yes. So many times this.

I think there's a good chance to end up with Burdi on the roster in May or June but frankly, there's zero reason to cut Nolasco in March of 2016 (and certainly not for Burdi). Nolasco is going to play the role of mop-up man; the one pitcher on the roster nobody cares about. And he has modest starter upside in case things go to pieces. He's a perfectly acceptable safety net in that role. Maybe he rebounds. Maybe he stinks and the Twins move on in June. Either situation is... *shrugs* Again, he's the mop-up man. Burdi and Nolasco are not interchangeable pieces on the roster. They're going to slot into vastly different roles that have little to no overlap. What's more likely is that Tonkin or Fien stinks and Burdi gets the nod to take their place early in the season.

I have nothing against Hicks but I just can't do it because: http://i.imgur.com/ie1u9YD.gif

I agree whole-heartedly that DH seems to be a natural fit for a platoon this season but this sentence does not compute:

I think it's pretty clear Buxton has pitch recognition problems. IMO, the debate should be whether he'd be better served by sorting out his issues in MLB under the tutelage of Bruno and MLB players or whether he should work on his issues in Rochester. Personally, I vacillate on Buxton. I can see a good argument for both sides of the debate.

Sure but that's one start. And lots of pitchers were awful against Toronto in the second half of last season. He was also pretty good against other competitive teams. There isn't enough data to draw any kind of objective conclusion.

Duffey is still a question mark but his September starts shouldn't be held against him. Two of his best starts came against the Angels and Astros, who were playing to win in September. Too few starts to draw a meaningful conclusion. It should be expected that he improved in September, as he was adjusting to playing in MLB. He had all of four non-September starts last season.

People were asking about Buxton vs. Hamilton speed. I provided an answer. And those aren't dash times. They're from the batter's box to first base and are actual baseball times that matter.