Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    32,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    328

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I know. Just throwing it back at ya.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Alright, where's that damned ban button?
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, it's been ugly... But most rational people thought that was a possibility going into the season. It was unlikely the guy was going to immediately thrive against vastly superior competition. He may need some time in Rochester.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, drop the Park talk. It's boring and annoying. The guy worked a good PA and then fouled out. It happens. At least it wasn't a damned strike out.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey, they backed into a run! Twins Baseball!
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    So over half this thread is ready to kick Park out the door based on less than 25 PAs. Step off the ledge, people.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm a bit surprised Eddie didn't swing there. The pitch was below the top of his helmet.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    AN EXTRA BASE HIT WITH A MAN ON BASE AM I DREAMING
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Why am I even subjecting myself to this? Is there something wrong with me?
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Holy moly.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I *hate* the use of the AB stat.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    And of course Buxton hit that right at a fielder.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    But even more than that, baseball is a game of probability. Is it more likely you'll need that fraction of a second or is it more likely you'll need your best hitter at the plate later in the game? Obviously, those percentages can and will change based on in-game circumstances but that should be the deciding factor.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, it's just Eddie being Eddie. His pitch zone % is actually six points higher than last season (43% last season, 49% this season).
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I was one of those people but in slight defense of Rosario, the kid brings it with the glove. That in itself means he won't go entirely 2015 Danny Santana on the team. The most concerning thing about Rosario is that he has doubled down on his worst habits thus far in 2016. Somehow, he's swinging even more often than he did last season and actually making contact less often.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    No one said it was. But seeing a 540 (!) point drop in OPS is bad luck and it can't be explained away by a 9% increase in strikeouts... Not even close.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    2015 Joe Mauer, 158 games: 0.3 fWAR 2016 Joe Mauer, 6 games: 0.4 fWAR
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure. I'm not arguing this team is a 90 win team but they're a hell of a lot better than they've shown on the scoreboard thus far. My biggest concern is that a luck-neutral Twins team isn't good enough to dig themselves out of what is rapidly becoming a very deep hole.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, I'm not sure sequencing is entirely accurate... But it's at least somewhat accurate. Maybe a team can be a few wins +/- their sequencing because of bullpen depth, smart hitting, whatever... But any disparity beyond a few percentage points has to be (at least in part) luck-based. Last year, the Twins had a very lucky May. It propelled what should have been a slightly under .500 team into the playoff hunt, despite the fact their luck ran out after May (and returned to neutral, IIRC). One lucky month kept a mediocre team "in it" until the end of the season. I merely hope the opposite doesn't come true in 2016. We could very well be looking at a team that misses postseason contention because they're a mediocre team that got really unlucky for a month of play. Basically, the exact opposite of what happened last season.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    It's what happens when a team posts an OPS of .850 with the bases empty. You'll get a lot of base runners that way.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Bases empty: 131 PAs, 37 SO, 28% K rate Runners on: 95 PAs, 35 SO, 37% K rate Obviously, it's horrible to K that often with runners on base but it's also a statistical aberration. Opposing pitchers don't have a magic "strikeout button" with runners on base. And a 9% K rate increase doesn't explain away 540 (!) points of OPS. 540 points of OPS is 1.1 Drew Buteras. Offensively, the Twins have been ridiculously unlucky. That will change. The only question in my mind is whether it can change quickly enough to salvage the season.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it doesn't. There is no statistical explanation for a team to OPS .850 with the bases empty and .350 with a runner on base. None. If a team strikes out so often to be a detriment, it will apply to all hitting situations, not just the situations that matter most.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Strikeouts may impact the ability to score runs by advancing runners (though that's not really backed by the numbers AFAIK) but it will not continue at this level... Nothing close to it. With the bases empty, the Twins are OPSing higher than Joe Mauer's career number. That's amazing. With runners on base, the Twins are OPSing at 67% of Drew Butera's career number. That's so bad it's, again, amazing... Albeit in a far less enjoyable manner.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, this season is quickly descending into the land of the ridiculous, pure Alice in Wonderland territory. Here are some things to mull over: 1. The Twins pitching staff has actually been pretty good. They're sporting a 4.11 ERA, good for 13th in all of baseball. Going into the season, that was "best case scenario" territory for me. If an AL team's pitching is in the top half of MLB, they're doing okay for themselves. 2. The Twins offense has an .858 OPS with the bases empty. That's good for third in all of baseball. Huzzah, amirite? 3. The Twins offense has a .335 OPS (WTF?!?!?!) with runners on base. Not RISP, just on base. As you can imagine, that's last in all of MLB because seriously. How can an entire team even do that? 4. Twins pitchers have allowed 53 hits, 22 walks, and given up 26 runs in the process. That seems reasonable. Roughly one out of three players to reach base end up crossing home plate. 5. Twins hitters have 45 hits, 18 walks, and have scored... just 12 times. That's absurd. One out of every 5-6 players to reach base is crossing home plate. To quote Ron Burgundy, "And you ate the whole... wheel of cheese? How'd you do that? Heck, I'm not even mad; that's amazing." Despite the painful first six games, this team hasn't been awful. They've been various shades of good, mediocre, and absolutely horrible in the clutch (both the bullpen and offense). That won't hold up forever, we simply need the team to right ship before this season is put to bed in mid-April. This entire situation is... just... weird.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    It's going to be really hard to win games if the "good half" of the bullpen blows every lead they receive.
×
×
  • Create New...