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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, all of us are disappointed but I think our expectations are partially to blame, along with the Twins themselves. When Buxton was demoted earlier in the season, I didn't want to see him again for at least two months. Give the guy a legit chance to succeed, for crying out loud. He was back up in what, 4-5 weeks? And then, when I disagreed with the promotion, I said "Okay, then let the kid work with Bruno and just hold your nose while it plays out. At this point, consistency is what matters most." And then he gets demoted again. Ugh. This team.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, sure. I'm not saying we shouldn't be concerned, only pointing out that things aren't hopeless. And given Buxton's raw talent, I still believe he ends up a success. I only hope it doesn't require four seasons to get there.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Whoa there, tiger. 1. Kohl Stewart may be many things but "soft-tossing" isn't one of them. 2. Tyler Jay is not a reliever. The Twins moved him to the bullpen to manage his workload for the last month of the season.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Look at that list of players who started their careers similarly to Buxton, though. It's near the bottom of the article. We should all be concerned about Byron but his struggles are not historically bad, as has been implied on this board far too often.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Ironically, craps isn't entirely random. That point has not been lost on me in this discussion. The likelihood of rolling a seven is far higher than rolling a two. I'm saying this because I enjoy confusing the situation.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    That's the problem with looking at individual players. You're using selection bias to form an opinion. There's a huge middle ground between "draft perfectly based on future outcome" and "complete randomness". And the draft resides somewhere between those two points and more toward "draft perfectly" than "random", as shown in those data tables. That doesn't mean it's impossible for Mike Trout to be selected in the 20s but it means you're more far likely to get Bryce Harper at #1 than Mike Trout at #22.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    In short, I believe the mistake people are making here is viewing the draft with tunnel vision. Yes, some players picked after, for example, Byron Buxton have outperformed him thus far. But that's ignoring the swath of players who have not outperformed Buxton. The latter number is far larger than the former. Besides, looking at one player is the wrong way to go about an analysis of something as large as the MLB draft. The only way the draft can be analyzed is in the aggregate. Picking and choosing individual players leads to, well, cherry-picking. Only when viewed as a whole do we see the overall picture. And that picture is pretty clear. The further you are up the draft ladder, the more likely you are to find a quality player.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    No, that's not a crapshoot. Just because the "best" players aren't picked in successive order does not automatically mean random chance is the only remaining option. Mike posted this but edited the post so I'm going to throw it up again: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/ Any single player can bust. No one is disputing that point. But in the aggregate, the top five picks are consistently better and bust less frequently. 6-10 are a notch below that but still outperform 11-15. As you carry that down the chain, the numbers begin to bunch together, which implies more (but not complete) randomness (ie. a "crapshoot"). You can make the argument that once you get past pick 15, it becomes more of, but not a total, crapshoot. As you approach the second round, it's so close that randomness becomes a larger factor. But we shouldn't conflate the value of pick 6 and pick 17, as that wrongly implies both have an equal chance of success. They don't. As shown in those tables, there is a clear downward trend from pick one to pick 50, where the list stops. In no situation has a lower pick outperformed a higher pick in the aggregate, which means the draft cannot be random.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh, yeah. Of course. But that doesn't mean pick 19 is the same "crapshoot" as pick 2.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a partial crapshoot. My problem with the analysis is that it's lumping the first three picks in with the rest of the first round. Those first 2-3 picks are far more reliable than the rest.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Dude, Tallion isn't struggling. He has 50 IP and looks pretty solid thus far. He had a 3.49 ERA in MiLB with a 2.4 BB rate and an 8.5 K rate.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Whoa, I don't understand how you're parsing this data. At #1, we have a generational player with 21 career WAR. At #2, we have a rookie with 50 IP. Time will tell there but he's looking solid thus far. At #3, we have a great player with 23 career WAR. Then you drop four spots to illustrate the point. Then you drop another six. Then ten. Then twelve. Don't you see the problem here? You're bunching the top 2-3 picks together and then skipping 5-7 picks down the chain to find success stories. Those skipped players count, too.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    That doesn't look like a crapshoot at all. At #1, you have a legit superstar in the making. At #2, you have an immensely talented player who is scuffling now but can easily become a star in time. Then you drop a full nine places. At #11, you have a guy whose future is bright but it's not like he's destroying the world with his 97 OPS+ and 3-ish WAR. Then you drop another eight places. At #19, you have a guy who is having a fantastic season. What about the other 14 draft picks that fell between #3-19? Saying it's a crapshoot because random first-round guys thrive down the list isn't great analysis in my opinion. It's discarding the vast majority of draftees and ignoring the talent of the top two draft picks because 12.5% of picks #3-19 look good.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    "Probably needs to play" is the wrong wording. "Likely to play" is a better way to put it. Escobar is the only guy on the roster who can handle short without making our eyes bleed. He's not playing well this year but rated well in the past two seasons. He also hits enough where he's not a drag on the team and occasionally, is actually above average overall. In a perfect world, that's your utility guy... But given the rest of the roster, the only way I see Escobar not playing shortstop is if the Twins pick up an external shortstop... Given how they have other, bigger problems on the roster and the fact Gordon should be in Chattanooga next season, I think that's unlikely.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    God, I completely forgot about Jeb. I was talking about Rubio in my post. Yeah, so two guys in Florida who pretty much hate Donald Trump.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It's surreal that the two most influential swing states in the country - Florida and Ohio - have powerful Republicans who could swing the states toward Trump, yet one has what is possibly Trump's most vocal opponent (maybe Romney is more vocal but it's close) and the other has a guy whose support for Trump can only be labeled as "tepid" if I'm feeling extremely generous. Good lord, Trump is a buffoon.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    A fair point. The rust belt is appealing to Trump and can swing an election... But given how much Kasich and Trump hate each other, that's going to be a tough sell for voters. Again, I see a lot of this cancelling itself out because Trump is arrogant and not very bright. Had he simply not declared thermonuclear war on Kasich, his chances would be so much better. That's an extremely low bar to set but Trump can't even manage that much.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm kind of leaning toward this angle myself. I think Bruno gets some blame, as we saw Buxton arrive with a leg kick that promptly disappeared. What the hell happened there and why? But Byron is missing key fundamentals that should be ingrained in him at this point in his career. For example, bunting. I mean, COME ON. Never mind that his swing should be much more consistent than it has been thus far, which I believe is more the fault of the MiLB staff than Bruno (though, again, he also gets some of the blame).
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Eek, I don't know but I learn toward "no". 1. Plouffe isn't worth $9m to the Twins, which is about what he'd cost next year. 2. Sano needs to play the field and Plouffe has no positional flexibility that isn't covered by several other players on the roster. 3. Polanco needs to play. That can happen through a Dozier trade but I think that's unlikely. 4. Escobar probably needs to play, which means at least one, probably two, players need to go this offseason.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this is my feeling as well. The GOP base - the people who participate in the primaries - have so tightly strapped themselves onto the front of the train heading to CrazyTown that I think we're putting too much stock into the rest of America being equally insane. I struggle to buy into the idea that there are huge swathes of untapped American votes that are buying into Trump's platform. I think he already tapped that card in the primaries. And now he's alienating pretty much everyone else. I expect the GOP to come around a bit as the election nears but I can't see a situation where Trump recovers 100% of the traditional GOP vote. I keep bringing up Mormons - a relatively small subset of the GOP base - but they're one of many and I'm watching their vitriol first-hand. I lived in Utah in middle school and I'm still friends with many Mormons on Facebook. To a person, they don't only dislike Trump, they despise the man. Out of a half dozen Mormons I've seen talk about the man, every one of them has mentioned how they refuse to vote for him and they're exploring third party options (or even, gasp, Hillary Clinton). If Trump has alienated even 10%, much less 20%, of the traditional GOP base, this election is going to be a landslide. This entire situation is such a mess.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Between Polanco and Escobar, I think the Twins have enough athleticism to cover third base. Though any move of that kind puts short in a dicey situation.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't go quite that far. I'd say it matters less if you're picking 4-15 but those first 2-3 picks are usually the cream of the crop, the guys most likely to succeed. After that, it becomes more nebulous, with quick-to-rise college players dicing with rougher prep guys.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I noticed that this morning while checking stats. The difference between Miguel's 2015 and 2016 is a handful of walks and a few doubles. Big deal.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I assume you're talking about Harrison? He'd go no higher than low A in 2017. He might jump all the way to AA in 2018 but that's unlikely, as teams often retard their catching prospects a bit to make sure they have a grip on the fundamentals. The very earliest we'd see him is halfway through the 2019 season, probably more likely the 2020 season. I'm all in favor of the Twins patching their catching situation but that's a long-term concept. We'd see the guy right as Sano and possibly Buxton are hitting arbitration. He might not even be any good until 2021-22. That's a long time from now.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    We shouldn't care about the 2017 draft too much. This isn't a Twins team that is thriving on the performances of 30+ year old players. They're winning ballgames from the performance of a bunch of pre-arb guys, many of them below age 25. If someone is hoping to see the Twins tank, they're also hoping a bunch of young players fall on their face, limiting the team's ability to compete in both 2017 and 2018. That seems... Backwards.
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