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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I see no reason for Gordon to repeat high A. He played all of 2016 in high A and had the best season of his career, though not by a lot (but once you adjust for the Florida league, the gap widens a bit and it's clearly his best season). He should be a shoo-in for Chattanooga to open the season.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Don't be such a bleeding heart. It's a well-established fact that the only way to prevent children from growing up to become our enemies is to tell them they're not welcome and that they are our enemies.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    True. But it's interesting that they have so few ports that open directly to an ocean. The contiguous USA is much smaller than Russia and we have more major ports than I can count on three different sides of the nation.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    For a county as gargantuan as Russia, it's interesting how few easily-accessible ports they have as a nation. I mean, they have St. Petersburg and... can I count St Petersburg twice?
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the entire point of the Russo-Japanese war was to stop the Russians from getting a foothold in the Pacific. They badly wanted to open that side of the world, as their country spans all of Asia but they've never been able to do much with the Pacific side of the nation. And while that war happened under the Czarist regime, it's basically impossible to believe Stalin - possibly the biggest prick in a war full of legendary pricks - didn't want the same thing the Czars failed to achieve 40 years earlier.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough, that's why I typed the bolded. I hoped it would convey my general point that De Leon's 2017 was not the be all, end all of his career. "If De Leon is a negative WAR player in 2017 or back in the minors, Falvey was (likely) right. Final judgment on De Leon will take time."
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Are you kidding me? I hammered at the Jackson/Trump comparison for months as a reason to never, ever vote for Trump. Andrew Jackson was a bad, bad man. And I'm not even talking about his military actions before he became president. He was a lying, awful toad of a human being.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I try not to discuss the bullpen, per therapist orders.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I think De Leon's performance in 2017 very much matters, as he's entering his age 24 season and will likely spend most or all of 2017 on an MLB roster. To put it differently, does Jose Berrios' 2017 matter? Of course it does, and Berrios is a full two years younger than De Leon. If either player stumbles badly in 2017, does it mean their career is over? No, definitely not... But if a 24 year old pitching prospect posts 100+ really bad innings, that prospect's future is rightly called into question. As for Dozier, his 2017 performance isn't about drawing fans (well, probably not, anyway), it's about establishing future value. Another 5 WAR season out of Dozier and we'll no longer be squabbling whether he's the 7th or 9th best second baseman in the game, we'll be arguing whether he's the 2nd or 3rd best second baseman in the game. The only knock on Dozier right now is that he's coming off a career year. If he storms out out of the gate in 2017, that's no longer in question and no one will be able to deny he's one of the best middle infielders in all of baseball. And that means Dozier is worth a hell of a lot, even if he's down to 1.5 years of controlled service time.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, if we're looking at it from the Dodgers' perspective, we have to include potential outcomes from Forsythe. They have different outcomes where they could be wrong, which actually may be more likely to happen, as Dozier is a consensus superior player to Forsythe.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    One thing I think we all can (or at least should) agree on: This is the first test of Falvey and Levine. The trade, for good or bad, did not happen. Now we get to see if they were right or wrong. - If Dozier is a 5 WAR player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was right. - If De Leon is a negative WAR player in 2017 or back in the minors, Falvey was (likely) right. Final judgment on De Leon will take time. - If Dozier is a .700 OPS player in 2017 (or on his way at the break), Falvey was wrong. - If De Leon is a 4 WAR player in 2017, Falvey was wrong. Of course, there are combinations that muddy the situation (a good/good or bad/bad outcome) but overall, the scouting and decision-making acumen of Falvey and Levine should make themselves apparent in relatively short order. That will not definitively declare whether they're awesome or terrible at their jobs but they'll be the first real indications of what to expect in coming years.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    We'd all be here arguing about whether he even had a phone number for the Dodgers or the ability to operate a phone.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It would require Santana to repeat, Gibson to not be terrible again, and for May and Berrios to be somewhere around league average. I'm... not confident in predicting that to happen.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    For the record, in no way am I projecting De Leon as a #4. I'm questioning whether the Twins view him that way, which is very possible when you consider De Leon's makeup versus what Falvey built in Cleveland. We simply don't know. There are so many moving parts and different takes in these situations and we just don't have the data points on Falvey or Levine to make anything resembling an accurate call with any kind of certainty.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that bickering over the definition of #2/#3 is pointless but there's a pretty sizable gap between #2 and #4, which is what we're seeing with De Leon. Really, my point is that the Twins might view De Leon as a #4 guy, which explains why Dozier is still with the Twins. We simply don't know. And any way you shake it, if a team is offering what you perceive to be a #4 starter for Brian Dozier, you pass and take your chances with Dozier's 2017 and hope for the best.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I believe teams make their own luck to an extent but if it was a repeatable skill, pythag and BaseRuns wouldn't yo-yo up and down from season to season. But that's exactly what happens every year. You roll out a team with the same manager and core and they're +6 pythag one season, -4 pythag the next.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I look at this roster and see a team that could win 60 games or a team that could win 80 games depending how I squint at them. As is often the case with a team full of second- and third-year players whose performance has been middling. Sometimes, a bunch of those players click and the team surprises the hell out of everyone. Sometimes, those players bomb out of MLB or stumble for another year and you get a 100 loss season. Most of the time, a few players succeed, a few fail, and the team is bad but not terrible. The Twins aren't the 2011 Astros, where they threw the rookies to the wolves and racked up losses. In fact, will the Twins even leave Spring Training with a rookie on the roster (excluding the pen)? Most of their players are entering the "put up or shut up" phase of their careers, somewhere between 400-1000 PAs.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    We have no idea the Twins are wrong. De Leon is (likely) not an ace. People can't even agree if he's a #2 starter. My problem with most of this Dozier trade discussion is that we're projecting our analysis of De Leon and accepting it as fact. Here's what we actually know about De Leon: 1. Scouting reports are somewhat mixed on the guy. Some (Cameron) are really bullish on him, projecting him to possibly be a #2 starter. Others dismiss him as a #4 guy whose stuff won't flourish in MLB. Lots of analysts are somewhere in between. Overall, he's a (mostly) consensus top 50 guy but there's a significant difference between a #2 and a #4 starter. 2. The Dodgers were willing to trade De Leon but it appears they labeled other prospects untouchable. That could be a matter of 2017 roster construction or it could be that Friedman simply doesn't like De Leon that much and viewed him as the most expendable piece of the system. 3. None of the above matters one lick to the Twins, who have their own value set for both Dozier and De Leon. Given Falvey's accolades for Cleveland pitching success and his tendency to go with live arms who touch mid-90s, it's possible (maybe likely) the Twins were moderately down on De Leon, a guy who sits 91-92.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you missed the most important part of whether the Twins lose 100 games or not: Are they unlucky again? Because not only would it require many of the things you listed to fall under 63 wins again, it'd require another dose of pretty awful luck and sequencing. Pythag had the 2016 Twins at 97 losses. BaseRuns had the 2016 Twins at "just" 91 losses. It's pretty hard to lose 100 games in back-to-back seasons unless you're trying to lose 100 games, as the Astros did in the early 2010s. Had the Twins liquidated Santana and Dozier (and to a lesser extent, Kintzler, Gibson, et al) for MiLB talent, 100 losses would look more likely but they didn't do that.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, Americans tend to forget that in 1904 and 1905, the Japanese and Russians fought a war that rather humiliated the Russians (and also spurred along many of the the later problems in Japanese society that caused WWII). The Russians would have loved to take another swing at Japan.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair. The Allies dragged their feet before staging the Normandy invasion... But we're talking a few months, which didn't drastically change casualties in the grand scheme of things. And we still may have won the race to Berlin if not for Montgomery and the botched Market Garden assault.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It wasn't strategic, it was timing. Hitler declared war on the USSR six months before Pearl Harbor. By the time the US was actually mobilizing troops, the Germans were in the USSR and storming toward Moscow. The Battle of Stalingrad, the most brutal conflict of the entire war, ended in 1943, before the US and Brits even won the war for Northern Africa. After which, the US had to then get a toehold in Italy via Sicily and then fight their way up Italy. The Soviets and Germans were still scrapping this entire time, except now the Soviets were winning. And we hadn't even defeated Italy yet. It's still 1943 at this point. By the time we landed in Normandy in June of '44, the Soviets were routing the Germans and pushing toward eastern Europe. At that point, it became a footrace to Berlin. The European war was over 8-ish months later. It shouldn't be surprising so many Germans were killed by the Soviets. The Soviets and Germans were the only two forces that had non-stop, bloody ground conflict against one another for four years running. And the Soviets were absolutely brutal to the Germans. No prisoners, death marches, the whole nine yards. We returned loads of POWs to Germany after their surrender. Russia, not so much. And that's not even counting how so many Germans "died at the hands of Russians" due to Hitler's ineptitude and pushing so far beyond his supply chain and offering no option for support or retreat as his troops slowly starved in a wasteland.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Damn. Bummer. But it gives me a bit of comfort that Falvey may have tried his best to make a deal happen with a return he felt was fair for Dozier.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd try like hell to trade the guy but I don't trade out of fear of a guy walking after his contract expires. If a year of Dozier is more valuable to the team than what he nets in trade, then keep the guy. I'm generally not a fan of letting a player walk without some kind of compensation but sometimes it's the most logical move to make.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    If Dozier posts another 35+ homer season, the market will adjust. Right now, it can be argued 2016 was an outlier season. Two 2016 seasons and it's no longer an outlier. And if no one will bite on Dozier after he smacks 75+ homers over two seasons, then you keep the guy and find a different way to improve the rotation. The on-field product matters to every team. If Dozier is more valuable than the return, then you keep the guy.
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