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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Over the past few weeks, I've seen at least a dozen people call this offseason a failure, make comments such as "why'd they even fire Terry Ryan?", and find other ways to slam the new front office.
  2. Sure, even I admit I'm a little disappointed. But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".
  3. Nailed it. It's okay to be a bit disappointed that the front office hasn't been more active. Motion creates a sense of accomplishment. But sometimes, that accomplishment turns sour once players take the field. I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of action - mainly surrounding Dozier - but I'm willing to give the front office more than three months before declaring they've somehow failed at their jobs. Lots of moving pieces, lots of background work and analysis we don't see, and lots of future plans we don't know about. What the front office does from April-September is far more important that what they've done (or haven't done) from November-January.
  4. Hey, it's not like anyone listened to me when I screamed "Buy Facebook and T-Mobile!" Or when I hung in there with Netflix.
  5. Not even close to betting the farm on them. I have right around $2k into them and my initial $1k investment was bought around $10/share so I'm already up quite a bit on that investment. I don't think they'll be a huge growth stock but they have the potential to become a fixture in the small business market. Not only are their point of sale systems better than most of the competition, their lending programs are pretty great. If Square ever decides to move in this direction, they could decimate the restaurant business with a few software updates. I've set up traditional POS systems in restaurants. It's absurd what they cost to install, how outdated the hardware is out of the box, and how unnecessarily complex all of it is. A $15k restaurant system could be replaced with $5k of hardware and Square. All Square needs to do is change how they control communication between devices and add more complex printing options, really.
  6. Well, I'm glad I waited out Apple. Their shares jumped over 6% after yesterday's report and I just sold half my shares (35). Reinvested the money into AT&T (dividends, mainly), Microsoft (modest dividend and more growth than Apple, IMO), and Square (wanted to aim for a riskier growth stock with the remaining money).
  7. Not saying it was a horse race, I'm saying many pollsters thought it was a horse race going into the last week of the campaign. My point was that pollsters are often off by 2-3% based on inaccuracies and late shifts in the population. Just last election, they underestimated the Democrat, not the Republican. It goes both ways. Here's the poll tracker for the 2012 election: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
  8. Thise same pollsters had a horse race betweeen Romney and Obama and it was a 4% gap on Election Day. The pollsters weren't that far off on Clinton. Most had her around 4% before the election and she actually won at 2.1%. Some pollsters were closer in 2016 than they were in 2012. That's well within the margin of error, the distribution is what gave Trump the presidency.
  9. Eh, I don't buy that at all. Trump didn't win the election because people liked him, he won because people hated his opponent equally... and Trump still lost the popular vote by over 2%. We're talking about a president who barely scraped together 46% of the vote and, since entering the White House, has committed a multitude of moves that are questionable to everyone but his base. Roughly 17-18% of all Americans voted for Donald Trump in November and even the Koch brothers are lining up squarely against him right now. Is it really surprising that a bunch of people disapprove of his actions as president thus far?
  10. Sure, there are always people out there who approve of "their guy". But, again, this is not normal. Nothing about this is normal. http://fortune.com/2017/01/29/donald-trump-approval-rating-gallup/ Fortune isn't exactly a liberal haven and they do a pretty good job of explaining out how unusual it is for a president's disapproval rating to spike before he's been in office even two weeks.
  11. He's a lefty and can hold a glove. It makes sense to get him some reps at the position.
  12. Yeah, and that's not even bringing up Palka, who may be an interesting rookie replacement at DH if both Vargas and Park fail.
  13. It's not really surprising to me. The only thing I find surprising is how fast and furious it's all coming. I thought Bannon was smarter than this.
  14. For good or bad, both of those guys had the popular vote on their side. Trump acts as if he had a decisive victory yet lost the vote by 3m people.
  15. My thoughts exactly. Our best chances lay in Trump and Bannon overplaying their hand. Last night, I said to my wife "Could this go any worse for Trump? If he tried what he's trying over a calendar year, he might have gotten away with it."
  16. I suspect that if the Twins have a player a team needs at the deadline, the opposing GM will still pick up the phone and have a five minute conversation to figure out if they're even close to being on the same page.
  17. I drew this today out of frustration. I figured some of you would enjoy it: http://schlockworks.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/001-wrong-side-of-history.jpg
  18. Well, they were in a pennant chase. They were still in it until the last series of the season. Had they acquired another bullpen arm before Perkins' disastrous All-Star Break collapse (when they lost three or four games in the 8th/9th over the course of two weeks), they're probably in it until the very end and maybe get into the WC game. That's why I understood the move in 2015. But, again, there was no excuse for 2016.
  19. This was, in my opinion, our best event yet. Not only was the crowd huge (with lots of local writers and journalists in the mix, thanks for making an appearance) but Jack Goin was a fantastic guest and LaTroy killed it up there. It was the perfect mix of guests, in my opinion. Goin gave us statheads analytic insight into the front office and LaTroy was hilarious with his on-field stories from his long career. His AJ Piersynski bit almost had me in tears.
  20. I didn't love the decision to put May in the pen in 2015 but I understood the reasoning. The Twins were contending and they badly needed bullpen arms. But there was no excuse for 2016 to happen. I'm glad to see May going into Spring Training as a starter.
  21. Yeah, but the Twins weren't exactly helping him by telling him where he'd be playing with any kind of certainty. Sano gets some of the blame for not getting into shape but the Twins get some of the blame for not clearly defining his role.
  22. To be clear, I'm 100% against a De Leon - Dozier straight swap. My point is that comparing De Leon to Meija is a really bad comp. A really bad comp. Would anyone compare Berrios to Meija?
  23. It's certainly a risk. Sano is entering his third season. But there are arms on the way: Stewart, Jay, Romero, Thorpe, Gonsalves. The problem is that most of them aren't terribly exciting arms.
  24. I just don't see the point in acquiring a DH. Between Sano, Mauer, Park, and Vargas there are enough bats to cobble together a DH rotation. I'd like to enter the break with more longterm roster clarity. I want to see what the Twins have in Park and Vargas so they can either be pencilled in for 2018 or off the roster entirely.
  25. Sure, but that's a gross oversimplification of the situation. De Leon only has a mid-rotation ceiling if you ignore the Dave Camerons of the world, who are much higher on him. The consensus is that De Leon has a much higher chance of being a valuable MLB arm than does Adalberto Meija.
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