Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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I wasn't trying to call you out or anything, as your response was more tepid than most... just pointing out that I wasn't exactly thrilled with the trade (in your defense, neither were you). As I said in the following post: "Time may tell us the smart move was to DFA Nolasco and call it a day."
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If he didn't want to answer the question, there's a really easy solution to that problem: Don't field the question. -
It's a circular statement, that's why it's lazy. Q: "The Twins are predicted to have a terrible RoS, which is based on runs scored/allowed and sequencing. What would make that change going forward?" A: "Their current runs scored/allowed and sequencing has been terrible." It's not even a ****ing answer.
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I think I would from casual observation. I've looked at Gray's numbers and O.co hasn't been a big boon to him, surprisingly. But I don't believe I've actually watched him pitch this year so I'm just looking at a stat line. If there are better targets out there than Gray, maybe I'd change my mind.
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And the Lazy Answer Champion Award goes to...
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If Gray could be had for Gordon and Gonsalves, I'd do that trade for sure. My problem is that Beane may ask for more. At that point, I'd have to hesitate.
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For the record, I wasn't sold on the trade. Here is my first post in response to the news: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23418-article-twins-trade-nolasco-meyer-cash-to-angels-for-hector-santiago/?p=524494 I gave the trade a C+ while many raved about it. I had concerns about giving up Meyer when people were thrilled at the dumping of Nolasco, which I didn't really care about much. For an additional record, Dave gave the trade a B in the very same thread.
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On that we don't really disagree, which is why I wasn't crazy about the trade in the first place.
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We're basically having two discussions here. This is my point: Meyer has had a string of somewhat successful starts, buoyed by a single stellar (1 BB, 9 K) start against the legendary Royals offense, the least patient team in all of baseball. Their offense is, simply put, incompetent (last in the AL in OPS). He had what, at a glance, appeared to be an acceptable start against the Dodgers, which was primarily fueled by dumb luck (Dodgers are 3rd in NL in OPS, yet Meyer somehow lucked his way through one hit in 6 IP, despite walking 5 batters). One cannot expect to walk five Dodgers in 6 IP and expect success very often. Los Angeles will crush a starter in that situation far more often than not. Alex Meyer, as it stands today, is still too wild to last in an MLB rotation for a full season. He can't regularly walk 4+ guys and expect success against MLB offenses. Half of his June starts have included 4+ free passes.
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His BABIP is on the low side but not unreasonably so. My point wasn't about his overall BABIP, it was about the tendency of a starter to get absolutely killed out there if the BABIP gods frown upon him when he's the type of pitcher who regularly issues four free passes a start. Overall, Meyer might be able to hold his own in a rotation but if he regularly gets taken out of a game after 3 innings, no MLB team will leave him in the rotation for prolonged periods of time. The amount of damage done to a bullpen in those types of games is very large, as we've seen with the Twins this season. At some point, if the team has another option, even a less talented but more reliable one, they will likely go that route. Again, I hope Meyer succeeds, but I think the chances of it are pretty low unless he starts throwing a lot more strikes.
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See, I think Meyer's floor is a lot lower than that. He's a more extreme version of a guy like Mejia, who I also question ever becoming a legitimate MLB starter. Having a starter regularly go
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Where he's still walking roughly 15% of batters faced? Meyer may be getting along with some decent at-a-glance stats but that strike percentage needs to rise and the walk percentage needs to drop if he's going to have prolonged success, particularly as a starter. And I hope he does that because I want to see the guy succeed, I'm just trying to be realistic about his chances. Command and control have always been issues with the guy and he's now 27 years old. It's likely this is who he is going forward, which will make him a very volatile pitcher. Even with his stuff, he can't have outings where he walks 5 guys. That will kill a starting over the course of a season. Look at his last start against the Dodgers. 5 BB, 4 K, 1 H. He got through 6 IP with 99 pitches. Sure, he gave up 0 ER but that's the kind of start that puts me on edge. He got 18 outs, only four of which came via strike out. That means one out of 14 batters who put wood on the ball reached base safely. That simply will not happen with any kind of regularity. Starters who walk just shy of one guy per inning are going to get burned, especially if they're not striking out more than one guy per inning. BABIP will bite him in the ass if he keeps this up.
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I wasn't factoring in his health, only his pitching profile. He's still walking an absurd amount of batters and no MLB starter will succeed in the long term by walking two batters every three innings. Remember, I'm one of the people who didn't care for the Nolasco trade because I wasn't ready to give up on Meyer, particularly just to shed Nolasco's relatively short contract term. Most of the board was joyous over the trade and I simply didn't get it. But other than health - which is obviously important - I don't see anything in Meyer's profile that has changed my opinion it's highly unlikely he will become a proficient MLB starter. If he figures out how to walk two fewer batters per nine innings, then maybe he takes a step forward. The guy's BB% is a tick over 15%. No pitcher can succeed with that number, I don't care if he's striking out 35% of batters faced, which Meyer is not. If Meyer gets that BB rate down a bit, maybe he's a good bullpen piece but I don't see a scenario where he's walking that many guys, getting pulled in the fifth inning of half his games, and succeeding as a starter.
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It's certainly possible but it makes me like the move a hell of a lot less if that's the case. If there's a decent chance of Melotakis being a serviceable arm this season, you keep that guy. Time will tell, I suppose.
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No, I read it that way as well. I struggle to believe Berrios will be a top 30/40 guy at any point. Top 50-60? Yeah, maybe. Something in the mold of a Matt Garza, if not a little better and possibly without the injury difficulties at a relatively young age. Berrios has been a model of health since he was drafted.
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Whoa. That's bullish. I love Berrios and have since I started reading about his work ethic after the draft but I don't know if I could put him in top 30-40 status.
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I'd be more inclined to agree if the Twins bullpen didn't so closely resemble a tire fire. If there was *any* hope Melotakis could be an asset this season, I don't see the front office putting him through the waiver process.
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In my opinion, that's just about the perfect answer to that question. If the team wants to pursue someone like Sonny Gray (just an example), good on them. If they want to give up someone like Gonsalves for a three month rental, not so good on them. The team isn't at that point.
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It's possible they gamed MLB with the DFA but it doesn't make much sense. The Twins need bullpen arms and if you think Melotakis might be a bullpen arm in six weeks, why run the risk of a DFA? Because, even if you succeed, then you just have to add Mason back to the 40-man in six weeks, largely negating any benefit you received from the DFA.
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How Fast Is Byron Buxton?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Their methodology is completely broken. Until they measure how quickly Buxton can run in a three-legged sock hop with Max Kepler, this means nothing. -
I don't see them DFAing Melo if it's an aberration, unfortunately. If this is something that could disappear at any time, why run the risk of putting the guy through waivers? That's an asset you wait out for a month or two because there's some upside in his arm.
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I think it's safe to say absolutely nothing has changed about Alex Meyer. Maybe he figures it out at some point but we're talking about a guy who is 27 years old. It's becoming more unlikely by the day that he will amount to anything. Bummer.
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Of course we're supposed to discuss moves the Twins make, it'd just be nice if we could leave descriptors like "clueless" out of the discussion when discussing a brand new front office. This is Twins Daily, not RubeChat. We should demand better of ourselves from both sides of the argument. And most posters in this thread were better than that.
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Yeah, I think the stocks will rebound but it would have taken at least a week, maybe more to get back where I was. Amazon and Google took a drubbing and they were two of my larger investments.
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Man, I chose the right day to bail out of the market. Had I not cashed out on Friday, I'd be down more than a grand in total value right now. Spent the past several days trying to figure out how to get my money out of my stock account. Finally got the money into my bank today and called the bank to ask if there was a maximum payment limit on bill pay. They said there was not. Well, there is. It's $10k a day. So it'll take me a week to finish off the mortgage. Oh well. Progress!
